The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
poroti:
You cheated! I deliberately didn’t go to Google.
confessions: google free
swamprat@4147
Interesting thought.
CTar1
[
fiona
I like almost all vegetables,
A fan of MTs 80′s cabinet then. How quaint!]
First version I heard was Joh Bjelke took his cabinet to a restaurant.
[Head waiter : Is sir ready to order ?
JBP : Yes, I’ll have the t-bone steak.
Head waiter: And for the vegetables sir ?
JBP : Oh they’ll have the same.]
Boom tish.
[She made a seriously magnificent moussaka yesterday; her Béchamel sauce was better than that I’ve eaten from many a professional chef.]
OMG I LOVE a good moussaka yet have never been able to cook it properly or do it justice. Principally because for the life of me I can’t do a bechamel sauce.
Zoomster,
One of the highlights of my research career was sitting with some teachers in the lower junior school staffroom for morning tea. The school principal sat down with us, and after a few polite exchanges asked:
Did you know that Don Juan ate asparagus in order to perfume his urine?
The teachers didn’t know where to look. I, however, roared with laughter.
(Well, it was very funny – both the statement, and the teachers’ reactions – and besides, I had known the principal for ages …)
bemused
I thought swamprat was barking mad suggesting that Gillard’s first allegiance was not to Australia but to the US – so why are you (apparently) agreeing with him?
[Gough’s “Men And Women of Ausralia” speech was also as Oppo Leader.]
If you want a great speech by an Opposition Leader find Calwell’s 1965 speech opposing Menzies on entering the Vietnam War. One of Graham Freudenberg’s first great speechwriting efforts. Calwell gets a bad press now because of his backward attitudes on some issues, but he deserves credit for that. He knew it would cost him the 1966 election and thus his last chance to be PM, but he did it anyway.
Confessions, Display Name, and Poroti,
I didn’t google either – a bit of Latin, a bit of ancient history, and memories of my childhood fascination with the history of mining in Australia.
But I betcha plumber is the correct answer!
GG:
Keating’s Redfern speech was brilliant. And delivered at a time when we as a nation were slowly coming to terms with our indigenous past.
If social media had existed back then, it’s likely it would’ve rated much more highly than Gillard’s misogyny speech in parliament.
bemused
For your information, I have little regard for Mr Rudd though he may, superficially be a better communicator. 🙂
pseph
[He knew it would cost him the 1966 election and thus his last chance to be PM, but he did it anyway.]
Yes, I knew that, and admire him for it.
[so why are you (apparently) agreeing with him?]
Because of his deep hatred for Gillard. It’s a hormonal response, he can’t help it.
zoomster@4157
Oh, I misread it. I was thinking Australian ambassador to Israel.
But there is a partial precedent isn’t there with Martin Indyk?
zoomster Everything you post is way to complicated for me tonight.
So, on that I retiring.
Adieu and all that stuff to all.
[I thought swamprat was barking mad suggesting that Gillard’s first allegiance was not to Australia but to the US – so why are you (apparently) agreeing with him?]
bemused is barking mad as well.
Just saying.
swamprat@4161
Tell someone who cares.
CTar1,
I don’t like bipedal vegetables. I especially dislike
&w=385&h=185&ei=hsnBULWHGNCdiAedy4DABw&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=282&sig=110011448017414990233&page=1&tbnh=124&tbnw=245&start=0&ndsp=34&ved=1t:429,r:20,s:0,i:149&tx=111&ty=65″ rel=”nofollow”>those suggestively bipedal (and more) carrots. They’re so demned difficult to peel.
GG
I know we’ve had our differences of opinion, but I reckon you and I are absolutely right.
JG’s speech just didn’t dismiss Abbott, it allowed future generations of women to take their rightful place among men. Among them your daughter. And you’ve seen first-hand how powerful women, young women, can be.
Women, just like men, haven’t learned all from their mothers, but from their fathers, fathers like you.
And, when you look on this blog, there’s probably a 50-50 break up of men and women. And we all have a legitimate say.
There’s people like Fran and Zoomster, articulate women, on different sides of the political sphere, but who have a wealth of knowledge or argument.
We have many party members who are disillusioned or vehement, all have a common regard – to make this society a better place.
But when you realise that women on the other side of the world have taken on Julia Gillard’s speech and have altered their workplace, their living place, because of it, then that is worth something immeasurable.
And Tony Abbott can die in a ditch wondering what he did wrong.
bemused
not one bit of swamprat’s post could be read by anyone who supports the Labor party as in anyway acceptable.
He insinuates that Gillard put the US ahead of Australia and that she despises Australians.
How can you claim to have misread it?
The “barking mad” one will leave. Night all.
Psephos,
I always remember a quote from Caldwell WTTE that he would rather be right than PM on Vietnam. Which he was!
Bit like comedy. Being right at the wrong time and unfashionable is a dangerous place to be for a populist politician.
As for Keating’s speech. As I said. Pretty good. Not as good or as far reaching as Gillard though.
zoomster@4170
Simple, I just glanced at it.
I am watching TV and only occasionally glancing at PB.
[bemused
not one bit of swamprat’s post could be read by anyone who supports the Labor party as in anyway acceptable.
He insinuates that Gillard put the US ahead of Australia and that she despises Australians.
How can you claim to have misread it?]
Bemused jumps on anything that smells anti-Gillard.
He is at best senile, at worst a Liberal tr*ll.
Say, My Say
Would that would, but I do not have your email address, perforce did not send anything to you.
I am pleased that the sentiments were appreciated, however.
May I echo them.
Sigh.
I have officially become a pensioner.
At 51, it’s a bit unexpected.
On one hand, I knew that someone who hobbled into a job interview leaning on a cane and announced that they’d be taking time off for major surgery sometime in the future wasn’t an appealing job prospect, but I did expect Centrelink to put up a bit of a fight.
But no.
Two bright sides: it’s only for a year (although realistically, I’m stuffed professionally) and I get the free travel thingy.
kezza2
[And Tony Abbott can die in a ditch wondering what he did wrong.]
Amen.
and to the poster that tried to send me a bug and infect my computer, this lap top is now the main way i communicate with my my girls,nand sons as the phone is now out of the questiion for me,
next time you meet a hearing impaired person stop and think.
Fascinating program on SBS. Churchill’s Traitors.
[Pearl Harbor and the Fall of Singapore: 70 years ago these huge military disasters shook both Britain and America, but they conceal a secret so shocking it has remained hidden ever since. This film tells the incredible story of how it was the British who gave the Japanese the know-how to take out Pearl Harbor and capture Singapore. For 19 years before the fall of Singapore to the Japanese, British officers were spying for Japan. Worse still, the Japanese had infiltrated the very heart of the British establishment – through a mole who was a peer of the realm known to Churchill himself.]
Kezza,
[… when you realise that women on the other side of the world have taken on Julia Gillard’s speech and have altered their workplace, their living place, because of it, then that is worth something immeasurable.]
Absobloodylutely.
[have little regard for Mr Rudd though he may, superficially be a better communicator.]
Rudd was one of the worst communicators ever to enter Australian politics. He spoke in incomprehensible management jargon, weirdly mixed with antique schoolyard slang, which he could never get quite right. He also enjoyed endless repetition, hence his eye-glazing QT performances.
Darren Laver@4174
PISS OFF YOU LOON!
Kezza,
I always agree with myself.
But, Hear! Hear!
I have a number of daughters. They have all been brought up to not take shit from anyone.
[and to the poster that tried to send me a bug and infect my computer, this lap top is now the main way i communicate with my my girls,nand sons as the phone is now out of the questiion for me,
next time you meet a hearing impaired person stop and think]
There are some pretty awful posters on here if they would do such a thing.
Disgraceful in my opinion, but not surprising given the hatred they spew against strong women like you, my say.
mysay
Often emails which send you bugs don’t come from the person whose email address it is – in other words, their email has been hacked and used to send nasty stuff to other people.
It’s happened to me occasionally – friends have rung me and asked why I sent them an email which I hadn’t.
Hasn’t happened recently (probably since the son came home and updated our security settings).
So don’t jump to conclusions. Chances are it wasn’t someone here.
Darren,
Name names.
Zoomster,
Many hugs, good vibes, and some smiley Gold Echidnas.
I hope the surgery happens sooner rather than later, and I’m sure that once it happens your recovery will be swift and the prognosis brilliant.
As for your career, don’t you worry about that! Given the rate of departure from your profession, I think that there will plenty for you to do for the next 15 years or so.
And – even if you don’t feel like smiling just now, try it: the mere effort of making your face do that smiley thing does make a difference to your happy-brain neurotransmittors.
bemused
[the fall of Singapore to the Japanese, British officers were spying for Japan. Worse still, the Japanese had infiltrated the very heart of the British ]
The original ANZACs we escorted from Albany W.A. by the Japenese navy.
[After sailing from Japan, via New Zealand, HIJMS Ibuki played a pivotal role in the protection of the convoy of troop ships assembled from around Australia and New Zealand, and on November 1, 1914 sailed from Albany in Western Australia, Mrs Smithson said.]
http://smithsonmedia.com.au/projects-ibuki/
How would anyone here know My Say’s email address anyway?
Scarpat@4038
“Orthogonal” works.
fiona: Similar bits of trivia, here.
Somehow all that buried trivia manages to float up, even though I can’t find stuff right in front of me. The human brain is weird :D.
[PISS OFF YOU LOON!]
senile it is then.
Off to the funny farm with you my dear.
Duckie (yum yum),
There’s always edge-matching.
zoomster@4185
Co-incidentally, I received an email from a poster here tonight shortly before my say complained.
It had a suspicious link so I deleted it.
crickey no it certainly was not u who sent me the bugged email the person knows who they are
they had my email address becauce ifelt sad for that person at one state and wanted to help out,
well i cannot take the risk any more of posting
as we are on pension now there is no way i can afford another lap top like this one,
i am just sad that some one would send me a labor person a bug and i can tell you i just ask my son in law about it i typed out the name he said it was a serious risk to my computer.
out there he said mum
my son in law is a very old fashioned lovley boy who calls me mum
i am so lucy
crickey i tried to find you on my list but i cannot
so would be really nice if you had my email address though
and no it was not bemused as we have never communicated
not saying who it was as it not something i should say
zoomster:
Can you do some consulting work, or home schooling?
ruawake
[… if you missed it Queensland is also an Eastern State.]
Yes, short term memory problems…for some reason as i was typing my response to Don i was thinking of WA.
Kudos for your ‘gotcha’ but am disappointed that u didn’t go all out and correct my typo as well 😆
Score card: Tries hard but could do better 😉
[Psephos
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 9:33 pm | PERMALINK
the most significant speech made by an Australian PM since Menzies “Forgotten People” speech
He wasn’t PM when he made it.
And what about Keating’s Redfern speech, and his Unknown Soldier speech? How soon we forget.]
Keating’s Redfern Speech will go down in Australian history, well, Labor Australian history, as a most significant speech about Australian values.
however, because the Conservative fkers will never allow it to get too much airtime, it will never resonate like Gillard’s Misogyny Speech.
Do you understand why?
It’s because more than HALF the world’s population is made up of WOMEN.
And that’s why it will resonate over time.
Because women are sick to death of being told what to do in 1st world countries, and we’re telling our educated brethren not to put up with the same in any other country.
We’re with Malala, we’re with every oppressed woman.
And you can’t stop us.
Because there’s just as many IT specialist women as there are men.
yes i deleted too
but my system alerts me
a pop up comes up and a warning sign
[How would anyone here know My Say’s email address anyway?]
Some correspond.
Hilariously, bemused (who has kezza’s email address), would email kezza when he’d been banned to lobby on this blog for William to lift the ban.