Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Essential Research maintains its trademark consistency on voting intention, and asks the best-framed set of polling questions yet to emerge on the AWU matter.

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:

• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).

• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.

• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.

There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.

UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).

Preselection mail:

• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.

• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.

Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.

• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.

Queensland Qorner:

• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.

• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.

Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.

• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.

• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.

• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,368 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 88 of 88
1 87 88
  1. guytaur@4351

    I think Hartcher was drinking something. He has written an article I think Bludgers will like to a degree.

    Yes, someone must have slipped him a mickey finn.

    And with regard to finding the money for the NDIS, it has to be found, one way or the other.

    Maybe we might have to, horror horror, cut middle class welfare so people do not have to wait five years for an electric wheelchair.

  2. Puff

    Funding the NDIS is easy when you make it a priority. Its what you cut that is hard for a politician. It will have to be more than just Middle Class Welfare.

    I think also the welfare of subsidies on Fossil Fuels will complete the numbers, However know I could well be wrong as I am not up on the numbers completely.

    If Hartcher is right in his prediction of the mining boom ending. (I am not so sure with China and India needing resources.) I think the Pacific Highway funding and High Speed Trains will suffer.

    Labor will cut Social Security, Health and Education last.

  3. I think this Christmas card designed for the Merseyside Police is lovely.

    [BluesAndTwosArt ‏@BluesAndTwosArt

    We’ve just designed @MerseyPolice 2012 Xmas Card. What do you think? ]

  4. [A receptionist at the private hospital which treated the Duchess of Cambridge has died in a suspected suicide – two days after being duped by an amateurish hoax from an Australian radio station.

    The woman’s unconscious body was found at an address yards away from King Edward VII Hospital, where she worked, just before 9.30am today.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook ]

  5. At the very best of times, I’d wait for confirmation from an independent source before I believed anything I read in the Daily Mail. Anyway, for what it’s worth at this stage …

    [Media Guido ‏@MediaGuido

    Sky now reporting it is a nurse and not the receptionist. ]

  6. Still the jungle drums rumble, to use an old Tarzan analogy.
    (Mine in brackets)
    [In fact, on the Ashby matter, I was wondering why are we yet to see all the texts allegedly from Christopher Pyne regarding Ashby? I am well aware of their (alleged) existence as are may others I know, and I am aware of what is allegedly in them, and I wonder why we are yet to see them all over the front page of the papers? They do make for some eye-opening insights to say the least if they are proven to be true. I thought someone would be rushing to be first with the story, but alas it seems they would rather search in vain for non-existent evidence on the PM than use what they already (allegedly) have on an opposition front bencher. From what I’ve heard Pyne (allegedly) must be very nervous indeed.]

  7. Sydney Radio is certainly a noxious swamp with some awful people in it

    Sandilands…Jones..and now this silly pair…whose careers are hopefully over ..and on hopes this may lead to some more stringent controls on Radio in Glitter City
    but why is it ???

  8. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, December 3, 2012 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

    “On the AWU matter, I have heard from someone with links to the Liberal-National Party in Queensland that there is still one document to be released by Ralph Blewitt that will result in a slam dunk against the Prime Minister.

    Christ! How many times have we heard Julia is for the chop, slam-dunk or whatever?

    And from a pissant like Blewitt?

    I doubt it.]

    The definition of stupidity is to do the same thing twice and expect a different outcome. The Liberals have been around that tree so many times their stupidity is getting is getting hard to take.

Comments Page 88 of 88
1 87 88

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *