Gilmore covers a stretch of southern coastal New South Wales, starting in the north with Shellharbour and Kiama at the southern tip of the Illawarra, and extending southwards through Nowra to Ulladulla. According to the 2011 census results, Gilmore has the equal second highest median age out of the 150 House of Representatives electorates, along with the fifteenth lowest median family income. Such is its combination of urban Labor and conservative rural areas that it is actually the wealthier areas where support for Labor is the strongest.
Labor has only won the seat once since its creation in 1984, and has trod water electorally despite very favourable redistributions in 1993 and 2010. Both involved the addition of territory in the Illawarra, most recently with a gain of 20,000 voters around Shellharbour to counter-balance the transfer of the Batemans Bay area to Eden-Monaro. That turned a Liberal margin from the 2007 election of 4.1% into a notional Labor margin of 0.4%, but the Liberals easily retained the seat on the back of a 5.7% swing. This was especially concentrated in the Illawarra booths, where margins that had been inflated by a working class backlash against WorkChoices in 2007 were slashed by around 10%.
Gilmore originally extended deep inland through Goulburn to Young and Cowra, and was held for the Nationals by John Sharp from 1984 to 1993. Sharp moved to Hume after the Nationals-voting interior areas were transferred to it in 1993. Gilmore absorbed Labor-voting Kiama in exchange, which made Labor competitive for the first time and further weakened the Nationals relative to the Liberals. A 1.1% swing to Labor at the 1993 election saw their candidate Peter Knott emerge a surprise winner, with the Nationals only able to poll 5.1%. The Nationals left the field clear for the Liberals at the 1996 election, at which Knott’s 0.5% margin was obliterated by a swing of 6.7%.
The incoming Liberal member was Joanna Gash, a Wingecarribee councillor who had been hand-picked by the party’s state executive to target what at the time was a key front-line seat. Despite retaining a fairly low profile nationally, Gash achieved strong electoral performances both in 1998, where a swing to Labor of 2.2% compared with a statewide result of 4.1%, and especially at the 2001 election, at which a swing in her favour of 10.1% was the biggest in the country. Labor’s candidate on that occasion was Peter Knott, attempting a comeback two elections after his defeat in 1996, who was reckoned to have aided the Liberal cause by asserting American foreign policy had “come back to bite them” in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Further evidence for the Knott effect was provided by the 4.6% correction in Labor’s favour in 2004. Labor picked up a further 5.3% swing in 2007, roughly in line with the state average, which reduced Gash’s margin to 4.1%.
In January 2012 Gash announced she would be scaling back her political career by running for mayor of Shoalhaven in the September local government election, at which she was duly succeeded with 63.2% of the vote, and bowing out of federal politics after serving out her term. Gash’s simultaneous performance of both roles in the interim had internal critics calling for the newly introduced regime excluding state parliamentarians from serving in local government to be extended to the federal sphere. George Williams, University of New South Wales law professor and unsuccessful Labor preselection candidate, further raised concerns that doing so might fall foul of the Constitution’s injunction that federal members must not hold an “office of profit under the Crown”.
The new Liberal candidate is Ann Sudmalis, a former Kiama councillor and staffer to Gash who won a fiercely contested April 2012 preselection with the backing of her old boss. Opposing Sudmalis was Andrew Guile, a Shoalhaven councillor and education administrator who was supported by Kiama MP and factional moderate Gareth Ward. Guile had also once been a staffer to Gash, but the two had since fallen out. Sudmalis prevailed at the preselection vote with the support of 16 delegates against 10 for Guile, along with four for Grant Schultz, Ulladulla resident and son of Hume MP Alby Schultz, and one for Catherine Shields, a marketing consultant from Meroo Meadow. Guile went on to run against Gash in the mayoral election but polled only 5.7%, while still retaining his ward seat.
Labor’s candidate for the third successive election will be local party activist Neil Reilly, who was preselected unopposed. Reilly was initially rebuffed by the party’s national executive before the 2010 election, which rejected his endorsement by local branches and installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle. However, fierce local resistance to the move prompted Boyle to withdraw. The Nationals threatened to field a candidate as it positioned itself for coalition negotiations, with the highly visible former rock singer Gary “Angry” Anderson mentioned as a potential contender, but the arrangement eventually reached has left the seat vacant for the Liberals.
bemused
If I were rewriting delegates representation, I’d think 50% union (“the Party’s roots”) and 50% community. But as I know little about the way it all works I should just stfu 🙂
[David Horton @watermelon_man
If some guy wandered off street into a tv studio & started babbling offensive nonsense he’d be thrown out. Former Lib ministers however… ]
So true! But when their comments are free, ABC can’t refuse, I spose.
[Not to worry, he had what looked like a faithful and adoring little Chinese girl by his side in the Press Conference. That’s all he needs to overcome diplomatic gaffes in China isn’t it?]
Was he wearing a yellow hi-visibility vest as well?
momma,
She probably asked if he was Kevin Rudd because all Aussies look the same to her.
lizzie@1151
No lizzie, you should express your views if you get the opportunity.
The ALP is now too narrow and insular and that is a part of the problem. We need Labor supporters to be involved and preferably join.
Very hot and very windy conditions here today and the idiot next door decides to slash his paddock.
Bemused, you had me at “Paul Howes “. What a stupid arrogant young tool with a wildly inflated opinion of himself.
,
Places like Nigeria subsidise fuel, Hey wow thats working so well for them!
Marrickville Mauler@1157
As soon as I hit the ‘Post comment’ button I wishhed I had added that it is the sort of nonsense that plays well with the 2GB/Terrorgraph crowd.
Is that who he thinks our target demographic should be?
lizzie
This comment by Trevor Cook was interesting:
[The modern ALP places little value on union contributions to policy development, usually ranking them alongside the contributions of other pressure groups. ]
This has actually progressed even further to the point where, in Victoria, the state Govt completely sidelined the relevant party policy committee and commissioned Boston Consulting to come up with a policy for it.
[So is Howse proposing the price of gas in Australia be less than the international price? ]
The price of gas in Australia is substantially below world prices and many of the big LNG just would never had been done for a domestic market, they’d have lost billions.
Howse isn’t the sharpest knife in the labor movement draw.
totally agree Bemused and yes, he does think that. Not just the demographic (who may well be capable of better given better information after all) but those who mislead them.
bemused
[The ALP is now too narrow and insular and that is a part of the problem. We need Labor supporters to be involved and preferably join.]
I quizzed you a little on party membership some months ago (I’m not a ‘joiner type’ person) but was amazed that you seemed to indicate that local members weren’t very regular attendees at meetings of the local branches.
HTF do they expect that the ‘foot-soldiers’ are motivated other than their chosen and supported rep listens to them and explains happenings.
New2This wanders in… Hi folks. I need to contemplate my drive by intolerance… or something like that.
Steve Gibbons @SteveGibbonsMP
The most pleasing aspect of the Main Stream Media coverage of Gillard’s speech is very few people took any notice of their spin & rubbish.
I do remember giving Maxine the death stare on election day. She wasn’t happy.
[The modern ALP places little value on union contributions to policy development, usually ranking them alongside the contributions of other pressure groups.]
And this is probably how the unrepresentative Aust Christian Lobby has somehow gained equal billing with others.
bemused
[This has actually progressed even further to the point where, in Victoria, the state Govt completely sidelined the relevant party policy committee and commissioned Boston Consulting to come up with a policy for it.]
I have so little faith in consultants’ reports, from my own experience in dealing with them.
Shows a lack of confidence to invite them in.
New2This
[I do remember giving Maxine the death stare on election day. She wasn’t happy.]
An strong symptom of winds of change and also gone, understandably, quickly.
CTar1@1162
I suppose some members do this better than others but an MP may have several branches in their electorate and so getting around to all on a regular basis is a considerable burden, particularly when parliament is sitting.
Also, there may not be an ALP local member in a lot of cases.
My branch has a Federal member and until the last state election had a state member. We do see our Federal member several times a year and one of the state upper house members drops in occasionally.
But we also get other interesting speakers along so we are never without something of interest.
I think membership needs to be redefined to cater for people like you and also those who cannot get along to the old style branch meeting on which we are still based.
This is not an easy task as any proposal for change is immediately viewed with suspicion by factional players who see it as the other lot trying to gain some advantage. In some ways, the ALP is very conservative.
Happy to discuss further and interested in your thoughts and the thoughts of others.
[Marian Rumens @mrumens
Now #TonyAbbott has named the ACT #Labor win illegitimate, he can have a dummy spit until next ACT election like he has federally #Libfail ]
More Unhingement.
Will she make a come-back…
lizzie @ 1167
[I have so little faith in consultants’ reports, from my own experience in dealing with them.]
Yes, in referring to a lot of consultants, I spell it with a hyphen. I leave it to you to work out where it is positioned.
“@btckr: 1) It’s that old spin again. ABCNews24 just introed a story by saying Kevin Rudd again refused to comment on leadership speculation. #auspol”
“@btckr: 1) It’s that old spin again. ABCNews24 just introed a story by saying Kevin Rudd again refused to comment on leadership speculation. #auspol”
lizzie
the influence individual members of the ALP have on the party and its policy is one of those ‘piece of string’ answers.
Many members simply want to identify with the party and express their support. That’s the way they want it.
Still, they do have opportunities opened up for them that outsiders don’t – MPs attend meetings (when invited; we get back to the piece of string – if your branch isn’t inviting MPs, strangely enough they don’t come…), dinners etc and the party is increasingly using social media to involve party members in discussions. (There have been at least two opportunities this year for direct member comment on the future of the party, etc).
If members want to be further involved, it depends on their areas of interest. I’ve been a member of a policy committee now for over sixteen years. In that time, we’ve certainly kicked goals – arguably, for exmaple, the reason Labor was able to form government with the support of Craig Ingram in 2000 was because of policy work we had done with him on the Snowy River.
Our policy committee isn’t at all factional (we put rule changes through State Conference to make sure it wasn’t) so the members are just that – ordinary Labor people who are prepared to put their time in.
It’s in the nature of things that policy committees have less influence when the party’s in government, because we’re then competing against advisers, who are employed full time to formulate policies.
It would be ridiculous to expect that twenty volunteers working in their own time is going to be able to undertake the necessary research to write policies able to compete with that, so our role changes to one of community feedback.
The party does need to modernise, as all parties need to do on a constant basis, but the only members I’ve met who complain they’re not listened to never say anything worthwhile when given the chance anyway.
New2This@1171
Have you taken your meds today?
On this Maxine McKew thing…how long was Lindsay Tanner in the headlines for???
New2This wanders in… and talks shit.
No meds… just alcohol and 80’s music.
zoomster
McKew is not even lasting as long as QandA. Tomorrow is MYEFO day.
@Gary
Situation normal.
z,
Who is Lindsay Tanner?
bemused
[I suppose some members do this better than others but an MP may have several branches in their electorate]
My experience with politicians is as an ex-APS and UK Civil Servant. New ministers turn up with large amounts of interest in policy and can generally be expected to disappear off to do totally partisan tricks after that.
just watched the replay of Insiders, and very impressed with David Marr rebutting the Liberal Party mouthpiece Savva.
Good grabs of Hockey saying “fatuous” remarks about what the Security Council may be good for.
But what caught my eye was the vision (just before Talking Pictures segment) of Abbott giving his statement on “the next election will be dirty and personal” or wtte. His body language and presentation is revealing:
1. It is a prepared, rehearsed statement.
2. Abbott has this mannerism where he seems to reach down into himself, trying very hard to get his lines right, spread his arms and once he is a dozen or so words into the statement, lift his head – usually shaking it slowly from side to side.
3. His demeanor goes from struggling to beaming confidence when he realises he has got the statement out.
This happens regularly in his “door stops”, and if and when he comes under more scrutiny, these prepared, memorised (but probably not believed) statements, when challenged, may cause him to unravel.
Thinking about that. Interesting Tanner got free publicity for his book with ABC appearances. McKew not so much
@new2this/1179
No wonder the liberals are sooo 1950’s….
guytaur@1180
But the book is not released until 1 November and portions are being serialised on a daily basis in Fairfax in the run up – plus would expect all the usual range of media spots before and after release date.
Maxine has every right to have her say, but as I’ve said earlier – the main beneficiary will be abbott.
lizzie
I agree with a lot of what zoomster says @ 1175 but I think she has more faith in the relevance of policy committees than I do. There are quite a few policy committees so it is not surprising our experiences may have differed.
My experience with one was that it was heavily dominated by union officials with a strong industrial interest in that area of policy. Unfortunately, they seldom attended and so we were often without a quorum and unable to transact any formal business.
Their role was to be available to turn up and vote if anything affecting their union was on the agenda.
The people on the committee who were there to actually do some work were the unelected members who didn’t have a vote. After a few years I left disillusioned.
New2This@1179
Your psychiatrist will not be impressed. Better take them before you have to go back. They may not let you out on leave again.
dave
Ahhh. I thought this was the release date. Oh well Tanner is blueprint as to what to expect and there I suspect time will prove zoomster right.
Leroy,
The context of Paul Howes’ opinion on gas….
[A report released today, commissioned by the Australian Industry Group, finds gas prices are rising as they are being tied to international prices due to the development of an export industry.
A doubling of domestic gas prices is expected, as a result of the booming LNG export market. This will threaten the supply to domestic industries such as manufacturing. It will make electricity from gas power stations dearer, and household gas appliances much more expensive to run.
The report explains that domestic industries currently receive gas supply at $4-6 per gigajoule. While energy companies will profit from international prices that are above $10 per gigajoule, domestic consumers and industry face a nightmare scenario.
The AIG report shows that the gas export expansion will cause a $7 billion loss to the economy – coupled with increased greenhouse gas emissions, water contamination, damaged farm land and broken communities.
“Gas is getting dirtier and dirtier as conventional supplies run out and we go into coal seam and shale gas. It’s also more expensive. Rising prices are not the only reason to get off gas,” Mr Wright said.
“Modern electric household appliances are far more energy-efficient than gas equivalents, with less carbon emissions, and increasingly, much cheaper to run.]
http://beyondzeroemissions.org/
——————————————————————
For those interested in alternation energy provision, BZE’s latest report – Repowering Port Augusta: a blueprint to replace Northern and Playford B coal power stations with renewable energy:
http://media.beyondzeroemissions.org/Repowering_PortAugusta.pdf
bemused
nowadays there’s an attendance requirement for policy committees – miss three meetings and you’re off the books.
Really useful for getting rid of the chaff!
[ But what caught my eye was the vision (just before Talking Pictures segment) of Abbott giving his statement on “the next election will be dirty and personal” or wtte. ]
Is he aware damaging stuff is held on him by any chance and is seeking to vaccinate himself as much as possible in advance ??
If Windsor has him on tape or other evidence that he would agree to a CP along the lines now made law, I’d say he is dead meat politically ??
….and as a quorum is a set percentage of those who are entitled to be there, once you weed out the chaff officially, then it gets easier to hold quorate meetings.
Policy committees went through a bit overhaul in the last 90s, coincidentally just before I joined.
sprocket
Abbott’s last election campaign was stage-managed right down to the knot on his shoe-laces.
How the hell they are going to get him through another one when he is not facing a green candidate who is low in confidence and not long in the top job I do not know.
Abbott must be crapping himself at the thought of facing Gillard and the rest of the ALP talent on the next campaign trail. There will be no more ‘debate’ ambushes like the last time and no more low-hanging fruit to toss at the ALP this time.
Tony’s good times are behind him.
Tone trotted out Margie, again.
Not sure if already posted but a nice suggestion for Alan Jones’ swansong from Peter FitzSimons.
[My own guess is that some time in the next few months, he will do what the Americans did in Vietnam – declare victory and leave. My vote is for his swansong to be sung by Bob Dylan: ”And you know there’s something happening here, but you don’t know what it is, do you, Mr Jones?”]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/some-silver-lining-for-harveys-cloud-20121020-27y00.html#ixzz29ufwmj00
Chinese community in Bennelong loved Maxine and Kevin…
I will note, however, that many policy committees are not ‘country person friendly’ as they meet in Melbourne on week nights – a few of my friends have dropped out as a result.
For this (as well as other reasons) policy committees are encouraged to get out and hold public forums, which are naturally largely attended by ‘ordinary’ branch members.
Some of the best policy ideas we get come from ours, which have been held in places such as Horsham, Wodonga, Seymour, Bairnsdale, Warnambool, Bendigo, Ballarat and Swan Hill.
@SwannyDPM: New analysis in this week’s Eco Note about our record of finding long-term saves to make the budget more sustainable http://t.co/wQ9NMCer