The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
[Score card: Tries hard but could do better]
Poor old horsey, yesterday she claimed Fran Bailey had posted here! Turns out she was referring to Fran Barlow – apparently no relation.
Off to the knackery for you my dear Peggy.
A straight line is tangent to itself.
Is a straight line parallel to itself?
This one I did google, and google tells me that it depends on the definition of parallel :P.
[Hilariously, bemused (who has kezza’s email address), would email kezza when he’d been banned to lobby on this blog for William to lift the ban.]
Bemused even used to lobby for the great Frank Calabrese!
Sadly Bemused has descended into senility and misdirected Rudd rage since that time.
o no zoomster i know where it came from
the name was on the heading for all to see
o well enough said
[o no zoomster i know where it came from
the name was on the heading for all to see
o well enough said]
A pretty low act.
Should anything ever happen to your computer, let us know and I am sure we will be able to help where ever we are in this country.
My say, you are a treasure here in Poll Bludger after all!
Crikey,so long ago already. Who remembers this from 25 years ago ? An amazing feat.
[In 1987 a West German teenager shocked the world, by flying through Soviet air defences to land a Cessna aeroplane in Red Square. He was jailed for more than a year – but a quarter of a century later, he has no regrets.]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20609795
it was not bemused
he respects commputers, and i know he would never do that
it was not bemused
he respects commputers, and i know he would never do that
mysay
That’s my point; the name will be on the heading, because the email address was hacked.
My name was on the heading of emails my friends received – looked exactly like my usual emails to them – but I certainly didn’t send them.
Give people the benefit of the doubt.
[And you can’t stop us.]
I’ve not the slightest intention of trying.
Darren:
It’s a bit sad, isn’t it?
Now reduced to selective memory around Rudd Removal, and Gillard as an anti-Australian rants.
[In 1987 a West German teenager shocked the world, by flying through Soviet air defences to land a Cessna aeroplane in Red Square. He was jailed for more than a year – but a quarter of a century later, he has no regrets.]
A day that will live in infamy!
Oh, that’s right, it was just a kid… it was most embarrassing to the geriatric leadership of the USSR military. The beginning of the end really…
My Say,
If it apparently came from me, I’d like to know – because it would mean that my computer has a virus. I’ve not emailed you for weeks.
If it apparently came from another PBer, it would be best to let them know so that they can run the appropriate scans.
Feedback about problems like this are very important.
Best wishes.
[PISS OFF YOU LOON!]
Not happy with continuous farting, now pissing as well
Darren Laver@4203
At least I wasn’t born stupid as some here appear to have been. Either that or early onset dementia.
[It’s a bit sad, isn’t it?
Now reduced to selective memory around Rudd Removal, and Gillard as an anti-Australian rants.]
Yes, very sad to see someone descend into madness like that over the course of the last year or so.
But what can one do? You can try to reason, but there comes a time when you just have to let them go and hope they will seek the help they need.
My email address is readily findable by anyone who clicks on the “Psephos” on my posts, yet I don’t recall ever getting a hostile email from anyone here. I assume this is because I am univerally beloved.
Feedback about problems like this
areis very important.(Too many scallops.)
my say@4207
My say, I doubt anyone knowingly did it.
Psephos,
[… because I am univerally beloved …]
Verally, verally we say unto thee …
[My email address is readily findable by anyone who clicks on the “Psephos” on my posts, yet I don’t recall ever getting a hostile email from anyone here. I assume this is because I am univerally (sic) beloved.]
Bullseye.
Herr Doktor Carr is without equal here and is something of an institution – despite his being flaky from time to time with prolonged absences!
Finns,
At least Mrs Bemused will be happy.
“There seems to be no end to the prick”.
thank you darren
very much
Darren:
I’ve given up trying to reason, you just get dragged into the Stupid.
It’s almost like a Fox News kind of delusion. You just have to recognise that there are people out there in the community who subscribe to this nonsense about the PM.
Gillard as an anti-Australian, pro-Israeli zionist is akin to Obama as a secret Kenyan citizen with a fake birth certificate. It’s abject lunacy.
Greensborough Growler@4223
There you go again with your perverted interested in other people’s penis.
You are a very sick little man.
fiona
[
Psephos,
… because I am univerally beloved …
]
Orrrrr as they say 😆
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCnUsInBQws
bemused they knowing did it
the attachment was well chosen
[(Too many scallops.)]
😆
A problem I’m sure we all had!
Love it.
Psephos,
Most of the time I’m violently in agreement with you.
However, it is hard to be anything but aggressively indifferent at times with your forthright approach to issues to which I’m passively uninterested.
[There you go again with your perverted interested in other people’s penis.
You are a very sick little man.]
It really does sound like we’re in an old people’s home!
confessions@4225
Your delusion, not mine.
I wonder if you children could allow your parents back on the computer. Please.
Fiona no it was not you , of course not
how is your daughter did she go to Morocco
my say@4228
I did not get an attachment, just an email with no subject and no contents except a link.
Sounds like we got different emails.
[Gillard as an anti-Australian, pro-Israeli zionist is akin to Obama as a secret Kenyan citizen with a fake birth certificate. It’s abject lunacy.]
I was naive to think such bible-belt redneck lunacy would never manifest itself here in Australia. But sadly having a female as Prime Minister proved we weren’t much better than the Americans.
I still hope the majority will rise above it in 2013 and defeat Abbott and his motley crew of lunatics, just as the US did this year.
I can just see bemused doing a Karl Rove on election night should a key marginal seat be called for Labor — he will be denial right to the bitter end…
fess @ 4200
You have a superlative memory!
😆
well i did say i disliked bad language
may be that’s why i got the email
but i do
i never find its necessary to talk about
one other bits in public
sorry i’m old fashioned
well oh must love me married 44 years today
and he shaved off his moustache for charity our son raised 2000 dollars for mens health but the moustache is going back on
Couple of amusing tweets
[Ahron Young @AhronYoung
At a good conservative mate’s house. Discussing impact of carbon tax, and then I found his power bill. #awkward https://twitter.com/AhronYoung/status/276979532106440704/photo/1
8:20 PM – 7 Dec 12
David Donovan @davrosz
Some more top secret photos of Liberal Party Units. http://tinyurl.com/avrf5y4
9:48 PM – 7 Dec 12]
DisplayName@4202
You can call it “perpendicular” to the argument and still be in a parallel universe.
One comma, inherited, plus the two I just put in. Semi-colons would be more interesting.
[It really does sound like we’re in an old people’s home!]
Curiously, I had a conversation only last week with someone who works in a retirement home, and they were telling me how the atmosphere in these places has vastly improved now that many of the residents have laptops and ipads and can watch porn in their rooms. Apparently much of the air of frustration, hostility and resentment that can make these places so unpleasant dissipates when everyone can get their jollies without interference.
[My email address is readily findable by anyone who clicks on the “Psephos” on my posts, yet I don’t recall ever getting a hostile email from anyone here. I assume this is because I am univerally beloved.]
Herr Doktor, ve ave a vey of making you tok
My Say,
I’m most relieved that it wasn’t me!
My daughter cut her European trip short – mostly because her Trans-Siberian tour was cancelled (told her it was really stupid to be doing it in the first half of January, when it would be not only v cold but also DARK most of the time). So she returned to Perth approx 3 weeks ago, and came over to Melbourne early last week. She and I are driving to Canberra on Sunday to visit her grandparents (my parents); then next Friday she flies out to SE Asia for a trek around Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Laos, then back to WA.
Then – I hope – she starts serious work as a serious engineer!
So, no Morocco this time. Probably – in view of your son’s experience – a very good thing!
[I can just see bemused doing a Karl Rove on election night should a key marginal seat be called for Labor — he will be denial right to the bitter end…]
True. We can see it now in some of his comments.
The latest is that Rudd’s Insiders interview when he capitulated on the HIP by apologising for it wasn’t Rudd, but a kitchen cabinet decision.
😆
my say
Happy Anniversary. 🙂
Psephos,
It’s clearly not working for Bemused.
Australia has had some great leaders, two of which have made speeches that have resonated with me. I can read ex-PM Keating’s speeches over and over again. I also go to his website and listen to them, nodding in agreement, feeling the same fire that I felt the first time I heard them and then feeling that it is up to me to make sure that the fight continues.
Now a new speech has joined the list of must listen to, must print and have on the wall of my office at work. PM Gillard’s speech against misogyny, a speech that will live on longer than her time in office or even her herself and a speech that means as much to women as Mr Keating’s speech in Redfern spoke to the indigenous. These speeches shout support to those that have been abused, ignored or cheated of their rightful place in society and both demand the rest of society fight against those that perpetrate the abuse.
My favourites are:
Prime Minister Paul Keating
Remembrance Day Speech at the funeral service of the Unknown Redfern Speech, 1992,
Australian Soldier, 1993,
Mabo Speech, 1993
Prime Minister Julia Gillard
Misogyny Speech, 2012.
[my say
Happy Anniversary.]
Hey My Say +11111111111111111111111111111111111111
My Say,
Happy Anniversary!
As my father says to my mother every anniversary (oh wow, next year is the 60th):
And no time off for good behaviour!
which I am sure is equally applicable to you and your OH.
I hope that you have had a great day.
[Psephos,
It’s clearly not working for Bemused.]
Yes, he apparently has a computer and yet is the quintessential grumpy senile old man barking at shadows.