Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.

Also:

• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.

• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.

UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [QUESTION:
    Do you think it was fair that you were given a full briefing about the job cuts before the people in the firing line had been told?

    TONY ABBOTT:
    I am simply quoting from publicly available figures as to the blowout in the size and the costs of the Queensland public service.

    QUESTION:
    Have you been briefed by the Premier about the job cuts that are happening? Did you get briefed last night?

    TONY ABBOTT:

    I talk to my brother Coalition premiers, my Coalition opposition leaders, I talk to them all the time and look, in the end, they call the shots for their states but I certainly talk to them frequently and I have got to say that the Coalition has been a very effective team right around Australia. ]

    Still spinning out of control.

  3. Aristotle

    [He’s 96 and frail, but the sparkle is still there! ]
    I just watched Pete Seeger appear and perform on the Colbert Report. Aged 93 he was also frail but with the sparkle still there.

  5. Ruawake.. 2023

    Because he cannot recall whether he was briefed..Until maybe the next day.

    QUESTION:
    Have you been briefed by the Premier about the job cuts that are happening? Did you get briefed last night?

    Why can’t he admit he was briefed? Stoopid idiot waffles instead.

  8. Ludlum on Sky News shows why the Greens need to have him as their public face rather than the odious SHY. He is calm, not hysterical, and speaks like an adult.

  10. I just saw a clip of Ukraine’s parliament, on ABC Foreign Correspondent. It makes ours look like a Methodist Ladies College picnic. 😆

  11. CW:

    [This carbon price floor thing. Does it mean there will be no carbon price?]

    No more than the absence of a floor under the price of oranges means that oranges will be free.

    The effective price for emissions permits will be the price for permits in European-Australian (and probably NZ trading scheme) post-2015. It’s probable that this price will exceed the $15 floor price that would otherwise have applied here, unless of course Abbott had won in 2013 and managed not to aboloish the scheme but simply abolished the floor.

    The CER price would have effectively kicked in in 2018 anyway (the price for Clean Development Mechanism instruments) and that was likely to be a lot lower. This way, the price will largely be driven by perceptions of where Europe is going with their cap. They want to press up the price so as to keep renewable development viable. It’s also possible that some US states will join the scheme, and perhaps Korea — since their scheme has a 2015 start date and perhaps a number of districts of China where they are trialling schemes. If all that occurs, the scope for Abbott to push back will be zero.

  12. I just saw a clip of Ukraine’s parliament, on ABC Foreign Correspondent. It makes ours look like a Methodist Ladies College picnic.

    I went to School with a Bloke who’s Dad was the Head Master of MLC (Lucky Bugger)
    Anyways, from some of the stories that he used to tell, those MLC Girls could get pretty rowdy

  16. The PM is giving a speech to a conference somewhere – can’t see from the banners behind her what it’s specifically about. Something to do with superannuation?

  17. BB @ 2045,

    [Don;t get me wrong about George Megalogenis. I think he’s one of the very best. But he does get caught up in the fairy tale of a noble 4th estate.]

    I agree with you. Mr Megalogenis is that rare creature these days, relatively unbiased, relatively dispassionate. That’s certainly how he comes across in such venues as Insiders (though I watch/listen to that only when forced), and in the one book of his that I have read – The Longest Decade.

    But … there is that defensiveness – though whether it’s appropriately called a glass jaw, or blinkered vision – is intriguing, given that the former would suggest awareness, and the latter lack of awareness. I don’t know enough about him to argue one way or the other.

    I would still rather read / watch / listen to him than almost all of the commentariat.

  19. Thank you, Fran.

    But Uhmm, pretend I have no idea. Which I don’t.

    What does it mean for my power costs.

    In case someone asks.

  22. he cannot recall whether he was briefed..Until maybe the next day.

    CW #2055, now there’s an ad on the dangers of binge drinking …

  24. [Paul Howes @howespaul
    Great speech to CPSU conference dinner from @JuliaGillard paid a generous and appropriate tribute to the leadership of @NadineFloodCPSU]

  31. Thanks for those supporting me in my debate with George Megalogenis. I found the position he took oddly unreflective, as if he was shutting his eyes, putting his fingers in his ears and shouting slogans about press freedom as an absolute.

    As a former journalist myself, I recognise his condescending level of engagement with those on Twitter. It is as if he is both above it all and separate from the issues that surround the media. This is part of the problem with the media – their refusal to see their own agency; that their own behaviour is the issue.

    That the outwardly most reasonable member of the News Ltd machine should so thorougly refuse to engage with the arguments for more effective media regulation and public accountability speaks volumes in my view.

  32. Mr Denmore,

    Being a mother, I must confess that my first reaction to Mr Megalogenis’s behaviour is to put him over my knee and adminsiter a short sharp lesson to his nether regions.

    [That the outwardly most reasonable member of the News Ltd machine should so thorougly refuse to engage with the arguments for more effective media regulation and public accountability speaks volumes in my view.]

    So, if I had the opportunity for which I yearn, I’d double the lesson 😉

  33. oops, posted too soon …

    Mr Megalogenis’s failure is in understanding that (1) We the Great Unwashed actually realised that he and his friends ARE players, and (2) We the Great Unwashed are fed up with being played for suckers.

    There’s plenty more that I could write, but that’ll do for now.

  35. Mr Denmore:

    I’ve been at work so haven’t caught your debate with Mega, but your point about him being above it all and somehow separate from the media at large is often described here by Bushfire Bill as journos seeing themselves being part of some ‘other media’.

    Sad to think that Mega can’t cop criticism of his profession. I’d like to see him be more like Tim Dunlop and be able to articulate reasoned criticism where it’s justified.

  37. Fran. As you have not replied.

    I am not being snarky.

    I genuinely would like a lay persons way of answering it. I believe I understand in brief that dirty stuff has to be price pointed out. So clean stuff gets a viable run. So pollution is reduced. I have never thought that this business, as it is, of trading emissions is anything but a money making scheme. Doing nothing for reductions.

    And I understand, I think, the differences between the (major) parties on who would foot the costs.

    My question is, as I asked it.

    Does it boil down to a recognition that emissions must be reduced, for the good of the planet.

    Then I will undoubtedly hear the clamor of those who will not accept the validity of climate change.

  40. Mr Denmore

    [I found the position he took oddly unreflective, as if he was shutting his eyes, putting his fingers in his ears and shouting slogans about press freedom as an absolute.]

    Add laying in the foetal position to that and that is how they watched Leveson and learned of the antics of their boss.

    One would think that if he and most of them had watched Leveson he would understand why lots of us have an extreme distaste for what they dish us up as News.

  41. Mr Denmore

    [Thanks for those supporting me in my debate with George Megalogenis.]
    Well done on your stand. Although I must confess to being,as they say, conflicted because I do like Mega George. That said you are on the side of the angels. It is like JTI , I think his heart is in the right place but when push comes to shove the Golden Rule applies. He who pays the gold makes the rules. Denmore Rules, OK.

  43. GG,

    At times, with the almost certain exclusion of you and moi, most people are boring gits. No need to attach an additional adjective 😉

  45. [ratsak

    Posted Tuesday, August 28, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know why anyone would be surprised by Megalogenis’ attitude to media scrutiny. Yes he can be more sensible than most of his peers most of the time, but he is (as they all are) fully indoctrinated in the ‘media as bulwark against tyranny’ delusion. They actually truly buy into that shit as they act as the PR vehicle of their billionaire employer, his political views and those of assorted powerful vested interests.

    They imagine themselves as Bernsteins and Woodwards as they rehash press releases and regurgitate talking points. And woe betide anyone offering any critique of their work. It’s just not allowed. The media are the chosen ones. They do the holding to account, not the other way around. Ever.

    Try and point out even in the nicest possible terms that someone in the media might have got something wrong, or perhaps they need a little bit of oversight themselves and stand back and watch all the toys get thrown out of the cot. It just does not compute with them. Glass jaws all round, yes even Mega.
    ]

    Brilliant post.

    Journalists have always been amatuers that think they are a profession.

    More importantly they think they are a profession that needs zero professional oversight.

    They suffer from many of the same foibles as economists of which I am a proudly recalcitrant member.

  47. Greensborough Growler
    [At times, Megaloginis is a Greek boring git.]
    Don’t dis the George . He is as advertised
    [George Megalogenis is our resident nit-picker. ]

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