Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

The first polling conducted since the Prime Minister’s polarising parliamentary speech on sexism and misogyny finds both leaders with their highest “strongly approve” ratings in well over a year. On voting intention however, the Coalition maintains its solid lead.

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.

The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,610 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. TT

    [Slipper leaves the stage and Thomson takes his place. No wonder the average punter believes in his bones that we have a disfunctional government.]

    Nice try.

    70% of the ‘average’ punters can’t stand Mr Abbott.

  2. Toorak Toff,

    [Slipper leaves the stage and Thomson takes his place. No wonder the average punter believes in his bones that we have a disfunctional government. ]

    I’ll give you 6 out of 10 for trying at least. Looks as though nobody reads your comments.

    Probably a good idea at that.

  4. Toorak Toff@147


    Slipper leaves the stage and Thomson takes his place. No wonder the average punter believes in his bones that we have a disfunctional government.

    On that point, it’ll be interesting to see how these play out in the polls. It wasn’t that long ago the Coalition could wheel out a ‘scandal’ and it’d be worth 3 or 4 points to them every time. I suspect the fire has gone out of both the Thomson and Slipper stories for the ‘average punter’. Other things are taking precedence,and almost all of them are issues that get sheeted straight back to the Liberal Party. You can’t have a talk about sexism without Abbott being roped in.

    It’s all policy from here on in. Stunts aren’t going to cut it for much longer.

  5. TT

    Au contraire – quite a lot of “joy” for the progressive side.

    It is the conservatives who are disfunctional, in disarray, dispirted and deflated.

    They thought they would be in power by Christmas – Christmas 2010. Oh, how wrong can you be!

    According to the latest poll – admittedly for what is is worth – Abbott is trailing even further behind in PPM contest (for what ever this means)and did I see his dissatisfied rating is the lowest ever for anybody?

    A real winner – not.

    Get rid of him and perhaps put Turnbull in and your lot might just have a chance.

    If Stephen Fry can see Abbott is “repulsive” from London, then his weaknesses are writ larger closer to home.

    We have seen high-water-mark Liberal some time ago.

    All down hill from here.

    Is that anguish and gnashing of teeth I hear?

    Over two years in opposition, still another year to come with the possibility of yet 3 more years after this.

    Stick with it TT.

  6. Toorak Toff

    Notice how Abbott wants both to vote with, no wonder the coalition will lose by default if Abbott stays as leader

  7. oorak Toff

    Notice how Abbott wants both to vote with the coalition, no wonder the coalition will lose by default if Abbott stays as leader

  8. [That does not mean that Mr Abbott will not raise a motion to kick Mr Thomson out of parliament. There is absolutely nothing in the history of this LOTO that would indicate he would have the slightest hesitation if he thought it would get him closer to power.]

    Yes, strange isn’t it that the ‘she’ll do anything to hold onto power’ argument is never expressed as ‘he’ll do anything to get power’.

  10. He can’t put on a motion to kick another member out of parliament. If that’s the case, the government should put one on to kick his sorry back side out of the joint.

  11. TT , what about your hero Abbott going to court on November 16th or poor old Sophie Mirabella and the light fingered Fisher ?
    Guys , if replying to TT , don’t put HIS dumb comment up again , your just helping him spread HIS comment again?

  12. [Of course, it is possible that’d he’d just crapped his pants worrying about how that afternoon’s events were going to make Abbott look. Hallucinating as well – whatever prescription he’s on, he hasn’t checked the dosage]

    🙂 I reckon by the time October 2013 comes around he’s going to need a mass of sedatives. He’s one hyped up old chook at the moment.

  15. Son of foro@158


    That does not mean that Mr Abbott will not raise a motion to kick Mr Thomson out of parliament. There is absolutely nothing in the history of this LOTO that would indicate he would have the slightest hesitation if he thought it would get him closer to power.


    Yes, strange isn’t it that the ‘she’ll do anything to hold onto power’ argument is never expressed as ‘he’ll do anything to get power’.

    Sexism in the MSM, or is it anti-ALPism? Or both?

  23. poroti

    One of the great survivors, which is more than you could say for most of his direct and indirect victims.

    Good riddance, IMHO.

  27. [Emma Alberici ‏@albericie
    I’ll be joined tonight by female member of the Afghan Parlt Shinkai Karokhail & Opp Workplace Rels spokesman Eric Abetz #Lateline 10:30pm]
    I’ll be sleeping early tonight!

  29. Scorps – before I buzz off to keep OH company I just want to say how lovely it was to read that your little one is progressing well. May the force be with you all. xxx

  30. [BH
    Posted Monday, October 15, 2012 at 6:35 pm | PERMALINK
    Of course, it is possible that’d he’d just crapped his pants worrying about how that afternoon’s events were going to make Abbott look. Hallucinating as well – whatever prescription he’s on, he hasn’t checked the dosage

    I reckon by the time October 2013 comes around he’s going to need a mass of sedatives. He’s one hyped up old chook at the moment.]
    Probably scared about becoming a feather duster?

  32. [The Coalition is demanding that Labor Party funds are not used to pay Mr Thomson’s legal bills.

    “They’ve got to ensure that no support, no extra support, is given to Mr Thomson in relation to this matter,” Senator Abetz said.]

    Unlike Liberal Funds being used to support a Liberal Senator Erica?

  33. Boerwar

    [Good riddance, IMHO.]
    And so say all of us.Although as a guppy swimming in a pond full of piranha I suppose he was in a pretty tough position.

  34. [The Coalition is demanding]

    We hear this so often. We must always be reminded that they are our superiors in everything.
    :sigh:

  36. ruawake@182


    The Coalition is demanding that Labor Party funds are not used to pay Mr Thomson’s legal bills.

    “They’ve got to ensure that no support, no extra support, is given to Mr Thomson in relation to this matter,” Senator Abetz said.


    Unlike Liberal Funds being used to support a Liberal Senator Erica?

    And just what business is that of yours, Erica?

  38. You’d wonder why Leigh Sales would give her gotcha away before 7.30.
    [Leigh Sales ‏@leighsales
    Tonight, AG Roxon confirms she knew of Slipper’s texts in the “period following” May 28 when they were handed to govt solicitors #abc730 ]

  40. Mr Tim Boreham writes about a talk by Mr Tate in today’s ‘The Australian’ about social media, ‘Get to grips with social media, advises embattled Macquarie Radio Chair.’

    I did like ’embattled’.

    Mr Tate appears to think it is a medium …that has become much more than just an avenue for bored teens to share inanities.

    The issue for boards is that social media is relatively new and a relatively young person’s thing, while directorships are for experienced people,’ a/c company adviser Ms Julie Garlan McLellan.

    There is chat about slactivisits.

    But, Mr Boreham asks himself, But can the risk be overstated, in that technology makes it far too easy for the masses to protest? It is simply too easy to make your views known, apparently. Much harder than picketing, for example. Just click.

    It seems to me fairly clear that the old blokes are still coming to grips with a new technology and with the idea that there are singificant numbers of people (customers) who really do think that sexist, racist, violent discourse by shockjocks is unacceptable, and who are willing to change their shopping behaviour to demonstrate same. In short, the Mr Tates of the world no longer control the passes.

    The old media, old blokes, still think it is a all a sort of unethical mass accident surrounding a one-off comment by Mr Jones.

    The just don’t get it.

  45. Roxon should say to sales

    The commonwealth had no action against slipper, it was none her business , it was an internal liberal party infighting

  46. [Leigh Sales ‏@leighsales
    Tonight, AG Roxon confirms she knew of Slipper’s texts in the “period following” May 28 when they were handed to govt solicitors #abc730]

    As she said in Parliament on Thursday, maybe nobody heard due to the screeching coming from the opposition?

  47. Having disturbed the serenity of Bludgerville with a bit of your classic Coalition gutter class crass rudeness, it does look as if GP has returned to his dishpigging.

  49. Boerwar@191


    l
    Ms Roxon has previously acknowledged same. It is old news. Ms Sales is doing desperation. Sad, really.

    The point I was just about to make. “Confirms” indicates we already knew it. Looks like the MSM didn’t do the job of providing ‘context’ well enough last week, so they’re back to have another go at it.

  50. This little black duck
    [Karzai said: “Welcome, Prime Minister” but he was looking over his right shoulder at the cameras.]
    Come on Ducky. After what happened to Ahmad Shah Massoud who can blame him ? The rush for the exit door is on and for Karzai the fate of Najibullah is looking more and more likely.

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