Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.

UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.

House preselection news:

Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.

Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher

Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.

Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.

Senate preselection news:

• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.

• The South Australian Liberals have preselected moderate candidate Anne Ruston to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s casual Senate vacancy. Ben Hyde of The Advertiser reports Ruston won with “more than 50% of the vote”, from a field that also included Kate Raggatt, state party director Bev Barker, farmer Gary Burgess and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan. A moderate source quoted by Daniel Wills of The Australian before the event said Ruston could be in trouble if she failed to achieve 50% in the first round, as Right support would then have consolidated behind whoever performed better out of Barker and Raggatt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,396 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  5. @MiriamElder: Back waiting on stairs among a crush of journos hoping to get into #pussyriot. Nothing like being made to feel like the lowest life form.

    @MiriamElder: A court guard is grabbing a journalist by the arm and kicking her out for laughing.

  6. Think I’ll have to ring Conroy’s office again and complain about ABC. It’s a disgrace.
    Won’t get anything done but what else can i do?

  7. [Seems like a good appointment. Watch for the Libs to go feral.]

    Orgill was the man who gave the BER a High Distinction. Although the media managed to morph this ringing endorsement into an abject catastrophe, it is clear that Orgill is UNSOUND.

    Therefore I demand the following: ELECTION NOW!!!

    Put Orgill in the chaff bag with Gillard, Brown, Swan, Ken Henry, Mr. Justice Moore, Angus Houston, Peter Slipper and a house brick, and dump them outside the heads, but only after taking them to the abbatoir, first burning them as witches, kicking them to death, forcing them to fall on their swords and slaughtering them like old cows.

    DEAD, BURIED, CREMATED and DROWNED… the LOT of ’em.

    Don’t they know Gillard is GONE, Rudd is COMING BACK and Tony Abbott will be Prime Minister this time next year?

    Incompetent idiots, to a person. They can’t even STOP THE BOATS or get rid of A BAD TAX.

    What use are they?

    A BAT! A BAT! MY KINGDOM FOR A BASEBALL BAT!

  8. [@MiriamElder: Back waiting on stairs among a crush of journos hoping to get into #pussyriot. Nothing like being made to feel like the lowest life form.]

    What is this wokan talking about?

  9. A place to moor the Titanic 2?

    [Queensland mining magnate Clive Palmer has unveiled plans to revitalise tourism on the Sunshine Coast with development totalling up to $3 billion.

    His proposals include expanding the Sunshine Coast airport so it can handle international Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 aircraft.

    Mr Palmer wants to build a 1,000 bed beachfront hotel and a theme park at the site of his existing Coolum resort and on adjoining State Government land.

    The airport would be linked to his Coolum Resort by an electric rail service, and a hovercraft service would operate from Brisbane’s CBD.

    Proposals also include a casino for high rollers, an aquarium and an aviary.
    Mr Palmer says if the local community rejects his plans, he will take them overseas.]

    http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/palmer-unveils-3b-sun-coast-040705460.html

    Wouldn’t this hotel/casino be competing with James Packer’s proposals for 6* hotel/casinos in Perth and Sydney? How many high rollers can Australia attract given that Macau is now the Asian Las Vegas and Singapore is following suit? An important issue for Mr Abbott: will any tainted state-owned investment be involved?

  14. Queensland mining magnate Clive Palmer has unveiled plans to revitalise tourism on the Sunshine Coast with development totalling up to $3 billion.

    He is dreaming, lend lease tried to build a 6 story apartment block on the Hyatt Coolum. They had protests at the gates and the No Highrise for Yaroomba signs are still in place.

    Clive should piss off back to the Gold Coast where he belongs.

  15. Pussyriot upset Orthodox sensibilities by appropriating the pulpit of the Moscow’s No 1 Cathedral for theatrical/subversive purposes.

    Mr Putin, sensitive perhaps to his declining appeal, has called for leniency. In the old days this would have meant life in the Gulag rather than a bullet in the back of the head.

    Not sure what it means these days.

  20. They could have a public service job lottery in the Casino

    You are forced to take a ticket, the wheel goes round and round, and if it stops on your number, you are fired.

    Next, please.

  22. Is there are double meaning here?

    [Queensland Rail @QueenslandRail 16m
    Night night everyone. Have a great weekend.]
    View details ·

  23. Boewar and Rua,

    The longer the runt is in power the more bizzare and implausible Clives projects become.
    What about the environmental impacts of all his whacko schemes. He is a bloody nutter with more dosh than he knows what to do with.

  24. Clive can take his plans o/s and stay there with them.

    Clive seems to spend far too much time watching movies. First he wanted to rebuild the Titanic and now he wants that theme park to have dinosaurs wandering around, just like Jurassic Park. I’m wondering what movie will inspire him next.

  26. Boerwar

    Their hearts are in the right place re the church and Putin. This is the song in question

    [The head of the KGB, their chief saint,
    Leads protesters to prison under escort
    In order not to offend His Holiness
    Women must give birth and love]

    [The Church’s praise of rotten dictators
    The cross-bearer procession of black limousines
    A teacher-preacher will meet you at school
    Go to class – bring him money!

    Patriarch Gundyaev believes in Putin
    Bitch, better believe in God instead]

    http://freepussyriot.org/content/lyrics-songs-pussy-riot

  27. leone

    [….that theme park to have dinosaurs wandering around, just like Jurassic Park]

    Well, with Mr Newman’s election, he has got the Jurassic bit already. And by the time El Dinosaur is working on Titanicing the Qld economy. Busy as.

  30. Apparently Mr Newman is going to ban lungfish. Stupid things have been around for far too long. Boring. And they stop dams. Next, please.

  31. leone

    [now he wants that theme park to have dinosaurs wandering around, just like Jurassic Park. ]
    That will be a cinch. Queenslang is crawling with LNP dinosaurs 🙁

  32. After Clive’s ludicrous claim the other day that he’d spent 20 years in the desert looking for iron ore I’m thinking he might be inspired by Lawrence of Arabia.

    I think it’s been a long, long time since Clive was anything near rational and sane.

  38. Lungfish

    Its not like is has been around for about 350 million years (about 285 million years before dinosaurs became extinct)

    Its not like it is the only species in its own friggin order. Not family. Not genera. Not species. But its own order.

    Probably can count the things that are more evolutionarily distinct than the lungfish on one hand.

  40. Watching the story on Bill Shorten v the Shop Keeper is just silly.

    Firstly Bill should not have apologised

    The shop keeper claims to be a labor person yet is said to have called the PM soft then has a sook that Bill dropped the f-bomb in response.

    I think it is very normal for a disgruntled customer to tell a business owner what they think and really isn’t news worthy.

    If I was Shorten I would have thrown the pie back on the counter, asked for a refund and walked out.

  42. Where do they get these Murdoch Clones from? I mean who TF is “Mitchell Bingemann”?

    [NBN Co board adds BER taskforce chief Brad Orgill

    by: MITCHELL BINGEMANN
    From: The Australian
    August 03, 2012 5:13PM

    THE NBN Co has appointed to its board Brad Orgill, the man who headed an inquiry into the government’s school building program which found the project had failed to deliver value for money.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/nbn-co-board-adds-ber-taskforce-chief-brad-orgill/story-fn59niix-1226442454610 ]

    Sure he’s got the meme right, but how many turkies like him ARE there?

  43. Bushfire Bill

    [Brad Orgill, the man who headed an inquiry into the government’s school building program which found the project had failed to deliver value for money.]
    Right that’s it. Truth in media legislation laws NOW. Declare the Dirty Digger not a fit and proper person to own any media , NOW.

  46. [Brad Orgill, the man who headed an inquiry into the government’s school building program which found the project had failed to deliver value for money.]

    Their basic premiss is that the BER was 99.7% successful, which means it “did not deliver 0.3% value for money” or DID “deliver 99.7%VALUE for money”, which translates as written to: “did not deliver {any} value for money”.

  47. There are some laughs at the olympics.

    [Romney’s horse fails to win dressage but avoids offending British.

    Short of mocking Shetland ponies over their lack of stature or laying into zebras for their failure to make a significant contribution to the world of equine culture, Ann Romney’s horse Rafalca was always going to struggle to match the sheer incredulity that her husband managed to provoke on his recent overseas trip.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/aug/02/ann-romney-horse-dressage-medal

  48. [MB

    Thought the customer is always right, but not with media when it concerns labor.]

    The last thing The Australian worries about is customers. I mean the kind that buy the paper.

    As long as they have the willing minions at the ABC who buy the line the paper runs, they count that as a success.

  49. THE NBN Co has appointed to its board Brad Orgill, the man who headed an inquiry into the government’s school building program which found the project had failed to deliver value for money.

    Shame it found the exact opposite, Binge Man is the tame tech guy they pinched from Rupe’s magazines.

  50. Schnappi – Customers can sometimes over-react but based on how the shop keeper explained her actions and Shorten expernation for his response then on this occasion this story is more a case of Friday silliness than serious news.

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