GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.
Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.
UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.
The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.
UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).
UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.
James J
I recall Kevin Bonham(?) said here a while ago that “would you change if” polls based on leadership, have about a 1 in 5 follow through rate, that is only one in five people actually switch parties after some polls have gone through.
TLBD
I have not seen it but I am glad it is. Some one in rural SA who breeds Coolie dogs had her 4 adult dogs and five pups stolen off their property last week.
48% on the primary vote in marginal seats in Queensland under Rudd!!! JESUS!
Puff
Hardly ever do
Why the F would the union (Which union??) commission such a survey?
There’s the narrative for the Oz, Tele etc right there.
Ignore Nielsen and focus on the “union” sponsored poll!
[There’s a union commissioned Galaxy in the Australian that compares how things would fare under a Rudd leadership v Gillard. Taken in Blair, Moreton, Greenway and Deakin.
]
Why would a union commission a poll which would obviously favour a Rudd takeover?
fiona,
Never on Sunday has some not very nice bits but should be compulsory viewing: it is mesmeric and the acting is superb.
William Bowe@79
I thought they were only accurate during election campaigns, and out of step with the other pollsters the rest of the time? Is that not the case?
“The polling conducted by Galaxy Research from October 12-15 for a major left-wing union and obtained by The Australian”
“@justinbarbour: @vanonselenp #newspoll tomorrow?”
Why would a union worry about that? I would expect they are getting their dosh ready to run election adverts.
Puff,
The ABC and Channel 10 have run with it in the last two days.
Beg your pardon. That’s two marginals in NSW and Queensland
Spur
Deakin and Greenway are not in QLD. In any case, we will take the 49/51 in the 4 seats with JG in the drivers seat.
well that narrows it… “left wing union”.
Is Mighell still active? ETU?
“@MrDenmore: @GrogsGamut @awelder Journalism Confuscious say man who relies on drip feed from single source ends up looking like drip”
Thanks James J
[There’s a union commissioned Galaxy in the Australian that compares how things would fare under a Rudd leadership v Gillard.]
Where is my Nostradumus when I need it?
I wonder, wonder, wonder what will be on the front page of The Australian tomorrow.
Ok, batten down the hatches for a MAJOR RUDDSTORATION CAMPAIGN in the #newscorpse organs over the next week
Obtained by the Australian? Hacking?
James J,
Thanks for your reportage.
You, more than anyone else, stirs up PB.
Is the HSU in any position financially to commission a poll?
1 point gain per month 12 months to go…rudd irrelevant
… except for assorted Libs.
James J@90
Do you have a link for that?
@guardianeco: Fears grow over Conservatives’ links to fossil fuel lobbyists
http://t.co/9gh2VcIT
ruddstoration is all theyve got…other shite all dead for them
If you conducted a poll asking if you would change your vote to Labor if Mickey Mouse replaced Gillard, lots of Lib voters would say they would change.
Those polls are almost meaningless.
kink
They still have boats
Two points
1. I doubt this union would release the poll if they weren’t backing Rudd
2. The fact some here would immediately say it’s commissioned by the HSU (who are disaffiliated with the ALP) speaks volumes
Diogenes
You said it!
“@senthorun: Xena, Warrior Princess. @RealLucyLawless, Environmental Defender. So good. http://t.co/a1nTRnSo #Greenpeace #SaveTheArtic”
Re: Union Poll in the Oz
In 2010, the ALP 2PP was
Greenway 50.9
Moreton 51.1
Blair 54.2
Deakin* 50.6
Average 51.7
Deakin is redistributed figure for 2013 boundaries
Implied National TPP (rounded to single digits)
w/Gillard 53-47 LNP
w/Rudd 55-45 ALP
The HSU isn’t a left wing union anyway.
boats schmoats….liberal policy now operational and it doesn’t work
[Those polls are almost meaningless.]
They reflect voters’ opinions at the time. You may wish to check Possum’s trend lines. How you interpret them is up to you.
Momma Andrew Elder was also a Lib, possibly a young lib, now IMHO one of the smartest analysts in the Aus social media (the media that matters, giving the growing irrelevance of the MSM).
On a different note, bought myself a ripper turntable today, a rega 3 24, and relived some classic 45s from the mid 70s. I feel as angry with the Tories now as I did then….
[If you conducted a poll asking if you would change your vote to Labor if Mickey Mouse replaced Gillard, lots of Lib voters would say they would change.]
Of course they would. It’s all part of trying to wreck the other side. To be sniffed at maybe but definitely not to be swallowed.
Diogenes,
I’ll take you shaker of salt and borrow a grain.
Hypothetical leader polls should be treated with caution due to the inherent promotion of the novel option.
[48% on the primary vote in marginal seats in Queensland under Rudd!!! ]
1. People always want what they can’t have.
2. Voters can afford to be self indulgent about Rudd when an election isn’t imminent.
your not you
and then not actually change their vote at the election…
vic
I bet that 90% of people here would tell a pollster they would vote Liberal if Abbott was replaced by Idi Amin, Pol Pot, Chairman Mao, Attila the Hun or basically anyone.
I certainly would. 😀
Anyone who has a problem with Lucy has … a big problem.
If you conducted a poll asking if you would change your vote to Labor if Mickey Mouse replaced Gillard, lots of Lib voters would say they would change.
Those polls are almost meaningless.
Those polls are
almost meaningless.Rudd is certainly preferred by lib voters, so hardly surprising poll result. I agree with William, deeply dubious poll….
[I thought they were only accurate during election campaigns, and out of step with the other pollsters the rest of the time? Is that not the case?]
This is often asserted in online chatter, but there is no basis for believing it to be true.
Diogenes
Precisely.
[Those individual polls are almost meaningless.]
Despite being meaningless this poll will be tomorrow’s news leader.
I can’t believe that Rudd is so deluded that he thinks he will again be leader – but he obviously enjoys disadvantaging his successor.
Unfortunately the best course, his resignation from parliament is difficult with the current numbers – Labor is really caught in a difficult place.
TLBD,
I will hire the DVD once teaching is over, and shall watch it with interest.
Were you aware that it’s 40 years since No 96 first went to air? There was a fascinating Hindsight today about it – and too right, there’s no way that any network would countenance such a radical program now. Really really sad.