Seat of the week: Page

UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.

Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.

Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.

Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).

Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,581 comments on “Seat of the week: Page”

Comments Page 63 of 72
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  1. More stuff for David

    Commonwealth-State financial relations are placed on a secure footing with the creation of five new National SPPs, including total funding in 2009-10 of:

    National Healthcare SPP ($11.2 billion);
    National Schools SPP ($9.7 billion);
    National Skills and Workforce Development SPP ($1.3 billion);
    National Disability Services SPP ($0.9 billion);
    National Affordable Housing SPP ($1.2 billion).
    Each National SPP is associated with a National Agreement that contains the objectives, outcomes, outputs and performance indicators, and clarifies the roles and responsibilities that will guide the Commonwealth and States in the delivery of services across the relevant sectors.

  3. Oh well, denied the use of the requested avitar, but looks like I might have made another $200 out of it.

    So once again my avitar is up for the pickings.

  4. BW – The Simoom I had to look up!

    The Scirocco I’ve felt many times and dealt with the dust (OH’s family have a house just north of Menton and you can see the dust in the air over the sea from the house when it blows hard – not too often thankfully).

  5. BB @ 3084,

    [Perhaps I could give a dissertation on differential grid distortion in anamorphic lenses, with specific reference to whether a hyperbolic or cylindrical screen curvature is best suited to cancel it out?]

    BK @ 3091,

    [Or I could expound on the Theory of Constraints.]

    Yes please to both of you!

    😆

  7. Jackol I don’t know that Abbott ruled it out for ever just said that current budget restraints rule it out at present. Look I don’t think there is any doubt we need to invest in education at all levels for the long-term benefit of Australia and individuals but I do think it is fair enough to point out that we currently have a lot of policies underway or under consideration. I’m not sure how we fund them all unless we are all prepared to pay some more tax. We can’t keep funding programs out of borrowings.

    Everyone seems to be dodging the revenue side of things but that can’t last. We do need proper tax reform.

  12. William

    Small correction for the above

    which 31% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 54% say they haven’t

    That should be:

    which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t

    31/54 on that question was the poll for July 9th

  13. rummel

    Could use a picture of a Flame, or lighted torch.

    Maybe the vestal virgins may complain about using the lighted torch,

  14. [ Perhaps I could give a dissertation on differential grid distortion in anamorphic lenses, with specific reference to whether a hyperbolic or cylindrical screen curvature is best suited to cancel it out? ]

    Is that anything like the magnifying glass I use to read the paper?

  15. We can’t keep funding programs out of borrowings.

    We are not, the Govt cut spending by $42 billion in the last budget. The Budget in May 2013 will be in surplus.

  19. davidwh – I’ve got to say I agree with BW’s:

    [Mr Abbott was doing dog whistle and he got blowback. He then tried to dig his way out of a hole and dug it deeper.]

    Usual Abbott – he got called out and, like usual when challenged, ‘lost it’.

  22. [Anyway tonight is a Newspoll night? If the government get another 2% bounce to 48/52 then they are really back in the game and 2% is not a tall ask.]

    Too much too soon old son. Should there be little or no movement then your ‘not a tall ask’ will be thrown up as ‘the ALP didn’t even get a bounce’. The 2PP recovery will be a long process with the significant bounce coming in the two months leading into the campaign when Abbott (or his replacement) will need to find answers to questions such as ‘will you increase taxes by re-adjusting the tax free threshold.’ That will be judgement day.

  23. Rummel: I’ll donate another $25 if – for a whole month – you’ll use Gillard’s triumphant 2010 election win photo 😀

  24. [Perhaps I could give a dissertation on differential grid distortion in anamorphic lenses, with specific reference to whether a hyperbolic or cylindrical screen curvature is best suited to cancel it out?]

    BB Can you hold on until we make sure that SO is way out of sight 🙂

  26. Difficult to know whether the latest encounter between the opposition and the gutter is brought about by early indication of a good Newspoll for the government (which they want to try to nip in the bud).

    On the other hand, it might be that the Newspoll is bad for the government and they’re running hard to reinforce it. Suppose we’ll all know in a few hours.

    Essential seems to be like a supertanker lately – nothing disturbs its constant speed and direction – have to wonder whether their sampling methods haven’t fallen into some sort of hole.

  28. [Essential seems to be like a supertanker lately – nothing disturbs its constant speed and direction – have to wonder whether their sampling methods haven’t fallen into some sort of hole.]

    I have suggested that the polling pool is now polluted with its own waste material. They need fresh blood IMO.

  30. Tome Hawkins

    The 2PP recovery will be a long process

    I’m not sure if this is the case. I haven’t researched it but I don’t think that sharp changes in voting intention are entirely unknown. It may well be that a number of factors build up over a period of time and some event triggers off quite a rapid change. The event may not even be all that significant in itself – the change is really a result off all the things that heve been building behind the scenes.

  32. The Committee has called for the power to revoke press gallery accreditation to journalists who reveal leaks from confidential meetings of committees. Why did Ms Wright miss this most important bit?

  33. [Toorak Toff
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 5:50 pm | Permalink
    Essential Research seems to indicate no change or, if anything, a small moveent to the Coalition.]

    There has been no movement in the polls for more than 15 months, just swings around 55-45.

    The real bite in the Essential results is the stuff about the carbon tax and asylum seekers….neither good for the ALP.

  34. The Finnigans

    As a partial antidote to that disgusting dose of Pickering here is where the avatar of dsmithy70 on that site came from. Great imagery .Music ? Depends on your taste.Aldo is a Canuck so he cannot be all bad.
    BTW dsmithy70 in no way supports Pickering,just check his comment.Warning to BK Avert Your Eyes .
    “Might be time for a few more Donkey/Mirabella comments.”

    Aldo Nova : Life is just a Fantasy can you live this fantasy life”
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhddPnxDWvI

  36. The last newspoll went up while there was an air of calmness around. The last week had some good moments for the Govt. but the ‘noise’ from the Oppn and media has been shrill again. The mob blame the Govt. mostly for that so we may be disappointed in the poll going backwards tonight.

  37. Pickering has a raft of vile cartoons of the PM with the same theme.

    Some small comfort is that he depicts Abbott with a very small penis in contradistinction to his one metre phallus for Bob Hawke.

    Gina gets drawn from behind.

  38. @MrDenmore: @latikambourke Politicians have been deciding media ownership & content for decades. Ryan’s kidding himself if thinks this is a free market.

  39. Is it coincidental that whenever Mr Abbott mis-speaks the transcript of him saying what he really did not say takes ages to transcribe to his website?

  41. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:12 pm | Permalink
    lol mod lib

    wheres the data , you have to show ?]

    Its all provided in the link at the head of this page!

    I am not trying to hide anything….

  42. ML

    The real bite in the Essential results is the stuff about the carbon tax and asylum seekers….neither good for the ALP.

    No it’s not. It’s the attitudinal stuff that revels that many Australians are far to the left of both major parties on a range of issues – there’s a fair bit to build on there, and the government is doing so – NDIS, Gonski to name but two. I also think they’re building up to an increase in the dole in the leadup to the election. With the international financial markets finally seeming to be stabilising as well, the medium term is looking pretty good.

  43. [During outbreaks of Ruddstoration you have my full permission to do so. I would not be Robinson Crusoe on this point . Oh and which one would be best ? :)]

    Cylindrical.

    In other words a straight radius, nothing complicated at all.

  44. [BH
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:13 pm | Permalink
    The last newspoll went up while there was an air of calmness around. ]

    Or perhaps there was an improvement in Newspoll when Gillard was on holiday?

  45. TT: it seems to me the movement has been between ALP and “others”.

    Any shift in the “other” vote, however small, seems to mess with the ALP TPP.

  46. How does Essential sort out its online participants in the poll. How does it work out how many registered are LNP supporters and how many Labor, Greens & Ors.

    Is the polling done equally between those or is it that once the online polling became known that more LNPs joined in than previously when it seemed to be more Labor orientated.

  47. Poroti – The same. I saw that bit and decided Grand Designs looked good – they’re doing a conversion of Draft Horse stables …

  48. @MrDenmore: Democracy fails when the media becomes a player in its own right and publishes lies in pursuit of its commercial and ideological objectives

  49. Shellbel

    Pickering has a raft of vile cartoons of the PM with the same theme.

    Is there any legal remedy for someone attacked in this way to force the perpetrator to cease and desist? I think Pickering is bankrupt, so pursuing him for damages is likely to be useless, but surely there is some other way of shutting stuff like this up. It goes way beyond freedom of speech and I don’t see why someone’s decision to serve in public life should leave them totally exposed to this sort of crap.

  50. Essential:

    Carbon tax questions:
    86% think power costs have gone up
    52% think goods and services have gone up in price (up from 31% in July)
    72% think these price rises are “mainly due to the carbon tax” (exact wording from ER)

    Asylum seeker questions:
    ALP position: 47% disapprove of the people swap deal with Malaysia (vs.30% approve)
    LNP position: 66% approve of considering turning back boats (vs. 21% disapprove)

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