Gilmore covers a stretch of southern coastal New South Wales, starting in the north with Shellharbour and Kiama at the southern tip of the Illawarra, and extending southwards through Nowra to Ulladulla. According to the 2011 census results, Gilmore has the equal second highest median age out of the 150 House of Representatives electorates, along with the fifteenth lowest median family income. Such is its combination of urban Labor and conservative rural areas that it is actually the wealthier areas where support for Labor is the strongest.
Labor has only won the seat once since its creation in 1984, and has trod water electorally despite very favourable redistributions in 1993 and 2010. Both involved the addition of territory in the Illawarra, most recently with a gain of 20,000 voters around Shellharbour to counter-balance the transfer of the Batemans Bay area to Eden-Monaro. That turned a Liberal margin from the 2007 election of 4.1% into a notional Labor margin of 0.4%, but the Liberals easily retained the seat on the back of a 5.7% swing. This was especially concentrated in the Illawarra booths, where margins that had been inflated by a working class backlash against WorkChoices in 2007 were slashed by around 10%.
Gilmore originally extended deep inland through Goulburn to Young and Cowra, and was held for the Nationals by John Sharp from 1984 to 1993. Sharp moved to Hume after the Nationals-voting interior areas were transferred to it in 1993. Gilmore absorbed Labor-voting Kiama in exchange, which made Labor competitive for the first time and further weakened the Nationals relative to the Liberals. A 1.1% swing to Labor at the 1993 election saw their candidate Peter Knott emerge a surprise winner, with the Nationals only able to poll 5.1%. The Nationals left the field clear for the Liberals at the 1996 election, at which Knott’s 0.5% margin was obliterated by a swing of 6.7%.
The incoming Liberal member was Joanna Gash, a Wingecarribee councillor who had been hand-picked by the party’s state executive to target what at the time was a key front-line seat. Despite retaining a fairly low profile nationally, Gash achieved strong electoral performances both in 1998, where a swing to Labor of 2.2% compared with a statewide result of 4.1%, and especially at the 2001 election, at which a swing in her favour of 10.1% was the biggest in the country. Labor’s candidate on that occasion was Peter Knott, attempting a comeback two elections after his defeat in 1996, who was reckoned to have aided the Liberal cause by asserting American foreign policy had “come back to bite them” in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Further evidence for the Knott effect was provided by the 4.6% correction in Labor’s favour in 2004. Labor picked up a further 5.3% swing in 2007, roughly in line with the state average, which reduced Gash’s margin to 4.1%.
In January 2012 Gash announced she would be scaling back her political career by running for mayor of Shoalhaven in the September local government election, at which she was duly succeeded with 63.2% of the vote, and bowing out of federal politics after serving out her term. Gash’s simultaneous performance of both roles in the interim had internal critics calling for the newly introduced regime excluding state parliamentarians from serving in local government to be extended to the federal sphere. George Williams, University of New South Wales law professor and unsuccessful Labor preselection candidate, further raised concerns that doing so might fall foul of the Constitution’s injunction that federal members must not hold an “office of profit under the Crown”.
The new Liberal candidate is Ann Sudmalis, a former Kiama councillor and staffer to Gash who won a fiercely contested April 2012 preselection with the backing of her old boss. Opposing Sudmalis was Andrew Guile, a Shoalhaven councillor and education administrator who was supported by Kiama MP and factional moderate Gareth Ward. Guile had also once been a staffer to Gash, but the two had since fallen out. Sudmalis prevailed at the preselection vote with the support of 16 delegates against 10 for Guile, along with four for Grant Schultz, Ulladulla resident and son of Hume MP Alby Schultz, and one for Catherine Shields, a marketing consultant from Meroo Meadow. Guile went on to run against Gash in the mayoral election but polled only 5.7%, while still retaining his ward seat.
Labor’s candidate for the third successive election will be local party activist Neil Reilly, who was preselected unopposed. Reilly was initially rebuffed by the party’s national executive before the 2010 election, which rejected his endorsement by local branches and installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle. However, fierce local resistance to the move prompted Boyle to withdraw. The Nationals threatened to field a candidate as it positioned itself for coalition negotiations, with the highly visible former rock singer Gary “Angry” Anderson mentioned as a potential contender, but the arrangement eventually reached has left the seat vacant for the Liberals.
[Big_Bad_Wolf1950 @BigBadWolf1950
Women r top multi-taskers. Yesterday saw a mum getting a pedicure, whilst breast feeding baby on left arm & phone texting with right hand!!!]
Wheels fell off the rickshaw when Kevin became yesterdays Peking duck.
Pegasus: AIG report shows exports will damage the economy???
W.
T.
F.
zoomster@1192
I recall discussing such a proposal but we concluded it was a pipe dream. Thank goodness it has come to pass!
So how do they replace elected members in those circumstances?
“@SenatorWong: TA conveniently forgets we’re a lower taxing Govt than one he was in. Tax to GDP yr just ended is at 21.1% – well below 23.7% we inherited”
[Chinese community in Bennelong loved Maxine and Kevin…]
We’ve been told this time and time again.
It’s one seat – full stop.
@News2This
Hows that new script going ?
bemused
countback, if there were excess numbers at the election.
Otherwise they don’t (which reduces the numbers required for a quorum, so that has its benefits)
@zoidlord
As I said. I was asked to contemplate my drive by intolerance and discuss broader something or other…
Poor Tone, flanked by Margie, said that Z should be given a chance to govern.
Maybe he didn’t see the “Labor or Greens will triple your rates” flyer.
New2This, another thing I’m not going to tolerate is your self-indulgent whining about the perfectly reasonable request I made of you yesterday.
Just watching the miniscule wasp squadron. Geez it’s a good series.
I’m not whining. I’ve taken the re-training onboard.
New2This
Worked out who that company was you were sacked from yet?
zoomster@1194
I was last on a policy committee in the noughties and I am unaware of any such rule.
Please advise where it is in ALP Rules?
I suspect it was just an informal arrangement on your committee and had no real standing.
There is no way to get rid of elected drones.
OH has just detonated a weapon of mass destruction in the kitchen… …coke everywhere.
…that is going to mean more Bacardi and less coke per class for din dins…
[coke everywhere]
You don’t have electricity?
Joe I may reveal one day after I receive my lost entitlements.
MM,
That’s the findings of the AIG report regarding gas exports, findings that BZE agrees with.
The issue received coverage very recently, for two examples:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gas-exports-come-at-a-cost-20121016-27p42.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-17/murdoch-survives-investor-protest/4318288?section=qld
zoidlord@1207
Obviously not working. Double the dose! 👿
[OH has just detonated a weapon of mass destruction in the kitchen… …coke everywhere.]
Will the ‘carbon tax’ cover this?
bemused
[8.5.7 d
Any member.. who is absent from three consecutive meetings shall have his/her seat…declared vacant]
here’s a good news story.
http://m.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/fleet-goes-green-despite-bumps-in-road-20121020-27y22.html
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s2868193.htm
i thought it was good to revisit what the opp
leader here said when the greens chose labor.
you foget so quickly
zoomster@1223
Wow!!! When did that come in?
Might even make it worth giving it a go again.
May I just make a fashion comment about the wifo of the LOTO?
Every time I see Margie Abbott’s haircut I can’t help but think it’s one of those ‘Try to look trendy’ numbers that are sooo age inappropriate at her vintage. She’s obviously been got at by the primpers and the stylists attached to the ‘Margie & the Girls Team’.
Finally got to see the Kevin Rudd interview. I note he finished it by challenging the media pack. To do their jobs. To actually inform the Australian public what Mr Abbott intends as his vision for Australia as Prime Minister.
Disappointed no one read “coke” and thought of a heap of white powder on the kitchen floor.
c@tmomma
I disagree on Margie’s haircut. Why is short hair inappropriate at her vintage? What would you prefer?
This afternoon attended the Whitehorse Spring Festival in the Deakin electorate. The Liberals had a huge presence…two stalls…one located in a prominent central location…couldn’t miss it…close by another stall with huge banners of their candidates for Chisholm and Deakin…lots of people on the ground with blue t-shirts.
Labor’s Burke and Symon combined stall had a less prominent location ..far more low-key in comparison.
As for the Greens stall….we had a presence 😉
guytaur@1228
Kevvie did well. His “Stop writing crap” moment.
I have on occasions noticed that some husbands and their wives look alike. I have been told once that my oh and I looked alike. I disagree and so does he. But the very person who told me that bears, in my view, a strong resemblance to her oh. I told her so but she disagrees.
Every time I see Mrs Abbott I think she resembles TA.
It is quite possible that after having lived a long time with a partner you copy each other’s mannerisms end begin to look alike. But only strangers notice it.
[coke everywhere]
Scarface, one of the great movie scenes
[Poor Tone, flanked by Margie, said that Z should be given a chance to govern.]
And so he should, all he has to do is present his case to the greens as to why they should back him over labor, Tone can give him some helpful hints and advice as what to do and not to do.
[It is quite possible that after having lived a long time with a partner you copy each other’s mannerisms end begin to look alike. But only strangers notice it.]
The same has been said about pet owners and their dogs.
gigi – She’s a dervish indeed.
Pegasus @ 1236
I’ve heard that before too …
Pegasus – I’ll leave the dog idea alone.
Castle,
[ Tone can give him some helpful hints and advice as what to do and not to do.]
I bet that the first piece of advice will be wtte “Make sure that all recording devices are OFF.”
Pegasus
I think it’s just that people choose pets that have something in common with their own families. Go to any dog show and the similarities are amaaazing.
I must say, CTar1, I had to check the meaning of “dervish” in my dictionary …
If Zed can bring himself to sell his a*** he might be able to form a government.
Denise @SpudBenBean
The ‘old media’ and Oppn forget that it is mainly LIB voters who want Rudd. ALP voters support Gillard. The polls tell us that much.
gigi
I come from a family with long generations so the ‘whirling devishes’ are a maternal grandfather thing!
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=60s++bob&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb
i still have my hair doo like the first picture.
only becauce its me
Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
Denise @SpudBenBean
The ‘old media’ and Oppn forget that it is mainly LIB voters who want Rudd. ALP voters support Gillard. The polls tell us that much.
spot i would say, where we prefer abbott lol
Evening All
Interesting day coming up tomorrow – where will the government find the $4 billion drop in tax revenue??? There are so many options they should take but won’t – e.g abolishing the 50% capital gains discount, making the concessions available through super more equitable, abolishing trusts, etc etc, etc
Instead they’ll more than likely tinker around the edges and whack the public service 🙁
http://www.cutshurt.com.au
who said there is a shortfall
Hello again.
Still very smokey. No wind. Storm clouds, but rain bands moving north & south of us, so little chance of a drenching to clear the air. Oppressive.
Read your post (below) bemused and wanted to post this:
[Has he tried going through a metal scanner at an airport yet?]
If the metal is titanium and/ or chrome (I’ve plates of each) they shouldn’t alert the scanners. I’ve had chrome since early 1982 and titanium since 1996. Never had the slightest peep from a scanner!
In an odd way, I rather hoped they would set off the scanners; but Nyaaah!
Not the same with medications. Got insanely barked at by a mean-looking dog in 1998. Handler yelled “Drop the bag! Drop the bag!” Big scene. I get led up to the security counter. Handbag & carry on luggage contents scanned & pawed over. And the culprit was …? Cortisone ointments, 4 tubes 2X.02 & 2x.05. Interestingly, I had pseudoephedrine to manage the bad sinus. Not then a drug of interest!
How things change! 2003, 2010 – no dramas over cortisone. But pseudoephedrine !!!!!!
Oh & in Aug 2010 I was wearing my moneybelt (everything small I didn’t want to lose, like mobile, cash, cash cards,jewellery etc) under my blouse, next to my skin. Like where else would one wear a moneybelt in crowded Heathrow, which is abso-bluddy-lutely ca-raaawling with really loud scruffy students & families flying to & from N Hemisphere summer holidays?
Where the security staff insisted it should be – over my clothes, in plain sight, where they (& loads of other people) could clearly see it!
My lapse earned me a detector & pat-down body-search by 2 women in a tiny room with a door that locked! OH thought it was hilarious! Told everyone (several times).
Youse have all been warned!