The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
[Psephos,
It’s clearly not working for Bemused.]
GG. maybe he still got the manual hand operated steam driven tablet
confessions@4244
Yep, sure, just like after the 2010 election when I worked 15 hours on election day.
No doubt due to the degenerate nature of the comments on this blog :).
Dear my say
From all of us here at Poll Bludger, we wish you a very Happy Anniversary!
May you enjoy another 44 years together.
Sincerely,
Darren and all the posters at PB
GG:
[It’s clearly not working for Bemused.]
I don’t think that the NBN rollout has reached Mr Bemused yet. So be kind.
[Psephos,
It’s clearly not working for Bemused.]
Porn videos starring Kevin Rudd are quite hard to find. I only know of Kevin Does Programmatic Specificity, When Kevin Met Kevin, and Kevin’s Fair Suck of the Sauce Bottle.
Darren Laver@4250
Partly right. You have about as much substance as a shadow.
[ Kevin Does Programmatic Specificity, When Kevin Met Kevin, and Kevin’s Fair Suck of the Sauce Bottle.]
LOL
zoomster,
[Strange vegetable fact:
Because some people say their pee smells differently after they eat asparagus, it was believed for a long time that they carried a gene which meant their pee smelt differently after they ate asparagus.
Now it appears that they do carry a different gene – one which lets them smell asparagus in pee.]
Now that *is* interesting 🙂
Asparagus is one of the ‘good’ vegetable recommended for diabetics, pre-diabetics, the glucose intolerant.
We regularly eat it for breakfast with poached eggs but find the after-effects of the smelly urine a tad much to bear.
Why does there always have to be a down side:-(
[the after-effects of the smelly urine a tad much to bear.]
Yep, we’re in an old people’s home!
The PB lounge is now a twilight facility.
Peg
obviously you need some genetic modification!!
psephos,
Something’s Up Kevin is also in the same pack.
Ooops
Should read
Redfern Speech 1992
Remembrance Day Speech 1993,
Mabo Speech 1993
[We regularly eat it for breakfast with poached eggs but find the after-effects of the smelly urine a tad much to bear.]
No-one forces you to smell your urine, FFS. Get one of those blue things that makes your dunny smell like a hospital ward.
my say:
Happy anniversary
[Something’s Up Kevin]
LOL
I have no idea why, back in the 1960s and 1970s educationalists thought that A Midsummer Night’s Dream was the ideal way of introducing schoolkids to Shakespeare (the fairies, perhaps?), but this speech of Puck’s resonated even when I was very young:
If we shadows have offended,
Think but this, and all is mended,
That you have but slumber’d here
While these visions did appear.
And this weak and idle theme,
No more yielding but a dream,
Gentles, do not reprehend:
if you pardon, we will mend:
And, as I am an honest Puck,
If we have unearned luck
Now to ‘scape the serpent’s tongue,
We will make amends ere long;
Else the Puck a liar call;
So, good night unto you all.
Give me your hands, if we be friends,
And Robin shall restore amends.
[obviously you need some genetic modification!!]
😆 Good one!!
[Porn videos starring Kevin Rudd are quite hard to find.]
There was that youtube of him eating his own earwax, which I’m assuming bemused watches on a continual replay.
thank you to every one thank you
we must be anticipating another 44 year lol
we had the house solar powered today
so exciting to be in this century and doing things to save the planet the company that put it on is wholly owned here and was business of the year, we did not know that till today.
they are flat out , i am so excited about it
only 3300, my oh thought it was a a great anniversary present, o yes he forgot till lunch time when our daughter turned up with Christmas lilies
she said what did you give mum, he said quickly solar power
Trust a Green to turn up and go humourless about vegetables.
🙁
[Psephos
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 10:30 pm | PERMALINK
It really does sound like we’re in an old people’s home!
Curiously, I had a conversation only last week with someone who works in a retirement home, and they were telling me how the atmosphere in these places has vastly improved now that many of the residents have laptops and ipads and can watch porn in their rooms. Apparently much of the air of frustration, hostility and resentment that can make these places so unpleasant dissipates when everyone can get their jollies without interference.]
I nursed my father for 8 years.
In his last few months, every night he would ask me to make sure one of his grandsons would receive a particular book – the title of which was something along the lines of : Woodworking, trophymaking, etc.
And, Dad read this book every night.
After Dad passed away, I said to my family – Dad wanted this book to go to ??.
Everyone said: Okay.
And that’s when I flicked through the book. In the middle there were a few pages as tame as Playboy in its younger years,
But – there was a whole chest of video porn. Only watched a couple.
Dad was in his eighties.
Don’t you chaps ever give up. Seriously.
[There was that youtube of him eating his own earwax]
Curiously unarousing, I have to say.
fess,
Bemused is the “Jim Jones” of the Ruddistas.
If they don’t get what they want, they’ll suicide en masse on Rudd earwax.
Psephos,
I do enjoy your candour 😆
Kezza,
ROFLOL.
Even the Reverend Fred Nile is still going at it at his ripe old age, on NSW Parliamentary computers no less!
I’d like to join in in all the happy anniversary wishes.
confessions
[Trust a Green to turn up and go humourless about vegetables.]
😆 Agenda much 😉
Bait all u like but u will be playing with yourself 😆
my say,
An anniversary quack from me!
[Curiously unarousing, I have to say.]
It’s laugh a minute here atm 😀
[Porn videos starring Kevin Rudd are quite hard to find. I only know of Kevin Does Programmatic Specificity, When Kevin Met Kevin, and Kevin’s Fair Suck of the Sauce Bottle.]
I have a suspicion Senator Conroy will be working hard to get sites harbouring those titles banned. As he should. 🙁
Pegasus@4281
The trolls are out frolicking.
Kezza,
[But – there was a whole chest of video porn. Only watched a couple.
Dad was in his eighties.
Don’t you chaps ever give up. Seriously.]
If it is non-violent, and only involves consenting ADULT women (insofar as any sane woman could consent to participating in porn), then if it keeps them happy, why not? Especially if it stops them terrifying small and not so small children out of their wits, and scarring them for life.
There are many aspects of porn that I find concerning: for example, what (young) males consider is acceptable sexual conduct; how (young) women feel that they should present themselves (Brazilians, “sexy” underwear, agreeing to what their partners seem to consider acceptable sexual conduct) – but at least where it’s only about adults then, well, okay – though I am still all in favour of (younger) people finding out that, for example, women actually have (gulp) hair down there.
It goes without saying that anything to do with children/underage adolescents, and powerless people, and anything involving violence, is completely off-limits as far as I’m concerned.
One way of thinking about it is the uber-commodification of something that has been a commodity for all time. Don’t like that at all.
[Don’t you chaps ever give up.]
Is that an exhortation?
Oh dear. How am I going to make this sound genuine and not bloody condescending/patronising/etc? (If I don’t, and I probably won’t, please forgive me.)
I must apologise to all GLBTI PBers in being so specific about heteroporn. Would you all please be so kind as to extrapolate the intent of my comments to whatever genre of porn?
Bemused,
I associate eating earwax with The Shrek. I am still ‘traumatised’ by that scene when i watched the movie with my nieces years ago.
Dry wit and clever use of language / play on words in making jokes often makes me laugh (as long as no person or animal is harmed in the process) 🙂
It does not take the conservatives long to start eating away at Government initiatives.
Received the following email tonight
”Another underhanded trick by the pollies on the elderly.
Shutting over 65s out of NDIS a cruel blow
The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) Bill, now before parliament, will shut older Australians out of vital disability support services purely on the basis of their age.
In its current form, a woman who is suddenly blind at the age 65 cut-off, will be shunted into a user-pays aged care system ill-equipped to deal with disability unrelated to age.
A woman who is suddenly blind at 64, however, will receive under the NDIS, all the government-funded disability care and support she needs over her lifetime.
For the thousands of Australians who aren’t aware of the age restriction, it will come as a cruel blow, Michael O’Neill said.
“Some families will find themselves turned away from help that others will get as an automatic right. It seems ‘everybody counts’ unless you’re 65.”
National Seniors is calling on the government to include older Australians in the launch sites, as a starting point, to test the effect of their inclusion on budget projections.
If you want to have your say on the NDIS, email us.”
I found the answer here – http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/transcript-interview-linda-mottram-abc-sydney-2.
The problem is that firstly you have to find the interview and then you have to read through it to find the few lines that answer the question.
Basically the answer is that those over 65 are already covered by the aged care provisions administered by the Federal Government.
Ratsars,
Have they already started the meme that the ALP government did nothing – NOTHING, I tells ya – about the poverty-level of the old age pension?
Hello Bludgers!
I have been flat out with work and have had to resort to dropping in and out of twitter to keep a watching brief on political events. Couldn’t risk dropping in on you guys cos I wouldn’t have gotten any work done. 😉
I did manage to catch the very distinct change in the approach of the LNP Premiers to COAG this time around. Maybe they finally got it through their thick skulls that being on the wrong side of NDIS was going to cost them votes.
JG just keeps plowing through the agenda. If she ever decides to give up this political gig I’d hire her in a heartbeat!
[This little black duck
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 11:03 pm | PERMALINK
Don’t you chaps ever give up.
Is that an exhortation?]
Apparently, if my mum was still alive, she would have described you as “a yard of pump water”
SK,
I’ve been wondering where you were. Good to see you around – and great to know that you are bizzy.
fiona,
End of year is always busy for me. All those small businesses that discover they haven’t done any strategy development for the new year. There crisis becomes my bread and butter!
I have to say not posting and not even being able to lurk created a few anxious moments. Betty Ford do you have a vacancy? 😉
Speeches:
THAT speech, of course. Because as has been observed, it was indeed about over half the planet, and you can watch it over and over on youtube, and because the memory is still fresh of the waves of emotion spreading through my own office ( a Cth public service organisation I can’t name) as people tuned in live or watched replays . Men and women all, crying and cheering PMJG.
Granted mine is perhaps a slightly unusual organisation in terms of men being onside with gender equality, but it was a great moment.
Also the spectacle of the LOTO, Australia’s own Tea Party, serial liar, enemy of action on climate change and thus enemy of us all, Murdoch minion, nasty bully man-child (and now fake trucker): with all this, wilting and withering and looking increasingly grey and indeed turning to grey ash under dragon fire (nothing but respect meant there to PMJG of course, the red dragon being the emblem of Wales and all) – and his clear amazement, Fox News on US election day style, that white men could no longer say and do anything they like without being called on it.
Rudd’s apology. Granted this was also seen among a group of workmates who had a fair bit to do with the issues, many of them Aboriginal.
Calwell’s heroic delivery of Freudenberg’s best work , as Psephos pointed out.
Whitlam’s 72 and 74 policy speeches – perhaps the last time until many things change not least in the media that any federal leader will dare to treat the people and the press as adults who want to and are capable of engaging in deliberative democracy? They are so full of practical detailed translation of ideals into implementable programs. To mention just two which are bearing fruit right now: the NDIS (thanks Gough, thanks Brian Howe, thanks Kevin, thanks Bill Shorten and yes thanks Julia), and the Southern Sydney Freight Line (go Albo, the man Tom Uren rightly described as “my political son”)
My recently deceased friend Dr Stuart Barton Babbage, who was also a good friend of Gough’s, seizing (rather more pithily than Gough often managed) on the popularity of the 1960s West indian touring cricket party to attack the White Australia policy – “they may play with us, but they cannot stay with us?”
Lib add for hendy on the TV now……. March election coming.
SK,
You don’t need Betty Ford. You don’t even need to return to PB. All you need to know is that you have a helluva lot of siblingy lerve going for you.
Which reminds me: someone earlier today was asking about a non-gendered collective for nieces/nephews.
I’ve coined one:
Niblings (cf., siblings = brothers + sisters …)
Fiona @ # 4289
”Have they already started the meme that the ALP government did nothing – NOTHING, I tells ya – about the poverty-level of the old age pension”
This, I think is a move by those over 60 to get within the scope of the NDIS. They think that they are missing out when in fact at the moment they are “privileged” There is no doubt that those solely on a pension are struggling but what advantage can they get under the NDIS that they can’t get as a pensioner?
Gillard said in the interview I referenced that –
“PM – “the Federal Government, are the supporters of people in the aged care arrangements, so we already finance supports for people who have disabilities in that age range.” … So they’re not in the same circumstances, caught between federal and state arrangements as a lot of other people with disabilities.
Interviewer … the difference for those who are born with a disability and those who acquire one; will they be treated differently in this scheme?
PM – “No they wouldn’t. What would happen is you would be assessed for your needs.”
So clearly the PM is saying that there is no advantage at this time with those over 65 falling under the NDIS.
The problem is that those like the guy who sent me this would not believe a word that comes out of the PM mouth. So if anyone else has a reference to data supporting this I would appreciate the advice.
Ha! I like it, very clever!
fiona,
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/nibling
Sorry!
rummel@4295
How is that going to come about?
No way.