Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.

Also:

• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.

• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.

UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. GG,

    [I see you come bearing gifts.]

    Given my own enjoyment of a touch of the grape after hours, I’m loathe to attribute anything to anyone … but what the heck are you imbibing this evening, GG? I didn’t think that I was coming and/or bearing anything at all at all…

  3. Oh sorry, Fiona.

    Just being frivolous.

    The Slap is an Australian program, wherein a man slaps someone else’s child.

    Wiki ..

    The Slap is an Australian television drama series. It was first broadcast on ABC1 from 6 October to 24 November 2011. The series is based on The Slap, a 2008 multi-award winning novel by Australian author Christos Tsiolkas, which explores what happens when a man slaps a child, who is not related to him, at a suburban barbecue.

    It created some contention, over both that and the general attitude towards hitting kids.

    Slapping George’s bottom hardly compares.

  5. CW,

    What was really worrying me was your possible equation of me with one of the characters of The Slap – which I preferred in its TV form!

    As for my dealings with MegaGeorge – well, what goes on betwee consenting adults …

  6. Peter Reith said that mistakes happen. But he was told all the time that sending Afghans back wold result in deaths. This was not a mistake, he was warned.

  14. adam abdool

    [Peter Reith said that mistakes happen.]
    I heard a clip last Saturday on RN ‘s Saturday Extra. Reith’s attitude was just like Tone’s……….. “Shit Happens.”

  15. GG,

    [George as the thinking girls crumpet means you buy the Oz for the pictures and not the articles?]

    To be honest, I can’t remember the last time that I put down legal dosh for the OO.

    On the rare occasions that I wish to ogle George, I do it for free on Their (so far free) ABC – but the last time would have to be at least 12 months ago.

    I lead a sheltered, some would say boring, life.

  16. I once assisted a friend make a documentary about a religious cult. We spent a week living with these very strange but ordinary people. Years later, when I still read the OO, I would ring the news desk to complain about some crap they had published and they would put me through to the journo in question. The reaction from these journalists and the reaction from the religious cult was very similar.

    The OO and its journalists are just like a cult. George Mega knows what happens to non-believers.

  17. Jeffemu, that is a great site. Well done.

    Aristotle, thanks for linking the Hocking/Whitlam video. Brought a tear to my eye.

  18. As BK seems not to be about. Psst.

    I despise Sinodinos. He is the par excellence in grubby machinations.

    I am well reminded as we watch Go Back To etc.

    George is a naïf.

  20. Crikey Whitey,

    IMHO roll on gay marriage: I think that Arthur Sinodinos and Graham Morris would make the ideal couple – like to like.

  24. crikey whitey

    [As BK seems not to be about. Psst.

    I despise Sinodinos. He is the par excellence in grubby machinations.]
    Pssst, Howard,Sinodinos and Howard are identical triplets.

  25. fess

    [the coalition no longer talk about nannies like they used to.]

    Sophie’s children are older now, so they’re not necessary any more.

  31. And BK is about to go to bed. Another early rise and a very full day ahead. I have just got back from presenting my Treasurer’s report to the AGM of the local community park committee.

  32. And BK is about to go to bed. Another early rise and a very full day ahead. I have just got back from presenting my Treasurer’s report to the AGM of the local community park committee.

  37. Preprandial right next door to prepuce in the dictionary.

    Enjoyed the discussion on unions.

    Been a member for fourty years ,don’t tell anyone.

  38. CW:

    [What does it mean for my power costs. ]

    Impossible to say. Plainly, if the effective price falls to $15 — we don’t know that it will — then assuming this is passed on, your power costs should fall relative to where they would have been if the price had been at inflation plus 5%. Of course, I don’t know if you are being compensated for price rises so in net terms it’s hard to say. If the pool of funds available for compensation declines, then plainly some people could be worse off in net terms.

    Really though, we probably need an effective price in 2012 dollars of about $50tCO2e if we are going to have prices drive decarbonisation. At $23 there’s obvious a lot of need for other measures — the REC system; some other regulatory intervention on pollution; perhaps a tightening of fossil fuel subsidies. I’d favour a phase out of deductibility of energy costs from tax. If you bought either permits or RECs or got credit for buying green energy, or your supplier was less CO2 intensive than the energy supply system as a whole, these could be deductible to that extent. We absolutely need to make motor vehicle drivers pay for pollution one way or another.

  41. Just read through the whole Denmore-Mega twitter stoush. The most interesting thing about it isn’t Mega cutting and running, it’s his initial proposition that the Coalition bashing the ABC (I assume he’s also talking about threats to cut funding with that) is the same as ALP proposals that the media be regulated.

    For a start, he equates regulation with censorship. That’s such a paranoid attitude I don’t know what to make of it. He doesn’t appear to be saying that regulation is ok under certain circumstances; he’s saying it’s a bad thing. The other big mistake he makes is not to recognise the Coalition attitude for what it is – an attack on one segment of the industry, the ABC. It’s targeted, whereas regulation will apply to everyone applicable. It might curtail the activities of News Ltd more than others, but that’s just because News Ltd abuse their freedom more than others do.

    I can recall when restrictions on TV advertising were lifted, and we had all these pious assurances that the industry would have effective self-regulation. The first thing that happened was the number of ads shot up. Self-regulation almost always results in abuse of trust. The print media is no different from anyone else in that regard. I fully understand why they would want things the way they are. But so what? I wouldn’t pay any attention to the fox’s reasons for being allowed to run the henhouse either.

    The other issue Mega makes a hash of is his preference for the public rather than the government deciding whether the media is balanced. Does he not read surveys? Journalists don’t have any trust from the public. And how on earth does he suggest the public regulate the media anyway? With the concentration of media holdings the way it is, it’s not as if the public have a lot of choice in the matter. The public can’t make newspapers tell the truth. It’s one of the things they expect their elected representatives to take care of. Mega’s is a spurious argument.

  42. for dog owners

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2194669/Was-trying-to-Barking-Jack-Russell-escapes-family-home-Kent-climb-aboard-London-bound-train.html

    [Was he trying to get to Barking? Jack Russell escapes family home in Kent to climb aboard a London bound train
    By Anna Edwards
    PUBLISHED: 10:47 GMT, 28 August 2012 | UPDATED: 12:02 GMT, 28 August 2012

    Most commuters loathe the busy morning rush hour as they shuffle on board their train to work.

    But Frankie the Jack Russell Frankie was so keen to get to London he darted through the legs of passengers before hoping onto a carriage at Gravesend Station, Kent.

    The adventurous six-year-old pooch sneaked out of his front door as his owners left for work and walked 1.6 miles to the train station.

    Scroll down for video]

  43. Aguirre

    (not really pertinent, just reminded me..)

    I had a conversation on a blog once which went something like this:

    Lib: Julia has directly threatened NewsLtd, by saying journalists shouldn’t print crap

    Me: That wasn’t a threat to NewsLtd, it was a general comment.

    Lib: Well, who else would she have been talking about?

  45. zoomster:

    It is interesting though that the opps have gone from championing nannies to a vacant space.

    Are nannies no longer core policy? 😀

  46. Aquirre@2141

    [The other issue Mega makes a hash of is his preference for the public rather than the government deciding whether the media is balanced. Does he not read surveys? Journalists don’t have any trust from the public. And how on earth does he suggest the public regulate the media anyway? With the concentration of media holdings the way it is, it’s not as if the public have a lot of choice in the matter. The public can’t make newspapers tell the truth. It’s one of the things they expect their elected representatives to take care of. Mega’s is a spurious argument.]

    What George is failing to recognise is that the public are voicing their opinion on the media and its activities, firstly through their complaints to the various bodies and secondly through the only real means available to them. Has he looked at the sales of the newspapers and magazines, the fall in sales is what they need to look at, there is the real critique of the media and the failure in the current self regulation.

  48. fess

    I’m partly serious. I know people whose ‘issue du jour’ is driven solely by what’s happening in their personal lives. They’re always agitating for something with all their heart and soul, but when you dig, it’s always totally personal.

    So it wouldn’t surprise me that when the Mirabella household was looking at spending serious money on nannies, that that policy was also being driven hard in the party room.

  49. when the Mirabella household was looking at spending serious money on nannies

    zoomster # 2148 – as opposed to their 50 sheds of grey period when serious money was spent on nappies?

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