Galaxy: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland

Bloody hell. GhostWhoVotes tweets that the Galaxy poll conducted last week has also come good with state figures to add to the federal ones published on Saturday, and they find that Campbell Newman has suffered an astounding 50% plunge in his net approval rating since the last such poll in May: approval down 20 points to 44%, and disapproval up 30 to 49%. However, he can console himself with voting intention figures that most leaders would yearn for: 48% for the LNP on the primary vote, 30% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 7% for Katter’s Australian Party, with a 60-40 lead to the LNP on two-party preferred. These figures nonetheless represent a shift in Labor’s favour of similar dimensions to the federal poll, with the primary vote showing Labor up 7%, the LNP down 6%, the Greens down 1% and Katter’s Australian Party steady, and two-party preferred narrowing from 67-33. Figures for Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk are presumably forthcoming – as should be a federal Nielsen poll laster this evening.

UPDATE: Looks the Courier-Mail aren’t interested in Palaszczuk. A graphic accompanying their story shows only results for Newman. It also tells us 49% have found the Newman government’s performance worse then expected,, 7% have found it better, and 39% believe it has lived up to expectations (whether those expectations were high or low is not specified).

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy does in fact have personal ratings for Annastacia Palasczcuk: 36% approval (down two) and 28% disapproval (up 10).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

17 comments on “Galaxy: 60-40 to LNP in Queensland”


    [ Galaxy Poll finds government cuts to public service taking toll on Campbell Newman’s popularity
    by: Steven Wardill
    From: The Courier-Mail
    August 27, 2012 12:00AM

    CAMPBELL Newman has had a hole punched in his rampant popularity.

    A Galaxy Poll, conducted exclusively for The Courier-Mail, has revealed the Government’s cuts to programs and the public service have taken a massive toll on the Queensland Premier.

    It found one in three Queenslanders had switched from being pleased or impartial with Mr Newman’s efforts to dissatisfied.]


    [Together union accuses Campbell Newman of trickery in $500,000 advertising blitz
    by: Koren Helbig From: The Courier-Mail August 27, 2012 12:00AM

    UNIONS have accused Campbell Newman of trickery in a $500,000 advertising blitz aimed at forcing the Government to wind back on thousands more job cuts likely to be unveiled at next month’s Budget. ]

    [Federal Labor uses Campbell Newman’s job cuts to raise fear of Tony Abbott-led government
    by: Anna Caldwell From: The Courier-Mail August 27, 2012 12:00AM

    FEDERAL Labor has seized on Campbell Newman’s job cuts to generate fear about an Abbott-led government as it tries to win back Queensland in the lead-up to the next federal election. ]

    [COMMENT: Clueless Newman should look south
    by: Steven Wardill From: The Courier-Mail August 27, 2012 12:00AM

    CAMPBELL Newman is fast proving he is no Peter Beattie. ]

  3. With the State figure for Labor recovering so much, though still being worse in Qld than the federal poll result, it seems the last State election really was Labor’s nadire in Qld. I find it hard not to conclude that, apart from the long term problems, the last campaign was tactically poor. Labor convinced the voters that it had given up the fight, and the voters responded accordingly. Meanwhile Newman’s faults were not exposed, just a distracting smear on his wife’s business links.

    Now we see that, like Howard with a Senate majority, Newman unchecked is just as capable of cronyism, class warfare and bad economics as his background suggested. If it continues, and his opponent is competent, the Labor State and Federal votes could rapidly recover in Qld. Some posters in the past have suggested that Qld is naturally conservative. I disagree. It is naturally pragmatic. It is a place with little time for ideology, and disdain for aloof governments that ignore the basics.

  4. There will be further pain ahead for Newman when the Airport Link Tunnel financial deal meets its inevitable demise. It was part of the TransApex proposal he championed as mayor. It has been built well but the traffic, and hence financial forecasts, are unachievable.

    This will raise questions about Newman’s judgement (was it really the best option for Brisbane?; Perth built the rail line to Mandurah for half the price) and his financial management. Did any of the invested money come from public sources?

    To the untrained observer, it might look as though Newman has spent a lot of money paying the private sector exorbitant amounts to build grandiose PPP roads, and then cutting the public sector when the money is gone.

    John Howard managed to create a mini-recession in Canberra in the late 90s when he over-cut the public service upon taking office. I wonder if Newman has managed the same in Qld? No doutb, as a financially responsible Liberal, he will balance the next State budget.

  5. Oops, yes, it’s 89 seats, not 87. That means that Labor will need a 7.1% swing to win 25 seats, the same % of seats that Labor won in 1977. They would still be 20 short of a majority.

  6. 14

    Some of the seats between the number of ALP seats and the LNP almost certain majority will be KAP seats. I think that KAP will in regional areas that are not strong for the ALP.

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