Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.

UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.

House preselection news:

Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.

Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher

Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.

Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.

Senate preselection news:

• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.

• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,396 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. I hear they’re projected somewhere above the 140 mark in the House and Abbott will be knifed by Christopher Pyne on Monday.

    In our dreams. 🙂

  2. [5328
    my say

    ……Think he is playing to the crowd that use to be popular re they are selling the farm, ect.

    Think this thinking has disappeared somewhat. Abbotts behind back about 5/10 years with that.]

    Even the Farmers Federation rebuked Abbott today, my say. You’re right about trying to play to the crowd….he is being too smart by half, perhaps. But I think it is deliberate. He is trying to impose an ideological framework over our views of and interactions with China. We should expect to see a lot more of it. Abbott is an ideological warrior and he wants to align this country with the reactionary neo-con right.

  3. I’m having a wonderful evening listening to Youtubes of Auf dem Wasser zu Singen.

    So far, firsts to Elisabeth Schwarzkopf, Lucia Popp, and the recently late and lamented Dietrich Fischer-Dieskau. Also Elisabeth Schumann.

    One quality they shared is rubato – the ability to “rest” on a note, and let the music breathe.

    Bolet had it too, as do all the great jazz musos – and as far as I’m concerned it’s one of the hallmarks of a true musician.

    Sorry if this sounds either or both of didactic and self-indulgent. I acknowledge the latter, and am sorry about the former. Mea culpa and NOOOOOOO not the cilice…

  4. [Smaug
    Posted Friday, August 3, 2012 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

    Mind you I did NOT vote for Newman because he is, was and always will be a total twit. ]

    No; you let your vote exhaust, just like the rest. Well you got what you wanted.

  5. TLBD,
    Thank you for the info on Youcef Abdi. So, an Algerian from Bankstown,huh? No spring chicken at 34 either. So maybe not another Olympics in him. Nic Bideau knows how to spot ’em though. Didn’t he talent spot Jana Pittman, or was it an early Cathy Freeman?

  6. We’re lucky to be able to listen to so much wonderful music, even when played by people now dead. One of my current favourites is the tragically deceased Mrs Barenboim playing Elgar’s Cello Concerto with hubby conducting. Having it on DVD makes it even better.

  7. Good news:

    David Donovan ‏@davrosz

    As you may have guessed, a new story by me coming on Ashbygate in the very near future.

    He was mentioning the fact that Brough, Palmer, McIver & Slipper all live on the Sunshine Coast. So…

  8. briefly,

    I grew up in Canberra – as is probably obvious by now! In the 1960s, the concert offerings were rare and cherished, and from the time I was 9 my parents (and I) had season tickets to the ABC Recital series – which included (dredging memory now) two orchestral performances – SSO and MSO – plus five recitals – at least one singer, probably two pianists, and another instrumentalist or two.

    Now, back then, the SSO and MSO – while pretty good by Australian standards – were not within a bull’s roar of the leading world orchestras. And my parents had a small but select set of recordings of some of those orchestras with their amazing conductors, like Bruno Walter.

    However, the soloists that the ABC managed to attract to Australia during the 1960s and early 1970s (and beyond that, but 1972 was the endpoint for that era so far as my access to subscriptions was concerned) were magnificent, especially the singers. I know that I saw Schwarzkopf three times (with Gerald Moore, and later Geoffrey Parsons). Then there were Hermann Prey, Gerard Souzay, Ernst Haefliger, Claudio Arrau, Moura Lympany…

    I had an amazingly fortunate childhood and adolescence.

    But tutorials – no. The standard of music education in Australia now is so much higher than when I had vague ambitions: look at the success that Oz-educated musos are having worldwide. If half the money that is pumped into elite sports were put into music education (and arts ed more generally) Australia would take over the world!

  9. TLBD,

    One of the wonders of all great music of whatever genre is that a truly great piece of music can be performed in many different ways by many different artists, and some of those performances will themselves be exceptional.

    That said, Jacqueline du Pré’s performance of the Elgar Cello Concerto has to be as close to perfection as possible.

    And such a short life. What could she have achieved?

    (For that matter, what could Schubert, Purcell, Mozart, and so many others have achieved if not cut down in their early 30s, as she was?)

  10. [5361
    This little black duck

    We’re lucky to be able to listen to so much wonderful music….]

    You’re right, duck….so right. Finding something to listen to – something to which I can be attentive and receptive – well, it’s practically compulsory for me these days.

  11. TLBD@ 5364,

    Strawberry fields forever?

    True story. I decided to make something with Strawberries this weekend. There were punnets from 3 different growers in Coles. One of them was Gowinta Farms. I bought the other two. 😀

  12. fiona….just looking back….from your recollections, you really did have some good luck. It sounds like this has supported you all along. You obviously were able to take a lot from the chance to learn. You’re right about the quality of music these days, too. There are so many accomplished and talented performers and composers….such a great thing. It says a lot about the vision of music educators over the years.

    One of the things that has given me the most joy in life in listening to my own children – especially my daughter – playing and singing…..made me very happy.

  13. David Donovan‏@davrosz

    @Schnappi5 ‘“McIver has complete and absolute power in the LNP,” says another disgruntled Liberal”

  14. C@tmomma

    Good news:

    David Donovan ‏@davrosz

    As you may have guessed, a new story by me coming on Ashbygate in the very near future.

    He was mentioning the fact that Brough, Palmer, McIver & Slipper all live on the Sunshine Coast. So…

    Don’t forget Rudd also has a house on the Sunnie Coast and does coffee with Hockey

  15. [fiona…..Then there was …… Claudio Arrau……]

    To whom I have been listening tonight….and finding I am quite absorbed.. 🙂

  16. [confessions, you have quite rare viewing habits… sport, but plenty of weather. How do account for this?]

    I love the drama of the Weather Channel. The music, the gorgeous photography submitted by viewers, and the casual announcements of destruction and devastation.

  17. David Donovan‏@davrosz

    I wonder how James Ashby working on Wyatt Roy’s Sunshine Coast family strawberry farms feeds into the whole alleged Slipper conspiracy?

  18. [5379

    I love the drama ……the casual announcements of destruction and devastation.]

    You could always join the Canberra Press Gallery 🙂

  19. [1 Julia Gillard
    Tom Cowie Wednesday, 01 August 2012

    When deciding who should comprise our Power 50, and how to rank them, The Power Index surveyed Private Media’s most experienced journalists, editors and publishers. As a combined group, the panel has decades of experience covering national affairs, business, culture and the media.

    Together we came to the decision that the most powerful person in the nation could be none other than Prime Minister Julia Gillard. ]

  20. [I wonder how James Ashby working on Wyatt Roy’s Sunshine Coast family strawberry farms feeds into the whole alleged Slipper conspiracy?]

    Now, if it were a cherry orchard, that would be too tempting…

  21. In all my years never seen anything so desperate about pies, without sauce, cows and abbott makes a dimwit of himself in foreign affairs and trade, gets off.

    The olympic coverage is utter crap.

    never known a worse media, even when packer was anti Gough, at least a resemblance of decency was retained, if they attack pies and floaters , will not be responsible for any actions.

  22. Just putting a feeler out here.

    Regarding the interview with the “no carbon tax” comment in it. Can someone find the original video? Still looking for that.

  23. [Abbott: I was charged with indecent assault – National –

    this article makes me shudder – I went to a private catholic boys school (less posh than Abbott’s) full of blokes like Abbott – I possibly was a bit like that myself, although I was left of centre and atheist by year 10, and by 3rd year uni I’d well and truly grown out of the boyo/yobbo thing, whereas abbott sounds like one of those complete hooray henry wanker types that gets worse at uni – those who went to the catholic uni residential colleges were the worst of the worst at Melbourne – it is probably the same at Sydney? Bending a street sign, groping women, getting your mates to ‘witness’ her being touched on he back; and telling the woman you thought you’d knocked up that you couldn’t marry her because you had a divine calling to become a priest, and then using your trainee priest status to pick up women (‘I left the seminary because I wasn’t good at celibacy’ he joked slyly on Q&A – ‘I’m just such a dog’ he could have added) – that’s a particular low effort from a particularly low individual. The article doesn’t mention that Abbott’s family got a QC to represent him on this case – showing he was a RICH private catholic boys school pratt to boot. The media never focus on his very posh background and let him pretend to be one of the people when the silver spoon is in fact wedged firmly in his mouth.

  24. Schnappi,

    no I mean the interview in which Julia spoke the words “there will be no carbon tax..”

    And the full interview too, which I saw at one point and foolishly did not save a copy.

  25. S’future
    You are wrong, I am afraid, about Mr Abbott.

    The silver spoon is not located between his facial cheeks.

  26. Carney The Concern Troll is wringing his hands in anguish again.

    It’s all too late… too late…

    Such a shame.

    No one’s listening to Labor. The media allow people to criticise Swan’s quite decent speech (so Shaun concedes, but only to put it down later on) without even reading it.

    Now which “media” would that be? Oh, that’s right… the “media” over there. Shaun’s not part of the “media”.

    This was of course the man who told us that Labor was about to be wiped out in South Australia and Tasmania (that’d be the wake-up call Labor needed)… on the selfsame Saturday that both governments were returned to office. Shaun also predicted a triumphant win for Howard in 2007.

    Wait a minute… that must have been the other Shaun… yes, of course.

  27. So the cops wanted to prosecute in the Gillard LoveNest Union e,bezzlement case…

    [INTERNAL documents from an exhaustive police probe into a union funds scandal in the 1990s show detectives suspected former Australian Workers’ Union boss Bruce Wilson and his then alleged bagman, Ralph Blewitt, were “crooks” and wanted them criminally prosecuted over a $400,000-plus alleged fraud. ]

    Cops wanting to prosecute?

    Who knew?

    Why The Australian brings this rehash of a rehash up every 12 months or so is anybody’s guess (I’ve got a guess, probably the same as yours). Nothing’s ever going to come of it, and nothing should come of it.

    What a dreary bunch of nasty losers they are at The Australian.

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