Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

The first polling conducted since the Prime Minister’s polarising parliamentary speech on sexism and misogyny finds both leaders with their highest “strongly approve” ratings in well over a year. On voting intention however, the Coalition maintains its solid lead.

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 36%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week: the Coalition on 47%, the Greens on 9% and the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. With very good timing, it also offers us Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which unlike the voting intention figures are derived entirely from the most recent period of surveying from Wednesday to Sunday. These figures are also of particular interest in the current environment in that they involve a four (strong approval, approval, disapproval, strong disapproval) rather than two point scale. This finds Julia Gillard gaining two points on strong approval since last month to 9%, her best result since February 2011, while also gaining four points on the milder approval measure to 32%. Her combined approval rating of 41% is her highest since May 2011. Her combined disapproval rating is down three points to 51%, also her best since last May, with strong disapproval steady at 27% and the milder disapproval rating down three to 24%. Opinion of Tony Abbott would appear to have polarised even further: he is up three on strong approval to 9% – his best result since December 2010 – but also up two on strong disapproval to a new high of 31%. His overall approval is up five to 37%, and disapproval down one to 54%. Gillard has opened up a seven-point lead as preferred prime minister of 43-36, its highest since February.

The survey also gauges attitudes to the presidential election, finding Barack Obama favoured by 63% to just 9% for Mitt Romney, with Obama leading 53-18 even among Coalition voters. Respondents were found to have an overwhelmingly more favourable view of their own country than the United States with respect to access to health care and jobs, standard of living for ordinary people, and other such. The US obviously rated higher on “international influence”, but even here 17% felt able to conclude Australia’s was “better”. Respondents were also asked about climate change, with much the same result as when the question was last asked a year ago: 48% believe climate change is occurring as a result of human activity, with 39% plumping for “we are witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,610 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [We have two sitting weeks left of both Houses, one additional week in between of the Senate only, and this week of Senate Estimates (for this starved of QT action).]

    Will the Libs try the same stunt with Thomson that they tried with Slipper again?

  2. guytaur

    Understand you. Sorry I seemed to imply it was yours.
    Can’t believe that somehow Bernardi has brought that pic into a video to prove something, but, like you, I’m not going to look. My imagination is good enough to cover all options.

  3. This sounds familiar.

    [the faux objectivity of journalists

    Establishment journalists are creatures of a highly ideological world and often cause ideology to masquerade as neutral fact……
    Nonetheless, Raddatz announced this assertion as fact. That’s because she’s long embedded in the DC culture that equates its own ideological desires with neutral facts. As a result, the entire discussion on entitlement programs proceeded within this narrow, highly ideological, dubious framework. ]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/12/raddatz-debate-objectivity

  4. [Will the Libs try the same stunt with Thomson that they tried with Slipper again?]

    There’s no position for him to resign from. Slipper is still the member for Fisher, so no precedent there.

  5. “@stephenfry: My Aussie friends, the beauty of it is, as a foreigner I don’t have to take sides. We’ve got our imbeciles to moan about. You got drama!”

  6. ABC video of PMJG picks up a lazy 20,000 more views in the last hour to hit 1,610,244. Two non ABC postings of the clip add 280,000 more views.

  7. Chris Kenny ‏@chriskkenny
    Look at me, I’m a woman, look at him, he’s a man, not any man, look again, he’s a misogynist, back at me, I’m relying on Craig Thomson
    Think Chris has really gone around then bend now, which is what I tweeted him, saw it on a retweet

  8. Mr Slipper v Mr Thomson.

    The test for Speaker of the House and backbencher is different.

    Mr Slipper was not targetted on the basis of the legal proceedings in which he was involved, but on the basis of information arising from the proceedings.

    Mr Thomson will plead for, and, IMHO be allowed, his day in court. It is clear that most of the cross-benchers were having no truck with Mr Abbott and his lynch mob.

    That does not mean that Mr Abbott will not raise a motion to kick Mr Thomson out of parliament. There is absolutely nothing in the history of this LOTO that would indicate he would have the slightest hesitation if he thought it would get him closer to power.

  9. “@BBCWorld: Doctors treating #Malala Yousafzai “pleased with her condition” as she is flown to UK for specialist medical care http://t.co/Nfr3XivN

    Most positive line I have heard from Doctors yet on the teen’s condition.

  10. The wonderful Mr Feeney and the wonderful Mr Ciobo are with Wonder Woman. A highlight of today’s’ viewing, ranking just below the test pattern.

  11. Lynchpin@102

    Will the Libs try the same stunt with Thomson that they tried with Slipper again?

    No. Their point with Slipper was that his integrity was compromised such that he could not remain as Speaker. They didn’t try to drive him out of Parliament and they’d have been mad to try.

    They might try to use it to smear the ALP again. But they’re currently in a compromised spot as far as ‘tainted votes’ go, considering they’re happy to accept Slipper’s. It would be almost impossible to make a distinction between Slipper and Thomson in a way that would make sense to the general public.

    As somebody mentioned above, it looks as if Abbott brought on the Slipper vote because he knew Slipper was about to resign as Speaker anyway and he just wanted to get some political mileage out of it.

    If I may say, some of the Coalition strategising is insanely stupid. Tuesday’s stunt had the combined press busy for days mopping up after them. And they had to completely abandon #sensitivetony – with all its careful planning and timing – in order to do that. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

  12. Aguirre

    Well, Abbott has brought the msm and many of his own troops out in defence of #sensitivetony, while he hides in a corner (of Indonesia), so I suppose he thinks it’s jobwelldone.

  13. mari

    [Just noticed Phil Coorey trying desperately to talk the Liberals over the line in Canberra]

    We got slammed by the rates. I mean slammed.

    It was not just a simple switch from stamp duty plus rates to purely rates which seems to be a good policy.

    But there was also a change in which there was an increased progressive element in the rates. So our rate base was increased and then increased again. Our particular rates soared. To rub salt into the wounds, property values in our subsurb reportedly fell by around 10-15% in a year.

    As I told the kindly Labor apparatchik, we felt we could afford the increase in rates and did not particularly mind the increase.

    What we did mind was the insensate spending on ripping up and replacing the bloody footpaths and urban parks all the time. We did mind that they had cut funding for biodiversity management. And we did mind that they were still running the ACT into debt. And we did mind that they had no plan for getting out of the disastrously unsustainable budget trap of relying on around 30-40% of ACT budget income from land sales. What happens when Mr Abbott delivers on getting rid of 12,000 jobs from the ACT and land sales stop? No idea, really.

    The kindly Greens apparatchik informed that all the good bits were due to the Greens and all the bad bits were due to Labor. It’s sooo eeezieee when you fall in lerve. Go figure.

    The kindly Liberal apparatchik did not understand why I had any interest in saving some of our very scarce woodlands from suburban development. And had no idea how Mr Zed was going to pay for the extra public servants the Liberals have promised to employ. This apparatchik was much happier when we got onto the topic of the bloody footpaths again and was most keen to remind of the third wheelie bin policy.

    Do we really get the pollies we deserve?

  14. Two kids re-enact last week’s speech by the PM 😆

    [four-year-old Delilah O’Donoghues earnest lecture on behaviour to her two-year-old brother, Gabriel

    The clip shows Gabriel receiving the dressing down from his sister after he found himself in hot water with their father for spitting at another child in the playground.

    As the lecture continues, Gabriel hangs his head, swings his legs, fidgets with his hands and looks away.

    She tells him: “When Mum and Dad said you don’t do that, you don’t do that… and you don’t spit.”]
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10840660

  15. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, October 15, 2012 at 5:48 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Just noticed Phil Coorey trying desperately to talk the Liberals over the line in Canberra]
    Thanks for that do you still have 99 year lease like it was when I lived there, must be getting close in time now for some land?

  16. Here is a prediction:

    Mr Thomson will be able to resist being shifted until the next election. His side of the legal industry will be able to delay proceedings until then with one hand tied behind their backs. Mr Abbott will remind us all from time to time that Ms Gillard is running a protection racket for Mr Thomson. The pre-selection stuff for his seat may get interesting.

  17. Von Kirsdarke@94


    Stephen Fry called Abbott ‘repulsive’. Fry is a man of good judgement.


    Von Kirs
    I agree, I admire Stephen Fry and am delighted he’s called out Abbott on his disgusting behavior.

    If Australians elect Abbott as PM next year, I think Australia will be in quite low esteem by the world’s intellectuals.

    Von Kiesdarke
    For different reasons PM Abbott could have the international standing of George W Bush.

  18. mari

    Yes the 99 year lease system still obtains. I don’t know what the plan might be as rollover date nears.

    IMHO, it would be a crazy-brave government that does anything other than treat the domestic leaseholds as freehold.

  19. [People such as Chris Kenny appear to be unhinging]

    Kenny definitely losing the plot but more so Graeme Morris. OH and I caught a bit of Agenda and both almost exploded at Morris’ comment. Sorry if it’s been posted before but it needs to be aired and something done about it.

    Talking about last Tuesday and Slipper, Morris said wtte ‘I happened to be walking near the Prime Minister’s Office and the stench coming from there was awful. I asked Tanya Plibersek and Nicola Roxon what the awful smell was and they said ‘hypocrisy’ or that is what they would have said if I had seen them’.

    Morris was right over the top this afternoon. It means either that Labor polling is better than we are seeing or the loopy lot in the Liberal Party have really lost the plot. This bloke will be one of those advising and grabbing coin from the Government if Abbott wins.

  20. [BK
    Posted Monday, October 15, 2012 at 5:52 pm | PERMALINK
    Von Kirsdarke@94

    Stephen Fry called Abbott ‘repulsive’. Fry is a man of good judgement.

    Von Kirs
    I agree, I admire Stephen Fry and am delighted he’s called out Abbott on his disgusting behavior.

    If Australians elect Abbott as PM next year, I think Australia will be in quite low esteem by the world’s intellectuals.

    Von Kiesdarke
    For different reasons PM Abbott could have the international standing of George]

    And has retweeted PM’s speech to his 5 million followers a tweeter told me

  21. The FWA statement of claim cannot even get the respondents name correct. It is a tissue of if he did this then he maybe should of done that even if we are not sure where he was when we assert he did not do what the rule (which by the way was wrongly numbered) says he should have done.

    One statement it uses to claim Thomson spent over 2 grand on tarts has a zero balance – credits wiped out by debits.

    Could drive Clive’s new titanic through the lot, no wonder the solicitor general washed their hands of the mess.

  22. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, October 15, 2012 at 5:52 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Yes the 99 year lease system still obtains. I don’t know what the plan might be as rollover date nears.

    IMHO, it would be a crazy-brave government that does anything other than treat the domestic leaseholds as freehold.]
    Would there be 20 years left on original ?

  23. “@JohnFBruce: Lateline tonight: Shinkai Karokhail, a member of Afghanistan’s national parliament.And Eric Abetz on Craig Thomson. Lateline at 10:35”

    “@guytaur: @JohnFBruce @Lateline Where is the Green and Labor comment on Thomson for balance?”

  24. Boerwar –

    Mr Abbott will remind us all from time to time that Ms Gillard is running a protection racket for Mr Thomson.

    Thanks for reminding me of Tony Abbott’s use of the term “protection racket” in all the idiocy of the Slipper vote saga.

    Tony Abbott obviously doesn’t know (or care) what a “protection racket” is, because it simply doesn’t apply to anything the government did with respect to Peter Slipper.

    From wikipedia:

    A protection racket is an extortion scheme whereby a criminal group or individual coerces a victim (usually a business) to pay money, supposedly for protection services against violence or property damage. Racketeers coerce reticent potential victims into buying “protection” by demonstrating what will happen if they don’t—they damage the victims’ property. In most cases, the racketeers do not actually protect their client from anything but the racketeers themselves, and their “protection” is merely extortion. However, if their victim is seriously threatened by a third party, sometimes gangsters will protect their source of revenue.

    So, the government was threatening whom exactly with what? What were they being paid to avoid the threatened action?

    It’s bullshit, he’s just using a term that isn’t valid because it sounds good and has crime connotations.

    Grow up Tony Abbott. Use our language the way it is meant to be used. Say what you mean and mean what you say.

  25. There never seems to be much joy for Labor. Slipper goes off the boil and Thomson takes his place. The impression of disfunctional government is confirmed in the minds of the punters.

  26. Sorry just checked Stephen fry only has just on 4.9 million followers and there is a lot of retweets on his tweet on the Speech

  27. [People such as Chris Kenny appear to be unhinging]

    We should keep a running total on the number of unhingements going on in the MSM. I have Kenny, Sheehan, Sheridan, Morris, Alan Jones, Gerard Henderson so far. These are the ones who have had obvious meltdowns, as opposed to the usual strangeness. Stutchbury went partway toward it on Insiders, but not far enough.

    It may be a better barometer of how the ALP are doing than the polls at the moment.

  28. Slipper leaves the stage and Thomson takes his place. Sadly, there’s never much joy for Labor. No wonder the average punter thinks we have a disfunctional government.

  29. CTar1

    [This Notice forms part of the document and contains information that might otherwise
    appear elsewhere in the document. The Notice must be included in the document served
    on each party to the proceeding.]

    But they cannot spell Craig.

  30. Slipper leaves the stage and Thomson takes his place. No wonder the average punter believes in his bones that we have a disfunctional government.

  31. BH@130


    Talking about last Tuesday and Slipper, Morris said wtte ‘I happened to be walking near the Prime Minister’s Office and the stench coming from there was awful. I asked Tanya Plibersek and Nicola Roxon what the awful smell was and they said ‘hypocrisy’ or that is what they would have said if I had seen them’.

    Of course, it is possible that’d he’d just crapped his pants worrying about how that afternoon’s events were going to make Abbott look. Hallucinating as well – whatever prescription he’s on, he hasn’t checked the dosage.

  32. Yoorak Toff

    [Slipper leaves the stage and Thomson takes his place. Sadly, there’s never much joy for Labor. No wonder the average punter thinks we have a disfunctional government.]

    seems you and other ignorants,incl media, think the best performing govt,does it with slipper and thomsen,Get Real

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