This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
bemused
[It made me do some research, mainly in the base library, where I formed my anti-Vietnam War opinions and woke up to the way the Fibs just saw the military as playthings to be used for political purposes.]
I came from a family where my father was conservative and my mother voted for how he told her. The Vietnam war made me a burning radical to this day for a numng=ber of reasons:
1. It was such an obviously political war, thus people were conscripted to die in Vietnam for the glory of the Liberal Party and their US masters.
2. My cousin was a barrister in Commonwealth Crown Prosecutions at the time and had to prosecute draft “dodgers” but they routinely got directions from Canberra NOT to prosecute Lib/Country Party sons for “family” reasons.
Psephos @6918:
I would have to say it looks a mountain to climb. The thing that keeps me thinking the polls will tighten is that the decks are cleared. What’s tended to happen over the past year or so is that any gains made by the ALP were negated shortly after because of something the Coalition were able to exploit. Anyone here could come with half a dozen topics without effort. And Ruddstoration! was the go-to whenever things went quiet.
I just can’t see what the go-to topic can be the next time the ALP get a lift. AS and Carbon Tax are the only two on the table, and the Coalition are already going at them with all they have. AS is largely neutralised seeing as the Coalition have claimed ownership of it (whether that’s accurate or not).
Being hopeless doesn’t necessarily work against an opposition. But the current opposition are the most talentless I can recall. They can do politics ok, but seeing as all that consists of is sticking to a script, repeating slogans and predicting disaster, I don’t think that’s much of a recommendation for them. I can’t recall any of them talking sense on any policy topic. Some of them have exhibited rank incompetence, their “not a tech head” leader prime among them.
It’s one reason why I think that, when the public do turn on them, it will be savage and swift. The big question is: when will that happen? It may not be until after the election.
Of course these days, sadly, it’s the Liberal and Labor Party and their USA Masters.
Rummel,
Done. I’ve sent William B a copy of the receipt. I did this for your friend, and in honour of the memory of Schnappi’s sister and Marrickville Mauler’s cousin, because I am unaware of any immediate family/friends who have endured this particular horror.
Soooooo, when do we see the change of avatar?
Craig Paul Roberts in “Counterpunch”
Warns of the danger of a nucleur conflict
__________
Roberts a former Ast. Treasurer in Reagan’s Admin and former Editor of” The Wall Street Journal;” and now a passionate critic of the neo-cons says that what he now calls “the criminal gang in Washington and “:mad Netanyahu” have moved the world nearer to conflict between the US and Russia than at any former time
He says that those who dream of absolute US power are pushing to attack Iran…overthrow Putin and “contain” or in reality encircle China…and with Netanyahu” thirsting”for the opportunity to attack and even Nuke Iran.. we are all endangered
He sees unchecked Israeli power as threatening the world with it’s grip on Washington
An astonishing attack on US policy from a former senior republican in Reagan’s time
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/08/17/stumbling-towards-nuclear-war/
[What you need to be able to argue with people on PB you wont be able to buy from an Apple store…]
I don’t like Macs. I have to use them at work and hate them.
Psephos 6959. Don’t think you should claim Rann as a Labor Right member or adherent. Unaligned over recent years as far as I know. Not sure if ever in the Centre Left.
Dave.
I. Read. All. Your posts , and enjoy them
Have a great weekend
With what ever. U. Intend to do
Psephos @ 6998
It is also worthy of mention that the ALP has been far better in it’s attitude to the Vietnamese who came to Australia and has won their support.
Harry Smith and many others, including me will never get the Medal Awarded by Malaysia.
We were 2 RAR 1955/1957, first troops after WW2 to go to Malaya.
Malaya got their Mederka (Freedom), while we were there.
The medal was awarded if we were there only on the rear party.
All those who died giving Malaya their Merdeka and served in 2RAR did not get the medal, only those units that served after the date got the Medal.
OPT:
Thanks for that link.
[The Gowinta strawberry farm is just minutes away from the strawberry farm of other prominent Beerwah local residents the Roy Family — which encompasses 22 year-old Wyatt Roy, the MP for Longman. Longman is also the former seat of Howard Government front bencher – and Peter Slipper arch nemesis – Mal Brough.]
So PBers were right about the strawberry farm connection, just that we got the wrong strawberry farm.
If Abbott is true to form, he’ll assume that because Windsor hasn’t made it public yet, he won’t; and that that gives Abbott the freedom to deny anything Windsor says. He’ll probably continue to taunt Windsor with it too. If it is released, he’ll quibble over words, say he’s been misrepresented, give his own version of what he meant, call Windsor petty and cheap.
Meanwhile, the dirt unit will be cranked up, searching for something to hold against Windsor.
Well. Rummell may. Be. Mary mckillop, has. Your cauce in. Her. Thoughts
May be as you seem to like to represent her presence
go to the site and leave a prayer request, for the nuns to say a prayer
[Well. Rummell may. Be. Mary mckillop, has. Your cauce in. Her. Thoughts]
Mary McKillip was a fraud.
[If Abbott is true to form, he’ll assume that because Windsor hasn’t made it public yet, he won’t; and that that gives Abbott the freedom to deny anything Windsor says. He’ll probably continue to taunt Windsor with it too. ]
Could it be that Windsor is keeping it for a time when it would do max damage, i.e. in the first week of an election campaign?
SO
[I don’t like Macs. I have to use them at work and hate them.]
I had a date lined up for you but she’s not interested after seeing that.
BTW Has there been a crappy poll for the ALP I missed. How come all the snark on PB tonight.
Rummel
Please dont. Change. To Julia
that. Would. Be. Very. Hypocritical
Why. Not put a picture of your self
Wny. Do. Men feel. They need a handle
anyway
Wakefield
Rann was definitely unaligned.
ShowsOn @ 7006
What don’t you like about Macs? I am thinking of getting one. I am fed up with Windoze.
Fiona, well done! saw yours on the donation site too. I’m still not doing the haircut though, leaving that to Rummel.
fiona
[Rummel,
Done. I’ve sent William B a copy of the receipt. I did this for your friend, and in honour of the memory of Schnappi’s sister and Marrickville Mauler’s cousin, because I am unaware of any immediate family/friends who have endured this particular horror.
Soooooo, when do we see the change of avatar?]
Thank you for your kind mention regarding my sister.
Pussy Riot found guilty in Russia. Looking at a few years in the slammer for anti-Putin dissent.
Aguirre,
[It’s one reason why I think that, when the public do turn on them, it will be savage and swift. The big question is: when will that happen? It may not be until after the election.]
As The Right Hon Julia Gillard PM said somewhere a while ago, this was always going to be a marathon.
And after last week’s performance in London, ain’t she right!
I agree with everyone who has said that it’s going to be a stiff climb.
On the other hand, it’s no longer (not that it ever was, IMO) a lay-down misere for the Opps.
So, onward and upward, mes amis – excelsior!
Schnappi, I think you’re referring to the Pingat Jasa Malaysia, which is the medal awarded by Malaysia to members of the Commonwealth forces who served in the Malayan Emergency from 1957 to 1966. About 12,000 Australians are eligible for it. Are you saying your unit was in Malaya before that date and therefore are not eligible for it? That does seem strange. Of course Australia can’t tell Malaysia how to award their medals. But if you write to Senator Feeney, Parliamentary Secretary for Defence, and explain the situation, he may be able to get you an explanation for why the Malaysians have set that date for eligibility.
[What don’t you like about Macs? I am thinking of getting one. I am fed up with Windoze.]
I’ve just used PCs for much longer so a lot of thinks I need to do I know how to do on a PC but don’t know how to do on a Mac.
And there are some things that Macs just don’t support, e.g. Blu-ray.
Was back in Australia last month for the first time in many years. Amazed at how boat AS is such a big issue (where i am we probably have more people crossing the border without a visa per week as Aus gets boat people per annum) and struck by how many people hate Julia Gilliard personally with a passion – not sure if its inauthenticity or what really (maybe a macrocosm of what PBs here generaly feel abt Christopher Pyne!).
Agree that this current parliament has in substance accomplished much that will endure provided that the Coalition dont win the senate, and that on policy grounds the ALP should travel better over the next 12 months. But there is something to be said for the “baseball bat” factor, and just seems to me that Julia has a huge mark on her back.
My sense is that Aussies had no major love for Fraser or Howard, but when they have it in for someone (Whitlam, Keating) then they are toast. The only possible excpetion is when the oppo leader scares them even more (Hewson, Latham) – and this is the best hope for the ALP with Tone. Replace him with even Hockey, and its hard to see Julia getting home. Mind you, a modest defeat seems much better to me than a ‘better devil’ victory followed by a generational slaughter (Keating, Keneally, Bligh)… am sure most here would have wished Labor had lost those previous elections narrowly than winning them?
ShowsOn @ 7014
They all are.
When is retirement age where you work Shows On?
100?
[Psephos 6959. Don’t think you should claim Rann as a Labor Right member or adherent. Unaligned over recent years as far as I know. Not sure if ever in the Centre Left.]
I recognise that in the inner workings of the ALP this may have some sort of significance. Those interested in this arcane world may see it a a source of science fiction/fantasy in the future. Good luck to you.
But Australia would benefit from a REAL independent AUSTRALIAN labour movement, not introspective and not primarily American.
Possible? Only as much as the Liberals being liberal. i.e. Buckleys
[When is retirement age where you work Shows On?
100?]
whenever I figure out how to use the mac computers.
Howdy Expat!
When is the next visit to Australia?
Wbat donation site?
Well. If. You call setting up. Many. Many schools
For. Australians in. The. Bush,
the first one bulit from old timberaround the area
Any thing else but. Hard work
Your Ignorance is. Astounding
What’s. Your contribution to. Aust.
Psephos
Liberal and labor current ministers know it all, 2RAR was first there, and the date Malaysia gave for qualification, only gave the medal to those who stayed a month longer than we did on the rear party actually got the medal I understand, think I missed out by two weeks.
Point is the battalion that had most deaths got nothing,thing that rankles is the families that had deaths , got nothing, and those when the emergency finished got amedal.
The present parliamentarians were aware and did nothing.
Looks like Schappelle Corby may be coming home.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/corby-sentence-cut-confirmed-20120817-24e0i.html
Laurie Oakea takes a swing at Godwin Grech
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/angus-houston-not-john-howard-for-governor-general/story-fndo1uez-1226452877065
Expat, don’t. Agre e
Your are just feeding the liberals
Joe. Hockey. , expat your joking shows how long you. Have bern. Expat
ShowsOn @ 7025
I have used PCs since 1983 and never used a Mac.
I was not interested in Macs until I got an iPhone and was blown away by it.
Mod Lib, just remind me again… if Tone stays as leader then you will be at least preferencing Labor ahead of the Coaltion, right?
On the US, seems to me that Obi needs to win just one of Ohio, Virginia or Florida and he can’t lose. Odds of this surely pretty good (>70%)?
Mitch Daniels would have beaten him solidly i reckon. I bring this up because i always enjoy Mod Lib’s arguments for being a passionate Obama supporter as well as one of the Coalition in Oz… nothing to do with ideology or policy, just pick a tribe and stick with them.
[ShowsOn
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 11:10 pm | Permalink
If Abbott is true to form, he’ll assume that because Windsor hasn’t made it public yet, he won’t; and that that gives Abbott the freedom to deny anything Windsor says. He’ll probably continue to taunt Windsor with it too.
Could it be that Windsor is keeping it for a time when it would do max damage, i.e. in the first week of an election campaign?
]
Bingo.
He is no dummy. This was done for a reason. He is saying if needed he will pull the trigger.
Psephos
Also should have said 55/57 the battalion left in bulk except rear party 1 month before would have qualified for the medal, apparently the other 23 months did not count
I see mid lib even. Uses a erican words. Like howdy
So mod lib. Ard u an american repub
MM and Schnappi,
This gets a bit awkward, because I don’t give a damn about doing the “charitable” thing as something that one should do.
Hell – I’ve edited this so many times – I could delete it entirely – because any way that I write it could be read as self- serving.
I never intended that: so let me put it like this.
I hope my donation gives hope and life to millions of people like your sister and your cousin.
Bemused. Is they
Spur.
Now when I was an active member of the NSW young lefties we just ASSUMED that at most of the NSW right were in the thrall of the US. Quite a lot of Friday night parties and I feel fairly sure a few good ditties were sung to that effect. There was a young labor newsletter that made some very specific allegations. Nealy had people expelled but it blew over. 🙂
On a more serious note I feel that the views of people like psephos are quite fundamentally different to the views of most left labor people. So much so that I really feel that the two sides are barely compatible.
Now in the 70s, the left and right fought one another but there was a common set of core values. I am not sure they exist any more. Perhaps the event s of 1975 united us all.
mysay, on the continuum of impressiveness-unimpressiveness ranging from (at election time) Hawke/Rudd thru to Latham/Debnam… where would you plot Hockey vs Abbott? Not saying i think Hockey is particularly impressive, but he’s good enough (a la Howard 96, or O’Farrell) to probably administer a drubbing. Tone is more of a gamble.
if you dont agree that Julia is way behind and not especially liked, then i wonder which country you live in?
[Expat Follower
Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 at 11:27 pm | Permalink
Mod Lib, just remind me again… if Tone stays as leader then you will be at least preferencing Labor ahead of the Coaltion, right?]
Tone is not the best thing for Australia, even Gillard would be better, so yes, its ALP above LNP if it is Tony vs. anyone in the current ALP. However, I reserve the right to cast an invalid vote too as Plan B if Gillard becomes even more hopeless than she has been to date.
[On the US, seems to me that Obi needs to win just one of Ohio, Virginia or Florida and he can’t lose. Odds of this surely pretty good (>70%)?]
Yep
[Mitch Daniels would have beaten him solidly i reckon. I bring this up because i always enjoy Mod Lib’s arguments for being a passionate Obama supporter as well as one of the Coalition in Oz… nothing to do with ideology or policy, just pick a tribe and stick with them.]
HEY, no fair!
The Democrats are clearly the best choice in the USA. The Republicans being crazy for example.
The Liberal party are a shade better than the ALP in Australia- largely on economic matters. I don’t support many of their social policy positions, but, then again, the ALP has “lurched to the right” on these things as well so same same…
[The present parliamentarians were aware and did nothing.]
That’s a very sweeping statement. Who exactly have you contacted about this? Have you written to Senator Feeney? He is in charge of this area at present. As I said, since it’s not an Australian medal it may be that Australia can’t do anything about it, but it doesn’t hurt to ask.
Bemused. Who. Is they