Before I proceed, a plug for the Westpoll WA state poll post, which this post is bumping from the top of the page.
Moreton extends from the southern Brisbane riverside suburbs of Oxley, Sherwood and Yeronga out to Runcorn and Acacia Ridge in the south, the latter area being the more favourable for Labor. It was one of nine Queensland seats gained by Labor at the 2007 election, of which it and two others stayed with the party in 2010. The seat has existed in name since federation, but was based on the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s southern outskirts until the creation of McPherson in 1949. It then began a long drift north into the inner suburbs, making marginal a seat that had once been safely conservative. The first near-miss came with Jim Killen’s famous 130-vote win in 1961, achieved with help from Communist Party preference leakage, which allowed the Menzies government to survive with a one-seat majority. Labor would not get over the line until 1990, when Liberal veteran Don Cameron was unseated by Garrie Gibson.
Gibson suffered a small adverse swing in 1993 before succumbing to a further 4.9% swing amid the Queensland tidal wave of 1996. The new Liberal member was Gary Hardgrave, a former children’s television host and media adviser to Senator David MacGibbon. Hardgrave held junior ministry positions from 2001 to 2005 while maintaining a tenuous grip on his seat, surviving a 4.2% swing in 1998 and an unfavourable redistribution in 2004. Redistribution further chipped away at his margin before the 2007 election, and he was unseated by a 7.5% swing to Labor in 2007. He has since kept in the public eye as the drive presenter on Fairfax Radio’s Brisbane station 4BC.
The seat has since been held for Labor by Graham Perrett, previously an adviser to the Queensland Resources Council and earlier a state ministerial staffer and official with the Queensland Independent Education Union. Perrett enjoyed what proved to be a decisive 1.4% boost at the redistribution before the 2010 election, at which a 4.9% swing cut his margin to 1.1%. He made the news in his first term with the publication of his “erotic novel”, The Twelfth Fish, and in his second when he threatened to quit parliament if Labor changed leaders again, a position he backed away from when Kevin Rudd was marshalling his unsuccessful leadership challenge in February 2012.
The Liberal National Party has gain preselected its candidate from 2010, Malcolm Cole, a former Courier-Mail journalist and late Howard-era staffer to Alexander Downer and Santo Santoro. For the 2010 election the LNP initially preselected Michael Palmer, the 20-year-old son of Clive, which was seen as a measure of the Coalition’s bleak electoral prospects at the time. This together with the preselection of Wyatt Roy in Longman drew considerable derision, and some skepticism was expressed when Palmer withdrew on health grounds.
rosemour – a Christmas changeover doesn’t leave a lot of time to save the furniture. The sooner Gillard is rolled the better.
Interesting that Psephos posted that the current anti-greens diatribes are actually part of a Gillard destabilisation action. If that is the case (and Psephos would be better placed to know than most) then presumably Rudd would now be within 10 of the number that he needs.
John Black in the AFR today (pay walled)
http://afr.com/p/national/julia_drowns_in_queensland_CjxUDJMmrRPoNeuPP1mB9N
WWP
I think it would be reasonable for us to say that the US Democrats are a party of the Centre right in world terms, even though they are the left party in the US. I think it IS reasonable to consider parties both in world terms and in historical terms.
And psephos has also said that a challenge by Rudd in spring will fail.
Cherry picking, much?
Zoomster
Yes I did get that you had moved from right to left on many issues. i think the principle is still the same.
Perhaps Shaw’s expression these days would run passionate politics to more mild centrist views.
The Port Power football team have just returned from a trip to Zimbabwe where they visited an orphanage.
“It was absolutely great to be able to meet such underprivileged people with little future and no hope in life”, said Alfredo Mogomboi, aged six.
f61
[Boerwar, isn’t it time for you to complain about the Brittish again, if only as some comic relief from your anti greens agenda?]
fb has done a pretty good on the London Olympics. Glad I am not there.
Dio
*laughs out loud*
spur212 is here to debate with shows on about the polling
Dio
Another big change if humans suddenly stopped inhabiting the planet would be massive population crashes in all sorts of human-based endo- and ecto- parasites as well as pathogens. There would probably also be a huge shift from grasslands to forests. Globalization of life forms would slow down drastically.
Seashores would look radically different as they once again become complex habitats covered with washed up trees, dead fish, masses of sea-weed and the like. Rock platforms would once again be covered with a living mass of sea shells, molluscs and the like.
Demons giving Dockers a bit of a hiding.
Boerwar – “fb has done a pretty good on the London Olympics. Glad I am not there.”
On that at least, we can agree.
F61
Not like you to be a British Basher.
Dio: classic 😀
ed Saturday, July 14, 2012 at 1:36 pm | Permalink
Exactly how would a deposit scheme cost familes $300?
If $300 is an accurate figure, and too much of an impost, what if anything wold be reasonable?
Is it the scheme or the proponents that are so objectionable? FARGO?
So u must be green , so now we have greens and the no senence , re th e pm
So now there is spurr, yourself
Bemused, ddt , ,
Feeney, ,
Not such a long list really , when i did the survey, we where ask to just say what we thought
I said no to mr rudd.
I wasn’t Brittish bashing – its just that I wopuld not feel comfortable visiting anywhere while the Olympics is on (there) due to crowds, security concerns and inflated costs.
As for the current London games and their security arrangements – so much for the great efficency of private enterprise and the Tories.
Sorry i forgot rosemoure
Tony Burke on twitter saying the reports of a national scheme to make deposits on recyclables compulsory incorrect – government has merely done the groundwork to enable each state to take it up if they wish to.
Of course, there are already media reports out there that it’s a ‘secret tax’ by the feds which will send up cost of living by $300 a year.
From memory it was his opinon only
FARGO SAID
eens diatribes are actually part of a Gillard
SO YOU MAY be exagerating ,
From memory it was his opinion .
We dont want reader reading your quotes and thinking it was fact , do we.
Go back and find phes, post ,
One should never
Quote, one should link
my say –
“So u must be green , so now we have greens and the no senence , re th e pm
So now there is spurr, yourself
Bemused, ddt , ,”
Is it possible for you to translate that bit into something what is more like the english?
Puffy
I’m very happy with SA’s recyclable scheme. The added advantage of homeless people getting money by collecting bottles is also a real plus.
The article
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/new–plastic-tax–may-add-over–300-to-household-grocery-bills.html
Tony Burke’s tweets:
[
Tony Burke@Tony_Burke
Some states have supported container deposit incl Vic. We completed the reg impact statemnt which was req. But a state decision.
9hTony Burke@Tony_Burke
So before the opp starts railing against the bill from the greens, readers of today’s Tele should know the govt does not support the bill.
9hTony Burke@Tony_Burke
Re today’s Tele and container deposit. We oppose forcing a federal system but have done the reg work for those states wanting to introduce.]
Zoomster
So the damage is do ne,
An add in every paper , sayi g similar to what mr burke has said
Seems every policy we have should be done in the public notice area , for three sat. In a row
That woul make them report correctly
[109
Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)
@WeWantPaul – I look forward to a list of ALP actions which prove that they are to the left of what most OECD countries are doing.
I could write a long list of areas where the Alternative Liberal Party have continued business as usual. But you all know what I would write, so no need.]
This is an utterly fatuous position, MWH. In critical areas relating to the use of State financial resources and legal authority, the ALP has affirmed its social-democratic credentials. Consider:
The proactive fiscal strategies used to forestall and avert recession following the GFC
The use of sovereign financial strength to support the financial system during the GFC
The use of public sector finance to create the NBN
The design and launch of the NDIS as a public welfare initiative
The use of tax policy to consciously re-distribute the income gains available from the resources boom
The use of Commonwealth legal powers to legislate and launch a system for pricing carbon, notwithstanding the opposition this has invited
The expansion of Commonwealth spending in health, education and public infrastructure
The reform of the IR laws
This is not an exhaustive list, but they are all matters of genuine substance that have been largely opposed by the real Liberal Party. Self-serving attempts by the Greens to depict Labor as a conservative party boil down to the politics of the smear and the lie.
Zoomster can that link be tweeted
I used the word no sence for a reason
Ok nonsense
if thats suits u .
mysay
I’ve put out a tweet!
NSW ALP Conf_
_________
The resolution re the Greens and prefs was opposed and cricised by Albo/Faulkner and Cameron…all pretty shrewd pollies
It will acheive nothing…save..that .it will be the final touch that well make the Green victory in Melb next Saturday more likely than not
Faukner was right whe he said the real problem was th disasterous ALP primary vote around 30%… that’s the real and critical problem…perhaps all this is a ploy by Howes and the Boys to dump Julia as a some are saying…that is the NSW road isn’t it.??..just ask Kennelly …one leadership bid after another…tiill doomsday strikes in a tsunami of seats lost and a generation in opposiition…another Menzies era?? !but with Abbott as Australi’s Thatcher…
[A controversial new scheme that proposes to levy a tax on glass and plastic containers could see a family’s average grocery bills go up by more than $300, the Herald Sun reports.]
The scheme wouldn’t cost anything if the family recycles and the family could make a profit if they collect other people’s recyclables.
U well could be a liberal alsoo from time to time people appear here telling caucas
what they should do
I am sure they read your advice daily
Along with all their advisor s here on pb and will duly obey:-) 🙂 🙂
Thanks my say, but what does this mean –
“So now there is spurr, yourself
Bemused, ddt , ,”
Great zomster
[spur212
Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 at 2:16 pm | Permalink
“If we stick with Gillard, we’re so f***** it isn’t funny”
John Black in the AFR today (pay walled)]
Like he’d know! When’s the last time he said anything positive about Labor?
Promoters of rudd
P o r
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[The scheme costs consumers nothing in net terms, unless they are too lazy to recycle their containers.]
Exactly. It costs you nothing unless you are a lazy bastard that cannot be bothered returning the containers. Bring it on I say. I used to get a lot of my pocket money returning soft drink bottles for 1 + 2 cents each 🙂
[Tony Burke on twitter saying the reports of a national scheme to make deposits on recyclables compulsory incorrect]
Sad to say the Tele’s story is smack dab on the front page of its print edition in yard-high newstype. It will be there all day screaming about a secret tax.
Twittering a correction doesn’t cut it when it comes to hundreds of thousands of banner headlines all over NSW and Victoria saying precisely the opposite.
Gd
Correct me if i am wrong but the a f r
Got a new editor some months ago i think
🙂 🙂 🙂
MWH
If you are still around.
The Greens Party cannot possibly be considered a credible alternative government if it does not do costings. Apparently the Party has just casually dropped death duties from its list of ‘specific’ policies. Mind you, no costings, no rates, no notion of quantum made this ‘specific’ policy very ‘unspecific’. There was, as I understand it, not the slightest thought of the revenue implications of this rather drastic policy switch.
In the absence of comprehensive costings and revenue forecasts, the Greens Party cannot give us an idea of what government proportion of GDP would be. This does not, of course, stop Greens Party supporters from pontificating about the Labor Government’s proportion of economy.
Rather than just snipe away at how Labor are immoral scum lacking in integrity, the Greens Party supporters need to put up some credibly costed alternatives. A Reds grab bag of wishlist ‘measures’ does not cut it.
BTW, perhaps you could answer a policy question? Since the Greens Party is going to switch in a major way to natural resource-based taxes, are they going to implement a land tax on farmland? At what rate will it be levied? What are the revenue implications? If the Greens Party is not going to levy a land tax, when will it specifically exclude a land tax? Ditto for a water tax.
I know these are bothersome and tiresome details but we are all entitled to know what life is going to be like when Greens Party integrity actually hits the road.
my say – when you refer to nonsense, exactly what nonsense are you on about?
Is there some particular reason you oppose recycling, or do you mean something else?
The story’s still on the web site, too (although bumped down the page two spaces).
A selection of letters:
[
Rob from Pendo Posted at 9:17 AM Today
Time to rid this country of a tax, a PM and a repugnant party that nobody wants and only lines their pockets with out money. ELECTION NOW!!!
FAY of seven hills Posted at 9:09 AM Today
the greatest gift we could do for this country is to rid ourselves of this lying gov,we have never had it so bad how much longer do we have to live under this dictatorship its making us sick
Bec of SydCity Posted at 8:45 AM Today
Disgusting. Is there anything the federal government & the greens can do besides sit around and make up new taxes? They’re supposed to be running this country, not thinking of ways to bleed us dry.]
Dio
years ago, the then Labor government in Victoria looked very seriously at introducing such a scheme, and my policy committee was involved in discussions about it.
We were shown fairly conclusive evidence at the time that it would be far more pain than gain (can’t remember all the details now).
Apparently one that’s up and running, like SA’s, is great, but the costs of establishing a system from scratch are prohibitive.
THINK it has to do with the costs of collection and transport, but – as I said – it was years ago now and the details are hazy.
Certainly all of those who looked at the evidence at the time agreed it wasn’t worth pursuing.
BB
Unfortuatley no
But we have to try.
I mentioned above all policies
Should be placed in the public notice section
Of all papers for three weeks
On being released
No
The pm rolling , trolling bit
Now u are just pretending u didnt know whst i meant
I used to be a regular contributor on ‘The Punch’ but stopped a year or so ago – I kept getting emails from the journos moderating which made me distinctly uncomfortable about posting there.
Went back for a look today whilst PB was down.
I know where all of Bolt’s commentators have gone!
Deblonay
Read somewhere
Cannot remember where, (might have heard it on News 24) but the idea of the NSW right is essentially to destroy Albo and the inner city left – nothing to do with the Greens at all. Not sure if this is true, but it is pretty obvious (including on THIS Blog) than many in the ALP right hate the greeny left more than they hate the Liberals.
The actual IMPACT of the NSW decision will be to weaken the electoral position of Albo and Tanya P and potentially deliver these seats to the Greens. Potentially also Richmond and Page Freemantle, and Batman, and eventually the two ACT seats. Banks, Barton, Melbourne Ports, Brisbane and Griffith once Rudd leaves will be Lib/Green contests.
z
[Apparently one that’s up and running, like SA’s, is great, but the costs of establishing a system from scratch are prohibitive.]
That may well be the case. I like the idea of industrious people collecting the recyclables so they can get a bit extra for themselves and their family.
[my say
Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 at 2:58 pm | Permalink
Gd
Correct me if i am wrong but the a f r
Got a new editor some months ago i think]
Yes, Stuchbury (my spelling might by wrong), a former Murdoch man … say no more!
Zoomster
If you support the Carbon Price it is ignorant and inconsistent NOT to also support a deposit system (or something just as effective for containers. Maybe not ALL containers but certainly aluminum, glass and steel. The net greenhouse benefit from these three being collected in enormous.
The transport arguments are a bit thin since the containers must be transported as waste in any case.
When were you involved in a policy committee and who did you work with. I may know them.
Actually that $300 a year “tax” figure is pretty fake. It’s 10c a bottle so the family would have to used 10 bottles/containers a day to reach $300.
Boerwar – When the Commonwealth authorises and funds Treasury to do thorough, timely and confidential costings for all registered political parties, and members of Parliament, it will be reasonable for non Government parties to provide costed policies, and not before.
And in any case, re -“In the absence of comprehensive costings and revenue forecasts, the Greens Party cannot give us an idea of what government proportion of GDP would be.” – they would still have about as much idea about the “government proportion of GDP” as anyone else – given the difficulties encountered in estimating over the past decade.
And further, recent data shows that contrary to your implied assertion, the “government proportion of GDP” is not relevant to overall wealth (in ‘advanced – mixed’ economies, like ours).
Do you wish claim that there is in fact an optimum proportion?