James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
@carey 5111 spot on, absolutely spot on.
Labor had a good day today and yet again PB is obsessed with Rudd v Gillard.
Having popped in throughout the day there was no mention of the usual drivel until some poster called Rossa came on and in the middle of pretty sensible coverage and discussion of the unfolding events launched into one of the usual diatribes about Rudd this, Gillard that.
Bemused then reposted it and added in his own usual stuff about how such great sense will be ignored because only a few here understand reality, and they get burned at the stake, etc, etc
On another day it will be on the other side who stir the pot. As I have said before it is like watching kids squabble over who has the most Lego.
dave – Sorry. Forget the Serapax.
The ‘dreaming of 07’ bit is something no poor bastard deserves.
Full apology.
🙂
grey
It’s just Machiavelli with some devil’s horns, a bit like Finns’ dolphin.
My say 5179 no we are all in it together. The facts are that it has been difficult up here for a few years depending on what sector you work in. Tourism, construction, manufacturing, retail have all suffered and mining can only do so much. There have been plenty of jobs lost in the private sector since 2008 and the natural disasters just made things worse on top of the GFC.
I don’t think too many people up here are unaware of what we have been through and how long it will take to recover fully.
I walk an hour most days.
Much better thank you.
Don’t need anything else, never have.
Thank you, William. Some of us have developed a headache and need to go to bed. Haven’t got the wherewithall to comment.
fiona
Now that is funny.
Thanks William
fiona @ 5200
I would be interested to hear what bluegreen made of it, but it actually seemed like a good speech that Boris gave.
He used repetition for emphasis and got the audience involved.
It was funny listening to 774 this morning and one of the people on the program referred to Boris Johnston as ‘Boris Yeltsin’. Didn’t hear anyone pick him up on it. 😀
CTar1
None needed old son.
You are one of the truly good guys around here. 🙂
Fiona
I thought it was hilarious too. There are some gems on twitter
Turns out my Crikey account emails haven’t been coming through in the past few days. I’ve passed on your address now, Bemused.
William @ 5212
Thanks for that.
Schnappi @ 5101
[Seems you forgot pyne ,mouthing everything guvmint, and actually spoke about his shadow portfolio, nothing good though]
You’re right – I did forget Pyne.
But he’s bolting for the door, isn’t he.
We’ve seen a practice run in the HoR, but rumour has it that the real run is later this year – Veranda’s basement is a likely destination, I’ve heard.
🙂
DVID WH
don’t think too many people up here are unaware of what we have been through and how long it will take to recover fully.
U poor poor thing tbe second minning state, my coisin says poppy cock
The state is not broke, he sid he sick of newperson
Saying its all anna fault.
Tourism , we grt 500/700 th a year,
U would get more than that
Natural disasters, the should creat eork new homes new building , new roads
GFC??yout mates said it did not happen
i think your being conned
Construction, my other cousin is a builder 68 his boss begs him to come back to work for him often him so busy,
Bemused Re Melb Talkbacks
_____________
I actually meant the three daily talkback hosts…Faine/Mitchell and Hinch
dave – I assure you I’m a total mongrel.
Pretty apt comparison really – both oafs.
On a more important note, what have they done to Silent Witness?
Re Romney and London Olympics
____________
What a fool Romney is’
Actually I hate to say it…but Murdoch has been insisting that Romney is a waste of space and he may be proven right by this silly business
…and Romney has lost Boris Johnstone and Cameron too
I’m not quite sure which bit of the Boris Johnson quirks got people laughing, but I’m so glad that they did.
Night, all.
(PS, Koala stamp to whomever gets the time of my next appearance here within, say, 10 minutes 😉 )
Yes.
One has to always have mongrel in one – otherwise the other mongrels get out of hand and have to be dealt with.
We see it here daily. But there is not always the time.
@5203
[It’s just Machiavelli with some devil’s horns, a bit like Finns’ dolphin.]
I’d much rather Finn’s dolphin to swim past any boat I was on rather than that ‘thing’.
I mean it is hideous in the nicest possible way….
Thanks deblonay.
774 actually has a couple more in the afternoon.
dave – I ‘baggs’ not dreaming of 07.
👿
DavidWH
A while back you suggested that a levy should have been established from the beginning (ie on Wednesday) to fund NDIS.
Come now …… And allow Abbott a six months free kick “big new tax blah blah blah!”
If that’s needed, best it be done after 2013 when spoiler Abbott is gone for good.
TP@5114
[The public are nowhere near as captivated by this or similar issues as the tragics on political blogs. Almost guarantee that 90% of them wouldn’t even know what this was about, apart from some sort of gamesmanship between gillard and some states.]
Maybe true TP but 18.5% of Australian’s are classed as having a disability (2009 figures)
(http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbytitle/49BEE5774F0FB1B1CA256E8B00830DF6?OpenDocument)
or 3.96 million (2005 figures)
(http://www.hreoc.gov.au/disability_rights/employment_inquiry/papers/issues1.htm) now add on all their immediate family, friends, extended family and that is a lot of people that would be very happy with what the current government is introducing. I would say that could translate into quite a few people considering how to vote when in the privacy of the voting booth.
Now add on those who want the NBN as proposed by current government. Those happy to see us do something positive about AGW. Those who want to see the wealthy companies that are making incredible profits from a use once commodity pay more into the coffers of the country. Those that are silently cheering because the troops will shortly be winding down in Afghanistan.
I would say there may be quite a few members of the public doing considerably more thinking inside the polling booth than those sitting comfortably at home on the end of a polling telephone call.
Norwegian court rules blog posts are not ‘made public’
#auspol is ‘mad’ – this described as Tones ‘greatest photo opportunity’:
CTar1
@5229
Hope do not mind used on twitter ,to good to let go, in ridiculing abbott
A tax levy for disabilities will be as big a disaster as the medicare levy. A significant sector of the population actually believe that the levy covers the cost of medicare – this leads to incomprehension and bitterness about rising health costs. I have heard a low level hospital administrator complain about the lack of funding for hospitals and suggest that the government is diverting some of the levy towards its other “green” policies.
I had a really good ’07.
Got out of the stockmarket and saved my retirement plan.
Schnappi – 🙂
Can’t a guy drop in for a beer with his Manager of Opposition Business in the House of Representatives without having his photo taken?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7641950460/in/photostream
PS: Thanks George
As Dio said Bennies produce nasty, sexual dreams. When they were used as sedation for gastroscopies and colonoscopies there was a constant stream of complaints from people who believed that their surgeon had orally and/or anally raped them.
TLBD at 4856 – Anyone who doesn’t fall in line, anyone who dares question the future of this government is a Troll – is that how it works now?
Bemused at 4754 – no, I’m not a member yet – actually, on paper I’m still a member of the SEP, but the wife and I hope to join the ALP officially before the next election.
Regardless, I won’t have anyone question my loyalty to the Labor cause. I just despair at the stubborn refusal by many here to admit that Gillard isn’t winning people over – or at least not the people she needs to win over. Great record? Definitely. I look forward to gloating in the decades to come about how I supported the Rudd/Gillard governments, when younger folk ask why the period was so tumultuous.
(It’s an ancient argument at this point, but the BER and HIS “debacle” memes still get my goat – the fact that they’re overwhelmingly considered failures, synonymous with rorts and waste ticks me off to no end. When I voted in 2010, I did so at my Primary School – I finished there in 1992. The only changes since then were BER projects. My High School still has tin-shed demountables as regular classrooms. The BER, IMO, is the best stimulus program conceived in the past half-century, and dramatically under-appreciated.)
The NDIS? Great idea, and good result this week. Will it win Gillard support? No. It may hurt the premiers – but in NSW and Qld especially they can spend the next eight years pissing people off and still hold on to power. BOF won my seat, FFS – public housing estates, ESLers, household income just below the national average, and they voted Liberal.
Are the MSM journalists fair? Heck no – it’s not even just the Murdoch press (I can’t say for sure as I set myself a new year’s resolution this year to not read anything more than the front page headlines of the Daily Telegraph and the Australian (would never buy them, but there are free copies in the lunch-room at work), as even Fairfax slips in the subtly negative phrase “Gillard regime” in straight news stories from time to time, and let’s not forget they started the campaign against Craig Thompson.
They’ll go out of their way to spin every story the worst way for the government as often as possible, and no Opposition leader has ever received as warm a reception as Abbott in my lifetime – I don’t deny that Rudd would still face a hostile media, but the fact remains his hold over the people (the people who matter, too. Suburbanites with little interest in politics beyond the tabloid front page and the 5 minute politics summary on the 6.00 news) is almost unshakable; that’s a tool worth exploiting while it’s there! Surely!
dave – I chucked in work after 30 years of it the same year.
My say I am really happy for your relatives. I work in construction and business has halved for us since 2008. We are luckier than others as numbers have gone out of business and some firms I never would have expected that to happen.
But I understand you would believe what family and friends tell you over an anon nic on a message board.
His hold over the people is unshakeable.
How can you argue with that?
[It’s just Machiavelli with some devil’s horns, a bit like Finns’ dolphin.]
It also bears resemblance to my local Member, the Federal Member for Warringah – I would much rather have Machiavelli…
Bemused 5224 …re Melb talkbacks
__________________
The two talbacks post-lunch on AW and 774 ABC ..are by two men but very slight programs with little more than media chat and show-business gossip …not worthy the time really except that at the moment on ABC post-lunch they have a replacement in the person of “Elle McFeast” ..aka Libby Gore ..who is smart and witty and much more challenging and informed on serious topics.
Very good stuff..
I’d like to see her as an ABC replacement for the man who currently does the program…and who is a bore and very slight value and has nothing of any real interest to talk about
Epstein who comes on 774 ABC at 3.00 and runs at the same time as Hince is an ABC journo with a long foreign affairs career resume …and quite good
debloney
Libby is also a smart lawyer
5239 Oakeshott Country – the policies won’t change. The difference is people will actually vote for the party that’s bringing them to life. Why is that a problem?
Rossa @ 5236
Well I hope you go ahead and join and the sooner the better. What is SEP?
Yes, the attitude of many here is just pathetic.
Deblonay – Rafael Epstein has been around for a while doing ‘foreign correspondent’ type stuff.
How these people perform when doing domestic stuff is ‘variable’ I’ve noticed.
Rossa because you have no proof for your belief in Rudd’s messianic qualities.
Rossa
I relate to your pain and agree with most of what you’ve written.
[I look forward to gloating in the decades to come about how I supported the Rudd/Gillard governments, when younger folk ask why the period was so tumultuous. ]
Yes, quite. The attitude of the PB Rudd Cult towards the achievements of this Labor govt is just pathetic really when you think about it. Apparently achievements matter nowt as opposed to fleeting TV appearances.
Madness.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/07/26/a-recap-of-romneys-tough-day-in-london/
—————————-
A US blog’s view of Romney’s London disaster
Quite apt critique and damaging at home in the USA
_______________
The “US Conservative “Mag….no great fan of Romney,and a bitter critique of the Neo-Cons foreign policies…and rather inclined to old fashioned isolationism..will seize on this to damn Romney…as it will I sure when he get’s to Israel in a few days where he will go all GAGA over the vile Natayahu( but good for the Jewish vote in NY and Florida..otherwise why go there?? )
Oddly the only other European country he is visiting after the UK is Poland where the very right-wing govt. is the perfect puppet-regime of the kind Washington likes
But Poland ????
[It also bears resemblance to my local Member, the Federal Member for Warringah]
Local member goes off half-cocked.