The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
confessions@4096
Oh… so Bolt was involved in the plot. 😯
[4. Hunting for scallops, chorizo, duck, and assorted vegetubbles.
5. Devouring scallops, chorizo, duck, and assorted vegetubbles.]
What did you cook? Aside from the duck, it sounds divine. *yum yum*
CTar1
What are you confused about?
(Just in case – ignore if I’ve misunderstood you…)
“Let’s eat grandma” without a comma is a suggestion that you and I eat grandma.
“Let’s eat, grandma” with a comma is a suggestion to grandma that it’s time to eat.
The easiest way to sort out commas is to say the sentence out loud. If you paused anywhere (but shorter than you would for a full stop) then you put in a comma.
Once upon a time, all writing was designed to be read aloud (only a few people could read, and it was expected that they would read to those who couldn’t).
Punctuation is put in to tell the person reading aloud how they should read the sentence – where to pause (and how long to pause), where to put an inflection, where to stop for a breath (at the end of as sentence).
So the easiest way to work out if you’ve punctuated something correctly is to listen to it being read aloud.
well most nights we do end up on sbs
i love the history programs about families and Thursday night is all cooking
i was thinking about programs like , The Bill
and all the old English dramas, i get angry at people who made decisions to take away the things we enjoy
and the life is not now predictable
to much change all to do with profit
our car parks till recently had attendant in boxes taking our ticket and money,, not its all do it your self take the card put in a slot ect. the men of course tole me they lost all their over time,
one could get in to ones car, sort your self out have the card ready and out through the gate and pay
now it lost in ones purse , forget where the car is
go to the top of the car park, forget that now you have to pay before you go to the car
and the city fathers are complaining because people shop in the suburbs.
well at least we still have quite a few server you
petrol stations
sigh
no wonder people are shopping on line
and imagine if abbott got in god the change w would be enough to make want to climb under a log and never come out till he had gone
what scares me is
this could be our last decent christmas
its terrifying me
Think Big@3722
Think Big,
Not sure if you have ventured here:
http://www.martinpughastrophotography.id.au/index.htm
But it is a guy from Canberra, also in the Navy I think, he has one the Atrophotographer of the year twice so far. Some of his images are simply breathtaking.
MMMM?????????
How did won become one, well if you read what I wrote you must realise that one is supposed to be won.
my say@4105
Stop dramatising.
i remember the days when only abc people where on the abc
this is what i mean,
i miss the day of MR Hill he was my favouite MD
of the abc
poroti – You’ve set me thinking again on a subject I can say that I know more than most about:Suez / 1956 / the French / Israeli’s and the USA.
So I may be back to bore the crap out of you in a couple of days with some thoughts.
SMH quotes AFP on the earthquake in Japan earlier this week. Part of it sounds like what would be a direct quote from the Japanese:
[A one-metre-high tsunami has hit Japan’s northeast coast, the country’s meteorological agency says.
The wave was recorded in Ishinomaki, a city in Miyagi prefecture that was badly hit by the tsunami of March 2011, which killed thousands…
No abnormalities were observed on Friday at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Fukushima prefecture, which borders Miyagi, its operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Co, said.
The plant went into meltdown after it was hit by the March 2011 disaster and has been shut down ever since.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/powerful-quake-shakes-buildings-in-japan-20121207-2b16b.html#ixzz2EMJJWZ00
No abnormalities; that’s a relief…
You blokes don’t get it, do you?
A woman’s alwasys been installed to minimise/soften the damage.
“Oh, petal, we can’t kick you out like we’d like to do them”
This is not just on the Labor side, although Labor’s done it more than most.
Victoria: Joan Kirner
WA: Carmen Lawrence.
And more.
Then the Libs thought they try it:
Kerry Chickowski.
Every time, since the 90s, blokes pandering to FEMINISM and making feminism a dirty word, a woman was installed to lose.
But, JG didn’t lose.
She proved the better. And even blokes on her own side can’t handle it.
Even today, David Penberthy wrote a column about the patheticness of the press. And what did he say about THAT speech?
He still couldn’t give it the accolade it deserved.
He called it an “alleged” phenomenon.
He refused to recognise it as a REAL phenomenon.
What’s wrong with blokes?
JG’s video hit 2 million plus – you know, the misogynist video.
And, today, JG’s spoof on the end on the world hit ! million on youtube.
Give us a break, guys.
.
you be dramatising bemused if you lost one quarter of your pension, that of course if you receive one
and you will be dramatising if we lose medicare
hecs and the like i think i am underestimating
what will happen to this country
no drama just beng real
so get behind the pm and get out there and tell your litte mate to help
fiona
Re peace and love in the PB lounge. Not so long ago BK’s Morning Patrols first task was to hose the blood off the walls and sweep up the broken glass in the PB lounge after the night time ,cough,debate. Older PB loungers tell me that the Hilary vs Obama nomination war broke every single one of the Geneva Conventions. 🙂
As much as anyone can hang their hat on a poll I would guess that Labor – right now – is competitive.
The election has not been “lost”, the opposition need to “win” the election (I just don’t buy the truism that “governments lose office rather than opposition win them”) and we are still a long way out from polling day.
Time and incumbency, if one must talk in political truisms, is on the government’s side.
This is not a tired and dispirited government kind of waiting to be put out of its misery.
There are times when, in your heart of hearts, you know your side is going down – surely the case in the State elections in NSW and Queensland of late.
However, this is certainly not the case with the current Labor government.
my say@4113
Now you are lying if you say you have lost one quarter of your pension.
You know Labor has increased pensions.
Ctar1
[So I may be back to bore the crap out of you in a couple of days with some thoughts.]
Bore away ! I love hearing about stuff like that.
fiona
[The peace of which has been increased by my absence for the last nearly 6 hours]
I noticed the particular effect. It was very nice.
*comes back from dinner*
*sees shrapnel filled, blood spattered craters*
*faints*
zoomster – I give the out aloud bit a try (he says very hesitantly).
Confessions,
OH’s and my only offspring is staying with us at the moment. She was in Europe when we celebrated OH’s 70th, so she decided that on her second-last night in Melbourne it would be appropriate to dine at the restaurant where the 70th bash was held.
The menu – well, we all had the same entrée:
Seared scallops, cauliflower foam, chorizo, almonds and brioche crumble
Mains:
Daughter: Twice cooked pork belly, handmade pork parcel, braised red cabbage, caramelisied pear, candied pancetta & madeira reduction
OH: Slow braised lamb neck (8hrs), celeriac puree, baby beetroot, onion cigar, sago pearls & braising reduction
Moi: Roasted magret of duck (med-rare), onion & duck leg tart, spiced carrot puree & bitter sweet duck jus
Wine: Storm Ridge Shiraz 2006 (Badger’s Brook Vineyard, Yarra Valley)
When daughter saw the menu online (before we booked) she said wtte “They’re trying too hard.”
After dinner, she agreed that it was seriously good cooking. Better still, it’s one of those places where the serves are just right: after the meal one feels satisfied rather than sated.
And all this just a leisurely 10 minutes’ stroll from home …
kezza2
[
Give us a break, guys]
Give the guys a break. The PB blokes were BOOYAH over “that ” speech.
the poster that just sent me that email need not have bothered i have a great security system
that lets me know when i am getting a bug sent to me
kindly do not send me an email again
[And, today, JG’s spoof on the end on the world hit ! million on youtube.]
That was very funny. It made the Guardian online front page.
Poroti @ 4114,
Does that make moi a civilizing influence?
(Obligatory 😉 )
poroti – I will be boring all right.
If you blindfolded me and dropped me in the Canal Zone then spun me around 7 times I could still walk you directly to the exact point where the Marine Commandos came ashore and where the French paras landed on the other side.
fiona:
Sounds like you all had a great meal. Cauliflower foam however, sounds like something I’d make unintentionally.
As I said, I’m not keen on duck, but the lamb and the pork sound divine. I’m having chicken and mushroom risotto tonight. Nothing special.
my say@4123
It wasn’t me, I didn’t do it, and you can’t prove a thing… 👿
fiona
[
Poroti @ 4114,
Does that make moi a civilizing influence?]
Can’t say until we see a head to head Fiona vs Frank Calabrese PB exchange 🙂 He has his own site now.
[Marian Dalton @crazyjane13
Oh FFS … Fukushima nuclear plant being evacuated as @ABCNews24 talks about dogs that drive. #headdesk ]
OM fail again.
[poroti
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 9:14 pm | PERMALINK
kezza2
Give us a break, guys
Give the guys a break. The PB blokes were BOOYAH over “that ” speech.]
Yeah?
Oh, okay, tsk.
So, they applauded once upon a time?
Do they continue to applaud?
Or do they shrug and dismiss it?
They don’t seem to be too BOOYAH against the PB blokes who didn’t like it.
Not like we women were/are!
Or is that just a bloke thang?
bemused
[
It wasn’t me, I didn’t do it, and you can’t prove a thing…
👿 ]
You forgot “It was like that when I got here.”
Confessions,
It’s fascinating how – when it comes to vegetables – people divide precisely: those who happily eat a particular vegetable, and those who avoid it like the plague.
I like almost all vegetables, with the exceptions of swedes and turnips. However, an aunt-by-marriage nearly turned me off cauliflower for life by pressure-cooking it until it was pink (although to be honest any vegetable if cooked/overcooked can be rendered revoltingly inedible).
Chicken and mushroom risotto sounds yum. Enough leftovers for tomorrow night if I come visiting?
kezza2@4131
Why do you persist in embarrassing yourself?
Nobody has gotten this yet. Surely PBers are up to the challenge!
[Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
Tonight’s #Emmoquiz Which occupation derives its name from the symbol of an element and where does that element come from? ]
poroti@4132
It was my best recollection of a line from the Simpsons.
kezza,
I’m a bloke and agree with you 100%
Gillard’s ‘Misogyny” speech is probably the most significant speech made by an Australian PM since Menzies “Forgotten People” speech that catapaulted him to a generation of Government.
The context is that it will live beyond her, you and me.
Plumber
fiona:
I’m like you re vegetables, but would add inappropriately cooked eggplant to swedes and turnips. Nothing worse than eggplant that isn’t cooked in the right dish.
The risotto recipe I’m using serves 8, so come on over, there’s plenty!!
Confessions,
Easy peasy: plumber from plumbum = lead, because in Ancient Rome the plumbing was all in lead pipes.
Where does lead come from???? Erm, lead mines. Think Broken Hill … byproduct of silver mining if my memory serves me correctly.
[the most significant speech made by an Australian PM since Menzies “Forgotten People” speech ]
He wasn’t PM when he made it.
And what about Keating’s Redfern speech, and his Unknown Soldier speech? How soon we forget.
Display Name,
Semi-snap!
fiona
[I like almost all vegetables,]
A fan of MTs 80’s cabinet then. How quaint!
fiona
[
Confessions,
It’s fascinating how – when it comes to vegetables – people divide precisely: those who happily eat a particular vegetable, and those who avoid it like the plague.
I like almost all vegetables, with the exceptions of swedes and turnips. ]
There is a very good reason for that. You, it would appear, have the same gene.
[Don’t Care For Broccoli? A Bitter Taste Receptor Gene’s Variation Suggests An Evolutionary Excuse
a gene called TAS2R38 may be responsible for children’s aversion to bitter flavors. There are two variants of the gene as I do, one is bitter-sensitive and the other is not.]
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/09/060918165721.htm
Confessions,
Eggplant – sure, but I always cook it correctly, and daughter has inherited the ability. She made a seriously magnificent moussaka yesterday; her Béchamel sauce was better than that I’ve eaten from many a professional chef.
Not that I’m proud of her, as I’m sure that you will have noticed…
confessions
[Nobody has gotten this yet. Surely PBers are up to the challenge!
Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP
Tonight’s #Emmoquiz Which occupation derives its name from the symbol of an element and where does that element come from? ]
Google free answer. Plumber. From latin for lead ,plumbum. Symbol for lead = Pb. It comes from exploding stars from a long time ago.
At least, should the ALP lose the next Commonwealth election, the PM could become the next USA ambassador to Israel.
She could serve her two great loves in one job, and be rid of those hideous Australians.
fiona:
Emmo’s gotten all sorts of hilarious responses to his quiz question. Someone said the LOTO and sodium (Na). I have no idea, and am waiting to see what it actually is.
Strange vegetable fact:
Because some people say their pee smells differently after they eat asparagus, it was believed for a long time that they carried a gene which meant their pee smelt differently after they ate asparagus.
Now it appears that they do carry a different gene – one which lets them smell asparagus in pee.
Psephos,
Proves there haven’t been many. Curtin’s call to the US is very good too. Changed the focus of Austrralia from Brit centric to US centric.
Keating’s speech is well crafted but won’t resinate as far and wide as Gillard’s speech will over the journey imho. I haven’t forgotten it. Just think Gillard’s is better.
Gough’s “Men And Women of Ausralia” speech was also as Oppo Leader.