GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.
Compare and contrast…
British sports reportage:
with this shit…
yeah getcha MB its a newspoll fliday
Well, if pies and “Gillard Love Nest” are the best they can do, then it’s a big fizzer.
Shorten did point out one thing, how difficult it is to get a decent take away pie after lunch, they are made in the morning and kept warm until sold out at about 1-2PM. Want want one at another time -wop it in the micro.
Ruawake – That’s true if you are in the city and take lunch after about 1:30 it becomes harder to find anything that isn’t clearly a bit pass it.
How did “Julia Gillard” come into the conversation? Why would Ms Huang say: “I like Julia Gillard” out of the blue?
If this idiot pie shop person was really a fan of Gillard, she’d have shut the TF up and certainly not gone to shock jock radio.
ru
Shorten also points out that he defends his boss to the hilt!
Apparently she remarked that the pie would be soft a bit like Gillard.
The funny thing about that is, Soft is something the PM can never be accursed off
ABC news site hasn’t report Mr Orgill’s appointment. Must be trying to dream up a misleading headline.
Ruawake – That’s true if you are in the city and take lunch after about 1:30 it becomes harder to find anything that isn’t clearly a bit pass it.
I thought that Melbairn was supposed to be pinnacle of culinary opportunity in Australia.
Perhaps this Newspoll Weekend is a test.
Ply the public with the barest credible shit imaginable, then see if the polls still go bad for Labor.
Call it a “control”, double-blind poll.
mexicanbeemer
And that is probably why Shorten got annoyed
Albert Ross – It is if you are happy to go into a restaurant but if you are seeking something quick from a take away place or coffee shop it can be a bit dodgy
Victoria – Yes and it was at that point that he dropped the f-bomb which I think is a fair response.
I still remember it like it was yesterday.
The ABC web site ran a story on the BER.
And right along side it, in “Other Coverage”:
BB
Precisely.
Ah ha… ABC TV News… “Questions ARE being asked” re. failure to win gold medals.
The pie story is unintentionally good for Shorten. Why? It raises his profile it’s moderately polarising and it’s reasonably funny.
Looks like Buyers remorse may be setting in already. Sock it to the wankers who voted for you Can Do.
[TheQldPublicServant @QPublicServant
Toowoomba Chronicle poll shows 72% of respondants wld vote agst Campbell Newman #qldpol #NewmanLied2Qld http://is.gd/8kHOSZ%5D
Gaffhook
72%?!!
It’s reasonably stupid.
But you’d have had to listen to 2GB this afternoon to comprehend that.
That would be the 72% who didn’t vote for him at the election?
Un-scientific, unfortunately.
gaff
That poll is now 83% for what its worth.
http://www.thechronicle.com.au/story/2012/08/02/newman-razor-gang-cuts-heart-of-downs/
I still remember being at the Townsville election NBN presser near my place and the idiot journo asked Julia if she thought shops should charge for tomato sauce sachets for pies or give them free with the pie.
There is a history of Journos and pies.
It is pie in the sky journalism. Total crap but that is what they are being forced to do by their superiors to do SeweRoos bidding.
THE ACTUAL INTERNAL PARTY POLLS ARE TIED.
Gaffhook,
Not very savoury.
ShowsOn Can we have source with that 😉
Gaffhook
My former colleague is a genuine swinging voter, she has no party allegiances.
She is involved in many committees and organisations.
She told me that I would be very pleased with what she is hearing around the traps.
Extreme criticism of Newman but what she found amusing is that not one has owned up to voting for him.
Dee
Will the Qld voters return to Labor?
Rua
Give them two more years to forget it and they will be lining up to vote him in again.
I have no sympathy for idiots who vote LNP then want to spend three years signing protest petition and stumping up at protest rallies and picket lines.
It is far easier not to vote for them.
History will repeat. After 6 years of LNP the idiots will walk to the election booths with the arse out of their trousers and vote the ALP back in.
After 6-9 years of ALP getting them back on their feet they will drive down in their new cars and vote them out.
TLBD
The shopkeeper says it went “The pie would be soft if I put it in the microwave. I like Julia Gillard.”
I’m putting good money on her having said “a lot like Julia Gillard.”
Victoria
A difficult question to answer.
The poll in The Chronicle is of course not scientific but that is an astounding figure for this area regardless, which is blue ribbon right wing heartland.
It ties in with what I was told today.
Dee
Would love to know what results Newspoll would come up with for State Qld
http://www.ffsa.com.au/home/news-archive/news/article/2012/august/acting-prime-minister-wayne-swan-tours-adelaide-shores/
And he lunched just like millions of ordinary Aussies – a pie from the nearest store!
My local stocks a variety of great pies with good meat (inc roast lamb) inside a perfect crisp, short-crust pastry that never gets soggy, not the greasy flaky stuff. Magic (pity about my blood sugar levels… ssssh!)
Good evening all. Sounds like Colin has his own Peta Credlin:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4172364.html
Interestingly, the article asserts that the government’s woes began roughly the same time as Dixie Marshall started working for Barnett. Clearly the Credlin tactics work in opposition, but not in govt where you are expected to be more substantial.
People never vote governments in, they vote them out. To be perfectly honest I was mega pissed with the way things were up here. The trains, the way things were being constantly botched up, the lies (sorry, Anna lied).
Mind you I did NOT vote for Newman because he is, was and always will be a total twit. I have not voted liberal since 1983 (the first time I ever voted and, because I was in the Army at the time my advice was, vote Liberal because they look after the Army. Of course said advice was bullshit but I was only 18 and not particularly politically savvy).
Anna pissed of lots of people because of the way she decided, within days of the previous election, to start selling assets. Not to mention the rises in public transport costs (around 60% for me, for those on the North coast that used to have yearly tickets, around 200%). Then there was the Qld Health pay and lots of other small issues and a truly shitfull campaign to top it off.
People won’t forget the way Newman is acting at the moment. He is shafting plenty of the people who voted him and they will not come back. In three years time the NDIS trials will be in full swing in the southern states yet no-one will be receiving any benefits up here because of Newman. He isn’t given anywhere near the latitude of Abbott, his lies about the state of the Qld economy are being exposed as the cynical bullshit they are. The unions aren’t going to let anyone forget and by sacking 20,000 public servants (with a flow on effect of another 40,000 collateral in lost jobs and failed small businesses) there won’t be a single person who doesn’t have a relative/friend who has been affected.
Top that off with bullshit commands such as today’s announcement about the Ambulances (my sister works as a triage nurse and quite frequently they have to direct Ambulances to other hospitals because they don’t have the staff or capacity to do anything). I have no idea what the dickhead Qld health minister thinks is going to happen, are dozens of nurses/beds going to suddenly become available? What will happen is that staff that are currently working 10 or 15 hour days non-stop will quit or have to take stress leave.
With 20,000 back-office and support staff gone what does the dickhead think will happen to support the front line staff? Who’s going to process the traffic fines, manage the licences, manage staff training, supervise contracts, manage the administrative issues related around running hospitals.
To those of you that voted for Newman (you know who you are, even if I can’t find anyone who admits to it), you are all bloody idiots and are getting exactly what you deserved. For those of us that didn’t vote for him, we get to suffer because you were too stupid to do the basic maths. The funny thing is, by all accounts, you will do the same thing again and vote in Abbott. Dickheads.
Anyone else troubled by the speculation of how Julia Gillard would turn out if microwaved? I think the police should check her place for bodies! 😆
BTW. That was my Friday night rant. According to my therapist its helpful. 😉
‘Carn the pies!… 😉
My friend works for Q- Build ( 32 yrs ) and have lost 5 out of 15 and they won’t know about more going for months ? He rang his super guy to find out about what he can do and said he has received mountains of calls from other Govt. workers. Have not found 1 person that voted for NEWLIAR and his team of idiots. But the Gold coast racing got $110 MILLION and BCC got $248 MILLION for Southbank development.
So is my “connect Abbott to every Liberal Premier” still the best strategy?
You know what really makes me laugh. Newman was complaining about leaks coming from the public service.
Cambell, if you are reading this (or perhaps once of your brain dead staff members). WHAT THE FWARK DO YOU EXPECT. If you are going to kick someone in the nuts don’t expect a great deal of appreciation and loyalty afterwards.
From those still at home, answering a landline, when News Pollsters call: on Friday night, and during what promises to be a bright, sunny sporty weekend – just right for pub dinners & entertainment afterwards and/ or the beaches, esp now the mexicans have retreated South for the rest of the winter; accommodation’s cheaper & easier to get; every place is less crowded, and the boutiques still have good sales going?
Bogantory ones, perhaps?
Perhaps people from tne deep’ south are voting
Not full bottle, no sauce
Seriously, are we gonna do this for everyone now?
Fine. Who do you think will be leading Labor at the next election?* Juliar or Kevliar? And will it be Tonliar or Malcoliar who leads the Coalition, or someliar else? It will also be interesting to see how the Greens perform under Christliar as well.
*Used just to set up a joke. Not an invitation to start a flame war.
I remember after the 1996 federal election having the same difficulties finding anyone who would admit to voting for Howard’s coalition.
Newman’s govt is doing what first term governments with huge majorities normally do: the unpopular, ideological, polarising stuff in their first year. BOF is doing the same, although BOF has far greater substance than Newman, and in addition has an extra year of his govt’s term up his sleeve.