Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.

Preselection snippets:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.

• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.

• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.

• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.

• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,198 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Reposted from old thread

    The Coalition have lost their core policy – which was “Let’s go back to the way Howard did it”. The debate has shifted to an entirely different level.

    Morrison’s strange idea of “regional deterrence” is now total trash. What did it mean – Keep them out of all of South East Asia?

    It seems as if Morrison might have realised this – they will try to declare victory and move on I think. I’d say they’ll even pass the migration act amendment as suggested and hint that they’ll vote in parliament against Malaysia being included (they won’t when it comes to the crunch, of course).

    Although the initial impression may be that the coalition have “won”, I think that in the medium term they won’t – because they will have lost the opportunity to beat the government around the head.

  4. William

    You may have missed it but, if so, you might want to update your snippets with a note that Mr Joyce has indicated that he will seek pre-selection for Maranoa.

  6. Morrison now claiming victory. Utter crap.

    Not sure how he can claim the Report supports ‘Turning Back Boats’.

  7. and..surprise surprise..the odious Mr Morrison goes in for the kill.
    Winners are grinners.
    He can barely contain himself.

  10. it may be utter crap Gorgeous ..it really doesn’t matter.
    All the punters will get from this is the coalition were right all along.

  15. Finns

    The IOC said after Sydney that they wouldn’t be making any “best ever” games comments so we’ll never know.

    From the stuff I’ve read, most commentators are saying these were the best games.

  16. reposting:

    The disallowance provision for all regional agreements is one of the panels better recommendations.

    They have basically said that Morrison’s amendment to restrict processing to UNHCR signatories is no good as it excludes pretty much all of the region. But, Oakie’s bill should require any agreement to be put to the Parliament for ratification before being enacted. A fair dinkum opposition would support that, so you know Abbott won’t.

    The Greens have been told to wake the fuck up. Paris especially should have been very persuasive for any persuadable Greens. Onshore processing is dead. Get used to the idea, because one way or another it’s coming. The Greens have the opportunity to work with the Government to see that it occurs in the most appropriate way possible or work with Abbott. They might not like having it pointed out to them, but their intransigence is music to Abbott’s ears. Naturally they’ll choose intransigence.

    Shame really. It seems to be a good effort. Certainly not as good for the government’s position as I’d expected. A couple of shit sandwiches for Bowen and Gillard to smile as they chew on, but no worse for that. The Government will endorse the report in full, and seek to implement it, but unless the Greens and Coalition start feeling political heat coming their way they’ll stymie any progress. End result will probably be the Government getting Nauru and Manus up and Morrison and Abbott hooting like gibbons about how they forced a backdown. If that gets the issue out of the media by say Christmas it will probably be ok for Gillard.

  17. Meguire
    I get that but those subtleties are lost in Punterville.
    Refos are off to Nauru. End of story. That’s what that nice Mr Abbott has been saying all along. Think I’ll stay out of supermarkets for a while.

  20. A question regarding Essential Research.

    Is their method requiring them to ask the same pool of people about their voting intentions week after week essentially flawed? Might not using the same pool (which has probably minimised the sometimes largish swings experienced by Newspoll and Nielsen) also result in a stagnant pool that produces highly unreliable results.

  22. [I have to say thus again, I cannot believe the panel recommended using Nauru.
    I just can’t.]

    Rosemour, shorter Rob Oakshott: dont got hangup about location. It’s all about Regional Processing & Bali Framework

  26. [All the punters will get from this is the coalition were right all along.]

    Don’t agree. Amidst all the hyperbole the government have shown poise and conciliation. The recalcitrance of the opposition to stonewall everything even to the point of lives lost is becoming clearer by the minute. Australians might be slow but we get there eventually.

  27. [The IOC said after Sydney that they wouldn’t be making any “best ever” games comments so we’ll never know.]

    Diog, we know because IOC knows there will never ever be another one like #Sydney2000

    BTW: Using John Lennon video & Imagine song was pathetic. Imagine was all about NO countries & nationalism whereas the Olympic is all about countries & nationalism

  28. [I have to say thus again, I cannot believe the panel recommended using Nauru.
    I just can’t.]

    The esteemed committee can claim as often as they like that they have not reach a political solution to the problem but IMO they have done just that. This is a face saver to both majors and the party that is smarter will adopt it completely.

  29. [Marian Rumens ‏@mrumens
    What a nasty piece of work #ScottMorrison is. “Angus Houston has endorced all of our policy on refugees” and what a liar #auspol ]

  31. morrison saying the committee red lighted malaysia thats not the impression i got.

    and soon as i heard something about turning back boats in another context i thought

    mm morrison will jump on this,.

    lets get it over except the committees report. just get out of the liberal agenda

    yes i was a enrolled to poll at ess., for some time i would of got sent emails about 4 times about politics in that time, along with other product questions in between.

  33. An image for George to conjour ? To the tune of Cher’s “IF I Could Turn Back Time” and with the same wardrobe Morrison singing ” I can turn back boats” .

  34. memo to Morriscum & Abbottard: Turn back boats can be done. No it cant. Because Indonesia will NEVER agree to it and said so 4x already

  35. [I have to say thus again, I cannot believe the panel recommended using Nauru. I just can’t.]

    Yeah well it just goes to show how far you are out from the opinions of independant experts.

    Basically you know ZIP…

  36. Finns

    I didn’t watch the Opening or Closing Ceremony, but I gather the Opening one was very well received; the Closing ceremony not so much (in the words of Borat).

  41. GD

    [Morrison lying again. Says Houston says ‘Turning Back Boats’ can be done. Where?]

    The report says turning back the boats has merit if there is a bilateral agreement, ie if Indonesia say yes which they haven’t so far.

    Looks like Nauru gets re-opened and the Coalition get to say “We told you so years ago.”

  43. Here is the recommendation on turning back the boats:

    [The Panel notes that the conditions necessary for effective, lawful and safe turnback
    of irregular vessels carrying asylum seekers to Australia are not currently met, but
    that this situation could change in the future, in particular if appropriate regional and bilateral arrangements are in place]

    This is not, IMHO, consistent with what Mr Morrisson was saying in his presser.

  44. The Finnigans

    [Poroti, with the almost naked Cher sitting on that 20in gun?]
    That’s the one. Except for Morrison it would be on one of our patrol boat’s smaller guns. Definitely with the same wardrobe 🙂

  45. there are some great posts on the previous thread just a shame Mr bowe chose to bother with essentional could of left the thread as it was as now the
    essence of the story is lost on the other thread

  48. [Looks like Nauru gets re-opened and the Coalition get to say “We told you so years ago.”]

    I was under the impression the coalition voted to end processing on Nauru.

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