Seat of the week: Adelaide

Kate Ellis’s electorate of Adelaide is a one-time Labor stronghold which has generally been marginal since the late 1980s, although she has enjoyed a handy buffer in the wake of Labor’s strong statewide performances in 2007 and 2010.

The electorate of Adelaide has existed without fundamental change since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, currently stretching from the city centre to the Labor strongholds of Prospect, Enfield and Brompton to the north and an electorally mixed bag of areas to the east and south. There are sources of Liberal strength in Walkerville to the north-east of the city, Toorak Gardens to the west and Malvern to the south. The areas south of the city include Unley, home to the high school which Julia Gillard attended.

Labor first won Adelaide in 1908, and it was usually held by them from then until 1988. It was lost in that year at a by-election caused by the resignation of Chris Hurford, falling to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt with an 8.4% swing. Labor recovered the seat at the 1990 election, but an unfavourable redistribution together with a swing fuelled by hostility to the state government delivered it to Liberal candidate Trish Worth in 1993. Worth’s margin never rose above 3.5% in her 11 years as member, and she survived by just 343 votes in 2001. Labor finally toppled her in 2004 when inner-city seats across the land bucked the national shift to the Coalition, a decisive 1.9% swing delivering Adelaide to Labor’s 27-year-old candidate, Kate Ellis.

In keeping with statewide trends, Adelaide swung solidly to Labor in 2007, by 7.2%, and recorded little change in 2010, swinging 0.8% to the Liberals. The latest redistribution has added 1600 voters in Vale Park to bring the electorate into line with a municipal boundary, which has garnished the Labor margin from 7.7% to 7.5%. The area covered by the electorate swung resoundingly to the Liberals at the 2010 state election, with Education Minister Jane Lomax-Smith losing the Adelaide electorate with a swing of 14.8%, and the eight neighbouring electorates (all of which are partly within the federal electorate) swinging by between 8.5% and 14.3%.

Kate Ellis is associated with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, the mainstay of the “Catholic Right”, and its powerful state figurehead, Senator Don Farrell. After serving her apprenticeship as an adviser to state Industry Minister Rory McEwen and Treasurer Kevin Foley, Ellis won preselection following a three-way factional deal that secured Hindmarsh for Steve Georganas of the “soft Left” and Makin for Dana Wortley of the “hard Left” (who nevertheless lost the preselection to Tony Zappia, but was compensated with a Senate seat).

Her elevation to the position of Youth and Sport Minister after the 2007 election victory made her Labor’s youngest ever minister, at the age of 30 – the previous record holder being Paul Keating at 31. After the 2010 election she was reassigned to employment participation, childcare and the status of women. In common with the rest of her faction, Ellis emerged as a strong supporter of Julia Gillard’s leadership. Shortly before Kevin Rudd’s challenge in February 2012, she told Adelaide radio that Rudd had approached her and other SDA figures at a hotel to ask how they could reconcile their “conservative brand of Catholicism” with “a childless, atheist ex-communist as Labor leader”.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Carmen Garcia, director of Multicultural Youth SA and a daughter of Filipino migrants.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,009 comments on “Seat of the week: Adelaide”

Comments Page 40 of 41
1 … 39 40 41

  3. frednk@1919


    Mixed review of the asian century.

    http://theconversation.edu.au/asian-century-white-paper-experts-respond-10370

    frednk@1931


    bemused
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 9:39 pm | Permalink
    …
    That was the figure feeney reported


    It wasn’t feeney who reported it, he claims to be a member of the branch, that is why I am asking.

    If Rudd be the messirh it seems very low.

    Still no answer to my question.
    feeney is a member of a branch in Rudd’s electorate and I am not. I live in Victoria.
    feeny said about 50, so that is it. I have no other way of knowing.

  4. Sensitive Tony ‏@TonyIKnow

    Having my pre #Newspoll radox bath with Margie, before the post Newspoll bloodbath with my colleagues. #auspol

  7. [Troy Bramston ‏@TroyBramston

    I’ll be reporting the latest #Newspoll tonight on @SkyNewsAust at 11pm with full details in Monday’s @australian #auspol ]

  8. “@TroyBramston: I’ll be reporting the latest #Newspoll tonight on @SkyNewsAust at 11pm with full details in Monday’s @australian #auspol”

  10. [Troy Bramston ‏@TroyBramston

    I’ll be reporting the latest #Newspoll tonight on @SkyNewsAust at 11pm with full details in Monday’s @australian #auspol]
    Stand by!

  11. no crowing from PVO tonight, no “cracker” comment from Bramston

    tipping 51/49 – well within MOE and Abbott’s net approval exceeding -21 he scored in Neilsen

  13. Troy Bramston ‏@TroyBramston

    I’ll be reporting the latest #Newspoll tonight on @SkyNewsAust at 11pm with full details in Monday’s @australian #auspol

  17. [bemused
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    frednk@1919
    …
    Still no answer to my question.]

    I don’t hang sh** on the current leadership group and I don’t claim to be a member. Now that may be rubbish just as your claim that you are a loyal victorian ALP member obviously is.

  21. [I know how he feels. I am often concerned that some here on PB seem to think Tony Abbott is a potential prime minister.]

    The guy who is the leader of the opposition (and thus alternative PM) whose party has been leading the polls for the last 18 months? Yeah, what are those people smoking with such outlandish predictions?

  22. Boerwar@1937


    Sort of half watching the ‘Mystery of the Hansom Cab’.

    Is it any good? Somebody I know has been recommending it to me on Facebook because a good friend of hers wrote it. But I forgot it was on.

  24. feeney:

    I’m not blinded by love when it comes to Rudd, so reckon I’m better placed than you to intuit what he’ll end up doing post 13 election.

    I’ve laid my cards on the table: Rudd won’t serve another full parliamentary term. If you think I’m wrong, state it here and name your terms. William can facilitate email address exchange as appropriate so we can bet on that.

  25. sprocket_

    No comment might mean little movement, and “cracker” has been used for significant moves either way. I find Troy’s & PvO’s hints worse than useless.

  27. frednk@1967


    bemused
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    frednk@1919
    …
    Still no answer to my question.


    I don’t hang sh** on the current leadership group and I don’t claim to be a member. Now that may be rubbish just as your claim that you are a loyal victorian ALP member obviously is.

    Fine, I will henceforth file your comments under ‘rubbish’.

  33. Newspoll

    50-50 2PP

    Primaries: ALP 36, LNP 41, Greens 10, Other 13

    Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 34

    Gillard: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 51
    Abbott: Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 58

    1176 sample, October 26-28.

  40. Rossmore thanks

    ‘frissance’ thril or shiver of pleasure.

    First time I have met a word in common use that is not in a dictionary.

  43. [Sensitive Tony ‏@TonyIKnow
    You guessed it folks! #Tsunami is the fault of the carbon Tax. It WILL wipe out Whyalla. #auspol]

  44. James J@1983


    Newspoll

    50-50 2PP

    Primaries: ALP 36, LNP 41, Greens 10, Other 13

    Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 34

    Gillard: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 51
    Abbott: Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 58

    1176 sample, October 26-28.

    WOW!
    Is that on the level?

    Hahahaha.. all the conspiracy theories on here about Newspoll.

    I still have the tin-foil hats available for all you folks needing them. All sizes in 3 popular styles. Send your orders via William. 👿

  47. [James J
    Posted Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Newspoll

    50-50 2PP

    Primaries: ALP 36, LNP 41, Greens 10, Other 13

    Better PM: Gillard 45, Abbott 34

    Gillard: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 51
    Abbott: Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 58

    1176 sample, October 26-28]
    He has done it again. The Claw should be happy that his vote was included in that figure

  49. Newspoll

    50-50 2PP

    So what now @Feeney/@bemused? Looks like Gillard is going to win, Rudd has been sidelined so he can’t even leak to stop it.

Comments Page 40 of 41
1 … 39 40 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *