Seat of the week: Petrie

Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.

The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.

A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,470 comments on “Seat of the week: Petrie”

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  2. Glen

    Yes good post.

    But I truly think that the electorate has not made up its mind.

    Also the carbon tax is pewny, it certainly is not the great big new tax that people were told. Voters will see this and compare with all the benefits. Workchoices was a different story.

    For me to fear the current polling, they would need to be franked. And they are not. Abbott is way too unpopular to become PM in my view.

  4. [meher baba
    Posted Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    BB. The idea that Gillard “lied” her way into office is now a truth in the minds of many people I encounter. Perhaps they are wrong: although can you seriously deny that, in the 2010 campaign, Gillard was trying very hard to look like she was promising not to introduce a carbon tax in the next term? Regardless of what weasel words she actually used, that’s what she wanted people to think.

    Otherwise , why wasn’t it a major feature of her campaign?]

    The best retro view can be made by checking this pre-election The Australian piece edited by Kelly and Shanahan
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillards-carbon-price-promise/story-fn59niix-1225907522983

    The report makes clear that she ‘does not rule out’ implementing a carbon price this term (albeit she ruled out a tax, which what she came up with isn’t anyway). She did want to achieve a consensus, knowing that it was political suicide without it. That probably explains also why she flirted with a ‘peoples assembly’ during the campaign.

    It could be inferred that she saw looking to avoid the issue, at least in the immediate future. But the statement was open-ended enough for her to take up the issue. Post-election, ti was clear that Abbott would oppose anything. The Greens and indies made it easier to go ahead by making it a price of support.

    Whatever inference you take … the subsequent program was quite consistent with what she’d outlined to The Australian, and of course consistent with Labor policy at least for the previous five years. It’s only selective use of language that can turn that into a ‘lie’ or even a broken promise. No voter opposed to carbon pricing could possibly have voted Labor.

    The option then was patently to vote coalition.

  5. [Comparing anything with the plight of NSW ALP pre 2011 election is fraught.]

    As it is in Qld. There is no OPV at the federal level, so all those PV speculations federally are meaningless.

  6. Lizzie

    The Prince Joffrey reference is a character in A Game Of Thrones (think of The Sopranos set in Middle Earth).

    Joffrey is a a bad tempered, arrogant, spoilt pr!ck, a product of an incestuous affair. Not that Latika was saying that those are characteristics of young Wyatt of course, but he does bear a similar look. 😉

    BTW, AGOT is well worth watching, Season 1 is available on dvd from all good outlets.

  8. http://www.news.com.au/national/liberals-vow-to-sink-the-slipper-in-if-mp-charlie-lynn-resigns-from-nsw-parliament/story-fndo4bst-1226437548899

    [Liberals vow to sink the slipper in if MP Charlie Lynn resigns from NSW parliament
    Barclay Crawford and Caroline Marcus
    The Sunday Telegraph
    July 29, 2012 12:00AM

    THE knives are already out for Liberal MP Charlie Lynn, with colleagues labelling him “the Peter Slipper of the NSW parliament” and threatening to unleash a dirt file if he follows through with a vow to quit the party and join the crossbenches.

    Mr Lynn, who is in Papua New Guinea where he runs tours of the Kokoda Track, has said he will be handing in his Liberal Party membership as soon as he returns to Australia and sit with the Greens, Shooters and Fishers and Christian Democrats in the NSW Upper House.

    The Vietnam veteran, a member of the Legislative Council for 17 years, is resigning over a decision by the NSW Liberal Party to endorse a number of property developers as candidates to run for Fairfield council in September. ]
    more in the article

  9. Centre:
    when you’re chugging back the shampers celebrating your boy Tony’s big big win next year don’t delude yourself into thinking a few of us here didn’t know what you and your fellow Tory lovers were up to all along…

  10. Not a great look for anyone involved…

    http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/high-flying-mps-race-to-take-last-free-business-class-flights-before-allowance-is-cancelled/story-e6frfmd9-1226437586102

    [High-flying MPs race to take last free business-class flights overseas before allowance is cancelled
    Samantha Maiden The Sunday Telegraph July 29, 2012 12:00AM

    GLOBE-TROTTING MPs are in a dash for cash to spend a round-the-world ticket allowance that has been axed under a new pay rise deal.

    Backbenchers have enjoyed a business-class ticket to travel the world once every parliamentary term, a deal that was axed in March.

    Retiring MPs and those who face the prospect of losing their seats at the next election must now “use it or lose it”.

    ……….

    The Gillard government has confirmed a list of MPs who have sought approval for international travel over winter. It includes: Liberal MP Don Randall (Egypt/Cuba), Labor MP Kevin Rudd (Switzerland, US/Canada), Labor Senator Louise Pratt (US), Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce (US), Liberal MP Tony Smith (US), Labor Senator Anne McEwen (US), Liberal MP Greg Hunt (US), Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young (Indonesia) and Liberal Senator Eric Abetz (Indonesia/Malaysia). ]
    more in the article

  11. Confessions,

    I apologise for attacking you the way I did tonight. It all got fairly personal, I started it, and I’m sorry.

    The reason I did it is fairly simple. It’s the leadership. I’ve concluded that Gillard can’t beat Abbott and see Rudd as the only real option for next year. I don’t think Rudd will replace Gillard and, even if he does, I don’t think he will beat Abbott but I think he will save a fair bit of furniture and that’s very important. I should also say that I much prefer Gillard to Rudd, it’s just that I think people have made up their mind.

    I attacked you because you, like bemused, tend to demonise the other side of this coin as being disloyal, or cultist, or otherwise lacking in some respect. Both sides do it and, for both sides, the claims cut deep because of the emotional investment we all have in, not only the ALP, but avoiding an Abbott government.

    So, when you attack the “Ruddistas” I take it personally. It reduces my passion to the mere follower of a man I would never follow if I didn’t think he could help my cause. It also ignores the fact that I have immense respect and admiration for Julia Gillard – the toughest politician of my generation.

    It’s all a bit silly, really, but if it didn’t mean so much to all of us we wouldn’t be here on this blog fighting about it like we do, I guess.

    Anyway, again, I apologise.

  13. Gary Sparrow
    [Does this remind you at all of J Gillard and the Carbon Tax? It does to me…]

    If this is the sticking point, can labor relentlessly bang on about the partisan 5% goal of soil magic, how much it costs %1300pa without compensation and how no expert supports it. The CP doesn’t exist in isolation.

  17. [Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2h
    @FrogCranky @krONik McIver, Brough’s nemesis, backed James McGrath. Brough won. Abbott happy. McIver not.McGrath understandably not #auspol]

  18. Long time lurker, first time post

    just wanted to say well done to bemused

    with he, and, his minions, Lord Abbott is home and hosed

    well done my quislings

  19. [Craig Emerson MP @CraigEmersonMP 2h
    @LizBuff46 @krONik Wonder how James McGrath feels about being used up by Bruce McIver?
    View conversation]

  21. [It includes: Liberal MP Don Randall (Egypt/Cuba), Labor MP Kevin Rudd (Switzerland, US/Canada), Labor Senator Louise Pratt (US), Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce (US), Liberal MP Tony Smith (US), Labor Senator Anne McEwen (US), Liberal MP Greg Hunt (US), Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young]

    With the exception of SHY and possibly Barnaby, all the has-beens or never heard ofs.

    Interesting.

  22. confessions @ 1355

    True, the NSW and QLD elections were OPV.

    That doesn’t change the likely outcome Federally with preferential voting, surely.

    If the preferential outcome, as per current polling, in NSW and QLD occurred, it would not be a pretty sight.

  23. Carey if Labor don’t preference the Greens in SA she’s no hope + She’s up against Mr X too 😀

    James McGrath will surely get Fairfax?

  25. rosemour

    Yeah you know more than the majority here and the Labor Party caucus of a 71/31 thrashing.

    Stick to crayons and colouring in books.

  26. Glen what do you think the Greens will do if that newly formed commitee recommends the Malaysian Solution.

    If they still oppose it, they MUST be put last by Labor in the Senate.

    R.I.P. Greens 🙂

  27. [Bloody Ray Hadley commentating on the swimming!]

    Nevertheless he has left the NRL call in safe hands. Today, his replacement, on being told that a South Sydney tryscorer was not Nathan Merritt but Dylan Farrell, the comment was wtte that “these Aboriginals all look the same”.

    Classy. That station will be in good hands when Ray and the Dowager finally hang up their microphones. Still, it was nothing that would upset their listeners.

  28. Jake:

    I meant it when I said that bemused’s presence on this blog diminishes its quality. You only have to see the last 30 mins of respectful engagement with actual issues to recognise that. And if you think that’s a one-off, then tune into the dawn patrol to see real engagement.

    To that end, I’d be happy for you to engage with my arguments, which is what I try to do here. There’s a lot of shit which gets posted here, some of which I disagree with, and simply scroll past. You are welcome to do the same with my comments if you choose, and I won’t think the lesser of you for having done so.

    My view on the leadership is that a leadership change would be a gift to the Liberals, as it was last time. Quite simply there are no logical arguments in favour of a leadership change which have been clearly articulated to me.

  29. Seeing Very Young lose her senate seat 🙂 ahhh so good couldn’t have happened to a nicer Senator from the great state of SA!

    I think Ray Hadley’s commentary is suited for the swimming…

  31. [There are only four groups of people who want Kevin Rudd back as PM;

    1) Liberal and National Party supporters,

    2) Selfish bastards (if any) in the Labor Party with a vendetta against the PM for their own dispicable interests ahead of the interests of the Party,

    3) Bludgers here who suffer from attention deficit disorder, and

    4) Really dumb Labor Bludgers with minute analytical skills.]

    5) People who realise Gillard has no chance of obtaining support at the next election and realise Kevin Rudd is only chance for salvation of the ALP electorally and form the current factional hacks.

  32. [Carey if Labor don’t preference the Greens in SA she’s no hope + She’s up against Mr X too]

    Big if, I’m afraid. SA Labor aren’t idiots.

    It’s possible that Xenophon’s spill over preferences could hurt her, if he puts a major or FF first but that’s another big if.

    Xenophon’s support also comes at the expense of a third Liberal, not a Labor/Green, as demonstrated by the result in 2007 (when the Green primary support was much lower).

    While she certainly isn’t invincible, I wouldn’t count it as inevitable that she will lose that seat.

  33. Centre @ 1375

    You are very childish.

    Centre @ 1376

    Oh, I see, put the Greens last in the Senate, and end up with an Abbott majority in the Senate. He would then run riot destroying all the Labor reforms.

    The Greens will need Labor preferences, but Labor will need Greens preferences in a number of seats, given the slaughter which is awaiting us.

  34. The more that I consider OPV, the more I think that its only appropriate place is in multi-member electorates, such as the upper houses of all Australian parliaments (with the exception, obviously, of Queensland).

    In Victoria, we have OPV for the Legislative Council, but you MUST number five preferences (because each region returns five members of the LC).

    To be honest, I think it’s a system that is way better than the “above the line” method used in the Federal Senate and in the Vic LC (as the alternative to OPV) because you don’t end up with ridiculous consequences like Senator Fielding.

    OPV as used in the NSW and Queensland Legislative Assemblies, requires only a “1” – which puts elections so close to “first past the post” as to be ridiculous – as seen by the most recent elections in both jurisdictions.

    For my money, I think that full preferential voting is the way to go for lower houses (until we get multi-member electorates), and Victorian-style OPV for upper houses.

  35. [That doesn’t change the likely outcome Federally with preferential voting, surely.]

    With OPV the primary vote is the main game.

    With preferential voting the 2PP is the main game.

    I can’t recall what the 2PP vote was at the last Qld election, but I’d bet a federal election wouldn’t reach it.

  36. I will, however, add that Liberal preferences may make your prediction a reality. We haven’t seen a Federal election where the Libs preference Labor over the Greens, so you may be right. Who knows? My point is you can’t bank on it.

  38. [We should make a note of this “opinion” of Latika’s, ]

    Joffery never makes it to king lizzie, so don’t think latika is worried.

  39. Confessions I think the QLD 2PP vote was around 64/36. The LNP got just shy of 50% of the primary vote. It won’t be that bad federally I don’t think.

  40. [Quite simply there are no logical arguments in favour of a leadership change which have been clearly articulated to me.]

    Try this logic popular leader = party popular = win election. unpopular leader = party unpopular = lose election. Rudd twice as popular as Gillard. Why. He can communicate with the electorate. Gillard cannot, they have stopped listening.

  41. [n Victoria, we have OPV for the Legislative Council, but you MUST number five preferences]

    Partial OPV? 😀

  42. Centre,
    Every team Souths play lately look like they’ve been run over by a combine harvester. Having said that, a loss might not be that bad and the Gold Coast are going OK. I didn’t see it but apparently there was a nasty trip (Blair on Merritt). Is this the case?

  44. Confessions,

    I’m not going to defend bemused. It just happens that he and I are on the same side of the leadership debate, but that is it. I’ve witnessed his belligerence.

    I promise you, if Julia Gillard can turn things around I will be as happy as anyone. I really do like her a great deal.

    Anyway, I start a new semester of law tomorrow and will be imposing a PB ban on myself to the extent that that is possible.

  45. Good to see The Age editorial arguing the ALP shouldn’t change leaders and noting that despite the polls the Gov has major achievements under its belt.

    Despite all the doomsayers and the poll experts who claim the election is all but decided, I believe the Gov are still firmly in the race.

  46. I confidently predict that the ALP will preference the Greens ahead of the Coalition (perhaps after a few others though, e.g. Sex Party in VIC), in all States, with only the possible exception of NSW. Even then, I doubt it come the actual day.

    Note that the Opposition Leaders in WA & VIC have already ruled out preferencing Libs ahead of The Greens. You can pretty much stop talking about the possibility now I reckon. The rest of the ALP, whilst keen to draw a line on policy, aren’t interested in the NSW Right (and some of the NSW Left) clumsy posturing on the issue of preferences.

    The Libs will put the after the ALP in some or all states however, as it worked well for them as a statement in the Victorian State election.

    I’m tipping though The Greens will keep mentioning the possibility of being “ganged up on” by BOTH major parties for some time yet, as it suits their self-image.

  47. confessions @ 1385

    I agree with the first two sentences.

    The 2PP for the last QLD election was 61/39 LNP. The 2PP Federally for QLD at the moment, based on the current State break-downs, is similar.

    This sort of polling cannot be sustained if Labor is to win.

  49. Jake:

    Best wishes for your impending study and I hope PB doesn’t distract you from your assignments. 🙂

  50. rossmore

    Good to see The Age editorial arguing the ALP shouldn’t change leaders and noting that despite the polls the Gov has major achievements under its belt.

    The repositioning begins. Have they got some early mail on the latest Nielsen poll?

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