Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes tweets Nielsen has the Coalition leading 54-46, down from 56-44 last month. The primary votes are 32% for Labor (up two), 45% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (down one). On both measures, this is Nielsen’s best result for Labor and its worst for the Coalition since the curious spike at the time of the February leadership challenge. Julia Gillard likewise has her first lead as preferred prime minister from Nielsen since February, being up three to 46% while Tony Abbott is down three to 45%. Both leaders are on 39% approval and 57% disapproval, which puts Gillard up two on approval and down one on disapproval, while Abbott is respectively steady and up one. Nielsen, for some reason, produces lower uncommitted results on this question than other pollsters.

GhostWhoVotes also offers full tables, which show the Coalition leading 55-45 in New South Wales (56-44 last month), at 50-50 in Victoria (51-49 in their favour last month), and leading 59-41 in Queensland (63-37), 53-47 in South Australia/Northern Territory (51-49) and 54-46 in Western Australia (65-35), remembering that small samples render the smaller state results especially of little meaning.

Also:

• Support for the carbon tax is steady since last month at 36%, and opposition steady at 59%. Only 3% of respondents (down two) believe the carbon tax and its attendant compensation have made them better off, 40% (up two) say they are worse off, and 54% (up two) say it has made no difference.

• Processing asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus Island is supported by 67% and opposed by 27%. Opinion on increasing the refugee intake is perfectly divided, with support at 48% and opposition at 49%.

UPDATE: Essential Research is not on board the swing-back-to-Labor train: primary votes are steady at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has nudged the two-party preferred back a point to Labor at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,185 thoughts on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Tom Hawkins
    Posted Tuesday, August 28, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    MB

    The drum is really in the gutter

    What’s going on? Not more S & G?

    turn if off as soon as i heard the news ltd hack , delusional abbott will be pm for 3 terms

    if Joe Hildrebrand is the best news ltd can offer

    BYE bYE THE COALITION CHANCES

  2. I would love to kill the AMA and the Pharmacists Guild. Bloody cartels keeping prices high!!!

    Most doctors aren’t in the AMA and the AMA has nothing whatsoever to do with what fees you charge.

    The AMA is irrelevant to most doctors.

  3. bg

    Who goes feral when it is proposed that nurses take on more duties from doctors in hospitals?

    SASMOA in SA would comment on hospital stuff. We are increasingly giving more duties to nurses at the RAH.

  4. Jeffemu

    When the Sharks development channels some of it’s revenue towards putting my Magpies back where they belong I’ll be happy for you. Until then there is just another debt that is never going to be repaid.

    You can’t bring back the biff with out the black and whites. 😉

  5. The AMA is irrelevant to most doctors.

    They seem to be a sub-branch of the Liberal Party. Kerryn Phelps snuck in somehow, must have been a Nelson thing.

  6. Diogenes

    Most doctors aren’t in the AMA and the AMA has nothing whatsoever to do with what fees you charge.

    The AMA is irrelevant to most doctors.

    Thanks for the info. I did not realise that. You certainly would not know that from the prominence the meeja give them.

  7. Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has backed greater flexibility for small businesses after former Liberal prime minister John Howard called for a return to individual workplace contracts.

    During a talkback appearance on Fairfax Radio 4BC today, Mr Newman expressed concern about penalty rates forcing some small businesses to close on weekends.

    Penalty rates don’t force some small businesses to close on weekends. it is the choice of the owner(s) themselves not to work on weekends as to why the business closes.

    They choose not to open as they want their weekend free but expect under Work Choices to be able to employ someone for $7 an hour on weekends.

  8. bg

    Interesting. Can nurses prescribe stuff like pain relief meds now?

    A doctor will sign a pain protocol which gives the nurse the option of a whole bunch of drugs to give and what dose.

    The TGA won’t let nurses actually prescribe pain medication.

  9. castle @2013

    More importantly small business’s live off the discretionary spending of workers. Slash workers wages = slashing their discretionary spending = small business fuacked. Go down that path and it is a vicious circle where they end up disappearing up their fundaments.

  10. poroti

    You certainly would not know that from the prominence the meeja give them.

    The media use the AMA as a dial-a-doctor service so they can fill their columns.

    I have a friend who was AMA head and all he did from the moment he woke up was media interviews on whatever was topical that day. Normally he had no expertise in that field and would often “phone a friend” to find out what to say.

  11. Assume the current Labor Government collected the same average amount of tax as the Howard Government – no more, no less. That is, just to reiterate, an amount equal to 23.4% of GDP for each year from 2008-09 to 2012-13.

    What would be the level of net government debt in this scenario?

    Well, in 2012-13, net government debt would be – wait for it – negative 1.6% of GDP. That is, there would be no government debt. Fact.

    Bookmarked to flog Mod Lib when he peeks out of his hole. 🙂

  12. QUESTION:
    Do you think it was fair that you were given a full briefing about the job cuts before the people in the firing line had been told?

    TONY ABBOTT:
    I am simply quoting from publicly available figures as to the blowout in the size and the costs of the Queensland public service.

    QUESTION:
    Have you been briefed by the Premier about the job cuts that are happening? Did you get briefed last night?

    TONY ABBOTT:

    I talk to my brother Coalition premiers, my Coalition opposition leaders, I talk to them all the time and look, in the end, they call the shots for their states but I certainly talk to them frequently and I have got to say that the Coalition has been a very effective team right around Australia.

    Why can’t he admit he was briefed? Stoopid idiot waffles instead.

  13. William:

    Very erudite, BG, but your argument would have cut through better if you’d suggested a superior alternative.

    If alliteration is out there is always rhyming with allusion …

    Abbott’s war on the poor …

  14. I don’t know why anyone would be surprised by Megalogenis’ attitude to media scrutiny. Yes he can be more sensible than most of his peers most of the time, but he is (as they all are) fully indoctrinated in the ‘media as bulwark against tyranny’ delusion. They actually truly buy into that shit as they act as the PR vehicle of their billionaire employer, his political views and those of assorted powerful vested interests.

    They imagine themselves as Bernsteins and Woodwards as they rehash press releases and regurgitate talking points. And woe betide anyone offering any critique of their work. It’s just not allowed. The media are the chosen ones. They do the holding to account, not the other way around. Ever.

    Try and point out even in the nicest possible terms that someone in the media might have got something wrong, or perhaps they need a little bit of oversight themselves and stand back and watch all the toys get thrown out of the cot. It just does not compute with them. Glass jaws all round, yes even Mega.

  15. More importantly small business’s live off the discretionary spending of workers. Slash workers wages = slashing their discretionary spending = small business fuacked.

    I think that was the whole aim of the stimulus, keep workers employed, keep money flowing, keep confidence up. Abbott, Turnball and sloppy wanted to cut spending and end up like the UK.

  16. I talk to my brother Coalition premiers, my Coalition opposition leaders,

    Only talk to brothers, won’t talk to Redmond, nah Tone doesn’t have a problem with women.

  17. Fran Barlow

    Abbott’s war on the poor …

    A fave toon from “The Wizard of Id” showed a peasant being brought before the king. Where he says that in the king’s ” War on Poverty” initiative he has come to surrender.

  18. Quigs,

    I’m well aware of your site mate. I did write the best interview on it after all. 😉

    Still doesn’t change the fact that the Sharks are and always will be Super League Scum. If only we could send Dallas around to straighten you lot out.

  19. A fave toon from “The Wizard of Id” showed a peasant being brought before the king. Where he says that in the king’s ” War on Poverty” initiative he has come to surrender.

    poroti
    And another one where the King had levied even more taxes Troob asked the King what was to stop the peasants from revolting.
    “Lack of funds” was the answer!

  20. Only talk to brothers, won’t talk to Redmond

    Don’t worry, even if she is leading at the election and wins, there’s nothing stopping Hamilton-Smith or even Evans from doing an Olsen on her…

  21. Abbott’s war on the poor …

    Leave out his name – he may not be leader. His best 3 word slogans e.g. “Stop The Boats” can be used no matter who he is up against.

  22. Carey @2031,

    Good point.

    The CLP in the NT has already dumped their deputy leader.

    The very person Mills stated would stay as deputy leader if the CLP won the election so anything is possible.

  23. Why can’t he admit he was briefed? Stoopid idiot waffles instead.

    Or admit that Can-do wouldn’t bother to tell him ‘jack’.

  24. Rat @2029.

    I will tell you this, if the Mighty Sharks had not gone to Super, then today there would be no Sharks.

    Survival …. and today it has been set in stone.

    Great day for the Black White and Blue.

    Yes Burgs, guilty your worship. Thanks – it has grown into a huge monster. I do miss the old game. Not a fan of todays League, or todays sport in general. The fun and characters have all disappeared.

  25. ratsak:

    Yes he can be more sensible than most of his peers most of the time, but he is (as they all are) fully indoctrinated in the ‘media as bulwark against tyranny’ delusion. They actually truly buy into that shit as they act as the PR vehicle of their billionaire employer, his political views and those of assorted powerful vested interests.

    This is a very important point. As close as they are to where the sausages are made they can scarcely avoid feeling conflicted. You can’t do their job without mountains of hubris, the ability to compartmentalise and to rationalise. Belief in their own inner virtue and grander mission is absolutely essential if they are to function at all. Take that away and all they can see is the cesspool and themselves covered in dubious matter.

    It’s a paradox that their usefulness to their employers lies in their apparent earnestness and moral fibre, which is only possible by progressively abandoning it, little by little. When the conservative, Lord Acton made his famous declaration all those years ago that “power corrupts” he probably didn’t have journalists in mind — they didn’t exist — but the maxim certainly does apply to the Failed Estate.

  26. Worth repeating, Ratsak:

    I don’t know why anyone would be surprised by Megalogenis’ attitude to media scrutiny. Yes he can be more sensible than most of his peers most of the time, but he is (as they all are) fully indoctrinated in the ‘media as bulwark against tyranny’ delusion. They actually truly buy into that shit as they act as the PR vehicle of their billionaire employer, his political views and those of assorted powerful vested interests.

    They imagine themselves as Bernsteins and Woodwards as they rehash press releases and regurgitate talking points. And woe betide anyone offering any critique of their work. It’s just not allowed. The media are the chosen ones. They do the holding to account, not the other way around. Ever.

    Try and point out even in the nicest possible terms that someone in the media might have got something wrong, or perhaps they need a little bit of oversight themselves and stand back and watch all the toys get thrown out of the cot. It just does not compute with them. Glass jaws all round, yes even Mega.

    I agree.

    George is hugely conservative, not a radical at all.

    A nice guy, really smart and comes up with some great columns, but ultimately he wants a nice, steady job for a “proper” company.

    He went off the air on twitter when Mr. Denmore upped the ante a little. He accused Mr. Denore of having a “glass jaw” himself.

    George thinks any criticism of the MSM is out of order. It’s all the pollies and their spin doctors. Nothing to do with the journos at all. Try to prick that bubble and you get him antsy.

    I watched Media Watch last night and, despite criticising The Australian for getting their “trust funds” mixed up with their “slush funds”, Jonathan Holmes defended to the death News’ right to nitpick around the 17 year-old story, saying it was “legitimate”.

    Of course it wasn’t legitimate!

    It was a beat up, a bootstrap par excellence, and no matter how much they tried to inject gravitas into it by laundering it onto the front page of “the national broadsheet” – from its origins in seedy sex-tourism and disgusting semi-pornographic graphic art, levered by high-dudgeon eminating from the eminence grise of Paul Kelly – it was still a cheap excuse to go for Gillard over something that’s been done to death years ago.

    “New facts” and “developing stories” don’t cut it: take a look at Bolt’s blog to see what the real reason was for this story resurfacing: pure, unadulterated sledging of the Prime Minister.

    “There are questions that still need to be answered…”… made me want to puke.

    But to get back to glass jaws, as soon as you question the motives of the journos, or look into their private lives, you get the “You’re full of hate” message or, “You’ve got a glass jaw yourself,” as an excuse to break off the dialogue.

    The basic truth is that no matter where you find them, journalists have far too high an opinion of their “noble” profession. They are not all Woodward and Bernsteins, they are not all driven by the noble quest for truth.

    They run grubby agendas, phoney “exclusives” and bootstrap shamelessly. Murdoch has been doing it for years, decades. And when caught out, they run and hide from legitimate debate.

    I’m normally a bit more direct than Mr. Denmore when trying to engage these people. But being calm and professional, much calmer and less personal than I can manage, didn’t help Mr. D at all. He still copped the shut-out.

    George needs to realize that Twitter isn’t his blog at The Oz. He isn’t the moderator. He doesn’t set the rules. If he wants to engage with someone who’s trying to get a conversation going, especially the excellent and very professional Mr. Denmore, then George shouldn’t take his pads, bat and ball and go home at the first whiff of grapeshot.

  27. BB,

    If he wants to engage with someone who’s trying to get a conversation going, especially the excellent and very professional Mr. Denmore, then George shouldn’t take his pads, bat and ball and go home at the first whiff of grapeshot.

    Which encapsulates all that we need to know about Mr Megalogenis. Such a shame.

  28. Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
    Very sorry to hear PM Gillard’s press sec Sally Tindall is leaving. She’s gonna need a few years break to catch up on all the sleep!

  29. Which encapsulates all that we need to know about Mr Megalogenis. Such a shame.

    Don;t get me wrong about George Megalogenis. I think he’s one of the very best. But he does get caught up in the fairy tale of a noble 4th estate. He tries his best and succeeds 90% of the time.But as for his colleagues… they’re useless.

  30. Evening all.

    The govt using the benefits of incumbency to its advantage in pursuing a carbon trading scheme with the EU. It makes Abbott’s slogans on stopping carbon pricing look all that more hollow and flaky. The coalition have no serious solutions to the global issues of the mid to long term.

    And unsurprisement at Grahame Morris unloading yet another sexist attack on a woman public figure. Sky News should dispense with his services and consign him to hate radio where he’ll fit right in with the other ageing male dinosaurs.

  31. Evening bludgers,

    If you’ve not seen this, have a look. It’s Gough Whitlam speaking about Vol 2 of the book re his life written by Jenny Hocking.

    He’s 96 and frail, but the sparkle is still there!

    http://bit.ly/RU4neD

  32. The link below was posted earlier today.

    Looks like Leveson will tabled recommendations about media regulation well before the end of the year, which will fit in just nicely with developments here –

    Of wider concern to sections of the press are fears that Leveson will recommend some form of statutory legislation regulation in his final report. The Independent understands that behind the scenes, editors and newspaper groups have been lobbying both David Cameron and Nick Clegg to resist calls for statutory legislation – even if it is proposed.

    However, with Labour expected to back the move, the room that the Government has for manoeuvre may be limited.

    In its final submission to Leveson, News International argued that there remained “principled constitutional objections to any element of Parliamentary or statutory control over the freedom of the press”.

    “It may well be posited that, if the press are the guardians, someone should have the power to guard them,” lawyers for the group wrote.

    Truth is its probably too late for them to escape greater regulation in one form or another, but who would believe whatever they print anyway – particularly if it comes from a murdoch outlet.

    Interesting murdoch told Leveson he didn’t know about Hackergate and was hands off, didn’t have the time to closely control what was printed – yet the decision to print the dirty harry photos was taken by him personally?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/press/leveson-witnesses-are-warned-what-to-expect-as-report-is-finalised-8082544.html

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