Seat of the week: Gilmore

Joanna Gash is taking her personal vote into retirement after 17 years, but Labor still has its work cut out in her Liberal-leaning south coast New South Wales seat.

Gilmore covers a stretch of southern coastal New South Wales, starting in the north with Shellharbour and Kiama at the southern tip of the Illawarra, and extending southwards through Nowra to Ulladulla. According to the 2011 census results, Gilmore has the equal second highest median age out of the 150 House of Representatives electorates, along with the fifteenth lowest median family income. Such is its combination of urban Labor and conservative rural areas that it is actually the wealthier areas where support for Labor is the strongest.

Labor has only won the seat once since its creation in 1984, and has trod water electorally despite very favourable redistributions in 1993 and 2010. Both involved the addition of territory in the Illawarra, most recently with a gain of 20,000 voters around Shellharbour to counter-balance the transfer of the Batemans Bay area to Eden-Monaro. That turned a Liberal margin from the 2007 election of 4.1% into a notional Labor margin of 0.4%, but the Liberals easily retained the seat on the back of a 5.7% swing. This was especially concentrated in the Illawarra booths, where margins that had been inflated by a working class backlash against WorkChoices in 2007 were slashed by around 10%.

Gilmore originally extended deep inland through Goulburn to Young and Cowra, and was held for the Nationals by John Sharp from 1984 to 1993. Sharp moved to Hume after the Nationals-voting interior areas were transferred to it in 1993. Gilmore absorbed Labor-voting Kiama in exchange, which made Labor competitive for the first time and further weakened the Nationals relative to the Liberals. A 1.1% swing to Labor at the 1993 election saw their candidate Peter Knott emerge a surprise winner, with the Nationals only able to poll 5.1%. The Nationals left the field clear for the Liberals at the 1996 election, at which Knott’s 0.5% margin was obliterated by a swing of 6.7%.

The incoming Liberal member was Joanna Gash, a Wingecarribee councillor who had been hand-picked by the party’s state executive to target what at the time was a key front-line seat. Despite retaining a fairly low profile nationally, Gash achieved strong electoral performances both in 1998, where a swing to Labor of 2.2% compared with a statewide result of 4.1%, and especially at the 2001 election, at which a swing in her favour of 10.1% was the biggest in the country. Labor’s candidate on that occasion was Peter Knott, attempting a comeback two elections after his defeat in 1996, who was reckoned to have aided the Liberal cause by asserting American foreign policy had “come back to bite them” in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Further evidence for the Knott effect was provided by the 4.6% correction in Labor’s favour in 2004. Labor picked up a further 5.3% swing in 2007, roughly in line with the state average, which reduced Gash’s margin to 4.1%.

In January 2012 Gash announced she would be scaling back her political career by running for mayor of Shoalhaven in the September local government election, at which she was duly succeeded with 63.2% of the vote, and bowing out of federal politics after serving out her term. Gash’s simultaneous performance of both roles in the interim had internal critics calling for the newly introduced regime excluding state parliamentarians from serving in local government to be extended to the federal sphere. George Williams, University of New South Wales law professor and unsuccessful Labor preselection candidate, further raised concerns that doing so might fall foul of the Constitution’s injunction that federal members must not hold an “office of profit under the Crown”.

The new Liberal candidate is Ann Sudmalis, a former Kiama councillor and staffer to Gash who won a fiercely contested April 2012 preselection with the backing of her old boss. Opposing Sudmalis was Andrew Guile, a Shoalhaven councillor and education administrator who was supported by Kiama MP and factional moderate Gareth Ward. Guile had also once been a staffer to Gash, but the two had since fallen out. Sudmalis prevailed at the preselection vote with the support of 16 delegates against 10 for Guile, along with four for Grant Schultz, Ulladulla resident and son of Hume MP Alby Schultz, and one for Catherine Shields, a marketing consultant from Meroo Meadow. Guile went on to run against Gash in the mayoral election but polled only 5.7%, while still retaining his ward seat.

Labor’s candidate for the third successive election will be local party activist Neil Reilly, who was preselected unopposed. Reilly was initially rebuffed by the party’s national executive before the 2010 election, which rejected his endorsement by local branches and installed former South Sydney rugby league player David Boyle. However, fierce local resistance to the move prompted Boyle to withdraw. The Nationals threatened to field a candidate as it positioned itself for coalition negotiations, with the highly visible former rock singer Gary “Angry” Anderson mentioned as a potential contender, but the arrangement eventually reached has left the seat vacant for the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,383 comments on “Seat of the week: Gilmore”

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  1. For Briefly, Dave, Robot and others (?) who had an interesting discussion last night(?) (the days and nights merge into one) which i appreciated…

    This afternoon on ABC RN – Big Ideas:
    [We’ve nothing to fear from a powerful China. As the Chinese economy booms & its military flex their muscle in the Asian region; is a fear of China justified? Or are such fears a product of prejudiced western minds?]

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/guide/abcnews24/201210/programs/FA1108H072D2012-10-21T130500.htm

  10. no no only my hair gigi

    nothing else. would be nice though few pounds since then

    but i adored that time. it suits me so i stick with bobbs

  12. [Interesting day coming up tomorrow – where will the government find the $4 billion drop in tax revenue???]

    $300 million from a special dividend paid by Medibank Private is one of them (remember Joe wants to sell it but still counts the dividends).

    The monthly stats have been showing better than budget receipts, so there is another $500 million.

    Finding $3.2 billion will be a piece of piss, a means test here a research grant cut there = MYEFO.

  16. How bad can it get under Newman 🙁
    [An Extraordinary Queensland Government Gazette1 released on Monday 8 October immediately suspended the State Planning Policy for Coastal Protection and replaced it with a new regulation2 which will be consulted on – but only after it is being used to make development decisions.

    “Many areas right up and down the Queensland coast, from Far North Queensland to Moreton Bay, previously received protections, but have now been left vulnerable to inappropriate development, according to Government documents,” said WWF spokesperson Sean Hoobin.

    The changes remove legislative protections in the Coastal Zone and allow developments to proceed within areas that have been identified as having High Ecological Significance, including many locations in areas like the Wet Tropics and the Fraser Coast.]

    http://ht.ly/eDzGJ

  17. [But Opposition leader Tony Abbott has used the media reports surrounding the book to accuse Labor of being “at war with itself”.

    “What the Labor Party has got to do is resolve its leadership tensions quickly. It cannot go on at war with itself, a house divided cannot stand,” he said.

    “Every day that the Labor Party is fighting internally is a day when it is not focused on the real problems that Australians face.”]

    Did Abbott miss the Court stuff his State Division has been going through, where AGM content has been decided by a Judge? Where Sinodinos got shafted yet again after being screwed by the National Party over contesting open seats.

    Tony look to your own before commenting on others or you may end up a fool. 😛

  18. Rua,

    [… or you may end up a fool]

    That’s very generous of you: I thought that Mr Abbott had achieved fool status many decades ago.

  19. [bemused
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink
    …

    The ALP is now too narrow and insular and that is a part of the problem. We need Labor supporters to be involved and preferably join.]

    Not that I am saying that I am fully converted. But how do you go about it, and if you do what do you have to do to be involved?

    And if you once belonged to the young libs is that a blight against your name that can never be erased?

  21. [Interesting comments. I thought they used stainless steel.]

    I don’t know about ss. Some mightuse it; I’d be cheaper! But titanium (inc screws) and chrome are inert – so I was told. Nor does the titanium plate (holding 3 bits of a fibula together) get nastily cold & painful in winter (inc in Zurich & Zug). Steel is very responsive to temp changes.

  23. fredn

    The best way is to go along to a local branch meeting (or, if you’re lucky enough to have more than one in your vicinity, a couple).

    You should be able to find your nearest branch and contact details for it on the ALP website for your state.

    (Don’t join as a central member – ie. directly with the State Labor party, because you’ll end up in a kind of limbo).

    Go along to the branch meeting and check it out. The members there will tell you what you need to do if you decide to join (different states have different rules and proceedures, so I’m not going to be prescriptive here).

    I do recommend trying out a couple of different branches, if that options open to you. There are branches I know that are positively toxic and others that are just superb.

    Of course, if you end up with a toxic one you can try and change it from within!

  27. Cripes, the LNP is trying really hard to look like those villains in environment focused cartoons who do things such as randomly destroy forests and turn them into car parks just for fun.

  28. [ruawake
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm | PERMALINK

    Interesting day coming up tomorrow – where will the government find the $4 billion drop in tax revenue???

    $300 million from a special dividend paid by Medibank Private is one of them (remember Joe wants to sell it but still counts the dividends).

    The monthly stats have been showing better than budget receipts, so there is another $500 million.

    Finding $3.2 billion will be a piece of piss, a means test here a research grant cut there = MYEFO.]

    Where does the $4 billion figure come from?

    Anyway, I thought the govt saved $5.5 billion from telling the power stations to shove it when they kept playing funny buggers about compensation. Held out too long, and suffered the consequences.

    Hilarious. And they cut production anyway. 😆

    And more for the govt kitty.

  29. frednk@1269


    bemused
    Posted Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 4:43 pm | Permalink
    …

    The ALP is now too narrow and insular and that is a part of the problem. We need Labor supporters to be involved and preferably join.


    Not that I am saying that I am fully converted. But how do you go about it, and if you do what do you have to do to be involved?

    And if you once belonged to the young libs is that a blight against your name that can never be erased?

    I have heard your confession my son and grant you absolution for your past sins. 😉

    The ALP accepts former members of other political parties. I think the rule is you need a clean slate for a year. Just be up front about it and I doubt anyone will take much notice.

    In Victoria, the best way of joining is to go along to a local branch and apply. If you have an ALP MP in your area they should be able to steer you to your closest branch, otherwise call the State Office.

    I expect other states will be similar.

  32. Joe6pk,

    Finally! Was beginning to think it was never going to happen. It is interesting watching the internationals come to grips with the cars on a tight street circuit too.

  35. [The ALP is now too narrow and insular and that is a part of the problem.]

    Quite the contrary, in my experience – and I’m not even a member & won’t be because, though I endorse (even help support & promulgate) most ALP policies, I hold opposite views on some core issues (eg Uni fees, nuclear issues & involvement in wars like Iraq & Afghanistan). But I’ve always had family members & close friends who were very heavily involved, so enjoyed handing out HTV cards & being involved in fund-raising and social gatherings.

    It’s been my experience that, when people whinge about organisations (esp when claiming they feel alienated from the org, or lack of communication between hierarchy & members) it’s the whingers themselves who choose not to read publications & web-sites, not to attend (or get actively involved in) meetings & work-shops, fund raising & social occasions, handing out HTV cards.

    As Shakespeare wrote in Hamlet (II, ii)

    [HAMLET: A goodly one, in which there are many confines, wards, and dungeons, Denmark being one o’ th’ worst.

    ROSENCRANTZ: We think not so, my lord.

    HAMLET: Why, then, ’tis none to you, for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so. To me it is a prison.

    ROSENCRANTZ: Why then, your ambition makes it one. ‘Tis too narrow for your mind]

  36. OzPol

    my experience too – just got back from a meeting where I was whinged at for lack of communication – pointed out that I had made multiple requests for contact details!

  38. joe i enjoyed the race but have to confess i may
    barack for mercedes next year great to see more
    companies years ago we even had mini s
    love to see the VW back too

  39. my say
    Sorry my say but I think they should just leave it to the V8s
    Last time they tried the world touring car stuff was a disaster

  40. Ducky,

    Ha! The regular drivers have mastered the cars over time and make driving them look easy, clinical almost. Watching the international drivers take on the unwieldy cars, you are reminded all over again how much you have to monster the cars to win!

  42. This little black duck

    [An Italian soldier from WWII turned up at the El Alamein commemorations to pay tribute. Chivalry is alive.]
    He might have been one of the soldiers I read about in Rommel’s diaries. A couple of hundred Italian soldiers had been captured near El Alamein. They were being escorted back to Allied lines by a small number of Australian soldiers. Rommel sent a couple of armoured cars to rescue them. Heavily out gunned the Australians ran for it. Poor old Erwin was utterly boggled when he observed the Italian troops “ran the wrong way” and and headed for the Allied lines. He did not seem to think the direction they ran was anything other than a mistake on their part 😆

  43. [Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said Labor could not be trusted with public money.

    “Their record is always the same – it’s more spending, it’s higher taxes and it’s cooking the books,” he told reporters in Sydney.]
    Abbott is just so, so incisive and constructive.

  45. OzPol Tragic@1285


    The ALP is now too narrow and insular and that is a part of the problem.


    Quite the contrary, in my experience – and I’m not even a member & won’t be because, though I endorse (even help support & promulgate) most ALP policies, I hold opposite views on some core issues (eg Uni fees, nuclear issues & involvement in wars like Iraq & Afghanistan). But I’ve always had family members & close friends who were very heavily involved, so enjoyed handing out HTV cards & being involved in fund-raising and social gatherings.

    It’s been my experience that, when people whinge about organisations (esp when claiming they feel alienated from the org, or lack of communication between hierarchy & members) it’s the whingers themselves who choose not to read publications & web-sites, not to attend (or get actively involved in) meetings & work-shops, fund raising & social occasions, handing out HTV cards.

    I don’t whinge and I get involved to the extent I want to or can afford the time for.

    I don’t want to see more people like me in the ALP but rather more people who are less like me! We need greater diversity.

    So what are your views on the issues you listed?

  46. ***RAIN***STORM*** The mountains, and high level oceanic easterlies’ meeting the front moving eastwards have worked their magic!

    Not much in it yet; but any is better than none. At least it’ll wash smoke out of the air. Just before rain started, I could smell fire, not just smoke; not a good sign!

    25+mm would be great, please, Jupiter Pluvius! That would douse the fires.

  47. I posted earlier today on the ACT election thread that the Liberals under Zed have apparently won the battle but lost the war.

    That is, they put incredible resources into one seat (Brindabella) and look to have gained a member there but in the ACT as a whole their total vote is currently below that of the ALP (38.7% Lib, 39.0% Lab). In the other two electorates the Liberal vote is substantially below that of Labor.

    The ACT electoral commission progress count is at http://www.electionresults.act.gov.au/

    After the Liberal campaign slogan claiming that Labor + Greens will triple rates, there is little incentive for the Greens to assist the Liberals to form government. The Liberals nonetheless apparently believe that the Greens have an obligation to support them. The Greens should be able to make a quicker decision on whom to support than they did in 2008, mostly because they know what sort of relationship they have had with Liberal and Labor over the last four years.

  48. citizen@1297


    I posted earlier today on the ACT election thread that the Liberals under Zed have apparently won the battle but lost the war.

    That is, they put incredible resources into one seat (Brindabella) and look to have gained a member there but in the ACT as a whole their total vote is currently below that of the ALP (38.7% Lib, 39.0% Lab). In the other two electorates the Liberal vote is substantially below that of Labor.

    The ACT electoral commission progress count is at http://www.electionresults.act.gov.au/

    After the Liberal campaign slogan claiming that Labor + Greens will triple rates, there is little incentive for the Greens to assist the Liberals to form government. The Liberals nonetheless apparently believe that the Greens have an obligation to support them. The Greens should be able to make a quicker decision on whom to support than they did in 2008, mostly because they know what sort of relationship they have had with Liberal and Labor over the last four years.

    So does that mean that the ALP and Greens now have a mandate to triple rates? 👿

  50. RE federal government budget

    During the week AFR reported on decline of revenue from tobacco excise, 2011-12 at $5.45bn (from $6.39bn in 2010-11).

    Speculation of an increase the excise by 25% on 1 Dec, raising $1.25bn pa.

    (Possibly at some cost of opinion polls: I have a vague recollection that a poster here, perhaps Psephos, remarked on the relationship between govt approval and increases in cigarette prices)

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