Seat of the week: Petrie

Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.

The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.

A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,470 comments on “Seat of the week: Petrie”

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  1. Puffy

    I didn’t vote for him. I was peeved that he dumped all his gambling legislation on FF and his running mate Bressington is a complete idiot which doesn’t say much for his judgement.

  2. X votes tend to go to third parties before they go to majors. While it’s possible that an anti-Green backlash could cause more of X’s prefs to go to majors before the Greens.

    Another possible scenario is X’s preferences getting Family First over the line.

    However, at this point it’s just wild guess work at best. There is at least a year before Senate polling would be relevant.

  3. [I didn’t vote for him. I was peeved that he dumped all his gambling legislation on FF and his running mate Bressington is a complete idiot which doesn’t say much for his judgement.]

    Oh she and his replacement will be gone in 2014. By a Lib and either another independent who stands out (like D4D did in 2010) or a Lab/Lib (depending on which party polls better)

  4. FB,

    “Visionary” is comparative: Whitlam, yes, Curtin and Chifley, yes. Menzies? Yes with respect to tertiary education.

    Then the liberal nonentities to 1972 (with the possible exception of Gorton regarding censorship): No.

    Fraser, in retrospect, yes about whaling, sand-mining, uranium mining, and the beginnings of sense regarding Aboriginal land rights.

    Hawke/Keating did some seriously sensible and visionary things regarding our economic structure.

    Howard? Not even the gun buy-back, because it wasn’t directed properly.

    Apologies if I have omitted a visionary reform here or there.

  5. Xenophon split his preferences between the Greens and Family First. Once you push Xenophon up to 18%, which is a fair way short of what he managed at the 2006 state election, you get conceivable scenarios where he, the Greens and Family First all win seats – with two for the Liberals and one for Labor.

  6. I should have qualified my observations, FB, with the caveat that my understanding of visionary is something that works to the benefit of the majority of Australians and actually gets done.

    Unachievable visions may be delightfully pure, but they have that flaw: they don’t happen.

  7. WB

    Any chance X could get two? There is lots of speculation about him having a high profile running mate. NSDs name comes up often although I think she has ruled it out.

  8. [Xenophon split his preferences between the Greens and Family First. Once you push Xenophon up to 18%, which is a fair way short of what he managed at the 2006 state election, you get conceivable scenarios where he, the Greens and Family First all win seats – with two for the Liberals and one for Labor.]

    That would probably be Wong who’d go too.

    The Farrellistas would be happy.

  9. Wasn’t there once talk of a national No Pokies party? I would think that they could knock a spot off at least in Vic.

  10. Romney More Blunders
    __________________
    On top of his UK nonsense remarks on the Olympics.when in London…..Romney is now in Israel where US visitors…in a frenzy to please their demanding hosts …usually go stark raving mad
    Do the Israelis put something in the coffee !

    Well Romney lives up to his past form…saying he would respect any Israeli attack on Iran and the war that would follow
    As if Netanyahu ever needs any encouragement!!

    http://www.newsday.com/news/world/romney-voices-aggressive-stance-toward-iran-1.3867671

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