Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.

Also:

• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.

• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.

UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 thoughts on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. #Nielsen Poll Gillard: Approve 39 (+2) Disapprove 57 (-1) #auspol

    Herel: Approve 100 (+63) Disapprove 0 (-42) #housepol

  4. The demographics of this poll are interesting. Small samples but the only age groups the Coalition are above 40% Primary Vote are: 40-54 year olds (44) and 55 year olds and over (53)

    Small samples, but still

    Also, the Coalition on the primary vote with women is 42 whereas with men it’s 48.

    Definitely a trend back to the ALP across the polls. Let’s see how things go over the coming months and whether complacency starts to spread through the Coalition

  6. This confirms the Newspoll trend!
    Undoubtably, it’ll firm up Gillard’s leadership, giving her breathing space until the end of the year
    Abbott on the other hand has got some problems, one of which is himself and his propensity to make a dick of himself during a serious interview on TV.

  8. Let’s see how things go over the coming months and whether complacency starts to spread through the Coalition

    Why with the recent polls would the LNP be complacent? The exact opposite is more likely?

  10. In this Internet age it is appalling the lack of updates to media sites.
    The speed at which William sets up a new thread is testament to this.
    William does not have the resources of a multimillion business and well paid workers behind him. Yet he does better in a faster tim than they do.

  12. Interesting concept though, are outliers more common these days?

    If that were true then the pollsters would be packing the brown stuff.

  16. Good result for Labor in the Heffron byelection this weekend might be a sign of a backlash against BOF in NSW, and that helps Federal Labor too.

  17. I like the slow climb back, it is not enough to frighten the noalition into a drastic change to another leader, just enough for them to think they have the right tactics and all will come good because they are still in a winning position.

    Abbott and cando are helping the cause of the ALP, let the rise in the polls be gentle, long lasting and not just noise and 2013 while being difficult is definitely not out of reach.

    Hopefully the day after the election, the lnp will wake up to find that they waited a couple of years too long to change leader and they will have to wait another three years to have another chance of getting their butts on the other seats.

  20. Slow and steady, no big bounces, I want a definite change in voting intention, not just a short-term emotional reactions.

  25. Got to like Hartcher’s ongoing negativity (it’d be an amazing poll to him if Rudd were PM ;)):

    In other words, as Stirton puts it, ”the result for Labor has gone from being catastrophic to standard, garden-variety landslide”. An election today would see Labor suffer a defeat of about the same magnitude as the Keating government suffered at the hands of John Howard in 1996.

    Now, as then, the mood is simply that Labor’s time is up. The Gillard government has done nothing to change that mood.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hope-for-labor-now-only-a-landslide-not-a-catastrophe-20120826-24uke.html#ixzz24fAREdmX

  27. Got to like Hartcher’s ongoing negativity (it’d be an amazing poll to him if Rudd were PM ):

    Why does that count as negativity?

    It is a pure FACT that this is still a terrible poll for Labor.

  28. Mr Howard argued that the “one bad political mistake” of Work Choices was the removal of the no disadvantage test – which prevented workers from being worse off under individual contracts

    But John, if you didn’t remove the no disadvantage test, you’d be left with pretty much Keating’s enterprise bargaining reforms which undermines what you wanted to do in the first place: cut people’s wages and conditions on the bottom rung of the ladder!

  29. 77

    It is moving in the ALP`s direction and is small enough, with enough time, for the gap to be closed before the election.

  30. Why does that count as negativity?

    Because he fails to mention the trend in a serious way.

    What will he say if the next poll records a further 1 or 2% improvement to Labor’s 2PP? He is playing a negative game that could (not necessarily will) see him with an runny omelet slapped across his face.

  31. What will he say if the next poll records a further 1 or 2% improvement to Labor’s 2PP? He is playing a negative game that could (not necessarily will) see him with an runny omelet slapped across his face.

    Was the previous Nielsen 58/42?

    If so, I think that one was an outlier. I don’t think Labor was doing that badly.

  32. What?????

    “Meanwhile, as Gillard bedded in the carbon tax and found a pragmatic solution to the political problem of asylum seekers, it appeared she might finally have been regaining support within her party and the electorate.

    But new details about her time as a solicitor with the law firm Slater & Gordon, specifically about her conduct relating to a then client, pose a new threat to her authority and reputation.

    This story has a very long tail. Many allegations have been made in many forums since the mid-1990s. Despite all the malicious and often false allegations that were magnified with the advent of the internet, no wrongdoing has been proven. But there are now legitimate questions that will, at best, distract her.

    And there is a more cataclysmic scenario, of which her Labor detractors are mindful.
    It’s little wonder the opposition has scarcely gone near it. It doesn’t need to.”
    Twitter: @PPDaley

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-like-abbott-in-the-headlights-20120825-24t28.html#ixzz24fEdOOul

  34. Was the previous Nielsen 58/42?

    A serious commentator wouldn’t single out just one polling organisation’s results – he should also mention Newspoll but that wouldn’t fit in with his negative slant. If his excuse is that he’s Fairfax and therefore won’t draw attention to Newspoll then he is a hack and should be regarded as such.

  36. WOW.

    Some great results for the ALP. My seat prediction for this latest Neilsen is down to about 89 LNP to 60 ALP and 1 Other (I am guessing Oaky and Windsor are getting flicked for this).

  38. ABC 24 bimbo on Trevor Chappel’s radio show just said a new Newspoll is out today, Nielsen must b tearing their hair out.

  40. spur212

    Mr Howard argued that the “one bad political mistake” of Work Choices

    Just what I’d expect of Howard – that he got the ar#e is, for him, the only consequence of his misguided policy.

    It’s all about ‘John’.

    F%c&wit.

  43. International political news (Direct Inaction?)

    Women in the civil rights group Let’s Save Togo say they will have a week-long sex strike to demand the resignation of President Faure Gnassingb.

    The plan to withhold sex from their husbands for a week will start on Monday, said Isabelle Ameganvi, leader of the group’s women’s wing.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/togo-women-in-sex-strike-against-president-20120827-24uzi.html#ixzz24ggRwhpP

    Only husbands though.

  46. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    Went to bed early & missed out all the fun. Latest Nielsen is another stake into the heart of #Ruddstoration fanboys. It’s time they STFU

  47. A good poll after some strong leadership from gillard.

    I’m angry at the child that is the leader of the libs yet still can’t vote for labor so I’m a donkey voter at point in time.

  48. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And a special good morning to Little Big Man. Don;t forget to to take your pooper scooper to work with you today!
    The Neilsen poll continues the recent trend and will strain the Unhinged One’s relationship with his dominatrix. Several articles on the poll this morning.
    Coorey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/poll-gives-labor-glimmer-of-hope-20120826-24ul0.html
    Shiny Shoes Hatcher.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hope-for-labor-now-only-a-landslide-not-a-catastrophe-20120826-24uke.html
    Michael Gordon
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-breaks-old-rule-for-a-slow-climb-20120826-24ulj.html
    Cathy Wilcox has got things worked out.

    Ron Tandberg continues getting stuck into Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

    And just as Little Big Man is giving gifts so is The Rodent.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/revive_ir_reform_howard_N8f3wRatkWELbJkEBGK9rM

  49. BI Sharpnel latest report says The BISONs still be running wild & free in the next 3 years fed by Mining & other sectors will step in & keep it up in the future

  50. Posted Monday, August 27, 2012 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Went to bed early & missed out all the fun. Latest Nielsen is another stake int

    Finns 🙂 ,

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