The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
Haha. How does Labor pick up 5 seats with a primary of 33.
japan earthquake and tsunami warning, Kyushu just got a tornado.
If you read or listen to the We are Us speech to the ALP Conference it is a very good speech.
Shame it was ridiculed by people who would prefer a different Prime Minister.
Fran
I’m loving the way you keep heading the pack off at the pass with your logic.
The blokes on here are wanting to know what to do about their hard-on about you – if only you’d change, sweetheart.
And you haven’t changed.
And none of us have, either.
So, guys, put your dicks back in your pants, and start behaving like adults.
[Mark Willacy @markwillacy
Early reports of magnitude 7.3 earthquake in northeast Japan ]
kezza2@4004
Gaawwwwdddd you are stupid kezza.
[So, guys, put your dicks back in your pants, and start behaving like adults.]
Please explain, my dick is and was and will be (miracles excepted) in my pants.
confessions
[The UN now confirms that Lord Monckton has been permanently barred from the UNFCCC process.]
Which unfortunately means all the denialist nut jobs will have their UN “world government” theories strengthened 🙁
There’s a poster in a school I teach at:
“Let’s eat grandma.”
Subtitled: The importance of commas.
Kezza 2
[Fran: I’m loving the way you keep heading the pack off at the pass with your logic.
The blokes on here are wanting to know what to do about their hard-on about you – if only you’d change, sweetheart.]
I appreciate the solidarity Kezza. It’s a nice thing. Personally though, I don’t believe anyone here has been notably out of line in their responses to me. There was a bit of playful banter earlier, to which I probably opened the door, but it was just all clean harmless fun as far as I could tell.
JapanTimes:
Quake of preliminary M7.3 jolts Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima area; tsunami warning issued
zoomster@4009
Brilliant! 😆
Aristotle was on here last week
wtte i wish i could find his post
i dont want to say things he may have said
but i think it was not taking any notice
of internall polling
Aristotle was on here last week
wtte i wish i could find his post
i dont want to say things he may have said
but i think it was not taking any notice
of internall polling
poroti:
I recall when Monckton was here Alan Jones or some other shockjock pleading for Monckton to avoid the UN talks.
He now has his wish. 🙂
4001
glory
does that make you happy
Poroti
Did Monckton think he was one of the Chaser boys?
http://www.desmogblog.com/2012/12/06/monckton-banned-un-climate-process-offensive-stunt
Ah, stop being so fkn in denial, guys.
You’ve spent all day sucking up to Fran.
Women can tell when you’re after another woman. And they can especially tell when you’re being patronising.
The pity of it is, Fran keeps sweeping you aside, and you have no idea what is happening. And you keep coming back for more. Dillpots.
So, as I said, put your dicks back in your pants, and stop with your sexism.
Blokes are not better than women. Got it?
so where did riley get his little poll from
then considering morgan.
i often wonder why people start to disbeleive
polls that aredone by pollsters, when they
they see some other poll, that sort of drop out of the sky on a friday night.
why dont you ignore them
Oh gosh.
Earlier today, I made a comment which could have been construed as sucking up to fran.
Now I realise that means I’m after her, or something.
I had no idea!
and william why is not morgan polls along the side of the,site please
i have only just noticed that
waht your reason for that
victoria
:LOL:
kezza2@4018
Stop trying to drag Fran down to your level with your misogyny, misandry and sexism.
Ah. Fran.
Not solidarity, Fran.
Isolate the one from the herd that hasn’t portrayed a herd mentality. Deluge with compliments of one sort or another.
Make them feel as if they encouraged it. And make them feel as if the herd isn’t on their side.
Make that slut apologise for being fkd over.
Pity is, I thought you knew what was happening.
But, hey, revel in the adulation of blokes who don’t know you; but who happen to know how to close in on someone.
Must be herd instinct.
[Earlier today, I made a comment which could have been construed as sucking up to fran.
Now I realise that means I’m after her, or something.]
Kezza is off on one of her tangents. I am sure it makes sense in a parallel universe or whatever.
ruawake@4025
Methinks it is the sauce again.
Hello, bludgers.
Just dropped by to catch up on the scintillating analysis that sometimes occurs on Poll Bludger, and see it’s Speed Insulting Night.
I’m outta here.
would ari
have his comment on his blog about\
internal polling i trust his wise judgement and counsel
i think they just love to make labor people miserable and uncertain,
some times its good not read this blog
actually,,, instead analysing a poll that you come from goodness only knows where , just ignore
Some stuff that goes on here is truly strange.
victoria:
Monckton, like most do-nothing denialists has a habit of making himself the story, not the argument he’s trying to advance.
Says a lot about the validity of his views. 😆
[ Speed Insulting Night.]
You’re mother was a hamster and you’re father smelt of elder berries
poroti@4008
Since Obama got his second term, and hence no longer has to concern himself with being re-electable, the denialists don’t count so much anymore. And if the USA gets on board for serious action on climate change, the rest of the world will follow pretty quickly.
Is Abbott still doing truckwit, or was that just a day stunt? I seem to remember he was supposed to be driving to Qld, but haven’t see or heard from him in days.
He should go trucking more often.
Expect the batshit crazies like Monckton, Bolt, Joyce, Abbott and Jensen to get even more frenzied as the proof they are fools just keeps building.
what really annoys me these people in western sydney
hear this and think gosh, well and then follow the leader sort of
i think Julla needs to say this is rubbish
so the people out there feel confident to vote for labor with out peer pressure, peer presure can been any area of one life for some
i know nothing abou western sydney how big is it
is it poor area or what is there much unemployment
now if so why would they shoot themselves in the foot
and lose medi care ect hecs would they
now what the story about on abc after the state 7.30 reports
Just Me
[Since Obama got his second term, and hence no longer has to concern himself with being re-electable]
That is the reason I am hopeful in this term he will say damn the torpedoes full steam ahead. He has his place in history.
[zoomster
Posted Friday, December 7, 2012 at 7:50 pm | PERMALINK
Oh gosh.
Earlier today, I made a comment which could have been construed as sucking up to fran.
Now I realise that means I’m after her, or something.
I had no idea!]
Oh, please. Stop being idiotic.
I have my own opinion, as do you.
I just find it boring that blokes (apart from you) have spent all day trying to get Fran drunk.
Why do you think they wanted Fran to get drunk?
Apart from getting her to shut up, – and then spread her legs. Cos they like her intellect, but they just want to fk her.
Fortunately Fran has not succumbed to that pressure. I don;t mean getting drunk, I mean Fran hasn’t succumbed to the come-ons by the hard-ons.
If you guys can’t be honest for once in your goddam lives, how about you start now.
And, I can’t believe Fran is so fkn innocent that she doesn’t understand the flirtatious nature of the comments.
Nor do you, zoomster.
Kezza is off on one of her tangents. I am sure it makes sense in a parallel universe or whatever.
That is an interesting question. Can a parallel universe be at a tangent and still be parallel?
‘Lord Monckton’ the idiocy run in the family – his father did some really decisions in the 1950’s.
[Since Obama got his second term, and hence no longer has to concern himself with being re-electable, the denialists don’t count so much anymore.]
They are practically invisible here thanks to carbon pricing having been legislated. For a while there one couldn’t switch on the ABC without being bombarded with do-nothing idiocies mouthed by a plethora of IPA children. I can’t recall the last time I heard/saw do-nothingism being advanced by Their ABC.
Smaug,
“Your Majesty’s pronouncements are like a stream of bats p*ss”. Am really going to do Friday night chill out now.
CTar1
[‘Lord Monckton’ the idiocy run in the family – his father did some really decisions in the 1950′s.]
He is a perennial finalist in…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqkdcT25ss
Sometimes, kezza, a cigar is just a cigar – not everything is about sex.
People don’t want to get fran drunk to have their wicked way with her, they want to get fran drunk because they want her to lighten up (the whole thing started with suggestions she was humourless).
Of course, no one should want to get anyone drunk for any reason, but this is virtual drunkeness, which doesn’t have as damaging consequences as the real thing.
Harry “Snapper” Organs@4041
HSO, are you able to help kezza?
fess
yes, and I seemed to be bogged down in perpetual arguments about climate change on twitter.
There’s a few perservering souls who post “It’s all a plot by Al Gore to get you to give the UN your money!” type statements but they don’t engage in argument, even when I post provocative things about how many years it’s been since there’s been a below average month temperature wise, or that the permafrost is beginning to melt.
kezza:
I don’t read Fran’s comments, so I don’t know what the Fran getting drunk thing refers to, but rather than an obsession with sex, I’d say that there is a minority here who have an obsession with alcohol, and instantly imagine a person to be drunk when s/he ways something they disagree with. As we’ve just seen in relation to you.
I see that as more an immaturity thing, than a male thing.
Will all those people who tried to cyber bonk Fran after getting her cyber pissed, please report to the cyber office for a cyber spanking.
ways=says
hi harry
i came to have look see also and what do see
some poll from ch 7 that some one takes seriously
i am wondering if posters are havi g a bit to much christmas cheer
i also hate bad language
Back in my youth, when getting a leg over was a priority, I quickly learnt that the more alcohol a prospective partner imbibed the less likely I would achieve my goal.