Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.

UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.

House preselection news:

Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.

Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher

Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.

Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.

Senate preselection news:

• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.

• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,396 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Hopefully the narrowing has started but with issues such as the NDIS and the slashing and burning of the Liberal State Governments I was hoping for a bit more

  2. How good a candidate do the locals think Brough is? See following tweet – it may help if you understand the State of Origin:

    [ There was loud cheering and backslapping when Brough was annointed. Chants of Queenslander. ]

  3. A little sus all the polls saying the same thing….then again, when it fits your view about where we are at, I guess you just take it and don’t ask any questions eh?

  4. CO ordinary Aussies have been showing spending restraint for a few years and likely think it’s past time our governments showed some frugality. Not sure the general public views things the way it gets presented here.

  5. Curious, as thought had heard all.

    IndependentAustralia‏@independentaus

    New #Jacksonville story by @madwixxy on IA tomorrow morning. Stay tuned.

  6. Considering how lethal Nielsen had been for Labor recently, a climb to 30 primary and 44 2PP is not disastrous, even if it only converges with Newspoll.

    Essential tomorrow may be more interesting because of their tracking methods. If Gillard’s win on NDIS has any significance it should lead to a small boost. It was pretty clear she wanted to get the trials started. The Lib-NPs, especially the Premiers, were the ones playing politics.

    In the longer run it may help counter that so-called untrustworthy perception.

  7. Spur212,

    Given the known deleterious effects of high cortisol levels upon the human body, I do worry about your general state of health.

  8. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/us-usa-veterans-suicide-idUSBRE86P0YO20120726

    [On a warm summer afternoon in Champion, Ohio, Michael Ecker, a 25-year-old Iraq war veteran, called out to his father from a leafy spot in their backyard. Then, as the two stood steps apart, Michael saluted, raised a gun to his head and pulled the trigger.

    “His eyes rolled back,” his father, Matt, said softly as he recounted the 2009 suicide. “There was just nothing I could do.”

    Weeks before he killed himself, Michael received a letter from the Department of Veterans Affairs accusing him of “over-reporting” the extent of his psychiatric problems. It was the culmination of a long struggle that Ecker, diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder and traumatic brain injury related to his service, had waged since returning home from the war to try to hold down a steady job, obtain VA disability benefits and resume a life as close to normal as possible.

    “I’ve often thought about finding that doctor and saying, ‘Over-reporting?!’ and giving him the death certificate,” Matt Ecker said.

    About once every half hour in America, a veteran within the VA healthcare system tries to commit suicide, according to VA figures for fiscal year 2011.]

    This is very disturbing, imo. I have noticed similar anecdotal accounts of trauma among returned or retired Australian personnel too. I wonder if there is any systematic work done to track and publish by the ADF.

  9. [A little sus all the polls saying the same thing….then again, when it fits your view about where we are at, I guess you just take it and don’t ask any questions eh?]

    Anyone with brains does, never get asked , so have a right to doubt

  10. We have been at 56/44 or thereabouts for quite a long time. I think we can accept that that is where we actually are. That’s a 6% swing and a loss of about 25 seats. Assuming a uniform swing, casualties would include Swan, Gray, Snowden, Kelly, Garrett, Emerson and Smith.

  11. Mod Lib @ 10

    A little sus all the polls saying the same thing….then again, when it fits your view about where we are at, I guess you just take it and don’t ask any questions eh?

    Why do you say that?
    If samples are drawn from the same population you would expect the results to be fairly close together.

  12. [Why do you say that?
    If samples are drawn from the same population you would expect the results to be fairly close together.]

    Just kidding!

    I deal with data all the time, and you usually don’t get a confluence of data points, but of course uniformity is just another form of noise (if you know what I mean????)

    I have said we are at 55-45 +- noise for about a year now I think.

  13. Briefly (Diogenes as well?)

    The 21st century’s version of cannon fodder.

    I have nothing but disgust for the powers-that-be that create and perpetuate this horror.

  14. Spur212,

    [We have been at 30% primary vote, 44/56 for a very long time.]

    Most of the electorate (none of this condescending “populace” stuff) has been told lies by the msm for a very long time.

  15. Mod Lib @ 23

    Just kidding!

    I deal with data all the time, and you usually don’t get a confluence of data points, but of course uniformity is just another form of noise (if you know what I mean????)

    I have said we are at 55-45 +- noise for about a year now I think.

    I majored in Economic Statistics and still remember the basics.

    Some here seem to have no idea at all about the most basic concepts of statistics.

  16. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Preferred PM: Gillard 43 (+1) Abbott 48 (+2)]

    Interesting, given the good week for Gillard and Abbott being absent!

  17. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Effect of #CarbonPrice & Compo: Better off 5 Same 52 Worse off 38 ]

    Oh dear…

  18. The polling all suggests the numbers are 44/56 or thereabouts. What is interesting is the Liberals have not been able to take their support higher; the PV seems to have hit a ceiling; and Abbott’s satisfaction score has been sliding for many months. Labor need a strategy to reclaim around 6-7% of notionally liberal-aligned voters. There is no reason to suppose this is impossible, though it will not be easy.

    I have been clattering away on this before, but I will reiterate. The focus has to be on economic issues: household finances, fiscal management, taxation….and social spending that indirectly benefits low-middle income households in particular.

  19. That PPM result is surprising. It seems there is one result in most polls that stands out.

    48% prefer Abbott? Unbelievable and the undecided % must have fallen.

  20. [briefly
    Posted Sunday, July 29, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    The polling all suggests the numbers are 44/56 or thereabouts. What is interesting is the Liberals have not been able to take their support higher; the PV seems to have hit a ceiling;]

    It has hit a ceiling, you are absolutely right, the trouble for the ALP is that ceiling is 50% primary vote.

    Given a 50% primary vote in the election, if it were uniform, would given the Liberal party 100% of the seats, I suspect the Liberal Party is not too worried about that particular ceiling…

  21. From memory, the worse off figure in the Nielsen last time on the carbon price was above 50%.

    That’s a big drop over the last month.

    The problem is that people aren’t going to get that satisfied/”I’ve reached the horizon” feeling. They’re just going to feel the same uncertainty they’ve always felt

  22. Paddy2,

    Likewise.

    If my elderly mum can see through them, why can’t the rest of the electorate?

    BTW, the reason I complained earlier about the use of the term “populace”, this is why – from my Concise Oxford Dictionary:

    The common people; the rabble

    which I, for one, find extraordinarily offensive.

  23. Schnappi,

    That is a very scary thought. Therefore it would be better if he stayed and had many more head nodding sessions especially about the Ashby issue.

  24. Actually Abbott got more bad press while he was overseas than he usually does when he is home. I think I prefer him here where it’s only us who have to put up with him.

  25. briefly @ 36

    [The polling all suggests the numbers are 44/56 or thereabouts. What is interesting is the Liberals have not been able to take their support higher]

    You’ll get RSI clutching onto that straw so tightly.

  26. I do not get polled. I have Voice Over Internet Protocol and Mobile phone only. This is very common. As a result this does skew polling results. I am a progressive voter unable o be polled. How many more of us is there out there?

  27. [ I am a progressive voter unable o be polled. How many more of us is there out there?]

    Do none of these progressive voters not on landlines live in NSW and Qld?

    The polling there was right on target over the last year before the election….

    I think this is just wishful thinking.

  28. davidwh,
    are you a fellow qlander?
    What are your thoughts about the pefornabce of the new boy regime?

    I work inthe environment field and am running scared.
    His lunacy has already killed off a 100k indigenous project that was funded by the feds.

  29. [29
    Thomas. Paine.

    Seems 44/56 is the new normal for Labor / Coalition. There has been a permanent erosion of Labor PV.]

    “permanent”… how can we know this for sure? Opinions can change, driven by events, policy changes and economic circumstances.

    I think a key is Tony Abbott. He is not stable – far from it. He is obviously very highly strung. He has been struggling lately to put his sentences together….struggling to put forward more than one single coherent idea at a time. This suggests to me that he is responding poorly to the stress of the contest.

    He is also obviously not able to run his front bench as a team. They are just a collection of talking heads with a few cliches to share around, suggesting Abbott is having a lot of trouble communicating with his own key supporters too.

    He reacted very quickly – and showed surprising sensitivity – to allegations that he was too negative. So he is insecure. His ideas are simplistic. He is very tense. He is ready to burst at any time.

    If Labor can work on this, suddenly the contrast between the Government and the Liberals may well start to move voters. After all, at the next election voters not only have to express their views about the past, more importantly they have to think about who can be relied on in the future. Considering Abbott is clearly a risky number, all is not lost for Labor.

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