UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.
Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.
Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.
Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).
Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.
Re polls: It’s getting weirder. The numbers are more or less static, but the Coalition is getting perceptibly worse. Last week seems to have been their last hurrah for carbon tax shilling. It also made it abundantly clear that they have no interest in policy at all, seeing as they did have a sort of policy win on boats and had no idea what to do with it. They all seemed rather disappointed that it had been removed as a talking point.
This week looks like shaping up as a debacle for them. They had to begin the week with a beat-up propagated by Larry Pickering (of all people!), or risk having nothing to say. They’ve had a bash at talking down Gonski and that’s already gone pear-shaped. So they’re left with the old standby, disrupting QT.
So now the polls and their behaviour are starting to pull away from each other like a big elastic band. It’ll either snap them back into reality (it should really overshoot into an ALP lead judging by the political performances of the two major parties), or I guess they’ll have to keep that tension held for another 15 months or so. I do find it odd that we have a few media people noticing what a waste of space Abbott is, and the public’s not shifting. It’s usually the press who follow the pack.
[BH
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:16 pm | Permalink
How does Essential sort out its online participants in the poll. How does it work out how many registered are LNP supporters and how many Labor, Greens & Ors.
Is the polling done equally between those or is it that once the online polling became known that more LNPs joined in than previously when it seemed to be more Labor orientated.]
The interesting thing about a poll with a fixed and closed cohort of respondents is that it doesn’t actually even matter if the respondents are representative of the general public.
Now, before everyone gets all excited about that, you can still glean valuable information about trends from such a poll even if you cannot be sure about the accuracy of the actual percentage (which you can never be sure about anyway as there is always a 3% + margin of error!)
The idea that the press might be expected to faithfully report findings that are critical of the press for not reporting faithfully… does seem quite ironic.
ModLib
Some of those answers, however, are open to interpretation.
I would argue, for example, that the majority of people have been looking out for price rises since July 1st, because they’ve been told to expect them.
So you’d expect greater numbers of people to notice price rises. You’d also expect them to attribute them to the carbon price.
Of course, what we don’t have is how they reacted to them.
For example, my electricity bill may have gone up; but it may have been much less than I expected, and thus not really a negative.
davidwh,
[ Can anyone point me to a direct quote from Abbott where he said he was going to cut public school funding? The best I can find so far is that he said public schools already get a better share which is far from saying he would cut funding. ]
One doesn’t need too much in the way of grey matter to read exactly what Abbott was saying here.
You And your fellow travelers are going to have to accept sooner than later that Abbott has such a limited span to operate from now that even Peta must be starting to worry about how she can keep him afloat for much longer.
The game is almost up. Abbott has backflipped so much in recent times that he doesn’t know which way he is facing now.
Watch for another meltdown coming soon.
[Of course, what we don’t have is how they reacted to them.]
We have the TPP going from 56-44 to 57-43 over the last month, in favour of the LNP.
The one song, one super song hit man,Scott McKenzie passed away
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bch1_Ep5M1s
A strange resemblance.
https://twitter.com/Markedw/status/237452668900081664/photo/1/large
ModLib
Which is within MOE so meaningless.
Bushfire Bill
[In other words a straight radius, nothing complicated at all.]
Interesting, photographic lenses which are aspheric are very much the and usually much more expensive than non aspheric lenses. But then one is all about light going in and the other light going out.
[Essential:
Carbon tax questions:
86% think power costs have gone up]]
True… that’s the point of the CT.
[52% think goods and services have gone up in price (up from 31% in July)]
Of course they have.
[72% think these price rises are “mainly due to the carbon tax” (exact wording from ER)]
Dead wrong and you now it Mod Lib. Prices go up every EOFY.
[MMM’s Hot Breakfast @mmmhotbreakfast
Yes! Of course! That’s who Julian Assange looks like with his spiffy hair cut http://twitpic.com/allxmw ]
The NBN will not have the copper yearly maintenace cost,abbott has to be got rid of.
vexnews@vexnews
NBN to save up to AU$700m in copper maintenance costs http://bit.ly/PxOOpj
The polls are next to useless more than 12 to 14 months before an election.
The most interesting figures in my view are that of Tony Abbott, far too unpopular for an opposition leader to be PM.
I think the Dragons will be hard to beat tonight 😎
ReachTEL Primary Vote for Queensland via Possum
LNP 44.2, ALP 31.6, KAP 9.6, Grn 9.2, Others 5.4
SK
Too true!
bemused@3031,
*YAWN*
So boringly predictable.
[zoomster
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:29 pm | Permalink
ModLib
Which is within MOE so meaningless.]
True, but what about all the talk here about how things would turn around once the carbon tax was legislated, introduced and the compensation package was legislated and introduced?
The point I am making is that things have headed in the other way in Essential.
Pollytics trend line is a complete flatline (quite appropriate given the ALP primary vote) since April, or in fact it has been 54-46 to the Coalition (or better for the Coalition) since April 2011
Mod Lib – Talcum has been very well behaved for the last 6 months or so.
He’s been showing lots of interest in international relations. He’s done a talk for instance on ‘China’ at the LSE some months ago (well recieved) – a practice run?
He written quite a bit since on Asia, most recently a review of Hugh Whites’ latest book in which he incorporated lots of his own thoughts (again well received).
I’m wondering if he’s done a deal with the ‘powers above him’ to be Foreign Minister if they get in? (own separate fiefdom etc would probably suit him).
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
Newman will be nervous – the nasty budget stuff has only been partially released. Majority of it to come yet]
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
In two party preferred, Newman has lost nearly 7 points in 6 months – from 62.8% at election to around 56%.]
Schnappi
[The one song, one super song hit man,Scott McKenzie passed away
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bch1_Ep5M1s ]
Thank you for the link.Sad news. That was the song I had in my head when a dozen years later I stood on the corner of Haight and Ashbury imagining what it would have been like “back in the day”.
[The polls are next to useless more than 12 to 14 months before an election.]
Bwahahahaha
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:32 pm | Permalink
[Essential:
Carbon tax questions:
86% think power costs have gone up]]
True… that’s the point of the CT.
52% think goods and services have gone up in price (up from 31% in July)
Of course they have.
72% think these price rises are “mainly due to the carbon tax” (exact wording from ER)
Dead wrong and you now it Mod Lib. Prices go up every EOFY.]
Dead wrong?
Huh?
I quoted the exact figures published by Essential.
What have I done wrong?
What talk, I think most people said the opposite.
Did any PBer’s watch Michael Moore’s, ‘Capitalism, A love affair’?
[What talk, I think most people said the opposite.]
R U seriously telling me you don’t recall PB posters caliming things would get better for the ALP once the carbon tax was actually introduced and the compensation package started?
[Bushfire Bill
In other words a straight radius, nothing complicated at all.
Interesting, photographic lenses which are aspheric are very much the and usually much more expensive than non aspheric lenses. But then one is all about light going in and the other light going out.]
Technically speaking anamorphic lenses ARE “aspheric”, in that their surface is not spherical. Rather, they are cylindrical.
However, the curvature is circular, not some other type of curve (e.g. not parabolic or hyperbolic).
You could improve the performance of anamorphic lenses by making them non-circular in curvature but, at the size they need to be produced, you’d be looking at selling your house to buy one.
So, anamorphic lens designers try to make the best of “circular”, rather than go to a more sophisticated curvature.
The curvature of the screen needed to properly correct pincushion and differential geometric distortion is most likely not precisely cylindrical, but when you’re talking tens of thousands of dollars to correct a sub millimetre aberration on a sixty-foot wide screen, cylindrical curvatures are easier to manufacture than more exotic curvatures.
Take a piece of string.Measure the length out to the radius required. Walk it across the image area. Mark key points with a piece of chalk, and you have a cylindrical screen.
Try doing that with a hyperbolic (or other type of) curve (depending on exact design of the optics), all to save a tenth of a millimetre in sixty feet.
Ah fargeddaboudit.
It’s a no-brainer.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
Newman will be nervous – the nasty budget stuff has only been partially released. Majority of it to come yet]
A budget to be released on (drumroll please) 9/11. Normally I am agin such mercanisms but for CanJoh I am willing to make an exception.
did anyone watch channel 7 news?
[pollblogger @democracyATwork 27m
Seven News fails to name “Men of influence ” claiming that the PM is to be removed by the week. #auspol #sevennews]
[davidwh
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Permalink
leone I don’t have a problem with accepting Abbott said public schools have adequate funding I just can’t see where he said he would cut public school funding which is the claim the PM made that led to Abbott’s expulsion from the House.]
David
With all due respect, don’t you get it yet? Truth doesn’t matter any more. Your own leader has set the new rules of the game. He has been lying his head off for years now – almost every time he opens his mouth – and no-one in the media ever calls him on it. So if he has been hoisted on his own petard this time I really don’t give a shit. There should be a lot more of it as far as I’m concerned. It’s time for the government to take the gloves off.
Yes, most people were saying it needed to be a lived experience and it would take time. The July 1st surge is Liberal Party spin.
Dee
I watched it sometime ago. Easy to understand why The US is in the crapper. If Abbott gets in, we wont be far behind
i missed it tonight
my guess if it was a mark riley report
the man is peter Garrett ?
Things have gotten better for the ALP since July 1.
The ALP is on top in the political debate at the moment.
If the likes of Mod Lib want to still be guided by irrelevant opinion polls when politics is the furthest thing from voters minds;
be a FOOL!
De e3176\Re “Capitalism’A Love Story” Michael Moore
__________________________
Yes I watched it …a really brilliant look at the American Crisis
and did you notice the “Internationale ” sung at the end
Great siuff
His best film
_
[R U seriously telling me you don’t recall PB posters caliming things would get better for the ALP once the carbon tax was actually introduced and the compensation package started?]
m gum sai hei
A new reality is created all the time by some here.
I wouldn’t expect the polls to change much at all, just vacillations within MOE. The latest bit of nonsense will make it difficult for gillard to raise her approval. McKew’s book in October I think will be the final straw for her since no doubt the whole issue of the knifing will be raked over all again. That will make it impossible for Gillard Labor to lift it stakes significantly after that.
[#ReachTEL QLD State Poll – Primary: LNP 44.2 (-12.3) ALP 31.6 (+9.8) KAP 9.6 (+2.2) Grn 9.2 (-0.2) Others 5.4 (-0.6) #auspol #qldpol]
I know it’s reachTEL, but it’s still interesting
CTar1,
The Oops already have a wonderful Foreign Affairs shadow! Why would they want to change?
victoria
I was screaming at the TV. “The PM is in trouble, Pollies say (quote Richo)” “Pink Batts a complete failure because someone died.” Exactly as some foretold.
That teen who died was the responsibility of his boss and died from (it seems) heatstroke plus possible after-effects of drugs plus no liquid.
But Ch7 says it’s Labor 😡 (thank goodness for emoticons!)
[
Take a chill pill mate. You are getting overwrought.
I also pointed to how, if associated with a bank statement showing a corresponding withdraw it was much stronger.
I suspect she would have produced more than just receipts to satisfy S&G.]
bemused, I’m certain you’d have taken a much more benign view of such a beat-up if Rudd was at the centre of it, as he was with Ackerman’s pathetic rubbish.
Good heavens! That slimeball Pascarelli has been trying to flog the “story” for years. The Lib dirt machine tried to unload it during the 2007 campaign, and failed, the current one has been led by The Australian and the momentum carried by 2GB, Mitchell et al. And did you notice a pattern following the collapse of the Thomson and Slipper affairs?
Strange company to be in. Vested interests comes to mind. The only non-aligned media hack to give it any credence was Richardson. And while he’d probably still advocate a vote for Labor if pressed, there’s no doubt he’s playing the tune of the piper, whoever that might be.
You’re better than this, bemused. Treat it with the contempt it deserves. The only serious concern is how much our democratic institutions are undermined by these beat-ups. And why there is no media commitment to integrity.
Dee
[Did any PBer’s watch Michael Moore’s, ‘Capitalism, A love affair’?]
Yes, but was continually distracted by posts in PB,and some twitterers
I saw something over the weekend where pickering was boasting and welcoming legal action as a way of drawing the matter out and getting more attention.
He sure seems like a piece of work.
ModLib
no one said it was instant!
This poll has scarcely moved at all – the primaries haven’t shifted, and the 2PP has only moved because of rounding – in other words, things have ‘headed the other way’ by a statistically insignificant number.
I personally didn’t expect – and don’t expect – any seismic shifts yet. People are still ‘waiting and seeing’ when it comes to price rises (they will take the attitude, quite rightly, that the full cost impacts haven’t come through yet).
The very fact you are getting all excited by a poll which you yourself must know is basically meaningless suggests a level of desperation on your part!
(I will tip this: if there is a shift to Labor, there will be an ‘excuse’ for it, just as Tampa provided an ‘excuse’ to shift back to the Libs – that is, a big story which allows people to switch without losing face).
TLBD – Of course, how could I forget that …
Dee
It’s not in the same league as “Bowling for Columbine” or “Sicko”
[pollblogger @democracyATwork 27m
Seven News fails to name “Men of influence ” claiming that the PM is to be removed by the week. #auspol #sevennews]
Riley trying to curry favour.
He’s a wimp, a pure creation of Reality TV, where he couldn’t see a rusty nail he was about to tread on because his head is too far in the clouds and his ears are listening to voices.
[Danny Lewis
Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:47 pm | Permalink
#ReachTEL QLD State Poll – Primary: LNP 44.2 (-12.3) ALP 31.6 (+9.8) KAP 9.6 (+2.2) Grn 9.2 (-0.2) Others 5.4 (-0.6) #auspol #qldpol
I know it’s reachTEL, but it’s still interesting]
I think you have used the TPP result for those swings!
The LNP primary vote was under 50% at the election and 44% now (about a 5% swing) and ditto for the ALP (about a 5% swing to them).
It beggars belief that high fee private schools should get extra funding from the taxpayer. The whole idea of the current funding model was that it would reduce costs to parents – and what has it done – funded what is essentially an arms race between private schools to see which can have the biggest and shiniest new facilties and new extras – and yet the fees are still spiralling up way beyond the rate of inflation. The parents in these schools are in a state of suspended disbelief as they cannot not believe that they are doing the best for little Jimmy. They have too much financial, social and emotional investment in that disbelief. It is only when it all goes wrong that the scales fall from their eyes.