GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.
Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.
UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.
The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.
UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).
UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.
[Do you have a link for that?]
The deal with James J is that he tells us these things before links are available.
What IS the problem? Kevin Rudd hoed into the OM today.
Rossmore
[Momma Andrew Elder was also a Lib, possibly a young lib, now IMHO one of the smartest analysts in the Aus social media (the media that matters, giving the growing irrelevance of the MSM).]
Elder (who lives in Bennelong) has been giving Maxine McKew a bollocking tonight on twitter. In short, he suggests she didn’t campaign hard enough in 2010 as she was upset by Rudds dumping. The Libs ran an effective “where’s Maxine” campaign.
[If you conducted a poll asking if you would change your vote to Labor if Mickey Mouse replaced Gillard, lots of Lib voters would say they would change.
Those polls are almost meaningless.]
Bingo. And there aren’t any equivalent ‘what if Turnbull replaced Abbott?” polls because that wouldn’t suit the narrative.
Unless the ‘Left Wing Union’ is prepared to be identified, then their poll isn’t worth a hill of beans.
Why can’t people just let Julia Gillard keep governing?
She appears to have been doing a good enough job to have convinced the sceptics, who abandoned the Labor Party since the time that Kevin Rudd’s polling figures started nosediving, to come back to the Labor government.
Kevin Rudd didn’t do that, Julia Gillard did that.
The Prime Ministership is not the gift of any one individual, no matter how entitled they think they are to the job. It is the gift of Caucus to hand to the person THEY think best able to lead them, and the nation.
As simple and as straight-forwad as that.
Poliquant
They looked at these optional leader polls in the US during the Obama v Clinton primary war.
They were heavily polluted my mischievous Republicans trying to keep Hillary in the race.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Gillard: Approve 47 (+5) Disapprove 48 (-5) #auspol
Yowsers!
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Gillard: Approve 47 (+5) Disapprove 48 (-5) #auspol ]
“that speech” meant a 10 point turnaround for JG. Hows that for context OM?
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Abbott: Approve 37 (+1) Disapprove 60 (+1) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Gillard: Approve 47 (+5) Disapprove 48 (-5) #auspol ]
fiona,
The really sad thing about No 96. One of them, anyway. Is that lots of blokes said to Abigail “It’ll only take a short time.” I’m sure you get the context.
Mr Rabbott in “Talking the country Down”:
Woundwort (“he had at the end shown himself a creature virtually mad”); or Vervain (“a heavy, savage looking rabbit” ; “the most hated officer in all Efrafa”)?
Discuss (25 marks)
[She appears to have been doing a good enough job to have convinced the sceptics, who abandoned the Labor Party since the time that Kevin Rudd’s polling figures started nosediving, to come back to the Labor government.]
Ah the old nosediving polls fiction. Pathetic.
wow 10 point improvement in satisfaction for the PM: brilliant
Sprocket 158 precisely.
Efrafa is only a shadow of Tone.
I’ll take the 25 marks, thanks.
Rossmore,
We’re going to pick up a restored Wharfedale turntable this week, after my son finished his HSC. He has taken a shine to all his parent’s old vinyl records out in the garage. 🙂
[wow 10 point improvement in satisfaction for the PM: brilliant]
Here here, fantastic, wonderful.
so we have the story: the PM improves, but it would be even better for Labor under Rudd. OMG will this ever end?
C@tmomma,
usb connection?
Marrickville Mauler,
[Discuss (25 marks)]
Won’t.
Grump.
TLBD,
Indeed.
So that’s a net satisfaction for PM Gillard of -1 and -13 for Abbott.
Not that such a metric means anything to me but the OM likes to refer to it. Well good, refer to it all you want then…
The steel lady is getting the recognition she deserves. And the spivs, cynics, and Tories better get used to it.
MYEFO is going to be interesting tomorrow. An additional note of interest. Will the Hockey presser in response be a worse one than the last response to DPM Swan he did last time?
In 2007 Sussex St asked ALP members to stop volunteering to help in the Bennelong Campaign – far too many wanted to dip their togas in Howard’s blood. To repeat the effort without that level of support in 2010 McKew had to be some sort of extraordinary member.She wasn’t. All this blaming of the removal of Rudd for her loss is excuse making.
OC:
[ Unfortunately the best course, his resignation from parliament is difficult with the current numbers – Labor is really caught in a difficult place.]
Which is why he’s still there of course. If Labor had won a majority in its own right, it’s doubtful Rudd would still be in parliament.
Why I posit that he won’t be there for the 2016 federal election. He’ll be long gone.
“@Elmo_Play: :)))) RT @Steph_Philbrick: Not only is Julia Gillard Australia’s preferred Prime Minister, she is Australia’s ACTUAL Prime Minister”
A few Neil Diamonds, Bee Gees, Abba in there c@tmomma?
According to Nate Silver, in a US senate race a candidate with a 5% lead in the polls 12 months before the election has a 57% chance of winning.
That’s pretty close to where we are at the moment here.
So Abbott has a -23 approval and Gillard -1. This is the really seminally important thing to come out of the poll, not the 52/48.
WeWantPaul,
Some people just don’t believe in reality.
After Kevin Rudd failed in Copenhagen and then came home and took Climate Change action out back to be shot, and then apologised to the nation for it, his polling, and that of the Labor Party, started to go into reverse.
The Labor Party didn’t change leaders midstream, whilst in government, for no good reason.
That you choose to keep denying reality, is your problem. Labor found the cure for their Kevin Rudd problem, and it was Julia Gillard.
[Troy Bramston @TroyBramston
#Nielsen Primary ALP 34% (steady) Coalition 43% (-2) Greens 11% (+1) Others 12% (+1) 2PP ALP 48% (+1) Coal 52% (-1) #auspol
10:54 PM – 21 Oct 12]
probably about to do his in the papers segment, so can now see this
Win by 5 or 6 seats and then piss Rudd and McClelland off,
Momma get them back in the house out of the damp garage, you’d be amazed how valuable those old vinyls are now….. Certainly more than you bought them for ….
Wow LNP has lost two points in primary
[ McKew had to be some sort of extraordinary member.She wasn’t. All this blaming of the removal of Rudd for her loss is excuse making.]
Really that is your considered position?
@sarahknapton: 60 per cent of http://t.co/XvCPjGoH voters who voted for Tories last time said they wouldn’t now – Telegraph http://t.co/FlsIIgTw
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Poll Primary Votes: ALP 34 (0) L/NP 43 (-2) GRN 11 (+1) #auspol
It is often said that the LNP need to be above 43 pv to win and theALP 38 or above. Interesting primary figures in this poll.
there we go, the Greens boosting the Labor vote again 😉
I suspect if Labor was polling 55-45 under Gillard there would be a poll out there saying it would be 65-35 under Rudd.
About MYEFO,
HoJo will come out before to say it’s “cooking the books” (he could do with a few cookbooks, judging from his last public effort) and Tone will come out afterwards with “this bad government”.
I sense this place and certain parts of twitter are about to become extremely vitriolic
Henry,
No, actually. Devo, David Bowie, Iggy Pop, Lloyd Cole and the Commotions(can’t wait to hear that again!), Flaming Groovies, Byrds, Tim Buckley, Jeff Buckley, Clash, Ramones, Slits, PIL, Brian Eno, Roxy Music, Captain Beefheart, Talking Heads, Pretenders, Tom Tom Club, Public Enemey, Prince, Salt & Pepa, James Brown, Supergrass, The Jam, Massive Attack, Roy Ordison, Steve Earl, John Hiatt, Nick Lowe, Madness, Specials, The Beat, many and various Reggae Artists who are not Bob Marley, like Toots and the Maytals. And lots, lots more. 🙂
43% lib primary is shock, horror territory for abbot, about what the Libs got in 2010. So after two years of ugly, visceral politics all they’ve got to show in the polls is sweet FA. As much as they deserve.
Yes WWP despite the NSW ALP being terminal, McKew was the only member to lose her seat.
The PB Labor faithful should pause to pay tribute to the architects of Gillard’s poll recovery: Robert McClelland and Alan Jones.
spur212
Why vitriolic? This latest poll is good
[I sense this place and certain parts of twitter are about to become extremely vitriolic]
Why? Trolls make similar observations here about X issue du jour, only to see x issue pass by unremarked upon.
Why is your observation worthy of comment when others aren’t?
Momma impressive vinyl there…. I spun The Beat’s Wha’happen today, still as fresh as it was 30 odd years ago.
Leroy@101
It was me and I said 1 in 5 was usually the maximum effect size. Sometimes it is very much smaller. (The Romney post-debate bounce yet another case in point.)