This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.
The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.
sprocket, as the old maxim goes: the best business is repeated business.
ruawake,
[On a serious note.
Worldwide, an estimated 169·3 million years of healthy life were lost because of cancer in 2008.
What a waste. { Especially when it could have been prevented}
[ A heavy smoker of unfiltered cigarettes from the age of eleven, Kristel was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2001 and underwent three courses of chemotherapy, and surgery after the disease spread to her lungs. On 12 June 2012, she suffered a stroke and was hospitalized in a critical condition. She died in her sleep, aged 60, on 17 October 2012, from esophageal and lung cancer. ]
Link,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvia_Kristel
confessions@4400
20,000 smoking cancer related deaths per year in our small country – the same a a jumbo jet crashing every week, every year killing all aboard.
Big tobacco world wide channel over 90% of political donations WORLD WIDE to rummels liberal party mates.
Why ??
20,000 smoking cancer related deaths per year in our small country – the same a a jumbo jet crashing every week, every year killing all aboard.
Carey Moore
[Thank the goddesses that the brown snakes prefer flight to fight, otherwise I would never leave the house! ]
Actually the browns tend to be more fiesty. Now for one of the many bad things about the cane toads. The King Brown is actually a member of the Black Snake family. They eat brown snakes, amongst other things. They are also big enough to eat cane toads………….and die. Which means hey ho party time for the brown snakes which apart from now being less often eaten by the king browns are too small to eat cane toads. End result ? Way more way more venomous brown snakes wandering about.
I gave up close to 5 yrs ago. hard to do but you really want to give up. I hate the smell now
joe,
I hail your resolve. It’s such a pernicious habit for the tobacco addicts. Weaning yourself takes time, courage and effort.
scorpio
On this case Scorpio i respectfully disagree. Those quotes are direct out of the news papers , open source and made by union members.
Again, i am more then happy to see the outcome of the court case. Just like the outcome of the Slipper case. Now Labor supporters have attacked continually and inappropriately a potential victim of sexual harassment based on no Information appart from News Paper quotes, drips and drabs leaked out and on clear party lines. The vitriol launched at Ashby (a non public figure) because of his alleged attempt to bring down the government with out any due regard for his health or well-being or the slight chance he might just be telling the truth.
Ashby may just turn out to be a lib fraud who has made false statements, however he is not a public figure who deserves just as much right to his mental health, family health and so forth as Slipper. This has clearly been lost by many Labor members and supporters. However i have been personally shock at the attacks by Labor suporters in an attempted to defend Slipper (lib) in attempt to save the Government . People on this site have called for him to be destroyed by the government for no other reason to protect the Government.
If you wish to lunch me for quotes of Labor Members then go ahead. However if you cant not see the clear double standards on this site then you and your fellow travelers are lost the the complete blindness of holding government at all cost.
scorpio, I have not turned further to the right, i have in fact mellowed over the 6 months. The real change is that of Labor and its members…….. and we shall see if this path leads to election win for Labor.
In closing, the Libs have not played nice and i lay alot of the blame for where we are on there shoulders.
I hope the family is well.
sprocket
From your link. Here is video of Christian Kerr of the Oz explaining how the journos,got it right re JG speech. Talk about talking crap!!!
http://video.theaustralian.com.au/2289902086/Gallery-1-Twitter-0?area=videohighlights1
dave:
My first uncle died of lung cancer yet gave up 15 years ago. My second uncle has jsut been diagnosed, but he is older and gave up around 5 or so years ago. My friend’s brother never smoked, but had a family history of bowel cancer, however I think he died of pancreatic cancer. Not sure.
ru is right: such a waste, and a waste of lives no old at all.
vic,
Just back from a few drinks with your favoured local candidate.
He’s lookng and sounding very confident.
GG
As i previously noted, i have received literature from Rick. Although our neighbourhood has been inundated with pickets of fhe other candidates.
vic,
Fox is a Bundoora candidate. Apparently, a lot of his signs are pitched on public land which is apprently illegal.
rummel,
[ scorpio
On this case Scorpio i respectfully disagree. Those quotes are direct out of the news papers , open source and made by union members. ]
Yeah mate. I never doubted that for a minute. The thing is, is that you don’t even know their motivation.
Those statements are made without a skerick of proof and leave the authors open to legal action in the event that Mr Thomson is found to not have undertaken “any” illegal action.
There’s an awful strong case that Mr Thomson will be found not to have done so.
Therefore, these people, acting without any proof except that which they have read in a newspaper (to be repeated at one’s peril IMO) have gone off half cocked, probably with partisan political motives and leave themselves open to getting their arrrssss sued right off.
Not smart to join in with them There is not safety in numbers when defamation is involved. Just more money for those defamed.
My main intent was to not see you come across as a stupid, right wing, twit. I don’t think you are.
Don’t prove me wrong for goodness sakes.
GG
fox has signs everywhere in the Grimshaw ward area. I have also seen a couple for Beard.
In any case, my family will be voting for Rick. He atfended the same school as my kids. Only right to support a former fellow student. 🙂
Black Duck
[There are about 250,000 on the ACT electoral roll. About 45,000 have pre-polled. That’s a lot who won’t be in Canberra tomorrow.]
When I lived in Canberra I always pre-polled as I couldn’t be bothered lining up in the queue to vote. I wonder if I broke a law. I certainly never left the city on those days.
Re the Security Council and Australia’s election:
Given the MSM have decided that Abbott will romp home when the election is held, his firm opposition from day one to our attempt to gain a seat, and also given his intention tol demolish or turn back everything that the Government has achieved, can we look forward to both pulling out of the Security Council (asking, of course, for our chocolate koalas back) or even go further and withdraw entirely from the UN? I faintly remember a couple of dictators doing something similar in the 30’s, except it wasn’t called the UN then.
We could form our own little haven of paradise in the Antipodes here, blowing up any nasty boats that happened to call our way – sorry Queen Mary II – but you might be full of those unmentionable illegal immigrants coming to take all our jobs, eat our children and turn us all into people who have to wear black.
Gosh, I’m looking forward to the next election. I doubt if I’ll have to use it but thank goodness I also have a UK/EU passport and can go and live in a civilised country with no economic problems – like Greece, for example. Or I could learn Romanian and become a “traveller”, ending up in some idyllic English village where the Daily Mail and Daily Express can rant and rave about my lifestyle.
Certainly anything will be better than living under Abbott – although I’m getting a foretaste of it here in beautiful, sunny, enervating Queensland under that paragon of good government, Mr Newman – crap one day, crappier the next! I didn’t even vote for him and I want to slash my wrists! Picture those poor disillusioned voters who did.
Romney looks in with a real chance on latest polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Greensborough Growler
got a bank now from Cranbourne,
Tomorrow should be fun
Allan,
I, and OH, pre-polled to check out the electronic voting. It rocks, even if it is still a bit rocky.
Dave
[20,000 smoking cancer related deaths per year in our small country – the same a a jumbo jet crashing every week, every year killing all aboard.]
Future generations are going to look back at smoking deaths as a sign of how stupid we were, just as we look back at Flat Earth, blood letting for any illness, etc etc
vic,
Tell all your neighbours.
I’ll be doing HTV at Watsonia PS late. If your’e in the area, I’m the guy in the hat.
joe,
Good punting, comrade.
[I faintly remember a couple of dictators doing something similar in the 30′s, except it wasn’t called the UN then.]
It also was a completely different organisation with a completely different structure 😛
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 at 9:57 pm | PERMALINK
Romney looks in with a real chance on latest polling.]
Actually Obama was solidifying his position a little before the recent debate win and the next couple of days of polling are going to be fascinating. Obama is still much more likely to win given the distribution of electoral college votes than Romney, even if things don’t move much from where they are right now.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Obama is trending upwards again but not as sharply as he was trending downwards last week.
Next debate is going to be crucial for both candidates.
GG
Obama was ahead in all todays five polls of swing states ; Wisconsin, NH, Ohio, Nevada and Florida.
RCP are Republican shills.
In Nate and electoral-vote we trust.
Mod Lib,
Stuff I’m reading says the movement is in Romney’s direction.
Could be a cliff hanger.
Diogenes’
Racing tips about 11.00 am old time tomorrow
old = qld
The second assignments have been marked and returned, and my bullet-proof vest is unscathed.
The last class has ended.
One lecture to go, another assignment to mark (but not for a fortnight or so).
This has been a v busy week and moi is v sleepy. However, moi will stay around looking for a few convenient humanes to smooge, then it’s gunna be a quiet weekend.
GG
I will recommend Rick to the neighbours. I usually vote at Watsonia North, but I may swing by to say hello if I get the opportunity.
[My main intent was to not see you come across as a stupid, right wing, twit. I don’t think you are.]
Fair call. As i stated, i have mellowed over the past six months. Openly call for Abbott to go, openly state that i am no longer a denier and will pay my C02 tax without complaining. Overall we libs dont have much to cheer. What has change a lot is Labor and its supporters. Im not sure if your collectively snappy because your in fighting mode because you know a win is coming or collectively snappy because of a libs win….. You know as well as Bemused that i like a good dig at Labor, however i am going to lay off it until the next election as things are being coming way to serious and touchy.
Diogs,
I spy someone with their fingers in their ears, eyes closed and stamping their feet wildy as they scream “No, No, No”!
Sorry Carey, not being an expert on emoticons I’m not sure what yours is telling me (are you sticking out your tongue at me or is it something more sympathetic?).
I’m aware of the fact re the UN, League of Nations but it just seemed to fit in with my lamentable attempt at satirical humour. 🙂
Diog,
[… just as we look back at Flat Earth, blood letting for any illness, etc etc]
White lead as a cosmetic, perhaps?
Greensborough Growler@4417
Quite different here –
http://electoral-vote.com/
Assumptions/ projections ??
[Future generations are going to look back at smoking deaths as a sign of how stupid we were, just as we look back at Flat Earth, blood letting for any illness, etc etc]
The next thing is obesity.
Allan Moyes,
[ Certainly anything will be better than living under Abbott – although I’m getting a foretaste of it here in beautiful, sunny, enervating Queensland under that paragon of good government, Mr Newman – crap one day, crappier the next! I didn’t even vote for him and I want to slash my wrists! Picture those poor disillusioned voters who did. ]
You mean those poor disillusioned soles that thought it could never happen to them, that Can Do meant everything he said and now, they find themselves unemployed, the bank about to take their house off them and whose life has suddenly lost all sense of meaning?
They will have a lot of company if Abbott ever gets the chance to get his feet across the threshold of the Lodge!
Dog willing, it will end up as nothing more than a bad dream!
@dave/4436
That’s why i was confused earlier and wanted clarification…
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 at 10:04 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib,
Stuff I’m reading says the movement is in Romney’s direction.
Could be a cliff hanger.]
There was definitely a movement to Romney after the first debate, it was stalled after the VP debate and now it is heading towards Obama (this is before the post-debate polling has come on-line).
Check out 538:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
Not that I believe the actual percentage from this site but Nate has a calculation that nicely shows the trend. Obama peaked at 86.1% likely to win, then crashed to 61.1% after debate 1 and today he is up to 70.4%.
We wont know the effect of the second debate till early next week, but its likely to be even better for Obama given the polling for debate 2.
Also, in the latest polls in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan Obama is ahead. If he wins Ohio he will win. If he wins the others without Ohio, he will win.
Diogenes@4420
I just want to know why all concerned are not in jail.
Thats even before talking about the liberals taking political donations from these killers.
[Sorry Carey, not being an expert on emoticons I’m not sure what yours is telling me (are you sticking out your tongue at me or is it something more sympathetic?).]
Just harmless ribbing 🙂
fess
We are living in a very strange world where obesity is considered the worlds main health problem.
My father died of lung cancer in 1989.
The next year we moved to Myrtleford, prime tobacco growing country, where it was not uncommon for local businesses such as banks to have signs encouraging customers to smoke….
Had a very nice letter from CollectionPoint today.
Seems a cheque for $15,000.00 has been mailed to me and OH “at an unknown address” and they would dearly love me to get in touch with them.
They had a bit of trouble with our initials and surname.
Oh well, that cost them sixty cents plus stationery and handling.
[Quite different here –
http://electoral-vote.com/
Assumptions/ projections ??]
I am sitting here waiting patiently for the e-v page to be updated (due any minute). I reckon it will show Obama in the 300s very soon…
Allan Moyes,
Back in the 1980s my parents seriously considered a retirement move from Canberra to Queensland, and there were several parts of Queensland that they found most attractive.
With hindsight, they are glad that they stayed in Canberra – despite the trying winters. My father is almost pathologically anti-social, so it doesn’t matter much where he lives as far as society is concerned, but my mother’s life for the (then) past 40 years was almost entirely based in Canberra. To form a new social network when people are in the 60s or older is a pretty big ask – perhaps that explains why quite a few retirees forsake Queensland (or other northern climes) for their “home” places.
I am not hurling any barbs, veiled or otherwise, at Queensland – simply making the statement that changing one’s social environment in the later years of life is even harder than it is when one is young(er).
dave,
I’m in the genuine nfi column.
Your post and my post just claretfies the uncertainty.
Dave
[Future generations are going to look back at smoking deaths as a sign of how stupid we were, just as we look back at Flat Earth, blood letting for any illness, etc etc
I just want to know why all concerned are not in jail.]
It is truly bizarre. What other industry could kill a third of its customers with zero responsibility for doing so?
Dio:
Is obesity a global health issue? I thought it was mostly a developed world problem.