Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.

Also out today:

• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.

• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.

Preselection news:

Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.

Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.

Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.

Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.

Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,685 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 106 of 114
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  2. Ctar1 re Epstein 774 ABC
    _____
    I always feel Epstein is more comfortable on Foreign affairs topics when they arise on his show..and better informed too

  4. Hmmmm that article by Laura Tingle is most interesting.

    Rudd has run close to dead since the February ballot lest he be seen to do anything destabilising.

    Gillard was being given “clear air” so the former prime minister could not be blamed for the government’s woes.

    But even clear air, and the fact the Prime Minister has not made any major blunders over the parliamentary break, haven’t made the story go away.

    Whatever the claims of the Rudd camp, supporters of the Prime Minister see signs everywhere of Rudd, the phantom menace.

    Ever since late May, they argue, there has been a campaign to cause trouble for the Prime Minister on the weekends that Newspoll is in the field.

    Exactly what appears on PB. So does Laura pick it up from PB or are some on PB being fed a particular position originating in the Gillard camp?

    Not the point about Rudd not doing anything that could be seen as destabilising and the Gillard supporters seeing destabilisation everywhere. Sounds like confessions to me.

    Good article h­ttp://tinyurl.com/cftsvbj

  5. SEP= Social Equality Party
    If you are not a socialist at 20 you have no soul, if your not a capitalist at 30 you have no brains. As Rossa is approximately 32 she is showing the truth behind this maxim.

  6. deblonay – He’s done some quality in-depth foreign reporting stuff but I don’t recall much of him recently. Possibly a couple of doses of long service leave before turning up on your local radio.

  9. Bemused as you have said many times K Rudd does not have to appear to do anything – others do it for him. Last weekend it was the only minister to be forced into retirement, the fortnight before it was the missus – I don’t know if he is behind this but the destabilising effect is the same.

  10. Rossa
    I just looked up the SEP website.

    Unless you have thoroughly cleansed yourself of all Trotskyist delusions, please don’t join the ALP. One cult is enough.

  12. OC @ 5259

    Convenient story, but no-one has done more to destabilise the Gillard leadership than Gillard herself.

    She has done well of late and has avoided any major mistakes for a while, but the damage was done long ago and she finds it hard to get traction.

  13. Bemused – wife and I were harangued on (state) election day and agreed to support a very small, struggling party – we’ve never attended any party meetings or received any party literature (they don’t run candidates in the suburbs anyway, which is where we’ve since moved to).

    The ALP is our home.

  14. [As in Bandiera Rossa?]

    For some reason I misread that comment and was gonna say: ‘rossa’ is the feminine form of ‘rosso’ (Italian for ‘red’) and would be used with a feminine noun eg. la/una bandiera rossa (at that point I noticed my reading error) 😆

  15. The Pm is doing brilliantly, how is rudd mentioned here at all , helped absolutely no one with NDIS, did not even tell canjoh to look in the mirror,yesterdays man is just that.

  17. Rossa

    Don’t let them put you off – some of the ‘regulars’ can be a hard school to start with. 👿

    JG’s strong on education, employment conditions and lots of other things. And now giving the NDIS stuff a good push.

    As a practical ‘turn’ to see some good things actually done She’s not all ‘bad’.

  18. Good week for labor and JG.
    Stared down the liberal dolts and got them to bend.
    Ruddstoration a fading memory now thankfully.

  19. Hi to everyone from Olympic UK, I am about 100 miles from London in Somerset, and it is HOT for here. I have had the flu but finally getting better with the antibiotics I always carry from OZ> See Cameron is trying to get some kudos for Olympics, he needs it or a one term PM!! Even the Tory papers are restive about him
    I see as usual the Gillard/Rudd fights are on can’t the chief ones just get off the bandwagon for a while and try to make sure TA doesn’t slip in by default! When you see what is happening over here you know what happens with a Tory even if it a Coalition government. and it isn’t pretty
    By the way great news Poroti re Coulston Rebekka etc being charged, 16/8 they go to court, it is getting closer isn'[t it

  21. Traction’s the main thing, or lack of it, rather. It doesn’t matter how well Gillard does – she’s scored wins, big wins – legislation passing, every week a new amazing stat (interest rates down, inflation down, unemployment so low – all easily spun as GREAT news stories). None of it’s helped!

    We have an opposition stacked with knuckleheads (I mean, does anyone out there look forward to Pyne, Abetz, Mirabella, etc appearing on the news? Are people captivated by their words?), led by the knucklehead in chief – he of the Robocop walk and village idiot haircut, yet they’re ahead in the polls. Consistently. Constantly.

  22. CTar1 @ 5267

    JG’s strong on education, employment conditions and lots of other things. And now giving the NDIS stuff a good push.

    As a practical ‘turn’ to see some good things actually done She’s not all ‘bad’.

    No issues with what the government is doing, but as someone put it (might even have been Rossa), it’s the singer not the song where the problem lies.

  23. Now that NDIS is becoming reality only two big issues left that I know of on the agenda.
    Same Sex Marriage and regulation of the media to guarantee free speech.
    In that order. For reasons for my view of media regulation last see Tony Blairs comments on the politicl cost incurred as outlined in his Leveson testimony.

    In the meantime pause and celebrate the real winners that the ZpM and team were fighting for today in finishing Whitlam’s legacy. The disabled, carers and family and friends. For them I say Hip hip hooray the traditional three times. Woohoo!!!

  29. [Henry

    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    Great week for PM JG. Only the stupid could deny that.]

    Just you wait!

  30. 5269

    The Flu is a virus. Antibiotics are only useful against bacteria. Widespread unnecessary use of antibiotics increases antibiotic resistance. Don`t self medicate with antibiotics. Talk to a doctor about antibiotic resistance.

  33. CTar1 @ 5278

    Bemused – Don’t ever give up. You’d be missed.

    Thanks for that.
    I think some fail to appreciate that all here, with a handful of exceptions, fully support the governments program and want it successfully implemented.
    We mostly despair at the failure of the electorate to reflect this good work in opinion polls.
    Where differences arise is in the diagnosis of the problem and its cure.

  34. CTar1, it is lovely to me at the moment, especially as I am not feeling the best, around here they all say, you bought it with you from Australia, but I go back up to Scotland on Monday and not warm up there, reason I caught the flu I think is 41c in Athens 9c in Edinbnurgh although the fellow sneezing all over me on the plane didn’t help Pleased to read general agreement that JG did well this week, all the people I have run into and know I come from OZ know about our female PM and approve of her, interesting

  35. A few interesting comments on Wixxy Leaks. Love to see lots and lots more and some typical Wixxy Leaks investigation.

    [And thanks to our initial reports on Ashby the documents released by the court show a little man with delusions of grandeur treating Slipper in a manner so vile no person should ever have been subjected to it.

    Blackmail, extortion, misuse of commonwealth offices and funds, collusion, conspiracy to destroy – they are just a few things I can think of off the top of my head about Ashby’s behaviour and I think he and Jackson should be sharing cells.

    I wonder though how long their super expensive lawyers will be bothered with them because one thing is for sure, Ashby won’t get a red cent. ]

    [ wixxy says:
    July 27, 2012 at 3:50 pm

    I think we are only at the tip of the iceberg with Ashby, I think there is for more to come re his relationship with Pyne for starters…

    The plot will get thicker… ]

    http://wixxy.wordpress.com/2012/07/27/the-small-print/

  36. Tom

    Yes. This needs to be emphasized at every opportunity. Golden Staph and other super bugs are a real menace. It is also a reason for wanting to get this educative point through to people in third world nations where apparently you can get access to antibiotics as if it was lollies.

  38. Eartha Kitt was the Sex Kitten, never knew why,could sing in a husky voice,especially santa baby, but wal knew dat guy was a fraud.

  39. [I think some fail to appreciate that all here, with a handful of exceptions, fully support the governments program and want it successfully implemented.
    We mostly despair at the failure of the electorate to reflect this good work in opinion polls.
    Where differences arise is in the diagnosis of the problem and its cure.]
    I agree with this.

    And I ALSO SUPPORT ANNE HATHAWAY AS CATWOMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  40. [Tom the first and best

    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 12:23 am | Permalink

    5269

    The Flu is a virus. Antibiotics are only useful against bacteria. Widespread unnecessary use of antibiotics increases antibiotic resistance. Don`t self medicate with antibiotics. Talk to a doctor about antibiotic resistance.]

    Thank you I am fully aware of overdosage of antibiotics but as this is the first time I have taken any for about 2 years and naturally was prescribed by my doctor in Australia, I think all OK, I didn’t take until my chest became so bad that my ribs were aching from the coughing, which fortunately is now just about gone

  41. mari – OH in France working. She said raining earlier today. She’ll be heading for the train at lunchtime to head south for the weekend.

  42. bemused

    Good post to leave on. I too agree 100%. When all is said and done there is more that unites us than divides us.

    Goodnight to you 🙂

  43. [bemused

    Good post to leave on. I too agree 100%. When all is said and done there is more that unites us than divides us.

    Goodnight to you ]
    HEY MOFOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WE SHOULD ALL UNITE WITH OUR SUPPORT OF ANNE HATHAWAY AS CAT WOMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  44. [CTar1

    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 12:31 am | Permalink

    mari – OH in France working. She said raining earlier today. She’ll be heading for the train at lunchtime to head south for the weekend.]
    Lucky lady, yes it supposed to come in tomorrow not sure how much rain. but still pretty exciting over here

  48. [Anne Hathaway used to do the thing with some other famous person, maybe there is a pattern. Nice personality though for someone who acts for a living.]

    I’m so cynical.

  49. mari – ‘She’ll be heading for the train at lunchtime’ – I’ve just realised the time and she’ll be half way to Menton by now.

    Keep enjoying your time away and chase off your ‘bug’!

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