Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.

UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.

House preselection news:

Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.

Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher

Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.

Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.

Senate preselection news:

• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.

• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,396 thoughts on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 105 of 108
1 … 104 105 106 … 108

  1. Allegations 30 courthouses to close
    Owen Jacques | 3rd August 2012 8:00 PM

    THE day it trumpeted Queensland’s bright future of fighting crime, the Queensland Government was beset by accusations it would soon close courthouses across the state.

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/08/03/allegations-30-courthouses-close/

    Does Newman not understand why One Nation really formed and why Keating got the boot so hard?

    Its because Queenslanders are the least resilient at dealing with rapid economic change. The whole place is one series of small regional centres, so if he thinks he can rationalise service delivery for everything across the state, the Nats part of the LNP will string him up in weeks.

  2. I love this line in the above article

    It was not great timing for Premier Newman and Mr Bleijie who attended the opening of the $570 million Brisbane Supreme Court and District Court, describing it as a new era for justice in the state

  4. Smaug

    Thoroughly enjoyed your “rant” as it is very true and just laying down what is happening in this State. Newman is such an arrogant bastard, doesn’t give a stuff about peoples’ feelings – never mind the thousands thrown out of work being home owners with kids etc – and he’ll keep doing it as he knows he has no Opposition (reduced to 7) who can make any headway at the moment.

    His day of reckoning will come.

  5. Smaug

    Please do something with your rant

    Try getting in the public arena somehow some where

    Plesse , i must see the light of day, somehow

  6. 72%?!!

    It’s the Military Man writ large: if you see a city, raze it.

    If you see someone who might be an enemy, shoot first, ask questions later.

    Get out the flamethrowers, and burn.

    Destroy the state in order to save it.

    There’ll always be someone who thinks you’re doing a fine thing.

    Until you do it to them.

  7. Its because Queenslanders are the least resilient at dealing with rapid economic change. The whole place is one series of small regional centres

    It’s a very decentralised system, ironically one of the reasons (I think) Newman gave for opposing an NDIS trial. He said it would substantially add to the costs of the trial, or wtte of.

  8. When i lived in qld u had years of joe lib

    We had had years of eric reece lab.

    I ve worked out now why it seemed different

  10. Personally, not living in QueensIand, I hope Campbell remains LNP leader at least until the next Federal Election.

    And then for two years more to teach the poxy ignoramous voters who infest that state a lesson they won’t forget.

    “Queensland, the Mendicant State”.

    How long before we see that on their licence plates?

  12. For those interested in Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) / Genetically Engineered Foods:

    GMO Myths and Truths: An evidence-based examination of the claims made for the safety and efficacy of genetically modified crops. Version 1.3 by
    Michael Antoniou, Claire Robinson & John Fagan. June 2012.

    http://earthopensource.org/files/pdfs/GMO_Myths_and_Truths/GMO_Myths_and_Truths_1.3.pdf

    Michael Antoniou, PhD is reader in molecular genetics and head, Gene Expression and Therapy Group, King’s College London School of Medicine, London, UK. He has 28 years’ experience in the use of genetic engineering technology investigating gene organisation and control, with over 40 peer reviewed publications of original work, and holds inventor status on a number of gene expression biotechnology patents.

    Claire Robinson, MPhil, is research director at Earth Open Source. She has a background in investigative reporting and the communication of topics relating to public health, science and policy, and the environment. She is an editor at GMWatch (www.gmwatch.org), a public information service on issues relating to genetic modification, and was formerly managing editor at SpinProfiles (now Powerbase.org).

    John Fagan, PhD is a leading authority on sustainability in the food system, biosafety, and GMO testing. He is founder and chief scientific officer of one of the world’s first GMO testing and certification companies, through which he has pioneered the development of innovative tools to verify and advance food purity, safety and sustainability. He co-founded Earth Open Source, which uses open source collaboration to advance sustainable food production. Earlier, he conducted cancer research at the US National Institutes of Health. He holds a PhD in biochemistry and molecular and cell biology from Cornell University.

    TrueFood Network: http://www.truefood.org.au/

  13. What he doesnt get if u sake people thy dont spend.
    The the oned u dont sake are too scared to spend
    the ones u sack up in hospital waiting rooms costing gov. Taxes stress,

    This what our premier tried explaing when the lubersls here said our budget was not tough.

    Ofcourse they dont get the economics. ‘
    And we are just number s

  14. Smaug
    5189
    Oustanding post. I fully agree. A highly valuable and sustainable indigenous project which was fully approved and funded has been pulled by the runt. It has cost me a few weeks of work for no return but for the indigenous people it would have been a sustainable and perpetual employment and business opportunity. All gone to the sh&thouse

  20. But he says an incoming Coalition government would not be able to afford similar projects if it scraps the carbon tax.

    “Tony Abbott has said he would get rid of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax. That means getting rid of the $6 billion regional infrastructure fund,” he said.

    Um, er.

    The Minerals Resource Rent Tax is not the carbon tax.

  21. Someone was asking about retaining indigenous languages the other day, but can’t remember who it was.

    In the local paper today there was an article about the local public schools running a project in concert with elders about teaching indigenous languages to students. I meant to photocopy the article and bring it home, but forgot.

  23. Honestly, Abbott is full of shyte!

    Yes, I’ve noticed that the opposition have been coy about attributing stuff to the MRRT, presumably because it means another revenue stream they’ve promised to abolish, yet don’t have the words to fashion a populist, plausible explanation for where alternate funds would be sourced.

    It’s easier to just blame the carbon scheme.

  24. BTW. That was my Friday night rant. According to my therapist its helpful. 😉

    Smaug! Super-great rant, mate! Keep it up.

    I’m sure this, like Borbidge’s first few months, is Newman’s nice phase; eg in Borbidge’s case, before he and the NFF got into bed together to screw the Wharfies (both the labour laws Howard adopted & Libs alliance with NFF started with Borbidge in Q). I think newman’s already ahead of Brobidge’s timetable on Jobs-for-the-Mates and PS sackings. Next for Workchoices, Qld-style for sure.

    The Borbidge government also initiated changes to the industrial relations system by introducing Queensland Workplace Agreements (QWA’s), similar to the Australian Workplace Agreements later created under the Federal Liberal government of John Howard.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Borbidge#Premiership

    Rob Borbidge. Queensland National Party Premier
    Rob Borbidge has invited the National Farmers Federation to set up a non-unionised stevedoring operation in Brisbane. Rob Borbidge is trying to inflame the confrontation between the Maritime Union and Patricks to use against the Labor opposition in a likely state election this year.

    Santo Santoro. Queensland Industrial Relations Minister
    Mr Santoro said that any assistance to the NFF will be forthcoming. “The Queensland Government is certainly very keen to help them in whatever way possible. There will be further discussions, and details of any assistance may be announced as we work our way through.”

    ABC April 3http://www.takver.com/wharfie/who.htm#nff

    As George Santayana famously put it, Those who forget the lessons of history are fated to repeat them.

  25. Smaug @ 5189

    I have not voted liberal since 1983 (the first time I ever voted and, because I was in the Army at the time my advice was, vote Liberal because they look after the Army. Of course said advice was bullshit but I was only 18 and not particularly politically savvy).

    Hahahaha… I was smarter than you!
    I bristled at the bs and propaganda that was fed to us in the RAAF and responded by joining the ALP.
    Also liked to leave a copy of Mao’s ‘Little Red Book’ where it would be noticed during inspections. 😀
    Must get my ASIO file one of these days. It should be fun reading it.

  28. Smaug @ 5189,

    Top post! Echidna stamp with bar.

    Paddy2 @ 5214,

    It has cost me a few weeks of work for no return but for the indigenous people it would have been a sustainable and perpetual employment and business opportunity. All gone to the sh&thouse

    Well, it is obvious what Mr Newman thinks of the first Australians. Along with all the others whom he holds of no account.

    Confessions @ 5200,

    I am ashamed to admit that I voted for Howard in 1996, but remorse well and truly set in by late May 1997 😥

  30. Fiona,
    It really saddens me about this project as my cost is little but for the indigenous Qu#ndam%$ka people the cost and opportunity is enormous.
    Btw i voted for our local ALP member not the ex copper/minister Ruthenbeger

  32. Thnks Bluegeen,

    I am not a violent person but as I drove past the clown day after day and my urge was to swerve and hit the the tiresome pr%ck

  37. Mr Newman

    (1) Suck up to the rich.
    (2) Screw the ordinary person.
    (3) Stick it to the unfortunate.
    (4) Root the environment.
    (5) Suck up to horses.
    (6) Give the arse to the yarts.

  39. Personally, had I been Shorten and supposed that the proprietor of a pie shop had said that Julia Gillard was soft like a microwaved pie I’d have thought she was having a go and after saying “excuse me?” and verifying that this was what she’d said either

    a) asked what that was based on

    OR

    b) responded “uh huh …” taken my pie and walked out.

    It was pretty naive of him to allow himself to be baited

  40. Fiona,
    Suitable omment in so many ways.
    We look forward to using the instruments of native title to progress the program in the future.

  41. chris murphy ‏@chrismurphys
    Did you hear the news LAB Shorten might have been mistakenly rude buying pie. Oh,BTW,42dead 300,000 evacuated in China typhoon

    Says it all about the media in our country.

  44. confessions,

    Someone was asking about retaining indigenous languages the other day, but can’t remember who it was.

    Don’t quote me on this but I think it was bluegreen asking Rod Hagen. bluegreen’s around so can probably confirm. 🙂

    Back to the Olympic Athletics competition. My favourite!

  45. Andrew Elder ‏@awelder
    @chrismurphys Abbott rude to entire Chinese govt, less of a problem than Shorten and one shop lady

    It’s easier to focus on the trivial than it is the substantive, at least in the case of Australia’s media it would seem.

  46. Could we have a restart and have a change of water ,we would get gold instead of silver , im sure if they changed that water the brits have soiled with their 4 year practice on it,

  47. James Brayshaw’s calls of the rowing are simply incompetent. He has no idea of the margins and ability to get up when it comes to Aussie competitors..

  48. Schnappi/BK,

    Which event are we up to? I don’t have TV or digital radio, and the Melbourne station is broadcasting AFL.

  50. Latika Bourke @latikambourke
    1m
    Aussie silver! Tops. RT @fieldproducer: Katherine Grainger and Anna Watkins take gold for @TeamGB in the women’s double skulls #London2012

    Er. I think that would be “sculls”

Comments Page 105 of 108
1 … 104 105 106 … 108

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *