Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.

Also:

• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.

• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.

UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. And they say a week is a long time in politics…

    There is a long way to go, a very long way, but the shift in the press gallery, and now in voter land, is as clear as I can remember. A discernible shift.

  4. Yep the gradual improvement continues, day by day, week by week. Every percentage point is hard fought and earned with blood sweat and tears. Good on the true believers for hanging in there.

  5. so the trend is against Libs, and it is constant.
    Its time the Libs started to woryy, and the P M started doing more of the same.
    That is more of those long meet the press and stare them down, and ignore abbott, as Steve Bracks recommends

  6. looks like my timing was out a little but i won’t bother repeating my post from the other thread

    good result, just need Essential to follow suit now as well – there’s movement at the station 🙂

  10. [Mark Colvin @Colvinius 5m
    @samanthamaiden @tudorgrrrl @GhostWhoVotes It was a genuine question. I’d love to hear from anyone who’s seen a 20 point fall in 3mths.]
    View conversation ·

    [GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes]

    [@Colvinius @samanthamaiden After ‘utegate’ Turnbull went Approve -19 Disapprove +21 in #Newspoll. #auspol
    10:01pm Sun Aug 26]

  13. What is really good about the narrowing (yes, I know it doesn’t predict the outcome of the 2013 election) is that that the media sound bites will need to change. They won’t be able to use the heir apparent line anymore.

  16. @GhostWhoVotes: @Colvinius @samanthamaiden After ‘utegate’ Turnbull went Approve -19 Disapprove +21 in #Newspoll. #auspol

  17. Space Kidette – naive to think that leadershit talk is gone for Gillard. There will be a time when it returns. Labor just need to be unified and have positive policy to discuss.

  18. guytaur

    You posted this on the other thread

    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 38m
    Something I’ve been wondering for weeks, is Federal Labor’s best hope – Campbell Newman?]

    Really Latika. You have been wondering?

  22. gloryconsequence,

    I’m not talking about leadershit. I am talking about the endless repetitive message media send to voters – that Abbott will be King.

    The uncertainty means that they will not be able to say it. Which is step 1 in any meaningful turnaround.

  27. Seems as though Bourke is trying to deflect the blame from Abbott to Newman – she’d be on the money if she came to the conclusion that the lib drop is due to a bit of both.

  29. Ducky

    Latika’s job is to repeat the political news. She has only come to the realisation that cando could be Labor’s asset because she has had polls shoved in front of her. Slow learner indeed!

  35. Sorry hit post early. This goes with 34

    @mikjeffo: @DoctorKarl @coatesy204 @cambuntu @pschofie You can have your own opinions, but you can’t have your own facts…

  37. victoria,

    LatikaM is on the ABC as a “political reporter” and has hosted Capital Hill.

    Por eso, she has zero leeway.

  38. Before i go

    [Mark Colvin @Colvinius 15m
    @GhostWhoVotes @samanthamaiden Thanks for that. Right in thinking there’s never been such a post-election drop for a new Premier or PM?]
    View details ·

    [GhostWhoVotes
    @GhostWhoVotes]

    [@Colvinius @samanthamaiden I’ve never seen anything like this for a new Premier/PM.
    1:16pm Sun Aug 26]

  43. The shift in the polls has been coming for a while. One sensed it was on as far back as early July, when the Libs were just a bit too cute with their blocking of the Malaysian solution.

    From talking to the swinging voters I know, I got the sense of a growing impatience with the transparent phoniness of the Coalition tactics: the sloganeering, the relentless negativity, the smearing of Thomson, Slipper and Gillard, the policy position of convenience on boat people. They still don’t much like Gillard, but they like being plated for fools even less.

    Realistically, the Libs are going to need to change tack. Start talking policy, god forbid. If they haven’t got any to hand, they can trty to fake it!!

  50. meher

    I think Abbott was trying to switch to policy with his Ten Point Plan he outlined at the Tas Lib Confest.

    Did not pass PB test.

    I will be interested in what davidwh, rummel and ML have to say about that performance.

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