Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.

UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.

House preselection news:

Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.

Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher

Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.

Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.

Senate preselection news:

• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.

• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,396 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Boerwar,
    I was fishing in Deception Bay last week and we caught some winter whiting. I thought of Bluey as the first whiting came aboard.
    But unfortunately we had to eat them all.
    Maybe next time we can send some to Bluey and your family. Please let me know if this arrangement would suit Bluey et al

  2. Thank you, BK. Do you know when the women’s singles “skulls” (hat tip, ajm) are on?

    Anyway, at least my fancy – Kim Crow – has “medalled” – and that’s one neologism that I detest with a passion.

  3. shellbell

    [Don’t tell poroti that NZ has slipped past the good guys on the medal table.]
    Did I mention NZ now has 3 times more gold medals than Australia ? 🙂

  4. Geez that Cambage is a very very good basketballer

    I like her wiki profile

    [She was born on 18 August 1991. Cambage was born in London to a Nigerian father and Australian mother. Her parents separated when Cambage was three months old and Cambage moved to Australia with her mother. First settling in Coffs Harbour in New South Wales, the family then moved to Melbourne and later the Mornington Peninsula.

    She is 203 centimetres (80 in) tall. As a youngster, she was chubby and lazy. She was teased about her height in school. At age ten years, she was 182 centimetres (72 in) tall, and was 198 centimetres (78 in) when she was 14 years old. She started playing basketball at her mother’s suggestion when she was 10 as a way to make friends.]

  5. The American women show us how to run the 400M flat. No histrionics, just win by the length of the straight almost. 🙂

  6. One can hope

    SHITANIC2 Gusface‏@GenGusface

    Wow just Wow- if true the #fibs are now 49/51 as opposed to 51/49- may explain some of the posturing

  7. Be interesting if Newspoll does a state by state figure this weekend. Then we might see if Newman has had an effect on the Qld figures.

    Interesting too how the coalition supporters on PB seem to have gone a bit quiet (and the Rudd supporters too,for that matter). Perhaps the government is gradually wresting control of the political agenda out of the grasping hands of the :monkey:

  8. bg,

    [Why do you protest when someone verbs a noun?]

    My rationale is: why should a noun be verballed?

    After all, how would you feel if you were a podium and someone told you that you had been “podiumed”?

    BK and Schnappi, thank you for the updates.

    Zoomster,

    I shall use it!

  9. [Perhaps the government is gradually wresting control of the political agenda ]

    There was the leaked internal polling from yesterday, but yes, perhaps the Rudd claque have decided the Olympics would drown out any Ruddstoration nonsense from them this weekend.

  10. Confessions,

    Et moi – and let me emphasise that I’m only interested in Kim Crow’s progress because I know her.

    And, TLBD, thank you also for details about the final for the signal sCulls (reminds me of the way my father used to tease me when I was a child by insisting that the offspring of swans were singlets…)

  11. Actually, if we get really smashed in the Olympic medal tally, I think it will actually make the community LESS prepared to maintain the current obscene level of funding. Coates might have to go and get himself a real job. Who wants to fund losers?

  12. Did anyone else watch the 7PM ABC24 News? I’m not sure if any other media outlet played an extended version of the Abbott/Hockey/Truss Press Conference about the farce that passes for a Foreign Investment Policy from the Coalition, however all I seemed to get from the edited highlights was Abbott, followed by Hockey, followed by Truss, stating repeatedly,
    “I believe in foreign investment in Australia. I truly do.” “I believe in foreign investment.” “I believe foreign companies should be able to invest in Australia.”

    Weird or what?

    Methinks they have been trickled down on from great heights during the day. 🙂

  13. fiona:

    I understand.

    Ducky:

    What herbs marry goats cheese with capsicum and ham? I’m thinking sage, but maybe thyme?

  14. TLBD,

    [You need to turn the oven on.]

    Edge-matching: Ovens – turkeys – Christmas.

    A long long time ago on Christmas Day I said to me mum, “Have you turned the oven on?” She replied, “Of course I have.”

    Three hours later …

    That Christmas we had a VERY late dinner, though by the time the food arrived most of the assembled company were too cheerful to notice much.

    The following year, my mother and I had an ahem disagreement about how long the turkey needed to cook.

    I let her win.

    Result: Just enough properly cooked turkey to feed the (fortunately) small family. Next problem – to find 100 uses for partially cooked turkey.

  15. P2

    [Boerwar,
    I was fishing in Deception Bay last week and we caught some winter whiting. I thought of Bluey as the first whiting came aboard.
    But unfortunately we had to eat them all.
    Maybe next time we can send some to Bluey and your family. Please let me know if this arrangement would suit Bluey et al]

    Bluey reckons bring it on.

  16. bemused@5277,

    Perhaps it is just that people don’t see much point in talking about the inevitable.

    What? The inevitable failure of the People’s Princess to get up in Caucus? 😀

  17. Dear Bluey,
    Is it possible to arrange a kilo to kilo swap with your esteemed provider (Boerwar), for some elegant yabbies and other local crustaceans.

    Boerwar, we can arrange details late

  18. fiona,
    That story reminds me of the 50 degrees Celsius Christmas, here in Sydney, that I thought I would buy a fresh Chicken to roast for Christmas Dinner(we don’t do Turkey), instead of one of those déclassé frozen birds. I thought it would retain more of the chicken flavour as well, if it hadn’t been frozen.

    So off I went to the only remaining old-fashioned butcher in town to purchase my ‘authentic’ chook.

    I get home, I put said chook in the fridge, not the freezer because that would defeat the purpose of the whole deal. I think, “She’ll be right.”

    Christmas Day comes around and it is 50 big hot ones. There is a bushfire raging over at Berowra, coming our way, but it’s Xmas Day, so the chook must go on.

    I dutifully go to the fridge after putting the oven on to heat us all up some more, get out the chook, open up the bag it was in, and get blown across the room metaphorically by the fumes from the rankest-smelling bird I have ever come across! It had gone off in the fridge overnight, it was that damn hot! Not to mention the fridge getting constantly opened to let the heat in and get cold drinks out.

    As we only ever get one type of meat for Christmas, there was no Plan B. All the shops were shut.

    We ended up having sandwiches for Christmas Dinner.

    Not that we felt like eating much because the smell from the off chicken hung around in the still air for hours, there being no breeze to blow it away completely. 😀

  19. had Xmas once deep in jungle, can of self heating Mock turtle Soup,we got this with our ration packs in Malaya,was in fact leftover ration packs from Korean war,which was in yanks ration packs.

    Nicest meal I can remember from many.

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