Seat of the week: Petrie

Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.

The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.

A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,470 comments on “Seat of the week: Petrie”

Comments Page 27 of 30
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  7. Guys,

    As one who did actually vote for Kevin Rudd not by proxy, but as my local member and felt disappointed by his performance as PM I want to say this, let us leave the cult of personality up to the Liberals to fight out, for those who feel Kevin was hardly done by or that Julia doesn’t deserve to be leader of the ALP, unless we unite under a common cause we are not going to win the next election as the Libs are feeding off us.

    I thought we are all on the same side, the ALP.

  8. There are only four groups of people who want Kevin Rudd back as PM;

    1) Liberal and National Party supporters,

    2) Selfish bastards (if any) in the Labor Party with a vendetta against the PM for their own dispicable interests ahead of the interests of the Party,

    3) Bludgers here who suffer from attention deficit disorder, and

    4) Really dumb Labor Bludgers with minute analytical skills.

  9. confessions

    IMHO, balance is everything. I love a good steak. I love old growth forest. I love regenerating the river bank. I appreciate sharing our fortunate bounty with visiting fishers. Over the years I have enjoyed meeting and sharing yarns with many of our guests. I take the opportunity to sell some small messages about ecology, enjoyment of nature, the benefits of regeneration and the benefits of well-managed production farming… and where the good fish are waiting…

  10. [As soon as anyone on this site gives a contrary opinion to her (particularly the leadership issue) confessions goes for the jugular full of abuse and fury!!]

    Go back through this morning’s leadershit stuff and see just who it was going “for the jugular full of abuse and fury!!”.

  13. [What would you have me do?]

    Listen to Tony Abbott speaking for 12 minutes. Any more is cruel and unusual punishment. 😆

  16. CM
    Status quo would be my guess, more or less. It probably depends on getting the vote out in the regional and remote areas. OTOH, I imagine that all the resource developments might bring an influx of downsouthers who are on the right.

  19. Augustus @ 1307

    I thought we are all on the same side, the ALP.

    Agree with that but the issue here is that some have their support wedded to who is leader. I don’t.

    My support for the ALP is not conditional on who is leader.

    That said, I obviously have opinions on who is best able to lead the ALP to electoral success and would like to see them lead.

    But when it comes to campaigning and working for the ALP, I will do the sam regardless of who is leader.

  22. Centre

    No one really give a stuff if Rudd comes back or not.

    Except the extra 700k to 1 mil people who would vote ALP if he was leader again.

  23. [Status quo would be my guess, more or less. It probably depends on getting the vote out in the regional and remote areas. OTOH, I imagine that all the resource developments might bring an influx of downsouthers who are on the right.]

    Thank you.

    Yeah, it’s really hard to gauge NT politics. Even the pendulum is hard to follow because, even though high swings are required, it’s a case of just a few hundred people changing their votes constitutes a high swing.

  26. bemused @ 1319

    “But when it comes to campaigning and working for the ALP, I will do the sam regardless of who is leader.”

    Then let’s lead by example

  30. Augustus,

    [… let us leave the cult of personality up to the Liberals to fight out, for those who feel Kevin was hardly done by or that Julia doesn’t deserve to be leader of the ALP, unless we unite under a common cause we are not going to win the next election as the Libs are feeding off us.]

    Ave Caesar.

    Fellow PBers, I was speaking to me old mum a couple of hours ago. Now, I’ve heard her in full flight on the subject of John Howard, in even fuller flight about Tony Abbott, but even I was amazed by her colourful language this evening with (total lack of respect) to Campbell Newman.

    Attagirl!

  31. Augustus @ 1326

    Then let’s lead by example

    Meaning?

    I will defend our former Prime Minister who regularly has his reputation traduced on this site.

    I will also state that I believe he is the person best equipped to lead the ALP to an election victory in 2013.

    I also respect the abilities of Julia Gillard and have no reason to denigrate her.

  32. Centre , i noticed b/g post
    Will u remind himm plse . The ind. Care,, all bets off, they / he conviently forgets that one
    So may be add that to your list

  33. Bluegreen

    No, 700k to 1 million people are really starting to appreciate the strength and achievements recorded by the Gillard/Labor government.

    There are STACKS of them, the NDIS being the latest. Have a look at the long faces on that lightweight Van Onselen and big mouth Kelly on Liberal Agenda today. Sweet!

    But most of all, do you know what the 700k to 1 mil voters are really going to like?

    Stability and Confidence in the government.

    But we will get lots of leadershit yet, the Monkey :mrgreen: will get his turn on the crease 😎

    You enjoy 😉

  34. Norm Smith- coached Melbourne to six flags and made the finals 10 years in a row. from Wikipedia

    [From 1964 tension began to build between Smith and several influential figures at Melbourne… Another factor was Smith’s sometimes acid tongue, which he sometimes turned on committeemen he felt were interfering in his domain. This facet of the Smith personality put him in a difficult situation when he was sued by an umpire for defamation. In defending the action, Smith found no support from the men running his club.

    Finally, the situation exploded on the Friday night before the round 13, 1965 match with North Melbourne. A courier delivered a termination notice to Smith at his home. When the news leaked to the media, it created a sensation, arguably the most dramatic news story in Australian football history…The Demons wouldn’t make the finals again until 1987, and have not won a premiership since the dismissal, which is sometimes superstitiously attributed to the Curse of Norm Smith.]

    Are the ALP looking forward to the Curse of Kevin Rudd?

    BTW I just copywrited the Norm Smith – Kevin Rudd analogy.

  35. Boerwar:

    Yes, balance is important, but there’s a lot of old growth forest around me, including on my own property.

    Other locals with old growth forest on their properties choose to either preserve it as is, grow dope in it (which I’m assuming because it is harvested each year has no invasive qualities??), or cuts it down stealthily unbeknown to the Shire.

    I think it’s important to preserve what little original pockets of forest we have left. Maybe one day 100 years from now, someone will appreciate what I and my neighbours did, and will derive genuine benefit from it. But in the meantime while it rengenerates, it’s people off!!

  36. my say

    Of course.

    The media and the Liberal Party would be beside themselves with joy if Rudd was reinstated.

    They, including Bluegreen here, would be demanding an early election for Labor not keeping its word to the Indies.

    Bluegreen can pull his other one.

  37. Centre it all depends on the where the NSW Right goes and to a lesser extent to Victorian Right.

    I suspect she’ll stay on given all things being equal but not if Labor’s PV stays below 30% for the year.

  39. Glen, you know that Howard’s polls were terrible in 2007.

    You do remember when Howard recorded a Newspoll of 58/42 against him and he panicked and commissioned Downer to talk to his caucus of whether leadershit was appropriate.

    Hell, that was TWO (2) weeks before the start of the official election campaign.

    But there was one great big difference between the opposition leader of then and today?

    Then, one was popular and today, one is NOT :mrgreen:

  40. [I’m copying this for those who might understand the reference by Latika. I’m assuming she’s mocking?

    Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Lulz! Wyatt Roy is so Prince Joffrey. ]

    It is not a kind reference lizzie, and is quite biting. Joffrey from the king of thrones book series is not a likeable person, self interested, self absorbed, future king.

  41. [I suspect she’ll stay on given all things being equal but not if Labor’s PV stays below 30% for the year.]

    That would be a shame IMO if Labor changed leaders *yet again!*

    At what point does the party stand up and say it actually stands for something? It has to defend its record in govt at the very least, and this becomes increasingly difficult if it’s constantly changing leaders in government.

    The other problem is that the polls show an election held now would see a coalition govt, so it’s in the best interests of the ALP to govern for as long as possible. Yet, the one thing which makes an early election more likely is a leadership change. It’s the ultimate SNAFU.

    A leadership change makes no sense, either in the longer term or the short term. The best electoral defence is unity and common defence of the govt’s achievements.

  43. Speaking of that Newspoll back in 2007, what about when Downer got back to Howie and said the Party should switch to Costello 😆

    Cossie prepared his acceptance speech and was ready to go, poor bastard. 😆

    😆

  44. Centre

    I concede your point. You are saying that even being so unpopular Howard still reduced the deficit by 6 points during the election campaign.

    That and that Kevin was popular as OL. That’s all true.

    What I will say is that the public had made its mind up before election day in 2007. Howard was behind for about a year prior to the election. He was undid by going too far on one piece of legislation that he couldn’t shake. Does this remind you at all of J Gillard and the Carbon Tax? It does to me…

    Do i think the Libs will win 58/42…no that’s just stupid.
    53/47 more likely but that’s still a pumping.

  45. Centre

    Both Bligh AND Kenneally did worse than the horrific polling that they had for several years prior to the election.

  46. Enjoying your stuff, Centre. And you 2 Confessions. My Say, my late, great mother taught me that th’e biggest insult that you can give someone is to ignore them. Boofhead, consider yourself ignored

  49. castle @ 1340

    We should make a note of this “opinion” of Latika’s, so that when she is nearly as old as Ms Grattan and Roy is the PM, we can let him know what she really thinks of him 😀

  50. Keneally had lead in her saddle like no political leader has endured before – a score or more of her colleagues jumping ship, an unenthused PM, referrals to ICAC, an iffy proroguing etc

    Comparing anything with the plight of NSW ALP pre 2011 election is fraught.

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