The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
Bemused @# 3924
NP
Now do you agree with my argument?
In respect of “quoting” I will do it my way and everyone else can do what they want,
Surely everyone here has enough “little grey cells” (to quote an Agatha Christie character) to identify quotes from argument
Pegasus@3947
I’m here to tell you that in Queensland where I grew up and started bushwalking it was a koala. Wombats were never mentioned.
Queensland is another country. They do things differently there.
[There is no reason why the word “uncle” should be capitalised in this sentence.]
😆 i noted that too and was waiting 2 c who would respond 🙂
Steve777
[ … Julia Gillard Memorial School Halls’, the Government should have countered with “what rate of unemployment would have been acceptable?”]
Or even more simply … what have you got against schools without school halls having school halls? And while we’re on the subject of what the government has done for school infrastructure, what have you got against new libraries and new science labs, with new scientific equipment and IT in them? What have you got against education and jobs?
The fact of the matter is that those schools halls, particularly those in rural areas, were and are a fabulous asset. Not only are these halls used for assemblies, awards nights, indoor sport. They are also used for community events, and during the Queensland floods, they were used as relief shelters for those forced to evacuate.
Our school got some absolutely brilliant science labs out of it. I did my part by getting the interactive AV equipment and connected classroom elements installed. The parent community was thrilled.
As I’ve said before, not the least of Rudd’s stupidities was to go on the defensive about HIP and BER and to declare, Beattie-style, that “we will take a whacking in the polls” and to sack his minister. I’m no Garret fan but that looked weak, and doubly so because as far as I could tell, Garrett had done nothing wrong. Rudd took a strength and turned it into a weakness, allowing the LNP to look like honest brokers when they were lying vacuous pretenders. From that moment on “but what does the Opposition say?” became the obvious question for the right-leaning media — and IMO, Rudd was largely to blame.
Sheesh Sandgropers are a miserable lot. The headline “WA consumer confidence collapses.” and “consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in the December quarter.” Yet in the article we see…
[households’ perception of their personal finances with 31 per cent of people saying their circumstances were better than a year ago.
And 37 per cent said they had saved more over the past 12 months, up from 32 per cent in the September quarter.
……. WA’s unemployment rate falling to 4.1 per cent.
Despite the pessimism, 54 per cent of WA households said they would spend the same amount this Christmas as they did last year, while over one fifth expected to spend more.
Chamber chief economist John Nicolaou said: “At the same time, fewer households expect to spend less this year with the percentage falling from 32 per cent in 2011 to just 23 per cent this year.”
The average spend by West Australians this Christmas is expected to be $1,381, up 36 per cent from last year, the survey suggests.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/15576645/wa-consumer-confidence-collapses/
I think this was linked earlier, but quite a good survey article by Laura Tingle in the AFR (open access) on the difference between RBA view of the economy and (some) private sector views.
I thought RBA deputy governor Lowe’s reference to the previous environment of rising asset prices (fed by a much easier, and ultimately unsustainable, credit environment) feeding into different perceptions of economic activity, was a point well made
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labour_has_room_to_move_before_poll_Z2MjmKUvKpl68RvrvBzAWJ
Business Spectator is sadly misinformed about how many seats Labor holds in Tasmania – 4 not 3.
Kevin Bonham@3950
That linked article says Labor would “lose all 3 in Tasmania”. I thought ALP held 4 and Wilkie 1 = total 5.
[Queensland is another country. They do things differently there.]
😆 So us easterners have been told.
Anway, my OH is serving up a delicious lasagne which i will consume with a voracious appetite.
Dipping into PB before dinner is always an enjoyable entree 🙂
bemused
turn back the clock 12 months.
The Labor Conference.
And where was your “He Just Is”?
He was doing the “We R Us” pantomime for no less than a dozen journos, in a bar, in a Sydney street.
He was making fun of the PM, Julia Gillard.
Is that what you want from a member of a leadership group?
The undermining of a leader, publically, from within?
Shows where you integrity lies. Mate.
[ i noted that too and was waiting 2 c who would respond ]
Well, maybe the persons’s name is Uncle and Jack is their surname?
ShowsOn
[There is no reason why the word “uncle” should be capitalised in this sentence.]
There is if “uncle” is part of the proper noun “Uncle Jack”.
[He was doing the “We R Us” pantomime for no less than a dozen journos, in a bar, in a Sydney street.
He was making fun of the PM, Julia Gillard.]
You’ve got to admit that statement WE R US was pretty f’ing funny.
[There is if “uncle” is part of the proper noun “Uncle Jack”.]
WRONG AGAIN FRAN BARLOW!
Recalls Graeme Bond’s character, Aunty Jack …
Ratsars@3951
Yes, I agree.
But not on the quoting.
I try to make it as easy as possible for the reader.
Do you agree with me here: Socrates@3679
[Malcolm Turnbull @TurnbullMalcolm
Reflecting on Leveson: UTS Privacy and Press Freedom Symposium http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speeches/uts-privacy-and-press-freedom-symposium/ … via @sharethis ]
Interesting choice of photo by the Earl. You can’t help but compare and contrast with the oppositionist Abbott.
His views about media regulation however, are very predictable.
[Shows where you integrity lies. Mate.]
That should be maaaaate.
Bemused @# 3933
Kevin Bonham@3926
CO@3911
Seems like Ruddstoration is on again.
Riley on channel 7 had a near top of bulletin report on ‘internal ALP polling made available to 7′.
Do you really think that the ALP would release that sort of thing if it was correct?
My guess that it is made up by someone like Rudd, Liberals, take you pick for their benefit or the ALP has made it up for some reason.
If it was true you would find Gillard camped in western Sydney till election day.
How so, ShowsOn — (almost getting the anagrammatic response …
Consider
[Farewell, Aunty Jack
We know you’ll be back
Though you’re ten feet tall you don’t scare us at all
You’re big, bold and tough
But you’re not so rough
There’s a scream as you plummet away]
kezza2@3960
I never said “He just is.” Kindly don’t verbal me.
ShowsOn@3963
Or pretty f’ing stupid.
Us Queenslanders use to be the Sunny State – but now it’s the Dark state.
Fran Barlow
There may be more than one Aunty Jack.
Really wish Labor people would get over themselves and stop making excuses for spending a billion dollars on making the life misserable for a few thousand people who arrive by boat.
You down in the sewer with the liberals, get over it, live with it.
[So us easterners have been told]
Horsey, if you missed it Queensland is also an Eastern State.
Cue the conspiracy theories
The trend has shown a bit of a leveling off in the ALP 2PP and voting intentions since the middle of November but lets make everything about Newspoll because Dennis Shanahan, Peter van Onselen and Troy Bramston are the keepers of the vault called public opinion
… and so on!
[Indeed if it was really 44:56 Labor would be losing dozens of seats not just 8. ]
A uniform 6% swing would cost Labor 26 seats. But this poll is suggesting a 6% national swing based on anti-Labor swings only in NSW and Tas, with all the other states swinging to Labor. To get that national result, you’d have to have a 10-12% swing in NSW, which would cost Labor about 15 seats. So something here doesn’t add up.
Did I hear the smell of BOATS???
bemused 3887
Well Rudd was the front man, but did he make the decision re HIP on his own or was it Cabinet or the ‘Kitchen Cabinet’?
At teh time I was aghast but thought it was the Govt position and not just Rudd.
But still, Rudd makes a convenient scapegoat for anything that went wrong, doesn’t he? Julia the infallible, Wayne Swan and Lindsay Tanner could not possibly have been involved.
The evidence doesn’t support your alternative. They were all involved in the HIP, of course, but it wasn’t a program that failed. It was simply Abbott/media hyperbole about issues that were in any case state ones such as OH & S and consumer protection.
It was a bullshit campaign, and caving in to it gave it a legitimacy it would never otherwise have had. It is almost certain Rudd saw how Beattie had got away with real government failings through a Mea Culpa and a promise to do better.
The trouble was there wasn’t any failing this time, but by surrendering to the meme it encouraged even more bootstrapping – I think at one point Abbott and Hunt were talking about charging Garrett with manslaughter.
“Seems like Ruddstoration is on again.”
Well S&G didn’t work out well and they need something to occupy thier tiny minds.
[So something here doesn’t add up.]
It didn’t add up when Mark Simpkin ran an almost identical story a few months ago. Maybe he was running late after doing some shopping or something.
Wish I’d been around today to join in some of the conversation. Anyway…
I thought the PM handled the COAG presser really well. Made no bones about who was in charge and (hehe) shot Baillieu down in flames over health spending.
So nobody sulked or spat the dummy? So that was “boring”. Shows the level of the press. All they care about are crises.
spur:
You know as well as I do that Ruddstoration cycles around again each Newspoll weekend, either perpetuated by Rudd himself, of beaten up by Liberal shills in the media.
In fact it’s now so obvious that we are starting to see some media commentators ridicule him for his behaviour.
Ratsars, ignore my 3966. Here is what I meant to quote:
bemused@3615
A surplus or a deficit is an outcome of the economic policies pursued by the Government and should not be seen as an end in itself.
No Government should ever make it an objective.
There is so much idiocy about deficits, surplus and debt being sprayed around by a lot of people who should know better.
Recessions are caused not by debt or deficit, but by insufficient demand in the economy. If business and consumers are not spending enough then the Govt has to step up to the plate as was done with stimulus in the GFC.
Things are still not back to normal entirely and it is entirely appropriate for the Govt to still be running a deficit, albeit a lower one than at the peak of the GFC.
We can see the result of the debt and deficit hysteria in the UK where austerity is actually producing higher bebt and deficit as the economy contracts and Govt revenue falls further. It is a death spiral.
We need a Treasurer and PM capable of selling this message.
Went to a function last night, had a all out battle with a educated climate change denialist, I have no time for them anymore, too serious a matter to walk away.
Lot of people complaining about Liberal Light.
confessions@3984
Spur212, you were right… they are seeing “Rudd People” again.
[Spur212, you were right… they are seeing “Rudd People” again.]
Yep I wish Mark Simpkin would stop it, it is embarrassing.
[I thought the PM handled the COAG presser really well. Made no bones about who was in charge and (hehe) shot Baillieu down in flames over health spending.
So nobody sulked or spat the dummy? So that was “boring”. Shows the level of the press. All they care about are crises.]
The reporting I saw (7, so not a paragon of good journalism) prettymuch ignored the actual COAG so they could focus on a Ruddstoration ‘crisis’ instead.
[UMR has been the primary private pollster to the Labor Party both federally and in every state and territory for the last 10 years.
We use qualitative research to canvass and explore issues in the community, candidate attributes, and reactions to policies and communications materials, including television advertisements.
Quantitative work includes stand-alone mid-term studies, nightly tracking in the lead-up to elections and rapid reaction monitors in individual seats.]
In other words they do not do nationwide polling. So anyone quoting nationwide polling from UMR is playing with themselves.
Referring to Aunty Jack reminds me that I heard an interview with Graeme Bond a little while ago in which he tells of terrible psychological and physical abuse at the hands of his Uncle Jack, up Bathurst way.
It really was a dreadful story of psychopathic treatment of a child.
[paypal is interesting, it is an almost separate financial system. I get donations to my paypal account and I buy things with it, but the transactions are not in any banking system.]
rua – I was interrupted and have guests coming shortly so can’t stay long but I thought that I would see the charge coming out of my Visa account. Will check it tomorrow.
Glad you made that comment because it will make me watch it closely.
ruawake@3976
Oooooooh no it’s not.
It is the centre of the universe.
Just ask a Queenslander.
[You’ve got to admit that statement WE R US was pretty f’ing funny.
Or pretty f’ing stupid.]
Oh, yes, for once the MSM forgot the “context”.
Did you listen to the Conference speech? Did you?
If you had, JG was talking about Labor values, and about how We stand for Labor values, and how We Are Us.
Ah, but no, you fks wanted Rudd. And you were prepared to go along with a Labor leader who trashed his own PM on the streets of filthy rotten dirty Sydney by his common comment laughing at Labor values.
Any other true Labor supporter would have been aghast at his treachery on the streets.
But not you. Tell your stupid fkn leader to fck off. I don’ want him anywhere near the Labor leadership. He was just media tart who couldn’t cut it.
ruawake @ 3990
[In other words they do not do nationwide polling. So anyone quoting nationwide polling from UMR is playing with themselves.]
I agree with you and would add that ‘Internal Polling’ is not released and is kept to relatively few people so leaking is not likely. Sounds made up to me.
frednk
[Went to a function last night, had a all out battle with a educated climate change denialist, I have no time for them anymore, too serious a matter to walk away.]
You could just refer them to John Cook’s Skeptical Science blog. It deals very effectively in lay language with graphs and pictures with all the denialist arguments in circulation.
The last one of those I encountered I dismissed with “that’s just too silly for words. What other material have you got?”
kezza2@3994
You really do get wound up. 😀
Her speeches were mostly noted for their banality.
She seems to have a better speech writer now. Thank goodness.
[Christopher Monckton, Lord Crazypants of Brenchley, made a fool of himself today at COP18 in Doha, Qatar by impersonating a delegate in a plenary session. He was immediately debadged and escorted out of the conference, and is likely being deported from Qatar right now.
The UN now confirms that Lord Monckton has been permanently barred from the UNFCCC process.]
Desmogblog (http://s.tt/1w8G3)
frednk@3975
I agree.
It is what the voters want and if the ALP want to get re-elected, this they have to do.
[I agree with you and would add that ‘Internal Polling’ is not released and is kept to relatively few people so leaking is not likely. Sounds made up to me.]
Yep, plus why would UMR waste money doing stuff that other pollsters do with monotonous regularity.