Seat of the week: Moreton

Before I proceed, a plug for the Westpoll WA state poll post, which this post is bumping from the top of the page.

Moreton extends from the southern Brisbane riverside suburbs of Oxley, Sherwood and Yeronga out to Runcorn and Acacia Ridge in the south, the latter area being the more favourable for Labor. It was one of nine Queensland seats gained by Labor at the 2007 election, of which it and two others stayed with the party in 2010. The seat has existed in name since federation, but was based on the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s southern outskirts until the creation of McPherson in 1949. It then began a long drift north into the inner suburbs, making marginal a seat that had once been safely conservative. The first near-miss came with Jim Killen’s famous 130-vote win in 1961, achieved with help from Communist Party preference leakage, which allowed the Menzies government to survive with a one-seat majority. Labor would not get over the line until 1990, when Liberal veteran Don Cameron was unseated by Garrie Gibson.

Gibson suffered a small adverse swing in 1993 before succumbing to a further 4.9% swing amid the Queensland tidal wave of 1996. The new Liberal member was Gary Hardgrave, a former children’s television host and media adviser to Senator David MacGibbon. Hardgrave held junior ministry positions from 2001 to 2005 while maintaining a tenuous grip on his seat, surviving a 4.2% swing in 1998 and an unfavourable redistribution in 2004. Redistribution further chipped away at his margin before the 2007 election, and he was unseated by a 7.5% swing to Labor in 2007. He has since kept in the public eye as the drive presenter on Fairfax Radio’s Brisbane station 4BC.

The seat has since been held for Labor by Graham Perrett, previously an adviser to the Queensland Resources Council and earlier a state ministerial staffer and official with the Queensland Independent Education Union. Perrett enjoyed what proved to be a decisive 1.4% boost at the redistribution before the 2010 election, at which a 4.9% swing cut his margin to 1.1%. He made the news in his first term with the publication of his “erotic novel”, The Twelfth Fish, and in his second when he threatened to quit parliament if Labor changed leaders again, a position he backed away from when Kevin Rudd was marshalling his unsuccessful leadership challenge in February 2012.

The Liberal National Party has gain preselected its candidate from 2010, Malcolm Cole, a former Courier-Mail journalist and late Howard-era staffer to Alexander Downer and Santo Santoro. For the 2010 election the LNP initially preselected Michael Palmer, the 20-year-old son of Clive, which was seen as a measure of the Coalition’s bleak electoral prospects at the time. This together with the preselection of Wyatt Roy in Longman drew considerable derision, and some skepticism was expressed when Palmer withdrew on health grounds.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,169 comments on “Seat of the week: Moreton”

Comments Page 1 of 44
1 2 … 44

  2. On the AWU/NSW Right-Greens war, an interesting piece from Geoffrey Robinson, a politics academic from Deakin Uni (Warrnambool, virtually making him a near neighbour of mine)
    https://theconversation.edu.au/labour-pains-cause-alp-to-see-red-over-greens-8250

    This conclusion is ominous
    [In the golden post-war years, the Communist Party had rivalled Labor as a pole of attraction for many union activists, but now political Labor activists enjoy an unprecedented dominance of industrial labour. The Greens, however, pose far greater electoral challenge to Labor than the Communists ever did. Anti-unionism now seemed hardwired into the federal Coalition to a much greater extent than in the 1970s or 1980s or even the 1920s and 1930s. In the logic, then, of Paul Howes and many others in the ALP, the Greens represent a threat to Labor’s electability and hence, “objectively”, to the union movement. They have argued that as Green voters will always preference the ALP their concerns can be entirely ignored.

    Labor’s current rhetoric against the Greens is partially an expression of frustration, but it also reflects a deeper anxiety about the survival of the labour movement. Panic may come to supplant realistic analysis and coalition-building for industrial and political labour. ]

  4. Good Morning Bludgers!
    Graham Perrett is one of parliament’s genuinely nice guys. Coming from a large Catholic family, with brothers who are building contractors, one who’s gay(the basis of his coming out 😉 to support Stephen Jones’ Same Sex Marriage Bill recently.

    So you would have to say that he is capable of having a link to the real world that would forever be unbroken. So, if anyone could, he should be able to hang onto his seat in Queensland.

  5. [So, if anyone could, he should be able to hang onto his seat in Queensland.]

    The trouble is, its unlikely anyone from the ALP will in 2013…thats the whole point!

    An unmentionable perhaps, but no-one else…

  6. Where is everybody? I thought this was the main thread from late last night.

    Everyone’s banned for discussing leadershit. At least that’s where I thought it was heading for a while last night. 😉

  7. [Where is everybody? I thought this was the main thread from late last night.]

    Nothing much happening, is there?

    WA Lib government with swing towards it and likely to win….quel surprise!

  8. Good morning Dawn(ish) Patrollers.
    I suppose Christian chaplains are OK then?
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/scientists-reject-lnp-school-move-20120713-221or.html
    David Pope isn’t very impressed with it either.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Cathy Wilcox shows the different views the carbon “tax”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    A nice one from Ron Tandberg.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    No, there’s no problem, is there?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/38bn-blown-on-pokies-20120713-221p6.html

  11. Good morning all.

    [The Liberal National Party has gain preselected its candidate from 2010, Malcolm Cole, a former Courier-Mail journalist ]

    Surprisement! More msm journalist links to the Liberal party.

  12. Heh… just noticed that the radio between Hadley and Lewis never happened.

    It was between Chris Smith (equally odious… he’s the one who organized the “Bob Brown’s Bitch” demo) and Lewis.

    In the video, the graphic accompanying the video depicts Ray Hadley, but the voice is definitely Chris Smith’s asking the questions.

    It doesn’t matter really, just one of those quirks, but it annoys me that I didn’t notice.

    Clearly Slipper’s brief got the interviewer’s identity right on the day, anyway.

    All the nasty adjectives applying to Hadley apply to Smith in any case: boorish, vindictive, full of hatred and a complete smartarse. If anything, Smith is, as far as politics is concerned, even more anti-Labor than Hadley (although it’s a close call).

  13. [Surprisement! More msm journalist links to the Liberal party.]

    What about Maxine McKew and Mike Bailey, ABC news reporters who became ALP candidates.

    Does that prove Aunty bias?

  15. It’s no co-incidence:

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans
    @SwannyDPM @CraigEmersonMP China BISONs – GDP 7.6% Inflation 2.2% Interest 3% – Australia BISONs – GDP 4.3% Inflation 2.1% Interest 3.5%

  16. Mod Lib,
    What attitudes like yours suggest to me is that, underneath your Mod Lib skin, you are a totalitarian at heart. Or, maybe that’s what being a ‘Mod Lib’ is all about.

    To be happy at the thought that not even worthy candidates from the opposing party, better able to represent their electorate than the already failed once previous candidate for the party you adore, is not again worthy of at least having a fighting chance to retain the seat, is blinkered foolishness of the first order.

    Did you read Mike Carlton’s article today, linked to earlier? You actually support the party led by such a callous, cruel goon as Tony Abbott?

    I’m sorry, but it’s you that I have pity for, ‘Mod Lib’, that your basic humanity is like a slate that has been wiped clean by the actions and words of Tony Abbott as he guides the Liberal Party, and hopefully not Australia ever, with his version of ‘Guided Democracy’, as you blithely and merrily support his any move and word.

    I guess you think that if you are on the ‘winning team’ it will be everyone else that suffers grief from Abbott and his goons and not you, should he win the next election.

    Which is just typical of the selfishness at the heart of ‘Modern Liberal’ philosophy.

  18. [Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    Where is everybody? I thought this was the main thread from late last night.

    Nothing much happening, is there?]

    That’s about it then, ML. Even you can’t get a rise from us about your “Labor Doom” lines. In Finns’s BISONS
    http://thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/

    There’s a great graph showing Australia’s position in relation to the rest of the world. I like the tracking movements from 2005. We really got a leap on the rest of them from 2009 onwards. Wonder how that happened? And we’ve gone further ahead under the Gillard-Swan ‘mismanagement’.

    If I read it correctly, around 2005-6 we were even trailing NZ. And Abbott’s heroes, Cameron’s Tories, are now further back than the Poms were in 2005.

  19. [When the Greens say we have no vision, what they really mean, is that we don’t have their vision. Too right we don’t. And as our 2700 new members have showed, the community wants more of our vison than theirs.]

    rummel:

    Long live Dastyari! Its ALP machine men like him that are going to give us Libs a very, very long term in government!

  20. [Christian Porter has secured a glittering array of personal references from business and conservative political heavyweights as he tries to win over preselectors in the Federal seat of Pearce ahead of tomorrow’s crucial selection meeting.

    Mr Porter this week circulated a 47-page Information for Delegates package, obtained by, which includes his resume, a picture of Mr Porter with wife Jennifer, press clippings from local, State and national newspapers lauding the former treasurer and attorney-general’s performance and a copy of his maiden speech to State Parliament.]

    I still don’t know why he’s not running for preselection in Tangney. You can’t tell me that Dennis Jensen is in any way viewed as a future minister or leader.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14230510/big-guns-add-to-porters-pitch-for-federal-seat/

  21. Mod Lib,
    Maxine McKew is fast dissasociating herself from the Labor Party. She is instead a fully-paid-up member of the Kevin Party.

  23. Bushfire Bill

    You missed my Q last night.

    With your excellent predictions with Ashby Lewis case do you think Lewis will produce a fake “Godwin Grant” type document during the week to show the judge there is someone else so he can protect their confidentiality?

    He has a whole week to do it

  24. This is not something Horsey & FB would ne happy with.

    [WHY THE GREENS ARE GUTLESS – Jul 13th, 2012 @ 02:30 am › Sandra Nori – Personally, I have never had a problem putting the Greens last.

    I had, and continue to have, a great deal of respect for genuine environmentalists – people like Bob Brown and many who support the Greens in a genuine belief that it is the right thing to do.

    I do not find myself in disagreement with many of their policies. I need to stress and make clear that what really offends me about the Greens is their political strategy and the means they use to maintain their electoral appeal.

    If you understand that strategy then all else about the Greens falls into place.

    I have seen the Greens up close in the NSW Parliament, in local government in inner-city Sydney and been opposed by them.

    I regard them as destructive opportunists, not interested in governing and fundamentally, gutless.

    Regardless of denials to the contrary, they never concern themselves with the exigencies and complexities of governing. No going to a budget committee and preparing a submission for the Greens. No explaining why the treasurer and or cabinet colleagues should cut an important portfolio’s budget to fund their project du jour.

    When you’re Green, money just grows on trees.]

    http://thehoopla.com.au/greens-gutless-luxury-brand/

    I have expressed previously, the Greens are no longer green, the protectors of the Environment which i support 100%. they are now just another political Party protecting their own power.

  26. My say

    What encourage the liberal party supporters to thrive on this site, is the fighting of labor supporters with each other and the greens

  27. my say,
    What makes my skin crawl about ‘Modern Liberals’ is they are proud to be selfish and heartless, and support to the hilt the man that epitomises it.

  29. C@tmomma

    [Maxine McKew is fast dissasociating herself from the Labor Party. She is instead a fully-paid-up member of the Kevin Party.]

    Are you serious? What a specious and pathetic comment.

  30. [my say,
    What makes my skin crawl about ‘Modern Liberals’ is they are proud to be selfish and heartless, and support to the hilt the man that epitomises it.]

    A little melodramatic don’t you think?

    You are going to lose the next election.

    The world is not going to end, you are just going to lose.

    Suck it up princesses!!!!! 🙂

  31. [C@tmomma
    Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 at 8:51 am | Permalink
    rummel,
    Game to predict another 60-40 Newspoll are we? ]

    yes, Abbott is out of the country for 10 days and the Libs always poll better when Abbotts hiding.

  32. [Regardless of denials to the contrary, they never concern themselves with the exigencies and complexities of governing. ]

    They don’t have to, as the Greens are not a party of government. They are little more than a protest movement when you really get down to it.

  33. [C@tmomma
    Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 at 8:51 am | Permalink
    rummel,
    Game to predict another 60-40 Newspoll are we?]

    He was a fraction of a percentage off actually (the margin of error range being >53 to >59 on TPP terms).

  34. [They are little more than a protest movement when you really get down to it.]

    I guess its good news for them that the left vote has a lot to protest about at the moment then!

  35. [Maxine McKew is fast dissasociating herself from the Labor Party. She is instead a fully-paid-up member of the Kevin Party.]

    Bitterness, especially after losing, never looked good in politics

  36. thats why labor are more comfortable in opposition because you cant protest from the government benches. though we have seen many valiant attempts

  37. I see Mod Lib and rummel are out of the blocks early this morning – 10 out of the first 34 posts. Oh well, could be worse I suppose. At least we don’t have to put up with TLMs crap.

  38. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/sympathy-for-the-devils-we-know-20120713-2212f.html#ixzz20Xm8d8Gs

    e sums: Christmas Island is about 175 nautical miles from the Java coast. That’s a tow of 35 hours. For all that time you would need to keep Defence Force personnel on board the thing, turning them over on four-hour watches, at serious risk to themselves from hostile passengers and crew. You are also taking that navy patrol boat out of the search for other refugee vessels. And if it’s at the end of its patrol, it might not have the fuel to do the tow and then get back home again anyway.

    Then we get to the Indonesians, who have stated explicitly they will not accept the boats back. Under the Abbott “policy”, we would be giving defiant offence to a friendly neighbour vital to our regional security and on whom we rely for co-operation in managing the refugee tide. Tough-talking Tony could visit Jakarta until he was black in the face – if they would have him – but he will not get around that one. As it is, the Indonesians are tired of Australia shouting at them about asylum seekers.

    There is one more thing. The international conventions for the safety of life at sea (SOLAS), require ships’ captains not to place people in harm’s way and, more specifically, to rescue them from danger. These are not airy-fairy notions but ironclad international and Australian law, built up over centuries of seafaring. These laws cannot be lightly set aside by some jerk in Canberra hollering down the phone to a naval commanding officer in the Indian Ocean, as Peter Reith’s office infamously did in the ”children overboard” affair.

  39. [I see Mod Lib and rummel are out of the blocks early this morning – 10 out of the first 34 posts.]

    GOSH! Less than one third of the posts.

    Clear bias I say!

    LOL 🙂

  40. [I regard them as destructive opportunists, not interested in governing and fundamentally, gutless.]

    seems a pretty good summary to myself, most preachers I know preach less than them too.

  41. I have the belief that people like mo-d lib, rummell and espe ially david wh
    Never

    click on to links

    So i put stuff here they hve no excuse,
    But of course the excuse is in the thinking ,, na he want do this
    Is it worth the risk

  43. Finns:

    Yes, she came across as very bitter. And from what I’ve heard of her since, her bitternness doesn’t seem to have abated

  45. MTBW
    You are are a member of the ALP. Correct?
    So, you support the leader of the ALP. If you don’t support the leader of the ALP, resign your membership and go to Evan/TLM land and snipe from there.
    Or you could just grow up.

  47. Well of to soccer with grandson for a little , just turned 6 hes doing well
    It was funny , but beautiful the fiirst morning , they did not know the rules
    Either side as its , done this way so they all lea rn,

    Last week, he wss so happy, kicked a goal, between the legs of the other side.
    I-m still smiling, it was a draw, of which our ,,,,,,,,,,’ said

    Oma thats ok we sre all happy. Bought tears to my eyes.

    ._———————————-

    Rummel i can only suggest you take your youngster , out sonewhere better than snipping
    About abbott, may be our days in the sun are numbered as we all face , working
    For less.

  48. [Mod Lib proves my point.

    by C@tmomma?wpmp_switcher=mobile]

    CTM: I prove many points, so there are plenty for you to share in some as well! 🙂

Comments Page 1 of 44
1 2 … 44

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *