The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
so is this the spectator was nt that sold recently
is the same one
so now they do polling do they
it would be rather nice if just one person answered just one of my questions
confessions
[I don’t read Fran’s comments, so I don’t know what the Fran getting drunk thing refers to, but rather than an obsession with sex]
Go back and have a look. It was actually waaaay G-Rated .
When we were going out, I used to get my husband drunk (ish) so he’d dance with me.
(Hmmm…he didn’t find me repellent, he was just self conscious about dancing…)
zoomster:
Of course the downside is that the current round of talks are barely being reported by OM – Sky News have reported nothing about proceedings, and I’m having to resort to twitter, or listen to RN Breakfast on the way to work to catch up with the Doha latest.
Pre-legislated carbon pricing, all these meetings were reported heavily in the commercial MSM, and there were opinion pieces aplenty about this failure, that success etc. But now, hardly anything.
More media ‘framing’ I suppose. OM is great for fluff he-said-she-said, but not so good at follow through, and genuine reporting on serious, international issues.
my say@4051
Maybe we struggle to understand them.
zoomster
Fran has always had a great sense of humour. You just had to read her stuff more closely to find that out.
Any astute person would have know that.
There was no need for the blokes to amalgamate en masse to demand answers from her today about herself.
It is obvious that among all the women on this site, Fran is the most able to espouse herself academically.
But, this was a pack-mentality today amassed against Fran.
It may have started out as a gentle pick, but then it degenerated into a full-on go.
Fran kept responding in the initial vein.
And if you bastards want to pretend you weren’t having a go, well zoomster’s let you off the hook, but if you were honest at all, you were not innocent.
But, hey, I’m pretty good for a kicking.
By both sexes.
Psephos@3978
.
Given that it’s apparently 46-54 not 44-56 it only needs a 4% swing nationwide. But I still get that leaving about a 12% swing against in NSW assuming gains in other states, and if that’s uniform it wipes 14 Labor seats. Making the swing non-uniform probably makes it worse not better; Labor have a lot of seats on 12-13 and some are in W Sydney.
So even with the correct 2PP I don’t think it is adding up.
[Mr McArdle said lawyers were going after “all the pervy stuff” and doubted they would find anything that was useful.
“They will either find nothing or they will find a forgery of my client’s signature,” he said.
“We’ve asked to examine those documents before they are released to Fair Work Australia, which we are entitled to do.
“We’ll see what happens then.”]
So Thommo’s lawyers get to see the stuff before FWA, poor FWA having to charge someone with stuff they haven’t got proof of.
Thomson does not need a job, he will be living off defamation payouts for life.
Now, wait on, wait on!
It was just a few weeks ago, and Labor, it was predicted, would lose all but one of their Queensland seats. Rudd being the only sentimental survivor.
Now this loony poll has Labor winning seats all over the country except the 10 they are going to lose in NSW – no, sorry, Sydney, no, no Western Sydney must get it right, not to mention the 5 out of 4 seats they hold in Tassie. No, no, got this wrong too. The will lose all of their three seats in Tassie. But wait, they hold 4.
And this is from an internal Labor poll?
Now, I might guess, some of the suburbs of Sydney may be where the election is won and lost, but nearly 12 months out?
I seem to remember Riley and 7 – some months ago – predicting the same outcome from ‘internal polling”. I also seem to remember this poll died about as quick as polls and die.
Mind you, in a much more restrained way, Andrew Probyn has made much the same point in today’s West.
“Sydney or the Bush” it would seem.
spurr liberal man is back
lol so it must be a new poll weekend
poroti – my last comment seems to have been missing some almost essential words.
May be the ‘sex’ talk has me distracted.
kezza2@4056
You bring it on yourself.
dont you think common sence would tell you that there would be no internall polling told to the media
i have been told by labor members that not even they are privy to such things, so why tell the media
and it would be a funny time of the year to do
internall polling dont you think
Tricot@4059
You can say thanks to CanDo for demolishing that little narrative. 🙂
CTar1
[
poroti – my last comment seems to have been missing some almost essential words]
Nah. Stupid + Fuacked goes without saying 🙂
my say@4063
Parties (and subsets of parties) do internal polling anytime, they just don’t usually release it, and when they release it there’s almost always a motive for doing so.
All released internal polls should be treated with great caution, especially if not all data are released and the released info doesn’t make sense.
Fran
You won’t be surprised.
The Uncle jack thing I get.
‘Eat shots leaves’ -importance of a comma? Not.
Let’s eat granma – Not.
Signed: Totally Clueless.
Tricot@4059
Nice demolition job Tricot.
I didn’t say I thought fran didn’t have a sense of humour, btw!
,
my say:
Parties release internal polling all the time. It’s fair to say that there’s invariably an agenda driving the need to leak.
Tricot
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
Now, wait on, wait on!
It was just a few weeks ago, and
——————————————————-
tricot i remember now it was after that little effort that ari came and did his post
some thing about seen it alll before
gosh i wish i could find it
[You can say thanks to CanDo for demolishing that little narrative]
As they say a week is a long time in politics, who knows Tony may have a real budgie in his smugglers, he afectionally calls her Chris.
Guytaur #several pages back – talk about the importance of punctuation!! How many brothels has FWA claimed to have had??? Whole brothels? Does it make it easier on everyone that FWA is a body corporate? No wonder their report took so long, even so.
confession well i have been told different
was told by a member its very expensive to do and its never done, and only in some areas and its never realeased
Boerwar:
😆 !!!
when i say never done i mean over all seats
wtte
when i say never done i mean over all seats
wtte
MM
Did the FWA investigator know that the FWA claimed to have brothels, plus what did he do about it?
thank you kevin thats similar to what ari said
last week
.
poroti – Moncton’s father would have faced the hangman for his behavior in 1956 if it had of been 1910.
The ‘bomb-site’ – there’s one strike on there that’s right on the Lauderdale Tower! (triangle shape half way along Silk St0.
but i would say it will be in the hard copies to morrow
though
Rua, I hesitate to say more than that the whole thing looks like just another stupid trucking stunt.
is tv boring these days its a wonder the advertises\
dont complain
we end up watching things like move to the country british stuff like that.
it really is just background noise as we are both reading
i am wondering in 5 years will the tv sit in the corner just like the large old radio did not being turned on
i rather hope so
[
NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell puts the chance of any change to the GST on par with pigs flying.
As Mr O’Farrell headed into the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meeting in Canberra on Friday he was asked if GST reform was on the agenda.
“Hang on, a pig just went by,” he told reporters at parliament house.
“There’s as much chance of reforming the GST in the lead up to a federal (election) campaign as there is of me jumping off this building and surviving.”]
Hang on just a minute Fatty O Barrel, isn’t this exactly what Peter Costello told everyone?
CTar1
He was against the Suez omnishambles so he cannot have been all bad.
my say@4084
Good programs on SBS tonight.
You blokes need to take a GHLLAY
“Good Hard Long Look At Yourselves.”
As seen in many a footy room
We’ve sat there for eons taking shite from the supposed bloke leaders. Leaders who didn’t have a clue.
We now have a leader for ourselves. A woman who cares about women.
And, we’re not going to take the shite from you blokes any longer.
You bastards have pretended to know what was best for us for too damn long. You didn’t have a fkn clue.
And, we’re here to tell you how to do it.
Fran today was exemplary. She told you what you wanted to hear although she never resiled from her position (rhetoric). Even though you tried to sweet-talk her.
zoomster tells you every day how she has made policy. Long hard looks at policy. But, what does that matter to you? A woman doing policy? Not much at all.
If you can’t admit that’s the way you’ve always been (because you get propped up by some woman along the way), then at least start to take a GHLLAY. Cos, I for one, am damn sick of you.
BW – There’s no doubt you’re a bugger of a man.
, indeed.
Fran Barlow
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
…
[You could just refer them to John Cook’s Skeptical Science blog. It deals very effectively in lay language with graphs and pictures with all the denialist arguments in circulation.]
I don’t think facts are his goal.
I got the seven last years have been cooler than the peek.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.shtml
To which I replied (I was getting fed up with it by then) come on your an engineering surely you know the difference between data points and trends.
Gave me the line that the temerature has not been out of the range seen in the last 40 thousand years, to which I replied rubbish 40 years ago we where in an ice age. We would be standing on a glacier if there has been no change. Guy had no idea.
I suppose I should have got his email so I could bombard him with facts. I found it depressing.
kezza2@4088
Stop embarrassing yourself.
i would love to know just who these journalist, who do negtive stories re the gov, will end up voting for in the privacy of their little booth
surely they have families and want the best for them
Still really confused. Please send help.
[The Australian share market has closed the week at a seven-week high, lifted by broad-based gains in most sectors, the strongest in health and industrial stocks. ]
Er isn’t the economy in free fall?
Heard Middleton and Lewis on ABC radio give a pretty balanced view of the political year on ABC radio. Covered the main developments, with one very glaring exception:
Labor’s comeback in the polls.
It is like it never happened
[was told by a member its very expensive to do and its never done, and only in some areas and its never realeased]
Internal polling gets leaked more often than you think. As I said, usually to drive some agenda or other.
Remember the internal polling which was leaked to Bolt prior to Rudd Removal? That was used to advance the argument of his weakening leadership. There’s always an agenda, hence leaked internal polling should be taken with a large grain of salt.
poroti@4036
It is there for the taking. Don’t be shy, Barak.
4040
confessions
They have been pretty quiet of late. 🙂
[I refuse to concede that I have added in any way to the conflagration and general mayhem happening on this usually peaceful Blog.]
The peace of which has been increased by my absence for the last nearly 6 hours, during which time I have been:
1. Raising BH’s heart rate;
2. “Leading” a seminar;
3. Drinking fizz;
4. Hunting for scallops, chorizo, duck, and assorted vegetubbles.
5. Devouring scallops, chorizo, duck, and assorted vegetubbles.
6. Drinking shiraz;
7. Licking moi’s lips and whiskers.
What’s been going on here?
my say
[
i would love to know just who these journalist, who do negtive stories re the gov, will end up voting for in the privacy of their little booth
surely they have families and want the best for them]
My Say, journo mavens earn more than 98.5% of people in Australia. Why would they give a toss about us “peasants” when they are part of the elite ?