Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest Nielsen poll gives Julia Gillard her best preferred prime minister rating since February 2011, best net approval rating since March 2011, and Labor its best two-party preferred result since November 2010.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 53-47 last time – Labor’s best result from Nielsen since November 2010. The primary votes show Labor steady on 34%, the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens up one to 11%. Julia Gillard has made substantial gains personally, to the extent that she has very nearly broken even on her net rating for the first time since March 2011: her approval is up five points to 47%, and disapproval down five to 48%. Tony Abbott is up one on both approval and disapproval, to 37% and a new high of 60% respectively. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 47-44 to 50-40, her best result since February 2011.

Also, James J reports The Australian has published results of Galaxy Research poll commissioned by unspecified unions targeting two marginals in Queensland (Blair and Moreton), one in New South Wales (Greenway) and one in Victoria (Deakin), which finds Labor doing much better when respondents were asked how they would vote if Kevin Rudd was leading the party. The results for a Gillard leadership are 37% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-pary preferred. With a Rudd leadership, this becomes 48% for Labor, 37% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens, with Labor leading 57-43. However, I personally find little value in this kind of exercise, which gives partisan respondents from the other side an opportunity to create mischief. The combined results in these seats at the 2010 election was 52.2-47.8 to Labor, with primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 41.0% for the Coalition and 11.5% for the Greens. However, redistribution has since weakened Deakin for Labor by 1.8%.

UPDATE: Full tables from Nielsen here, and leaders attribute ratings here. There’s nothing too sensational in the gender breakdowns in terms of changes on the last poll – indeed, the big shift is on preferred prime minister among men, from 48-43 in Abbott’s favour to 48-42 in Gillard’s. However, there’s no reflection of this in the personal ratings, with Gillard improving in the same proportions among men and women.

The headline finding of the attribute figures is that 43% consider Tony Abbott “sexist”, although another 53% think Gillard “easily influenced by minority groups”. Gillard is well favoured on foreign policy, social policy and openness to ideas, Abbott on “has the confidence of her/his party”. Abbott also has slightly leads on “trustworthy” and “firm grasp of economic policy”. The poll also finds a clear majority of 57% to 42% now in favour of the parliament running its full term. The Coalition is still clearly favoured to win the election, on 56% to 32% for Labor.

UPDATE: Essential Research is unchanged on last week, with the Coalition on 47%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Also featured are their six-monthly question on “trust in organisations and institutions”, which interestingly has everything up a few points after an across-the-board drop last time. Questions on “sexism and discrimination against women” find 62-67% of women and 49-55% of men believing it present in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (politics scoring highest), but smaller numbers in schools (39% of men and 48% of women).

UPDATE 2: The Roy Morgan face-to-face polling conducted over the previous two weekends has Labor in front on the headline respondent-allocated preference measure for the first time since January, and opening a 52.5-47.5 lead on the previous election preference measure – remembering as always the consistent bias in this series to Labor. The previous poll had the Coalition with respective leads of 52-48 and 51-49. This is off the back of the weakest primary vote for the Coalition since the election, down 4.5% on the previous poll to 38.5%. Labor has gained only half a point on the primary vote to 37.5%, with both Greens and others up two, to 12.5% and 11.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,727 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. frednk

    [If we don’t get a newspoll this weak it will be a four weak break; has that happened before?]
    If we don’t get Newspoll this week, it will be another three week gap, not four. However, might still come out tomorrow (Monday) night, as it usually does, for the Tuesday papers.

  3. 52:48 are another beautiful set of numbers – watch the Limited News media melt down and throw everything they can towards getting a better newspoll result. a big focus on McKewan’s book I would think.

  4. “@CraigEmersonMP: .@emilina79 Libs been complaining about personal attacks after vilifying PM for two years. When I debate policy they go personal. Go figure.”

  11. frednk
    [If we don’t get a newspoll this weak it will be a four weak break; has that happened before?]
    If there is none this week, and one next week, it will be a 3 week break (there was one in early October); this would be the second 3 week break in a row (at least of published surveys)

    Aside from the summer break/elections, two 3-week survey periods in a row is exceptionally unusual. Since the “fortnightly” survey commenced in 1992, it has only happened once before, during 2007, Howard v Rudd time.

  13. [C@tmomma
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm | PERMALINK
    For Newspoll to delay a week, it must have been looking even better than this Nielsen for the ALP]

    For all this talk about Newspoll having a pro Lib bias, didn’t William’s analysis show that Essential and Newspoll were pro-ALP with Nielsen and Galaxy being pro-LNP?

  16. If Newspoll were out tonight, Troy Bramston would have tweeted something by now and Peter van Onselen would be acting like an idiot

  17. [I heard they were trying to give Nielsen clear air and vice versa.]
    Ah. Anti-competitive collusion. What is the ACCC’s number?

  18. [ I heard they were trying to give Nielsen clear air and vice versa.]

    There’s the death of OM right there. Political polling is no longer newsworthy in what it says but for how it can best be deployed against competitors in terms of framing current events.

    FFS.

  19. Good news for Labor in general.

    Why is Steven Keys allowed to continue to post vile rubbish ?

    Confessions, drop with Rudd shit will ya.

    Tonight’s a good night for Labor.

  21. confessions
    [Is there a Newspoll tonight or not?]
    No one here knows. Steve Lewis said late last week Newspoll “should” be in the field, but he may have been just assuming (he’s DT, not The Oz), another person with a good contact said it was held over to prevent another clash with Nielsen.

  22. Predictions for the morrow

    Australian will ignore

    ABC will say that coalition still has a commanding nay election winning lead…

  26. Is it not true that no government has lost going into an election campaign with 47 or more of the 2PP? ALP on track to retain government then with these results.

  29. [I thought Galaxy was being pooh-pooh’ed generally.]

    Not by me. They ask some goofy attitudinal questions at News Limited behest, but their voting intention figures are as good as anyone else’s.

  30. “@MrDenmore: Seems to be an inverse correlation between Peter Hartcher’s ‘analysis’ and the outcome of opinion polls. He really is a dud.”

  31. William,

    Ta.

    What is the relationship between News Limited and Galaxy? Is it strictly commercial or do they have management connections?

  33. “@JohnJHarwood: Statement from family: Sen. McGovern “passed away peacefully in Sioux Falls, SD, surrounded by our family and life-long friends.” He was 90.”

  34. Leroy:

    Thanks. Amazing that NEws ltd would play games with the release of Newspoll results. They’ve been consistently fortnightly for ages now, until that 50-50 result when things started to go a bit unreliable.

    Why the change if you are simply reporting honest polling? And what polling period will the next Newspoll cover? Some period in the past, or a period more up to date? It’s hard not to be sceptical when it’s the OO running the show.

  37. I love the smell of Liberal fear. It is like my little Tenterfield lady terrier sniffing around the gap in the bricks in the house footings. She knows the mice are in there, shaking in their little spines. She can smell ’em. If she keeps quiet they just might get cocky and venture out.
    She is patient, she can wait. She knows they will trip up one day, she will be waiting.

  38. “@justinbarbour: 52-48 is very good. The gap is closing as the impact of the carbon tax subdues. I expect a similar trend in #newspoll tomorrow.”

  40. There’s a union commissioned Galaxy in the Australian that compares how things would fare under a Rudd leadership v Gillard. Taken in Blair, Moreton, Greenway and Deakin.

    Under Gillard Leadership:
    Primary: ALP 37, LNP 44, Greens 11
    2PP 51-49 to LNP

    Under Rudd Leadership
    Primary: ALP 48, LNP 37, Greens 9.
    2PP 57-43 to ALP

  44. Puff,

    Have you seen how the “find my dog” is gathering momentum in the press? They give Facebook a good wrap.

  45. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    It ran Nielsen-Essential-Newspoll from least to most friendly for Labor, based on recent form. Not enough data from Galaxy to judge.]

    Thanks.

    Funny, I am sure I have seen a table of relative average results of the 4 main polling companies and their comparative findings.

    …I wonder whether it was possum then?

  46. frednk,
    From the last thread:
    And if you once belonged to the young libs is that a blight against your name that can never be erased?

    Not only is one of the members of our local ALP Branch a former Liberal. He stood for us at the last State Election a little over a year after he had defected from the Liberal Party! 🙂

    All I can say is, follow your heart, not your head, when it comes to deciding which political party to support. As you appear to be doing.

    Don’t believe this ‘Broad Church’ rubbish from the Liberals. Their ‘Church’ is becoming more and more every day like one of those tiny little things you see in a one horse town in the Mid West of the USA. And, it’s got a Preacher, Tony Abbott, who is talkin’ loud, but sayin’ nothing.

    As the people of this country are waking up to that fact.

    Yes, Labor has an agenda. It’s agenda is the advancement of the Common Weal. Support for the working man and woman, and the men and women that represent them in negotiations with their employers, the Unions. Labor also cares for the environment, whilst balancing that thoughtfully with the need to keep people in jobs. Labor creates programs to benefit the most disadvantaged in our society, not promise to give more money back to those who don’t really need more, simply to enable them to buy a bigger boat, or go on another holiday. That’s why Labor supports a Progressive Tax System.

    So, frednk, that’s why Labor needs people like you. Young and enthusiastic enough to know that the Liberal way has some attraction, but that when the best of the Liberal way is translated through the Labor way, and is combined with core Labor values, you get the best of both worlds, and the best outcome for Australia.

    So, come and find out that Labor Party members don’t have 2 heads and eat former Young Liberals for dinner. We embrace them! 🙂

  48. There’s really no point in anyone saying the ALP are “on the nose” any more. All we’ve seen over the past few months is a steady washing out of all the fear campaigns and scandalmongering foisted on the electorate. The sum total of things the ALP ‘did’ that have been badly received are:

    1. Copenhagen and the dropping of the ETS
    2. Pink Batts/School Halls
    3. Changing leaders
    4. Carbon Tax ‘lie’
    5. Slipper as Speaker

    Evaluating their validity isn’t much use. They did play badly out in the electorate and that’s all that matters. But it also ignores a whole bunch of other stuff the Coalition has tried to get up.

    It’s worth noting that four of them pre-date the 2010 election. So the Coalition are really riding an old, old horse. The poor thing is just about shagged out now; they’ve ridden the life out of it.

    We’re entering into relatively clear air for the ALP. It would now require new scandals on the level of the old ones for the Coalition to regain momentum. Judging by the way the ALP have handled the AS situation (the ‘share the blame’ gambit), that’s unlikely to happen.

    I’d even suggest that any criticisms the Coalition can successfully get up against the ALP from now on will also reflect badly on their own policy approach. People are starting to notice the paucity of their position.

  49. [James J
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 10:26 pm | PERMALINK
    There’s a union commissioned Galaxy in the Australian that compares how things would fare under a Rudd leadership v Gillard. Taken in Blair, Moreton, Greenway and Deakin.

    Under Gillard Leadership:
    Primary: ALP 37, LNP 44, Greens 11
    2PP 51-49 to LNP

    Under Rudd Leadership
    Primary: ALP 48, LNP 37, Greens 9.
    2PP 57-43 to ALP]

    WOW!

    Thanks JJ, that is an amazing poll.

    When, oh, when, are they going to do a Turnbull LNP leadership comparison poll?

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