This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
[ He fell because everyone decided he was an intolerable prick and an incompetent PM.]
Honest question (really): what does the caucus really think about Gillard?
swamprat @ 6897
You are clueless on the subject.
What made me support the Labor Right for some time was they resisted the Victorian ‘Troglodyte Left’, run by Bill Hartley and George Crawford, who had successfully kept Labor out of office for many years. In that at least, the Right was a force for good.
Oh, if i get a $200 donation from a bludger i will change my avitar to Julia Gillard until the next election.
This is the bit bemused where you normally throw your tanty 🙂
rummel @ 6903
Is that a disincentive?
Psephos @
[So you can’t substantiate your previous comment. I thought not. Another ignorant dipstick pretending to be an expert on the internal affairs of the ALP, about which you in fact know nothing.]
Not sure what you mean. i do not claim to know anything much about the internal affairs of the ALP and have never pretended to be an expert. When I talk about the “Rightists” in the Labor Party I am not referring to specific factions. I mean who can keep track of that.
spur212:
You might find it hilarious, but you can’t run a Ruddstoration pitch without embracing Labor’s Right faction.
Chipping others because we are supportive of Gillard’s leadership as some kind of tacit cheersquadding for the factions is illogical when you consider that any leader of the ALP needs those same factions’ backing. I do hope you can understand this.
[bemused
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 9:38 pm | Permalink
rummel @ 6903
Is that a disincentive?]
it may be taken as so…. or any Avitar the donator wishes
dave @ 6904
Kindly rummage through all your bookmarks and show me where I have thrown a tanty.
I obviously disagree with Psephos on this to some extent but it is hardly going to cause a tanty.
So Rudd had a bad temper at times and a few precious petals couldn’t cope. Big deal!
[This is the bit bemused where you normally throw your tanty]
Nice pick up dave. If I was still reading bemused’s deluded rantings I’d have picked it up myself.
What a snivelling sycophant of Abbott-like proportions. 😆
[It is sadly ironic that the Bligh Government in Qld began its loss of support by privatising part of QR, so in revenge the people elect a rampant thatcherite government!!]
LOL! Bligh was from the Left mate!
confessions @ 6910
*YAWN*
More cretinous ravings.
[He fell because everyone decided he was an intolerable prick and an incompetent PM.]
Its just shocking.
Thankfully Australia has never previously and will likely never again have a Prime Minister who is ambitious, arrogant and with a bad temper!
Bemused @ 6902
Obviously using “right” was a mistake. It has a sacred meaning internal to the ALP. Like in the “Life of Brian” with all the Liberation Fronts for Palistine!!!
OK when i talk about the “rightists” in the ALP I am not referring to all the different groups of bastardry/factions/mafia/ that may exist. I am talking about ideology. Sorry if I mislead.
dave
On another matter, were you and Schnappi in Vietnam?
rummel
Do you have twitter , reason I ask is you can DM me to give an address to make out a cheque for the 2 hundred dollars ,who to and where to send,
Not intrested in avatar.
Too much info wanted for the donation and no longer give out that kind of info to anyone.
My only sister died from it at only 5 years of age.
I only have an interest in politics for its ideas and the possibility of achieving a little justice in the world. Quaint, I know.
[Honest question (really): what does the caucus really think about Gillard?]
I think the majority view (outside the Kevinsta caucus, that is) is that she has made some serious mistakes, but that she (a) is competent, in the sense that her office actually transacts business and makes decisions (b) is approachable and consultative, (c) has a good policy brain, (d) has a genuine commitment to Labor values, and (e) is tough as nails. The view also is that her worst mistakes (East Timor processing centre, “people’s assembly”, “no carbon tax”, “real Julia”) were all fairly early on and were at least in part foisted on her by others. Now that she is in charge, the view is that she has got better as the term has gone on. Her dealings with the crossbench have been masterful. Her more aggressive approach in QT and with the reptiles of the press is also very welcome in Caucus. I think most Caucus members are now hopeful that things will improve in the next 12 months. I’m not sure I agree, but MPs tend to try to see the bright side because their own careers depend on it.
[The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike
@awelder @Drag0nista press has certainly let Abbott get away with it. But this week Labor has. So it’s funny Cassidy NOW brings up Abbott. ]
[Andrew Elder @awelder
@Piping_Shrike Abbott is deflating before their eyes, tentatively exploring idea that Labor are back @Drag0nista ]
A PBer made a similar observation this morning, that the govt’s performance the last 2 weeks gave him/her the first sense in 2 years that the govt will be re-elected.
swamprat @ 6914
Let me quote you @ 6906 “i do not claim to know anything much about the internal affairs of the ALP and have never pretended to be an expert.”
Yes. And it shows.
Done. These are the pertinent bits as you have said to many here –
We were Soldiers.
Shows ON
[LOL! Bligh was from the Left mate!]
Like Gillard?
You seem so unable to think about things you confuse your sub-party labels with actuality. Your philosophical error is called “nominalism”, I think. Mait 🙂
bemused
Harry Smith, became my platoon commander in Malaya, 1955/1957 , he came as a replacement.,used to take some of us to his married quarters for a feed and a beer,lovely wife.
When we were in Penang
Also meant to say, I was not in Vietnam.
Confessions
I’ve got no problem with the ALP Right righting a massive percieved wrong in the electorate
My amusement comes from the anger of some here at the Right yet the support of Gillard
Slipper has pulled charges against Ashby, ordered to pay costs and promised not allege anything else unlawful.
WINNING
[OK when i talk about the “rightists” in the ALP I am not referring to all the different groups of bastardry/factions/mafia/ that may exist. I am talking about ideology. Sorry if I mislead.]
In that case you are talking about the entire ALP, because the last genuine socialist in the ALP Caucus was Tom Uren, who retired 22 years ago. So stop whining, and go and join the Communist Party, if you can find it.
dave @ 6921
A poor effort indeed if that is the best you can come up with.
@ 6922
Did you go to Vietnam?
bemused
[swamprat @ 6914
Let me quote you @ 6906 “i do not claim to know anything much about the internal affairs of the ALP and have never pretended to be an expert.”
Yes. And it shows.]
so what? Do you mean I have no right to an opinion or comment because I have no interest in arcane sub-cells in the tiny group that call themselves ALP?
[Like Gillard?
You seem so unable to think about things you confuse your sub-party labels with actuality. Your philosophical error is called “nominalism”, I think. Mait ]
BULLSHIT!
[Schnappi
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 9:45 pm | Permalink
rummel
Do you have twitter , reason I ask is you can DM me to give an address to make out a cheque for the 2 hundred dollars ,who to and where to send,]
Thats fantastic Schnappi.
I am more then happy to get WB to send you my e-mail or you can go to the link i provided which has payment options of;
Credit Card
Cash, Cheque or BPAY
PayPal
Thanks Psephos, very interesting! Nice to see an ALP member admit to her “serious mistakes”. That is quite rare here!
Not impossible she could come back from the political dead (triple bypass etc etc). However, I am with you, doubt it is going to happen.
[Her more aggressive approach in QT and with the reptiles of the press is also very welcome in Caucus.]
As we’ve constantly remarked here for the past 2 years, Gillard doesn’t need the reptiles in the press gallery in order to remain Prime Minister.
One of the best things about Gillard’s leadership from my perspective is that she has ditched the Rudd obsession with feeding the 24hr news cycle with daily ‘announceables’.
Psephos
[So stop whining,]
Go back to America. I am an Australian I whinge.
[Slipper has pulled charges against Ashby, ordered to pay costs and promised not allege anything else unlawful.]
Wow, I didn’t realise that Peter Slipper was a police officer who could have people charged with crimes.
Does he work for the QLD police or the federal police? Or is he on a roving commission and can charge people for either state or federal offenses?
Schnappi @ 6924
I have seen him on TV and heard him on radio a few times and he comes across as a thoroughly decent human being.
Your account fits with how I would expect him to be.
He strikes me as a true leader.
[Harry Smith, became my platoon commander in Malaya, 1955/1957 ]
Colonel Harry Smith SG, the hero of Long Tan. It’s a year ago this week since D Company were awarded their UCG by the Governor-General.
bemused
did the advisors course at Canungra, (Third time There) to go to Vietnam, but would not send me , as medically downgraded for hearing loss due to Malaya.
Funny that , as it was years after leaving SAS, but they bought in new medical standards. and actually prevented me from getting a commission, from the rank of WO2.
Psephos @ 6928
There is always one of the 57 different varieties of Trotskyists he could try.
They are keeping the flame burning when not busy attacking each other. 👿
[My amusement comes from the anger of some here at the Right yet the support of Gillard]
We share the same amusement then only in relation to different MPs.
swamprat
[I only have an interest in politics for its ideas and the possibility of achieving a little justice in the world]
In which case, were you in the Labor party and actively involved in policy work, you’d be at least working very closely with the Labor Right, if not actually a member of the faction.
I’ve been told I’m too Green for them (I know, teh irony) but basically, the Right are simply pragmatists – interested in what can actually be achieved, rather than fairy floss ideas that sound good but don’t stand up in the real world.
** disclaimer: proudly non factional since 1994.
Sorry Schnappi.
missed the part about not providing to much information. I will get WB to send you my e-mail. i will cash the cheque and place a $200 donation on the site myself under Schnappi for transparency.
Ok showson – “formally withdrawn allegations”.
Pedantry isn’t my thing but whatever rows your boat.
[Do you mean I have no right to an opinion or comment because I have no interest in arcane sub-cells in the tiny group that call themselves ALP?]
It was you who raised the subject with your “Taliban” comment.
So which one of the 57 varieties of far left sects do you belong to?
Thats all you ever come up with.
When challenged for fact you run run run away.
Those posts above show that.
You dismiss stuff without proof all the time to Victoria and others. So your claims can also be dismissed on the same basis.
Mind you, you’ve sprouted all sorts of crap over the years.
Its all still there.
Looking forward to the case unfolding.
Slipper = WINNING
The press gallery are like a pack of dogs. They bark a lot, but they actually respect a master (or mistress) who hits them with a stick.
rummel
Seem to recall you met TLBD , he has my email address,assume you have his just ask duck for it as could be quicker, but ask wb if not.
Sorry about the double post – must be the DTs