GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.
The aussie 470 sailors finished in 2nd place in their heat tonight
Absolutly refuse to eat a pizza without olives and double serve Anchovies.
Rossmore we could decided to not eat beef
ajm:
[Actually, if we get really smashed in the Olympic medal tally, I think it will actually make the community LESS prepared to maintain the current obscene level of funding. Coates might have to go and get himself a real job. Who wants to fund losers?]
I hope you’re right. Currently Australia is trailing NZ. That should rub it in.
Oh C@tmomma!
Another edgematch: back in 1968, after my grandmama’s death, we were busy finishing off the granny-flat that was being built for her, so that my parents could let the house and go travelling as a much-needed solace for my mother.
All three of us humanEs spent Christmas Eve puttying the cracks in the floor. Early in theafternoon, my mother put the turkey on to roast (and yes, she DID remember to turn the oven on); the plan was that we would have something simple like ham and salad for dinner.
It was one of the coldest Christmas Eves in Canberra in ages. By the time the dinner hour came, we were all (miniature schnauzer included) salivating madly. So, Christmas Dinner was had, and enjoyed, early – one of those Christmases that I hope will stay in my memory forever (just as yours will, though for significantly different reasons!)
Bemused
I’m trying to keep quiet partly because I’ve given up on trying to convince people on here that the problem isn’t the policies, it’s the PM.
It’s the same deal the PM has when trying to convince swing voters. Everything she tries gets filtered through a predisposition prism of hard dissaproval and all sorts of negative emotions associated with her leadership which simply cannot be overcome.
The same process is happening on here but in reverse. There’s generally a predisposition prism on here to approve of whatever the PM does which is one of very strong approval. So whenever there is constructive criticism of what the PM does on here, even if it’s from an ALP perspective (as it usually is) it gets filtered out or a reaction of strong disapproval. It doesn’t matter how many rational ways you go about it or how much quantitative or qualitative data you show, things simply won’t budge on here
Ducky:
Definately fresh.
Ended up going fresh basil. Will let you know how it ends up.
[5268
confessions
Are there any Bludgers apart from me not watching the Olympics?!]
Me….other than last night while I was out and about …..for a few minutes I watched the men’s 4’s….top race…and the women’s hockey (AU/US)…tense match….apparently I need something called GEM…whatever that is 🙂
Our yachtsmen are doing well i am told
Not seen a thing on tv.
Oh emailed ch 9! We had a shot put, being thrown by aus
And ch 9 had germans playing beach volley ball
We just caught site of our tas , boy coming 4 th in hurdles great effort.
[Artichoke hearts, Anchovies and Kalamata Olives. Very tasty. 🙂 ]
Sound yum.
Connie do you do your own dough
LL #PieGate
C@tmomma @ 5296
Shows how dopey he is!
If she is not replaced by Rudd then she should stay. Putting in anyone else would evoke memories of the NSW syndrome and be a greater disaster.
Spurf so why bring it up
We are enjoying the olyimpics,
One thing it may seem that way for about 5 min, till the media start on him
And oakshottt pulls the pin,
And no good saying it here, as we are not caucas.
My Say
Sailing isnt glamorous. Sailors receive less funding per athelete than others
[So whenever there is constructive criticism of what the PM does on here, even if it’s from an ALP perspective (as it usually is) it gets filtered out or a reaction of strong disapproval. ]
Yet you backed down on your ‘constructive’ criticism of the PM going on holidays last night after some actual constructive criticism of your own stance from a more rational argument from someone you’d classify as not in the swing voter category.
Not everything should be viewed in such binary terms.
Connie i can smell our wholemeal bread just about ready
So we have similar lovley aromas
p2
[Dear Bluey,
Is it possible to arrange a kilo to kilo swap with your esteemed provider (Boerwar), for some elegant yabbies and other local crustaceans.
Boerwar, we can arrange details late]
No worries.
Bugger,
collingwobbles won
[5281
C@tmomma
Did anyone else watch the 7PM ABC24 News? I’m not sure if any other media outlet played an extended version of the Abbott/Hockey/Truss Press Conference about the farce that passes for a Foreign Investment Policy from the Coalition, however all I seemed to get from the edited highlights was Abbott, followed by Hockey, followed by Truss, stating repeatedly,
“I believe in foreign investment in Australia. I truly do.” “I believe in foreign investment.” “I believe foreign companies should be able to invest in Australia.”
Weird or what?]
Abbott has attracted a deluge of criticism for playing populist-xenophobe cards when he should be thinking about our economic progress. Actually, imo, he has made a very serious error. He is trying to politicize our economic relations with China. This is just insane.
Spur, duck and weave. The names Rudd,not Lazarus, A long, slow drawn out show, primma donnas aplenty
briefly @ 5320
There, fixed it for you. 😉
How many Syrians will be going to Malaysia via Xmas island?
Now that our US mates have stirred up trouble in Syria there will be a million plus Christians and Allawis needing somewhere to live. How many will we take? They cannot live in their neighbor states (Do not think Israel, Jordan Turkey or Lebanon can take them. Now if they flee to Iraq it will be a bit absurd.
So this million plus displaced people need a home.
[5304
Fran Barlow
…….Currently Australia is trailing NZ. That should rub it in.]
This might lead to a revision of the Federation….Australia could be a better place if the capital was in Wellington….
briefly:
Am watching the Weather Channel. There are more fronts crossing WA.
Yet no Doppler radar in that state.
Briefly…. wetter, but warmer
Confessions
I’m open to a good line of argument and I am able to admit when I am wrong. Just like what happened the other night
y serious error. He is trying to politicize our economic relations with China. This is just insane. Briefley
Think he is playing to the crowd that use to be popular re they are selling the farm, ect.
Think this thinking has disappeared somewhat. Abbotts behind back about 5/10 years with that.
People realise who nows buys our minerals
briefly,
Glad to see you tonight. Yes, I was wakeful for a short while last night, but then managed the best 7 hours in ages.
I’ve been dipping into the Townsville Chamber Music Festival with some pleasure. However, the other night, when something was on that didn’t inspire in the least, I switched over to our local classics (non ABC) station (3MBS-FM) and was delighted by Jorge Bolet’s performance of Liszt’s transcription of Schubert’s Auf dem Wasser zu Singen.
Now, for all you non-(classical/classical piano) buffs, Jorge Bolet was one of the great unsung heroes of the instrument. He’s there on the edges, but as far as I’m concerned he was and is stellar. I was lucky enough to attend a performance on his Australian tour in 1986(?), when I was still affluent enough to afford concert tickets.
Anyway, this is the recording I heard the other day – and bear in mind that I usually don’t enjoy transcriptions – but this is one that Liszt got absolutely right:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_JyACYu-3Y&feature=related
Night honestly
They come out of the caves
The athletics are our favourite,, oh specialty in officiaiating prev olympics
Actually have to say im very proud of that
We’re not just losing to NZ, we are being caned by NZ. And caned by Kazakhstan, North Korea and South Africa.
Coates has to be sacked after this pathetic performance.
He has brought Australian sport into disrepute. 😀
[5322
bemused
briefly @ 5320
Abbott has attracted a deluge of criticism for playing populist-xenophobe cards when he should be thinking about our economic progress. Actually, imo, he has made a very serious error. He is trying to politicize our economic relations with China. This He is just insane.
There, fixed it for you. ;)]
Many thanks, bemused. You nailed it… It is no longer enough to turn back the boats, it is now desirable to turn back time in relation to China….
My say,
[Actually have to say im very proud of that]
So you should be.
Sleep well.
[Coates has to be sacked after this pathetic performance. ]
The ‘we need 100 mil more to be competetive’ is looking like a red herring
Paddy2
[The aussie 470 sailors finished in 2nd place in their heat tonight]
I’m afraid that was NZ. The Aussies finished 14th in the first race.
bg
There will be a $hitfight after the Olympics about the funding. One camp will say this shows we need to spend more to regain lost pride.
The other side will say we shouldn’t be paying $500 M to send 200 tourists on an all expenses paid holiday to London.
fiona
[Jorge Bolet’s performance of Liszt’s transcription of Schubert’s Auf dem Wasser zu Singen.]
A sublime piece of music and Bolet has a wonderful touch with it.
[I’m open to a good line of argument and I am able to admit when I am wrong]
Quite. It’s why I’m happy to engage with you.
Diogenes @ 5336
Put me in the second camp.
[5329
fiona
briefly,
Glad to see you tonight. Yes, I was wakeful for a short while last night, but then managed the best 7 hours in ages.]
Hi fiona…glad to see you too. Thanks for the url. I will explore… 🙂
I have never had the good fortune of hearing Bolet live. I am envious, I can promise you.
I too have been enjoying parts of the Townsville Festival, though not as often as I would like. I have had a lot over the last few days. The best thing I’ve heard this week was Alfred Brendel giving a tour of one of Schubert’s sonatas….yesterday afternoon (Schubert Piano Sonata in G, D894 Alfred Brendel, p; Philips 456 573-2..36’35). Really totally engrossing. I imagine you know you way around it very well.
Gold medal tallies will always be higher under a Coalition government.
bg,
[The ‘we need 100 mil more to be competetive’ is looking like a red herring]
A red herring that will feed the maws of those higher up the Olympics foodchain, however.
[5326
outside left
Posted Friday, August 3, 2012 at 10:37 pm | Permalink
Briefly…. wetter, but warmer]
And much, much more windy. More scenic too, possibly.
Word from Gusface.
Labor is leading on the primary vote in the seat of North Sydney.
[5325
confessions
briefly:
Am watching the Weather Channel. There are more fronts crossing WA.
Yet no Doppler radar in that state.]
Tell me about it. I was out for a walk earlier on…..got caught in a deluge: soaked to the skin, but no wind….exceedingly dark and saturating….
[Word from Gusface.
Labor is leading on the primary vote in the seat of North Sydney.]
I hear they’re projected somewhere above the 140 mark in the House and Abbott will be knifed by Christopher Pyne on Monday.
Carey M,
[I hear they’re projected somewhere above the 140 mark in the House and Abbott will be knifed by Christopher Pyne on Monday.]
One can only hope.
confessions, you have quite rare viewing habits…..no sport, but plenty of weather. How do account for this?
If Pyne Does Abbott then AshbyGate gets even more interesting.
I just listened to the call of the 3000M Steeplechase as I was on the road to pick up #2 Son from Youth Group, and it appears we may be using one of our more talented asylum seekers in the race. His name was Yusuf Abdab, or something similar, and I’m guessing he may have been Sudanese. 🙂
He was right up on the pace too until the last steeple when he got the wobbles and misfired off it, fading from 1st to 6th in the heat. 🙁
Hopefully he is young and can use it as a learning experience for the next Olympics.
Someone should explain to Abbott & Morrison, that not all ‘good’ refugees are White from South Africa. 😀