Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.

Also:

• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.

• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.

UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 44 of 44
1 … 43 44

  1. zoomster:

    I see no cohesion between the llived experience of any Australian woman and the policy platform of today’s Liberal party. Even the Member for Indi.

    I just wonder whether Liberal party focus group findings are showing an ambivalence towards Abbott’s continued references to nannies because nannies symbolise the privileged rather than the norm.

  3. Head down, the lass was sudden distracted by a scratching.

    Astonished, her dog, it was. All covered in muck, her beautiful hair deranged and plastered.

    Never had she brought the animal to her place of work.

    Yet, somehow, that dear, silly fool had left home.

    And through the mangroves, found her way to the very window where her mistress worked.

    Port Augusta memories.

  6. The Australian newspaper are going with “carbon backdown” tomorrow … For those who think The Australian newspaper shapes public opinion (I don’t)

  10. But wait, there is more!

    The local magistrate hurled in a rage to condemn my dog. Apparently a delinquent.

    She again had escaped and in need of a companion, enticed his dog, he claimed, they were friends, let it be clear, albeit that they lived some distance apart.

    And both red setters. So their interests were shared.

    Last sighted swimming together across the Gulf. On a lovely summer’s day.

    Where. He stood enraged and helpless. And I, helpless with laughing amazement.

    We did retrieve them.

  16. [The Australian newspaper are going with “carbon backdown” tomorrow … For those who think The Australian newspaper shapes public opinion (I don’t)]

    I’m not sure it shapes it is much more subtle and complex than that, but it is a positive reinforcement feedback loop for idiots and really lazy people who believe newspapers still, when they say what that all ready believe.

  18. @MartinGHodgson: So when 100% of International law experts & lawyers say it is NOT ILLEGAL TO SEEK ASYLUM IN OZ, can you just accept it & move on! #GoBackSBS

  22. [@MartinGHodgson: So when 100% of International law experts & lawyers say it is NOT ILLEGAL TO SEEK ASYLUM IN OZ, can you just accept it & move on! #GoBackSBS]

    Evidently 100% of “international law experts” haven’t read the Migration Act, which doesn’t surprise me. There is no such thing as seeking asylum in Australian law. A person who has entered Australia unlawfully can claim refugee status, but if they are denied refugee status, their unlawful presence in Australia is confirmed and they can be deported. That’s the law.

  23. It says at the top of the page PB is an electoral studies blog… to me this implies its conception was part of your higher studies… I was wondering therefore what conclusions were drawn? Perhaps I’ve had too many reds?

  24. [The Australian newspaper are going with “carbon backdown” tomorrow … For those who think The Australian newspaper shapes public opinion (I don’t)]

    The 6pm bulletin on 7 tonight were claiming it as ‘another Gillard government backflip’, somehow.

  27. [The 6pm bulletin on 7 tonight were claiming it as ‘another Gillard government backflip’, somehow.]

    I think this should be a lesson to those who think you can just magically undo a perceived mistake from the past and everything will be fine…

  28. Bitter Attack on Obama by Republican-zionist HoReps member
    over new report
    __________________________________
    An new report for the White House by US experts on the M.E. says that the US-Israel link is a problem for the US in it’s relationships with the Arab and islamic world …and serves no positive purpose for the USA
    It looks at the M East and plans for a post-Israel M/East
    It has alarmed the zionist lobby
    Some repubs see the report as an aid to win over the Jewish vote for Romney

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/08/27/258478/us-planning-for-a-postisrael-middle-east/

  29. Classic inane commentary from Hartcher. He’s castigating Australians for not knowing enough about US politics. He cites a study of win expectations by Aussies (65 per cent name Obama and only 9 per cent Romney).

    He then opines about the national polls, which are largely irrelevant.

    [That’s a difference of just 1.4 percentage points, which is within the margin of polling error. For statistical purposes, it’s a dead heat.

    The inability of Australians to distinguish their reality from America’s is leading to delusional thinking. Why?]

    It’s not a dead heat you moron. The US votes in electoral colleges d!ckhead and Obama has a win expectation of 70% and Romney 30%.

  30. [Evidently 100% of “international law experts” haven’t read the Migration Act, which doesn’t surprise me. There is no such thing as seeking asylum in Australian law. A person who has entered Australia unlawfully can claim refugee status, but if they are denied refugee status, their unlawful presence in Australia is confirmed and they can be deported. That’s the law.]

    It is a pointless distinction confusing and conflating two quite separate bodies of law. You are smarter than that Adam.

  31. [Psephos
    Posted Tuesday, August 28, 2012 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    ..
    More spliting of camel hairs]

    It all doens’t matter any more Psephos, if the boats don’t stop it is still an issue, if they do, it isn’t. The rest is just shit in the sewer.

  32. guytaur

    [@tom_watson: RT @theJeremyVine: BEST SIGN outside a London tube station in recent history: http://t.co/0KL2TZ3u (via @ronniejoice)]

    😆

    (the possible cause is that they’re cleaning out some mainly disused tunnels in the immediate area just now (@ Barbican Station just to the east) in preparation for the opening of even more tunnels for ‘Cross Rail’)

  33. [bluegreen
    Posted Tuesday, August 28, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    Why is it that Conservatives don’t put a value on art.

    Ummm. Kennett rebuilt Victoria’s Museum and Gallery.]

    And Hamer hall is called Hamer Hall for a reason

Comments Page 44 of 44
1 … 43 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *