The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
Marrickville Mauler,
I agree 1000% with what you have said, but there is one special thing about THAT speech:
It was off the cuff.
Sure, Ms Gillard had the data, and scribbled busily as Mr Abbott was speaking, but it was not scripted. It was from the heart, from the gut, raw, and that’s why it bit.
With Bemused it’s “Porn goes the Weasel”.
I can’t imagine anyone eating their ear-wax. I just can’t. It’s not called wax for nothing. It’s not worth tasting because of it’s name.
So, I find the ear-wax-eating episode beyond putrid.
I find the ear-wax-eating episode a reason to despise the Opposition.
Do we have to tell of Opposition members who sniff their fingers after they’ve tested whether the toilet paper worked or not . . .
really7
It’s just beyond the pale.
TLBD @ 4299,
On the contrary, I’m delighted that I have historical and etymological support!
Greensborough Growler@4302
Is porn another of your perversions along with your coprophilia?
[bemused
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 11:36 pm | PERMALINK
rummel@4295
Lib add for hendy on the TV now……. March election coming.
How is that going to come about?
No way.]
No way Swan and Gillard will go to the next election with a failed surplus promis. March 2nd it will be.
rummel@4306
In your dreams.
Bemused # 4300 – agree. The tory tools are not in a position to call an election FFS!
They and the (increasingly unemployed) MSM (reap what you sow, suckers) have tried and failed to produce one, in the longest dummy spit in australian political history. Not happening. Government is governing, delivering on all sorts of agendas, why on earth would they stop now? You just don’t declare on 449-0 bills passed if the match can run for 8-10 months yet
I was chatting to my aunt on the phone at lunchtime. She rang to ask me how to organise the letter from the queen for a rellie that turns 100 next year. She knew I had the internet and asked my to find out.
Turns out you need to approach either your local member or senator to organise it on your behalf. She asked who her local member was and I told her it was Wyatt Roy, the little boy.
She said “good”, “I will give him a mouthful about those two lying bastards, Newman and Abbott!”
SK,
Your aunt is probably my vintage – don’t you just adore bolshie wimmin?
fiona,
She cracked me up. She is 4’7 and quite as a church mouse….until you piss her off!
Marrickville Mauler@4308
This was posted earlier but I have only just got around to reading it. Well worth a read.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labour_has_room_to_move_before_poll_Z2MjmKUvKpl68RvrvBzAWJ
sorry guys about all the spelling mistakes. I am having a shocker tonight!
[Turns out you need to approach either your local member or senator to organise it on your behalf.]
My local government plants a tree in a local park on your behalf once you turn 100. Which suits me just fine.
SK,
I’m 5’3″ and mostly v quiet, as you might have noticed.
Meantime I’ve noticed the time. A million things to do before the trip to Canberra on Sunday, so goodnight and sweet dreams to all. And as Robin Goodfellow said:
So, good night unto you all.
Give me your hands, if we be friends,
And Robin shall restore amends.
SK
Mark Furner Labor senator for Qld is the duty senator for Longman his office can handle the request if preferred.
Your aunt probably won’t get Roy’s letter handed to her in person unless he is trying to get a better public profile and photos to release to the local papers. The procedure usually results in about 7 to 8 letters arriving by post.
confessions,
Really? I will have to follow up and see if they do it in her lga.
Night fiona. And safe travels to Canberra.
Goodnight Fiona,
Have a fantastic trip!
Lga?
Ms Adventure,
Thanks for that info. I will let her know. Although I’d love to be a fly on the wall filming her have a go at Roy boy!
Fiona #4301, yeah that too.
Clearly Albo had done some good work earlier in the day on background (and did further good work getting the Parliament staff to get them the Hansard proof version of the loathsome LOTO’s disgraceful “died of shame” comment, Abbott didnt even expect to be picked up on that !!!)
But very clearly in the tactics discussion it was the PM who said “I’ll take it from here boys”; and take it she so did.
The looks on the faces of Albo (friend of PMJG since student days) and of the Worlds Best Finance Minister were a delight in themselves. Look again at the vid of the speech and you can see Albo barely remembering to scoff at the Tories, he was so lost in justified admiration for our PM.
Ms Adventure,
Local Government Area.
SK:
A recent curmudgeonly local centenarian refused the tree in favour of a morning tea with the mayor, where she reportedly gave him a piece of her mind.
If she is in Longman then it is only Roy or Mark Furner.
Confessions,
I guess they have nothing to lose, but an awful lot to say at that age!
MsAdventure # 4320 – lga = Local Government Area, I would think. As a lawyer and public servant I speak acronym – but I am trying to give it up!
rummel
[No way Swan and Gillard will go to the next election with a failed surplus promis. March 2nd it will be.]
Stop with this prediction please.
March 2, 1996 was my parent’s 50th wedding anniversary.
It was also the fkn election of John Howard.
I will not, repeat not, allow the election of another Coalition govt on March 2.
Pick another date FGS.
rummel
[No way Swan and Gillard will go to the next election with a failed surplus promis. March 2nd it will be.]
Stop with this prediction please.
March 2, 1996 was my parent’s 50th wedding anniversary.
It was also the fkn election of John Howard.
I will not, repeat not, allow the election of another Coalition govt on March 2.
Pick another date FGS.
Confessions..
Re the planting of a tree. I believe if Can’t Do Newman had his way he’d make the centenarians dig their own hole for the planting of the tree.
The State MP, also an LNP member can also put in the request to the Premier’s office who then pass it to the Feds. For a 100th and a letter from the Queen try to get the request in 2 months before her birthday.
http://www.itsanhonour.gov.au/anniversary/congrats_brochure.pdf
Marrickville Mauler,
I agree, I do, and I did: every re-viewing of THAT vid is why it will be an exemplar speech for thousands of fortunate students of multifarious disciplines for at least the next few decades.
It was perfect – with the “looking at his watch” gibe as the cherry on top of the whipped cream on top of the icing …
Jeffemu,
[Re the planting of a tree. I believe if Can’t Do Newman had his way he’d make the centenarians dig their own hole for the planting of the tree.]
Is your subtext that the centenarian should provide their own tree’s fertiliser?
If so, disgusting (on the Premier’s part), but unsurprisement.
Fiona, and purchase their own shovel to do the digging.
MsAdventure,
Ta I will give my aunt a copy!
Fiona.
Nothing surprises me with Can’tDo. What I enjoy doing up here in QLD when chatting and getting around to politics, is to try and find someone that actually voted for the little grub.
No one up here puts their hands up and proudly proclaim that they voted for the LNP.
In a funny sort of a way it is a good time to be known as a Labor voting person.
Can someone anyone please tell me the recent ‘perpendicular’ argument is not specifically related to male posters?
fiona #4332. yes and that the Tories didnt see the watch reference coming because they didnt see anything out of the ordinary in the LOTO’s behaviour at all!
PM was so clearly white hot angry and yet perfectly in control at the same time the whole way through . As perfect as one can hope for.
I hope Gough has had the chance to watch it; someone at work I can and will ask about that on Monday
Which by the way is Human Rights Day commemorating the Universal Declaration of Human Rights … I will be having a quite drink in memory of Dr Evatt for the occasion
http://www.esecurityplanet.com/hackers/anonymous-hackers-target-australian-right-wing-party.html
Jeffemu,
Not a lot of people holding back on the newman sledging here on the Gold Coast!
‘Shit London Awards 2012’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/gallery/2012/dec/06/shit-london-awards-2012-in-pictures#/?picture=400578571&index=4
Have to say goodnite. Can’t keep my eyes open!
SK
It is the same here north of Brisbane. The latest I hear – “Just when you think the Christmas joy couldn’t get any better than 100 jobs gone at Brisbane RCH, Santa Newman scraps early childhood hearing and eyesight testing across Qld”.
I have not sent or received any emails by to/from PBers.
My Say, perhaps you should let the person know you got that email. They probably do not know their email has been infected.
That happened to me once, and a spam email went to everyone in my address book. I had to contact everyone and tell them to delete it.
[That happened to me once, and a spam email went to everyone in my address book. I had to contact everyone and tell them to delete it.]
When that happened to me my address book was wiped. I have not saved anyone’s email address in My Contacts since then, just in case it happens again.
Marrickville Mauler,
I look forward to your friend’s response re Mr Whitlam.
And like several others on here, goodnight from me, and from them, and from …
And I hope the party across the road settles down sooner rather than later 🙁
[It was also the fkn election of John Howard.
I will not, repeat not, allow the election of another Coalition govt on March 2.
Pick another date FGS.]
Its perfect
[‘Dire’ manufacturing data pushes UK closer to triple-dip recession
ONS says factory output fell far faster than expected in October – putting prized AAA credit rating under further pressure]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/dec/07/manufacturing-data-uk-triple-dip-recession
[I hope the party across the road settles down sooner rather than later]
They were just on the phone ordering another keg.
The problem of people with disabilities moving from the disability sector to the aged care sector at 65 years of age is a problem that already exists and needs addressing. It will be a difficult issue to address and will take time.
There is an assumption that the aged care system can and does meet the needs of the elderly disabled. It cannot and does not. What happens is that all the supports that a disabled person has the day before they turn 65 are lost when the magic mark is passed. They then compete in an under-resourced, shambolic and complicated market for the services available to people without their specific needs. For a start they are transferred to aged pension. Loss of the disability pension then affects eligibility for equipment and services. As people with disabilities are living longer, this is happening more often.
People with disabilities call it the miracle birthday. It is when your disability is magically cured, according to the government.