Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.
The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.
A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.
US tells Netanyahu of it’s plans for a war with Iran
_______________
So Obama …as many thought…is pretty much in the grip of Netanyahu and The Lobby and it’s endless war mongering
The conseguences for the ME and the larger world are incalulable…given the hostility of Russia and China to any such move.and it’s effect on the Chinese economy as major user of Iranian oil…..and it’s effects on the oil markets…..
…’and where will Australia stand…will Gillard commit to a campaign on Iran…given her usual stance re Obama anything is possible…and her deference to the Israeli lobby is well known also …this after all is woman who went there with Andrew Bolt when Dpt PM…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/us-presented-israel-with-an-iran-strike-plan-newspaper-reports/story-fnd134gw-1226438010311
Thanks for that.
Centre
And when the ALP caucus dumps Gillard you’ll be saying what?
Speaking of crayons, still drawing those little pictures of Tony to adorn your bedroom walls?
Is there a Neilson tonight?
The spectator
Join rosemour at post 1375.
Feeney the Loons can go and get their own voters. Pass the Malaysian Solution or stick to little protest rallys to save a tree somewhere.
Could be a new party at next election,, The Stable Immigration Party, could not field last election, but assume they will next one.
Libs and labor made immigration an issue last election, but seems to have gone off the boil for both.
[Speaking of crayons, still drawing those little pictures of Tony to adorn your bedroom walls?]
Are comments like this really necessary? They are very reminiscent of a certain individual who was banned from this place…
Jake and i apologise to u.
Indeed i understand how u feel but if you dont nhave the time to read every day
U would of missed posts from other loyal members like bh
Who has explained, the difficulties caucas faced,
From what ive read, they feel no different
Ithink caucas are wise, and know more than all of us,
So accepted tbeir decision
Jake there are no messiah only workers and people of good will
Julia i feel, see things that must be done and follows through,
Mr windsor has said, no all bets off, that would mean electio
As i beleive mr windsor mesns what he says
Would u want to see the end of nbn, naids the gonske report go nowhere
I think not
So imaging or dreaming there is a a person who makes people vote for a person, not policy, is a dream,,
This also is not a presedential election, as some would like to think
Jake no one is a m
Rosemour @ 1403
refer to post 1375 take 2.
deblonay
That article has much the same flavour as much of what the MSM publishes on leadershits. If this and that and something else then so and so would need to consider doing something like this or that or the other thing. I would give it the same credibility as the leadershits stuff.
[Rhys Muldoon @rhysam 4h
Mal Brough, the Linda Tripp of Australian politics. #auspol]
View details ·
Roy I did not watch most of the game today.
I will study the replay, like I do with all the games by Wednesday.
I think there needs to be a serious discussion about the implications of an ALP leadership change as telegraphed by the Independents. It seems to have gone right over a few peoples heads.
Victoria,
Rhys Muldoon @rhysam 4h
Mal Brough, the Linda Tripp of Australian politics. #auspol
Does that make James Ashby Australia’s answer to Monica Lewinski?
feeney:
Rudd Labor sustained similar levels of polling and look what happened.
Jake,
Good luck with your studies.
I understand there will be Nielson in the next few days..perhaps even tomorrow
probably little different to the recent ones which seem stuck arounf 43-58…%
[Does that make James Ashby Australia’s answer to Monica Lewinski\
Nah, ashby or doane did not say anything about sex with that man.
Augustus
It would have to I guess
Augustus 1414 ask Pyne-o-Clean. He too claimed no specific knowledge, crafty, weasel words ….
Just like Clinton’s:
During the grand jury testimony Clinton’s responses were carefully worded, and he argued, “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is”, in regards to the truthfulness of his statement that “there is not a sexual relationship, an improper sexual relationship or any other kind of improper relationship”
IMHO
1. The Greens are bonkers but the ALP would be even sillier to preference against them.
2. Julia’s done a great job getting valuable legislation through parliament. but if she can’t lift the Labor vote in the next six months she’ll have to go.
[It seems to have gone right over a few peoples heads.]
It hasn’t gone over mine. O has all but committed to pulling the plug on Labor if it changes leaders again.
vic,
well Monicka did and Tripp took advantage of it, Ashby claimed harrassment and Brough took advantage of it, sounds fair to me, both were intended to bring someone down.
LNP’s new candidate Mal Tripp
The most likely things about the Donilson story are that:
(a) it is deliberate
(b) it is meant as a threat, not as an actual plan about to be implemented
(c) the intention is to increase the pressure on the Iranian Government
(d) a subsidiary intention is to undercut the impact of Mr Romney’s visit to Israel.
TT
Mr Abbott is bonkers. Coalition supporters understand that well enough. So, what are you going to do about it?
Augustus
Precisely
[Good to see The Age editorial arguing the ALP shouldn’t change leaders and noting that despite the polls the Gov has major achievements under its belt.]
And that is what it is about rossmore, major achievements, policies implemented.
I don’t think gough faced this weekly barrage of polling, though he had the ongoing negative press. Funny enough after he left parliament he recieved raptous receptions where he went, one former mp saying they hated you when you were pm and now love you now you are gone, gough retorted that is was never he the electorate had a problem with it was you bastards ( ie the other blokes in the govt).
Gillard gets admiration from people who have met her, either in person or from the community forums where it has been shown she can change peoples opinions. So if she is able to do this where is the disatisfaction coming from.
Why change leaders based on weekly polling when the govt is implementing good policy.
If it is to become the norm to change leaders on polling how long should the new one get, 2 months.
There is about 14 months to the next election, why not trial 7 leadership teams over that time, Rudd/ Bowen, Shorten/ Combet, Roxon/ Wong, Macklin/ Swan or any other combination you can think of and go into the election with the one who has polled best over the 14 months.
As to long term damage, don’t let fear hold you back is the old saying.
But fraser may have only lasted to 1980 if gough and the party had recognised he should have stepped down after 75, hayden as leader in 77 may have got more seats than gough did to win in 80 instead of coming within 3,000 votes of victory. Howard should have been a one termer in 98.
lib and labor all had overwhelming victories in 75/96 and 07 but all came close to being short term or one term govts, it is hard enough to say what is going to happen next year than 6 or 9 years time.
if you want popularity contests and view success as long stays in office then vote liberal, look at the lib govts in vic and nsw now, do nothings looking to the next election.
I do wonder how the good folk of the shire view Brough in the coming election
my say,
No worries. Interesting comments, we’ll just have to wait and see, I guess.
paddy2,
Thanks for that!
Night all.
Castle, my thoughts exactly.
The NSW, QLD and VIC LNP Governments are proving to be a tremendous assets to Federal ALP which over time will start showing thru in the polls.
castle,
“if you want popularity contests and view success as long stays in office then vote liberal, look at the lib govts in vic and nsw now, do nothings looking to the next election.”
As Keating once said when questioned about his drop in popularity over the banana republic comment “Why would I put myself into the political wilderness unless it was for the good of the nation”
I wonder what stories will come out of Brough’s preselection.
Did abbott want him? It appears hockey, mesma and others didn’t.
Did the Qld LNP just say stuff you all, we’ll put up who we want, or did branch stacking just payoff.
dave,
I do wonder whether it is just pining for the fjords when it’s all the old Howard ministers like nothing has happened in the past 5 years.
Carey
George at Poliquant is predicting SHY loses her seat. He says SA will be
Lib 3, Lab 2 and X 1 no matter what the pref deals are.
http://poliquant.com/labor-1-liberal-2-greens-3-the-senate-effect/
Augustus
So many of the libs can taste being back in power and they are shuffling to get the best spot.
Also Brough and others see him as a contender.
Same with the bloke from WA State libs but only so many jobs to go around and they have to win first as well.
But suspect there will be some good stories emerge about Brough.
Then there are the matters he is involved in.
All interesting.
Remember that Brough knows exactly how much Abbot and Pyne knew about Ashby. A significant bargaining chip. They have to back Brough now … If they don’t he will go feral … Good thing is the noose is tightening. I’m enjoying this Ashby thing doing the LNP slowly.
Re State and Federal Govts
_____________
There is a long history of Federal govts and state govts affecting each others popularity or unpopularity
e,g
In 1990 the unpopularity of Cain’s Labor Govt in Vic costs Hawke many seats in a landslide in Vic that wasn’t running in other states…and Hawke survived
Conversely near tthe end of Joh’s reign in QLand the same thing happened to the detriment of the conservatives in Canberra. I think it was 1987 when Howard.then LOTO… suffered from the mad” Joh for PM “campaign
Certainly Newman and BOF could worry many fed public servants and such ..
Big Ted in Vic is no great asset for Abbott either
Labor won with a big swing in WA in 1983 on the eve of the Hawke victory in Canberra …(though Burke the new Premier later went to jail on fraud charges)
Having your mates in power in a state can be a two-edged sword for a federal party
dave, Rossmore
is too early to quote confucius
“may you/we live in interesting times.”
should be is it too early
Pity it can’t all come to a head quicker. It keeps being strung out.
But will get there in due course.
We are already really.
Many tories/ commentators all expected Labor to have fallen over well before now.
Recall – they won’t last 6 months stuff?
Newman is alleged engineer, put him to some useful use.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-29/potential-road-chaos-as-engineers-rush-to-fix-brsbane-road/4162420
Interesting times?
These are fascinating times!
I think that this minority government will, one day, be seen as the best thing to have happened in Australia for a long long time. Similarly, Ms Gillard will be seen as the most visionary PM since Hawke.
Mr Rudd deservedly has the credit for seeing Howard off (with a little help from Maxine), and for being on the alert regarding the GFC (otoh, I could have told him that it was coming in mid-2006).
However, Ms Gillard’s steely courage in the face of more opposition than Mr Whitlam ever faced (and, boy, did he face a lot!) and her negotiating skills are giving all Australians magnificent reforms, not to mention the BISONs.
If my octogenarian mum can see all this, I suspect that many others – especially those with the slightest connexion with and concern for disabled people – will do likewise.
Excellent piece debunking Murdochratic ‘free speech’ troll of Finkelstein.
dave,
As Abbott said “Gillard just won’t roll over”, it must really gnaw at him, but the buddhists say, a lie will circle the planet many times, but the truth will come out.
Schnappi,
CanWont will sack them for incompetence.
[Carey
George at Poliquant is predicting SHY loses her seat. He says SA will be
Lib 3, Lab 2 and X 1 no matter what the pref deals are.
http://poliquant.com/labor-1-liberal-2-greens-3-the-senate-effect/ ]
That assumes a status quo result for Nick Xenophon, but I suspect he might do rather better than that. All you would need to do is give Xenophon an extra 2% at the expense of the Liberals or the “minor right” and his preferences would get the Greens to a quota, assuming he sent them that way (which he more or less did last time).
WB
I thought the same thing. I expect X to increase his vote.
I can’t remember what he did with his prefs last time. Quite a lot of his voters voted below the line anyway.
Dio
I voted below the line and X was high up in my list.
fiona:
[I think that this minority government will, one day, be seen as the best thing to have happened in Australia for a long long time.]
That’s not implausible.
[ Similarly, Ms Gillard will be seen as the most visionary PM since Hawke.]
That seems much less likely, though I wouldn’t actually call Hawke ‘visionary’. Whitlam maybe, but Hawke? Not so much.
I would concede that their vision was paradigmatically similar.