This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
[Ok showson – “formally withdrawn allegations”.]
Correction: He has removed the claim that Ashby’s leaking of the diary extracts was “unlawful”, because the lawfulness of doing so is irrelevant to the case which Asbhy’s lawyers were using to derail the entire proceedings.
[Pedantry isn’t my thing but whatever rows your boat.]
Correction: The proper saying is “whatever floats your boat”.
[go and join the Communist Party]
hehehe love it. the intellectual profundity
Doesn’t it sum up everything about the thinking of the tiny group of onanists that make up the modern ALP?
It certainly has been a contributing factor to the appalling state of our politics.
Mod Lib @ 6933
Other ALP members here admit both she and Rudd have made mistakes.
The truly narrow minded are mostly not ALP members.
I agree, but she needs Abbott to remain as LOTO.
I guess I am the eternal optimist who won’t give up until the last seat is decided to give ‘the enemy’ a majority.
I believe there is a better option, more likely to succeed, but we fight with what we have.
[Sorry about the double post – must be the DTs]
Apology not accepted.
[Schnappi
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 10:00 pm | Permalink
rummel
Seem to recall you met TLBD , he has my email address,assume you have his just ask duck for it as could be quicker, but ask wb if not.]
I can try that, though i have already sent WB an email.
rummel
No Problem
Psephos
[It was you who raised the subject with your “Taliban” comment.
So which one of the 57 varieties of far left sects do you belong to?]
I had never heard the word “Taliban Wing” until a few posts before my comment!! hehehe
I belong to that ultra extremist far left sect called “social democrat”. It is I admit a little left of you USA Democrats.
St Kilda’s season is teetering on the brink.
[I belong to that ultra extremist far left sect called “social democrat”.]
Then you are more than welcome in the ALP Right: working effectively for social democracy since 1970: the faction of Whitlam, Hawke, Keating – and Rudd! (Also Wran, Bracks, Carr and Rann.)
dave @ 6946
So what is the standard of proof you require?
That is fair enough for facts, but opinions are just that and can always be disputed.
Psephos
Regarding a previous post of yours,Harry Smiths substanstive rank was Major and retired as a Lt Colonel, not full Colonel.
Not trying a put down , but some are not really aware of ranks, and Harry is usually referred to a Major Smith.
as
WHY IS SHOPPING FOR A NOTEBOOK COMPUTER SO HARD!?
All I want is something capable of being used to start arguments on Poll Bludger.
I simply DON’T NEED things like BLUE TOOTH TECHNOLOGY because I can’t see how that will help me argue with people on Poll Bludger?
IT’S ALL TOO HARD!
[Not trying a put down , but some are not really aware of ranks, and Harry is usually referred to a Major Smith.]
That’s interesting. Is that like how Compact Crank is a Major Wanker?
6302 spur
[It simply comes with the territory. Personally, I see the challenge of trying to convince some people on here of the situation the same challenge that Gillard has of trying to get swing voters to vote for the ALP and approve of her leadership in spite of extremely firm beliefs and psychological associations about her (esp in Queensland and WA where the seats need to be won). In short extremely difficult. ]
Leroy brought up spur’s position the other day – quite accurately, I believe, that spur is indeed a Labor supporter even though some think he is either Lib or a concern troll. It is a fruitless mission, which is probably why it attracts hostility. I still don’t understand what damage Gillard was supposed to have done by taking a break earlier this month.
In fact, I’d suggest it might have done some good. Twice now she has turned the heat on the tory states firstly with NDIS and then with electricity rate hikes. The latter has so taken what little remaining wind Abbott had on his Carbon Tax campaign that even the MSM has had to note he’s been floundering.
OK, the polls are stubbornly rotten despite minor shifts. I remain unconvinced that they will stay so over the coming months because there is little left for Abbott-Credlin to cling to in maintaining the illusion that this is an incompetent, dishonest and corrupt government. Even the so-called “scandals” are turning back on the accusers.
Nobody (in the MSM, and among the public at large) has yet noticed the incongruity of the Abbott-Credlin line. How can such an inept government continue to outperform every other advanced nation on all key economic indicators: employment, growth, debt-to-GDP rating, 3-star credit rating by all rating agencies, low inflation? Can it merely be a series of flukes that this record has been achieved and sustained? The Abbott-Credlin line is a lie and will be seen as such.
And related to that, why should Abbott be believed on this when he is without credibility on just about any subject?
And how can a fraudulent, do-anything-to-survive, government become a world leader in major reforms such as carbon pricing and plain-paper cigarette packet labels, which most health specialist believe will break the seductive nature of sales to young people leading to addictions and massive public health burdens? It’s incongruous. News Ltd and their lackeys across the MSM have convinced a large section of the public that black is white. It’s surely unsustainable over time.
spur’s central claim is that the public cannot trust or believe Gillard, presumably because of the Rudd coup and the carbon tax “lie” (which was not). Again it seems incongruous alongside a fairly competent ministry and bureaucracy, where Gillard seems to be the glue that’s kept the whole show focused. The government continues to govern and to deliver reforms.
The central problem with the spur position, however, is this: the removal of Gillard invalidates all of the reforms and good governance achieved, while validating the Abbott-Credlin Tea Party tactics aimed at undermining representative democracy. To give in to that is to surrender to fraud.
Not only that, but the Labor Party government would be in disarray over such a move. Rudd is probably the only alternative with any public standing, but he is lacking in ministerial and caucus support and probably among the bureaucracy. There is plenty of ministerial talent but none with sufficient standing to take over the PM’s position at present.
We’re far better off to continue to achieve and deliver. If a year from now the public decides they prefer to gamble on their future with an opposition offering no credible alternative … well, there is little hope for Australian democracy and representative government.
Fiddling around with the leadership will not change any of that. It’s still up to the public and they often get it wrong. But that’s part of the price of a democracy.
Others ask you for proof – you wave them away with disdain.
Just put up and others will put up.
Its very rare for example for me not to provide *proof*.
But you don’t so why should I.
In fact it well known what you do with shaved goats and and a pound of butter – no use denying it.
Schnappi, I had a fair amount to do with the Long Tan medals issue last year, and he was always referred to as Colonel Smith. For example:
Colonel Smith, now 78, said his men had been denied their medals and bravery awards by the senior command’s perception that Vietnam was not a ”real war” and an honours system that was manipulated in favour of the higher ranks.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/long-tans-unsung-heroes-to-get-day-in-court-20101230-19b77.html#ixzz23nyk2o00
GD:
In the end spur212 agreed with me that the PM taking a break in the first week of the Olympics (when Australians were obsessed with our performance in the pool), wasn’t a bad idea after all.
St Kilda’s season is over.
dave @ 6966
Are you seeking a prize for stupidity?
That post would qualify.
Lateline is early tonight
You cornered the *stupidity* market long ago and still own it on a monopoly and heredity basis.
good on you rummel, hope you reach your target.
Michael Kroger has the look of a spitting image puppet these days.
Can Dave and Bemused knock it off please.
Pesphos
Understand what you mean , however Lt Colonel is referred to as Colonel, Lance Corporal (L/Cpl) is referred to as corporal, was just a point about ranks.
And Kosi gives donuts for the saints tonight. Pathetic.
dave @ 6972
Show me my allegedly stupid comment that even approaches yours @ 6966?
Sorry William, only just saw your 6975.
rummel # 6900, thanks for the link, I’m in for it (the money not the running or the haircut)
my slightly older cousin Deb died at age 16 in the 70s (she was the cool one with suzi quatro records etc, we younger ones idolised her) from a form of leukaemia which I believe is pretty much beaten now, she went through some experimental treatment with no hope at all for herself and a very clear eyed intention to do what she could to help others for the future
I would love to.
See Williams posts #6975
[You cornered the *stupidity* market long ago and still own it on a monopoly and heredity basis.]
I will have to come to Bemused’s defence here, despite his unfortunate kevinist tendencies. Compared to quite a number of others, his posts tonight have been models of good sense and good manners.
[David Donovan @davrosz 3m
Been told Tony Windsor has a v revealing voice message from T. Abbott. Abbott might want to be careful he doesn’t annoy Windsor too much…]
[Colonel Smith, now 78, said his men had been denied their medals and bravery awards by the senior command’s perception that Vietnam was not a ”real war” and an honours system that was manipulated in favour of the higher ranks.]
A bloke directing artillery fire to save the troops get shot and killed and no mention whilst a postal officer in a safe haven gets a mention, I get the feeling there may have been some manipulation.
Why any of the troops would vote lib is astounding considering how the libs treat them.
It was keating who gave them a homecoming parade after the libs snubbed them for so many years as failures.
for 14 years from 1996 to 2010 they pressed for recognition of Long Tan, the libs ignored them again, labor didn’t.
go back further and you find labor bringing them back to defend Australia whilst the libs wanted to give them to brits as cannon fodder.
Gorgeous Dunny
Leroy knows who I am on twitter. Indeed, I used to be quoted quite often here when I was pro Gillard. Similar sort of respect to Andrew Elder (who I’m a big fan of as he gets Abbott’s DLP/big government conservative positions on issues far better than most) until I changed my position on the leadership question which has clearly offended many here
I was distraught when I realised what the problem was. I had extremely high hopes for the PM and thought that a lot of the baggage could be overcome but after looking at all the evidence I have available to me and what I know in regards to marketing and consumer behaviour (where I’m qualified), I know that things are quite simply too far gone for her. It’s nothing personal against her
As for the break thing, I was swayed by the argument that it was a good point during the Olympics to take a break. Didn’t realise that it was planned that way at the time.
[David Donovan @davrosz 5m
That’s the word, and it’s from a very trusted source]
[Been told Tony Windsor has a v revealing voice message from T. Abbott]
My arse is yours?
My arse, my arse, a prime minister ship for my arse?
Bruce Hawker giving a staunch defense of the labor brand tonight, not.
Wanker.
Psephos @ 6982
As they normally are, even when I disagree with someone on a point.
Disagreements can be respectful and should be kept that way.
[David Donovan @davrosz 3m
Been told Tony Windsor has a v revealing voice message from T. Abbott. Abbott might want to be careful he doesn’t annoy Windsor too much…]
If you read Windsor’s speech from the censure motion yesterday it is blatantly obvious that he won’t support Abbott becoming PM under any circumstances.
I have to laugh at the sudden belling of the Abbott cat congratulations being bandied about by various journo’s. PBers have been calling it since day dot.
Message to the media – you are two years too late.
Capt Maurie Stanley the kiwi Forward Observation Officer*Sheldrake* was not overlooked –
He was also honoured by Australia with an Australian Unit Citation.
But I take the point you are getting at.
castle @ 6984
Good post and I particularly agree with this.
I resented the right wing propaganda I was subjected to in the RAAF and rebelled against it.
It made me do some research, mainly in the base library, where I formed my anti-Vietnam War opinions and woke up to the way the Fibs just saw the military as playthings to be used for political purposes.
My anger remains.
rummel, payment appears to have worked. In case message on site hasnt, it was, “Pollbludgers stick together””. Thanks for the opportunity to support the cause.
Have no doubt Windsor has the goods on Abbott.
Windsor should hold onto to it till the next time Abbott shoots his mouth off to his fawning mates in the media and calls Windsor a liar.
Then go bang.
*MOAR*!!
Turning in for the night. David Donovan’s latest IA installment is already uploaded: Ashbygate 1: How Ashby met Slipper
Enjoy. 👿
Suspect something like this is true.
Tony Windsor was quite specific in some of his comments on :monkey: behavior during the 17 days of negotiation. Now, either Windsor is lying in which case he has deliberately mislead parliament, or :monkey: is telling porkies to the papers.
Now if Windsor is misleading parliament, you would expect the Noalition to be all over it to try and get him turfed for a while wouldn’t you??
[for 14 years from 1996 to 2010 they pressed for recognition of Long Tan, the libs ignored them again, labor didn’t.]
Absolutely correct. Although Labor opposed the Vietnam War, it has been this government that has given the Long Tan veterans the recognition they deserved. We have also set up the inquiry into retrospective VCs, after 40 years of agitation by RAN veterans. I expect it won’t award any VCs, but at least the veterans have been given a hearing.
http://vimeo.com/12970217
[ShowsOn
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 10:13 pm | Permalink
WHY IS SHOPPING FOR A NOTEBOOK COMPUTER SO HARD!?
All I want is something capable of being used to start arguments on Poll Bludger.
I simply DON’T NEED things like BLUE TOOTH TECHNOLOGY because I can’t see how that will help me argue with people on Poll Bludger?]
What you need to be able to argue with people on PB you wont be able to buy from an Apple store…
Hehe 🙂 no offence!