Seat of the week: Page

UPDATE: Essential Research has primary votes unchanged on last week, at 32% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens, although rounding has resulted in an increase in the Coalition’s two-party lead from 56-44 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on power prices, with 37% thinking power companies most responsible against 28% for the federal government and 23% for state governments; price increases under the carbon tax, which 52% (including 68% of Coalition voters) say they have noticed and 36% say they haven’t; and the various aspects of the Houston report recommendations, which find very strong support for limiting the ways boat arrivals can bring their families to Australia, opinion divided on increasing the humanitarian program and strong opposition to the Malaysia solution, but strong approval for implementing them all as per the new government policy.

Page covers the north-eastern corner of New South Wales, outside of the northernmost coastal stretch from Byron Bay to the Queensland border which constitutes Richmond. Its main population centres are Ballina on the coast, Lismore and Casino further inland, and Grafton in the south. Labor’s strongest area is Lismore, with the remainder generally leaning slightly to the Nationals. With a median age of 44, the electorate is second only to Lyne as the oldest in Australia, and it ranks in the bottom ten on all measures of income. There are correspondingly low numbers of mortgage payers and high numbers of unemployed, along with the fifth lowest proportion of residents whose main language is other than English.

Page was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984, from an area which had historically been divided between Richmond and Cowper. It was won in 1984 by Ian Robinson, who had held Cowper for the National/Country Party since 1963. Like his party leader Charles Blunt in neighbouring Richmond, Robinson was a surprise casualty of the 1990 election, when he was unseated by a 5.2% swing to Labor’s Harry Woods. Woods held on by 193 votes in 1993 before inevitably going out with the tide in 1996. The seat was then held for the Nationals throughout the Howard years by Ian Causley, who had previously been the state member for Clarence – which Harry Woods then proceeded to win at the by-election to fill his vacancy.

Page did not swing greatly on Causley’s watch, but the Nationals benefited from redistributions which added 1.0% to the margin in 2001 and 1.3% in 2007. This did not avail them when Causley retired at the 2007 election, with Labor’s Janelle Saffin picking up a 7.8% swing to defeat Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis (now the member for Clarence after retaining the seat for the Nationals at a November 2011 by-election). In swing terms, Saffin achieved the best result of any Labor member in New South Wales at the 2010 election by picking up a swing of 2.5%, the only other seats in the state to record pro-Labor swings being Robertson (0.9%), Dobell (1.2%) and Eden-Monaro (1.9%).

Saffin was a Lismore-based member of the state upper house from 1995 until the 2003 state election, when she withdrew from preselection after it became apparent she would not retain a winnable position on the ticket. In the period between her two spells in politics, she resumed work as a human rights lawyer and then took up a position in East Timor in 2006 as adviser to Jose Ramos Horta. Saffin publicly supported Kevin Rudd during his leadership challenge in February 2012. The Nationals have again nominated their candidate from 2010, Clunes businessman and farmer Kevin Hogan, who won preselection ahead of Clarence Valley mayor Richie Williamson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,581 comments on “Seat of the week: Page”

Comments Page 65 of 72
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  5. Aguirre@3151,
    For that reason, I am going to be very interested in Newspoll when it comes out tonight. For the life of me I can’t remember an Opposition so functionally incapable, when it comes to policy formation, as this one, so dismissive of parliamentary procedures and traditions, as this one, but one whose best talent is being able to find the sweet spot in the public mind and bore into it with consummate precision, day after day. Which is where their support in the polls is coming from. They are floating on a bed of hot air of their own making.

    However, Abbott’s Labor congener, Mark Latham, was also in a similar position of public popularity until he came crashing back to earth all of a sudden, via some well-written exposes by some serious senior journalists, as I remember it. One particularly nasty one came via an interview with his first wife.

    So it is for this reason that I await David Marr’s piece on Abbott in next month’s ‘The Monthly’, to see if it has a similar effect. Lord knows there must be at least one or two skeletons in the Abbott closet which may come out, and crystalise a public uneasiness about him which may finally reflect upon the Coalition poll figures.

  6. [The very fact you are getting all excited by a poll which you yourself must know is basically meaningless suggests a level of desperation on your part!]

    I can assure you that I am not getting excited, but I am pretty confident as to what is going on here: the electorate are peeved with Gillard and the ALP brand and biding their time until they can do something about it.

    Time will tell whether I am right I guess!

  7. [ The only serious concern is how much our democratic institutions are undermined by these beat-ups. And why there is no media commitment to integrity.]

    We are a small pond in Australia.

    At least in the UK there is some diversity.

    Here it’s all spin, all the time. We may not have invented Reality TV, but we;ve taken it to its logical extremities.

    Clive James sussed it all two decades ago: Reality TV is not only taking over television, it’s taking over our lives.

  8. I’m a rubbish prognosticator, but for what it’s worth I think people like to imagine their governments are listening to them or understand concerns, real or imagined. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some improvement in Newspoll, but at the end of the day if there isn’t it really doesn’t mean much a year out anyway.

  10. [Time will tell whether I am right I guess!]

    Have you ever been right about anything you have said here before?

    I definitely can’t recall, not once!

  12. ajm

    Not really. Stopping people publishing defamatory images on an interim basis is rare. John Marsden failed to stop channel 7 and lenah Keats failed against the ABC.

    To stop it the PM would need to prove the images are defamatory at a final trial to stop it as the RSPcA dud revenue with a crazy blogger.

  13. What’s interesting about Essential is the question itself.

    Prices ALWAYS go up after July 1. Year in, year out. A “set your watch by it” increase. Surprise, surprise; this year was no different in that sense.

    What DOES make it different in another sense is a specific and very well publicised policy introduction at the same time, which makes it all too easy to conflate the “usual” July 1 price rise with “carbon tax – boo!” price rise.

    For mine, it’s about as close as you can get to push polling while still staying on the right side of the line.

    Too clever by half, the bastards.

    Grrrr.

  14. [Have you ever been right about anything you have said here before?

    I definitely can’t recall, not once!]

    Pretty much on the ball with all election results, USA and here.

    I did get the prediction of Gillard being gone by July 1st (sounds like I might be out by 2 months according to some news reports today!!!), however, she should have been dumped, that is very clear, so I can’t be blamed for caucus stupidity!!!!!

  15. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:56 pm | Permalink
    What’s interesting about Essential is the question itself.

    Prices ALWAYS go up after July 1. Year in, year out. A “set your watch by it” increase. Surprise, surprise; this year was no different in that sense.

    What DOES make it different in another sense is a specific and very well publicised policy introduction at the same time, which makes it all too easy to conflate the “usual” July 1 price rise with “carbon tax – boo!” price rise.

    For mine, it’s about as close as you can get to push polling while still staying on the right side of the line.

    Too clever by half, the bastards.

    Grrrr.]

    Isn’t Essential a polling firm for the Union movement?

  16. C@tmomma

    The QE of David Marr’s on Abbott due out next month is “inside the cycleway” stuff.

    His polling is going nowhere as people have already made up their minds on him

  17. Oakeshott has said that if Labor wants an early election, change the leader.

    It’s a beat up!

    The mainstream media are desperate, they know Abbott can’t beat Gillard in 2013.

    Also Jennifer Hewett needs all the help she can get as time ticks away.

  18. Didn’t Mark Riley predict the PM would be gone by September 11th? Seems he, and whoever is conspiring with him in the Labor Party, are just working towards having that prophecy fulfilled. Despicable slimeballs.

  19. Dee
    [Kate Ellis ‏@KateEllisMP
    Good work Ch 7 running leadership speculation as your 3rd story whilst pushing little issue of the future of Aus school funding down to 11th ]

  21. [Centre
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
    Oakeshott has said that if Labor wants an early election, change the leader.

    It’s a beat up!

    The mainstream media are desperate, they know Abbott can’t beat Gillard in 2013.]

    A majority of voters in a majority of seats wanted Abbott to be Prime Minister in 2010.

    Do you seriously think there will be a swing TO THE ALP at the next election do you?

  22. [The parents in these schools are in a state of suspended disbelief as they cannot not believe that they are doing the best for little Jimmy. They have too much financial, social and emotional investment in that disbelief. It is only when it all goes wrong that the scales fall from their eyes.]
    It’s the same phenomenon as when people bought Volvos years ago when really they were unreliable shitboxes but they wouldn’t hear a word spoken against them.
    Also a HUGE turn off is when at a social gathering the parents start talking about the private schools they send little Harrison and Brianna to.

  23. Debonlay
    [Yes I watched it …a really brilliant look at the American Crisis
    and did you notice the “Internationale ” sung at the end
    Great siuff
    His best film]
    Quite sometime ago I watched a B Grade movie where employers insured their workers and some of them were bumped off to secure the insurance money.
    I thought this was all fantasy stuff.
    I honestly wasn’t aware that employers insuring their workers and reaping the benefits from their deaths was a reality.
    In their documents they referred to them as Dead Peasants.
    Unbelievable!
    The show brought home everything George Carlin said in his comedy routines.

  24. catmomma

    On twitter there has been mention of something happening at the seminary. No idea what. Maybe Marr will be onto it.
    I like the idea of Marr being author of Abbotts downfall. It would hurt Abbott more than most given his publicly stated fear of homosexuals.

  25. [Good work Ch 7 running leadership speculation as your 3rd story whilst pushing little issue of the future of Aus school funding down to 11th ]

    School finding not even getting a look in on the Fairfax websites.

  27. [I did get the prediction of Gillard being gone by July 1st (sounds like I might be out by 2 months according to some news reports today!!!)]

    “I got him right between the eyes, but technically I missed by three inches, so there was no blood.”

    Pathetic. Not even up to Mod Lib’slamentable standards.

  31. lizzie

    [victoria

    I was screaming at the TV. “The PM is in trouble, Pollies say (quote Richo)” “Pink Batts a complete failure because someone died.”]
    The SMH highlights the truth . The employer is to blame.The drug thang is mere smear.
    [A teenager who died after installing insulation for a company in a western Sydney home under a federal program had not undergone any training from the firm, a coronial inquest has heard
    He said in the roofing industry it was common practice to stop work when the mercury hit 32 degrees.However, Mr Lawson said the director of Pride, Ryan Glover, made it clear that “the work had to be done”………
    Mr Wilson died of heat stroke in Nepean Hospital the next day.

    The teenager had filled in for a friend who worked as a contractor for Pride Building, the inquiry heard. He had not undergone any training or induction programs with the company.His partner on the day, Collin Cini, had worked in insulation for only a few weeks before Mr Wilson’s death.Mr Cini’s only training had been a four-hour course, which he said did not cover the dangers of working in confined spaces.

    Mr Cini said that, during the course, he was given a question and answer assessment, but the answers were provided.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/teenager–who-died-installing-batts-had-no-company-training-inquest-20120820-24hko.html#ixzz244iPsbxJ

  33. guytaur

    It will be like what he wrote about Howard and the media in 2007. It will have a lot of left wing talking points, maybe one or two new revelations (which will be given no credibility because it’s Marr) and get a lot of correspondence from the right wing politically correct thought police such as Bolt, Albrechtsen, Henderson, Switzer etc and maybe one or two Liberal MP’s and that’s about it.

  35. Mod Lib

    Gillard will win again in 2013.

    There’s your leadershit – great news on school funding.

    The government continues to move forward.

    *back after game*

  36. Centre:

    You think I am hopeless predictions, OK, lets see.

    You are predicting a swing to the ALP at the next election and I am predicting a big swing to the Coalition with a big win.

    Let us compare predictions after the next election, eh? Can’t tell you how much I look forward to our discussions about relative prediction abilities!!!!

    ….assuming you hang around after the results are in of course. 🙂

  37. [I think you have used the TPP result for those swings!

    The LNP primary vote was under 50% at the election and 44% now (about a 5% swing) and ditto for the ALP (about a 5% swing to them).]

    I took it exactly as is from a post on Twitter.

    Can’t vouch for its veracity, which is why I made the point of saying it was reachTEL ;-).

  39. [It beggars belief that high fee private schools should get extra funding from the taxpayer.]

    Three cheers for New Labor.

  41. [sammut fulvio
    Posted Monday, August 20, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
    ML @ 3221, Pinocchio!]

    Actually its correct. A majority of voters in 76 electorates preferred the LNP when directly compared with the ALP.

  42. Poor ModLib

    Every day Gillard stays in the leadership makes his dream of the Turnbull resurgence look a little more faded.

    And if Abbott’s still there, you know how ML is likely to vote…

  44. School funding on the abc re abnott giving his speach after the pm
    Was he just speaking to his audience
    what would he say at a state shool function

    State school p and F, will not be happy
    And neither they should be

  45. Voters were also told Mr Newman was “implementing a number of initiatives to reduce the state’s debt” and were asked how they felt about the new initiatives.

    About 49 per cent said the measures had “gone too far”, nearly 15 per cent said they had “not gone far enough”, about 33 per cent said it was too early to tell and the remainder were indifferent.

    Voters were polarised when rating the performance of Mr Newman as Queensland Premier.

    About 44 per cent felt he was doing a good or very good job (down 7 percentage points) while 42 per cent felt he was doing a poor or very poor job (up nearly 14 per cent).

    Voters were evenly divided when asked whether Mr Newman had mostly kept his election promises so far, with 39.3 per cent of respondents saying he had kept his word while the same number – 39.3 per cent – believed he had not.

    About one in five voters was unsure.

    Nearly 46 per cent of voters said Mr Newman’s performance made them less likely to vote for the LNP in future, nearly 33 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for the LNP, while the rest would not change their vote either way based on the Premier’s performance.

    Mr Newman responded to the poll results by saying he and his ministers were “sorry” that they were hurting people with their decisions”

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newmans-poll-slump-as-cuts-polarise-voters-20120820-24ibt.html#ixzz244kwhhEv

  47. [Also a HUGE turn off is when at a social gathering the parents start talking about the private schools they send little Harrison and Brianna to.]

    An even bigger turn off is the ‘don’t you care about your childs education?’ look usually accompanied by speechlessness you get when you mention that your child goes to the local state high school. The answer is Yes – we do care – and we chose the school that suited young pseph and that happens to be the local state high school. We are fortunate, however, to be in an area with a range of good state high schools – could be a bit grim if this was not the case.

  48. zoomster:

    There is nothing better for a liberal voter than Gillard contesting the next election.

    I suspect the ALP will be wiped out if they present her as the leader. Clearly I am in a minority here, but that doesn’t mean I am wrong! LOL 🙂

    If she remains, it is less likely, but not impossible, for Abbott to be deposed.

    Even if he is not deposed, I am banking on him getting dumped soon enough and the leading contenders are moderates (except for Morrison). Given the number of seats the Coalition is likely to win, I can live with a brief Abbott stint, followed by a long moderate one!!!

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