Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
You’re all class, Ruawake.
[1. If Julia is still leading the ALP by 1st July 2012 Modlib pays $100 to Amnesty International? 2. If not, Rua pays $100 to (insert your charity)
Agreed?]
Mod, that chicken shit money. I have a bet with “always wRONg” Diog for $500 that PM Gillard will lead Labor into the 2013 election.
Ha ha ha It’s ABC, like taking candy from a baby
Mod Lib
Geez u r a loser 😆
Julia will lead Labor to the next election, and she will win.
That evidently won’t do anymore, Centre. To which charity will you donate how much money if she doesn’t?
If the PM leads to the next election,and feel confident she will, will buy myself a 1kg T Bone.
my say,
[One thing i did find hard later on was loving them was letting them go]
I understand. However, having been brought up by a highly controlling father, who still at nearly 93 has difficulty accepting that I’m an adult, I swore that I would never do that to my daughter.
So when she announced that she was going to have a gap year, and in Perth rather than home-town Melbourne, I supported her despite OH’s disapproval. And she has been in Perth for five and a half years now, with only brief visits home. The day after tomorrow she is off to Europe for a post-uni six months’ holiday. Then her new job – starting January – will be taking her all over the world.
Strangely, it’s only now that I’m getting all teary-eyed about her – but I am immensely proud of her, and I’m happy to accept that she has long since flown the nest.
William, I’ll give $500 to the homeless for men. 😛
Scrutineer Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 8:18 pm | Permalink
Many people coming here say its ridiculous this far out
Ipeople with more knowledge than i
Its even been said i ternalll polling tell a different story.
If u wantj to take pols as gospel i dont
They cann ot contact mobiles people are givig up their land li nes, we are very soon
Kids in share houses
Ect
Life is different now ,
http://www.textually.org/textblog/mt_search.php?IncludeBlogs=1&search=polls
<>
Political polls changing as cell phones proliferate and land lines disappear
Political polling in the U.S. is undergoing significant changes because of the growing popularity of cell phones and the diminishing number of Americans with traditional land lines, says Brian F. Schaffner, a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. PhysOrg.com reports.
He says the shift to cell phones means that traditional public opinion polls based on calling large random samples of the population that have been familiar since the 1950s really don’t exist anymore. “Polling is getting more difficult,” Schaffner says. “No matter how you do it, you can’t get a truly random sample.”
Read full article.
permalink (October 21st, 2010)
i rest my case
There we go again!
All negative!
From today, Australians start paying Julia Gillard’s carbon tax despite protests.
FFS!
As an earlier poster noted, Colin Barnett, while the Emperor, is not an entirely stupid politician.
He has seen the writing on the wall and is shifting ground to live with the CT.
He still claims he is not “philosophically disposed” to a CT, but is now making arguments about whether $26 a ton is the appropriate level.
He claims the ton rate could be halved “at this point in time”.
The significance of his utterances should not be under-rated as they tend to undermine the Abbott “we will get rid of the CT” theme.
What Barnett is essentially conceding is the tax is here to stay and to accommodate it accordingly.
I think we will see much more of this as time goes by.
It may well be that by Christmas – the workings of the CT are all up and running and becoming so cemented in that repealing same will be like trying to warm last week’s lunch.
Schnappi,
[If the PM leads to the next election,and feel confident she will, will buy myself a 1kg T Bone.]
Will you permit moi to be your shopper? I have the bestes ever butcher, and his T Bones are magnifique.
Besides, Kew to Brunswick is a mere bagatelle 😉
My say
The only rational way with polls these days is to average over the different methodologies.
Face to face Morgan
Phone – News, Nielsen, Morgan, Galaxy
Internet – Essential
understand. However, having been brought up by a highly controlling father, who still at nearly 93 has difficulty accepting that I’m an adult, I swore that I would never do that to my daughter.
Me to mother though
Never thought our son would settle here ,
But after 5 years travelling, working in hospitals in the uk
Bought a house here said it was an i vestment, but now lives in it
And is happy and settled
Hope your daughter returns,
Grand children ard an amazi ng gift
[daretotread
Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 8:36 pm | Permalink
My say
The only rational way with polls these days is to average over the different methodologies.
Face to face Morgan
Phone – News, Nielsen, Morgan, Galaxy
Internet – Essential]
OK, well lets look at the latest Coalition TPP from each:
F2F Morgan: 56.5
Newspoll: 55
Nielsen: 57
Phone M: 58
Galaxy: 56
Essential: 56
Hardly any need to average, they are all saying exactly the same thing!
And Channel 9 news gave a balanced report on the “wins” and loses come July 1 on Perth TV at 6 pm.
Sure, they noted electricity costs are due to go up 8% – on top of the 54% they have already gone up in Perth – which they did not mention, of which 3% or so (of the 8%) is due to the CT. Probably about right.
There was no effort to come out with the $500 a year more due to the CT stuff that seems to have popped up in the East.
And to be fair, the item did go on to outline the beneficial tax changes and spokespersons from various sectors who basically said they were a good idea.
No mention at all of any politician or political party.
I was somewhat amazed that such a relative balanced piece of news was persented.
Best TBones, in fact the best meat of any cut I’ve ever had was from the butchers in Corryong.
My Say,
I never said that current polls are indicative of election results in 12 months time. A lot can change until then. I am concerned about public opinion at this point in time.
Polls are the best tool we have to determine public opinion as it stands right now. They are not perfect but are the best tool we have.
You make a good point about mobile phone only voters creating problems for random sampling, although Essential uses an online panel which covers the mobile voters. Conversely, online panels may leave out older respondents who don’t use the net.
Anyone watching The Fog of War?
Someone earlier stated that there were many poor people who couldnt afford to turn on their heaters now because of the cost of electricity. I have been a volunteer for many years visiting poor people in their homes after they have requested assistance. I have never seen a case where they could not afford to turn on a heater, and certainly not lately when requests for assistance are at record lows. I have seen cases where a heater has broken down and could not be replaced. That is common. I have seen cases where electricity bills have gotten out of hand, but both power companies and state governments have organisations to handle that problem with repayment scheduling etc.
The carbon tax/price will not affect any of the poor. Those who struggle to budget now will probably continue to struggle. Those who are good AT budgeting will sail through with extra money in their pockets.
The outstanding cause of problems for the poor in our communities at the moment is the shortage of affordable housing. Fix that problem and you will have fixed about 75% of the problems of the poor. The cost of heating would not be in the top 5 or 6 problems facing charities.
PBers, especially those who have logged on since 5.00pm, have some/all!! of you sent the ACCCC complaint form about the Town and Country Hotel’s carbon price gouge.
Actions speak louder than words. That’s what so many of us have been legitimately criticising the Greens for.
Full details are at 1966. The link there is faulty so after reading 1966, go to 2009 for the link that works and directions to the online form.
Goodness, not the polls again!
So far out and so much time to go.
They are not that flash for Labor but then so what at this point?
Wrist slitting time is a week out from the 2013 election and conservatives leading 60-40. Even then, I would hesitate.
I will be astounded if this will be the case. Peak Liberal has passed as has bleak Labor. This all happened last winter.
Not so say that there will be a sudden upsurge but even the Liberal Nabobs have noted there will be a “tightening in the polls”.
Despite the best efforts of the tame-cat tories who come here, the Federal election is not a re-run of either NSW or Queensland, though, to be fair I understand why they think this is so.
I would like to think it is more a re-run of what happened in Victoria, but with Labor having enough umph by August-September of next year to win.
Time is what Labor needs and no needless stupidity.
just out of interest – did seeing what Mal Washer did last week change anyone’s opinion on what would’ve happened during the CPRS senate vote if the Liberal votes actually mattered???
u permit moi to be your shopper? I have the bestes ever butcher, and his T Bones are magnifique.
Ive always bought meat in bulk still do
Its arou d 7 50 killo with chicken fish eggs ect meat now lasts us 10 mo ths or more
When the children home 4 months ,
[Alan Kohler @AlanKohler
My dog just farted. What’s the carbon emissions tax on that Tony?]
Tricot @2160
I agree.
Small chinks in the conservo armour such as the Barnett one you have pointed out will continue to appear in unexpected places and at all levels of their parties, culminating in chinks eventually where it will really hurt Abbott, ie amongst federal Lieberal and National MPs.
Dee,
[Best TBones, in fact the best meat of any cut I’ve ever had was from the butchers in Corryong.]
I’ve never been to Corryong – now definitely on my list of places to visit.
However, a few times in the year I venture out of Melbourne into the country, and always visit a local butcher, and return with something delectable.
I still have fond memories of a butcher in Warrnambool who specified which farm (almost which paddock) from which the meat was sourced.
And you just don’t get that in a supermarket.
Centre wrote
[William, I’ll give $500 to the homeless for men]
One of my long time favourite charities:
http://www.vinnies.org.au/matthew-talbot-hostel-nsw
Electricity Prices have been rising or threatening too for ages.
The Question is, who should be responsible for this FUD?
[Doyley
Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 1:02 pm | Permalink
Cannot really see the “Patriots ” bit catching on in Australia]
Maybe if it was used in the Dr Johnson context:
[Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.]
My say,
My parents in law retired to Margate, and built themselves a dear little BV house on one of the properties that was devastated in the 1967 bushfires.
They were great gardeners, and had an ENORMOUS vegie garden, and lots of fruit trees.
They also had several large deep freezers, and would buy beef by the side, and whole lambs, from the local butcher.
All very yummy.
On one of my last visits there (a long time ago), I persuaded my MIL to let me cook. I bought some chicken – again, from the local butcher – and truly the memory of that meal still lingers. Delicious.
Price:
$700.00
Negotiable
Address: Whyalla SA
We have male and female centralian pythons pair for sale, will feed on anything. Priced low for a quick sale. Regrettful sale due by July 1.
Due to changed circumstances, python sale reluctantly withdrawn.
Fiona
[I still have fond memories of a butcher in Warrnambool who specified which farm (almost which paddock) from which the meat was sourced.]
Much like the Corryong butcher. And his pickled pork…..yum, yum…
My inlaws use to live there.
Fiona, Dee, MySay
Do the same ,usually buy enough to fill the freezer,besides whatever for a week.
Then get back to eating a variety of beef,lamb,chicken and fish,somedays get lazy and just eat toast and vegemite,toasted raisen bread,and anzacs
Dee,
Is it possible that your Corryong butcher may have been one of the migrants whose first Oz experience was in Bonegilla?
I know that at least three of Albury’s best butchers have their origins there!
Fiona
[Is it possible that your Corryong butcher may have been one of the migrants whose first Oz experience was in Bonegilla?]
I wouldn’t know!
Intresting article about PM
Julia Gillard@JuliaGillard
Want to Hang Out with the Prime Minister? http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/want-to-hang-out-with-the-prime-minister-heres-how-20120630-219g5.html TeamJG
Well I is off!
I’m absolutely brain dead tired.
Night! 🙂
gobsmacked at some of the comments made at the carbon price rallies… truly low rent kind of behaviour.
Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 9:00 pm | Permalink
My say,
My parents in law retired to Margate, and built themselves a dear little BV house on one of the properties that was devastated in the 1967 bushfires.
I had an aunt in van morey road margate
Long gone now.
These days its a suburb
Me to dee
But want to seesome french cou try side
Watching a police doco in amsterdam
Re “Fog of War”: not watching now as have seen a couple of times, but absolutely brilliant documentary – one of the greatest ever.
Australian Tea Party types
__________
Actually the lowbrow types shouting the appaling stuff about the PM .. and who she slept with recently….are very much like their US counterparts
It is of course the worst type of sexist/misoginist stuff…by men who don’t like women
in public life…
I saw a doco in the US on a group of Tea Party types and they had the most amazing views about Obama..the non-US-birth stuff. all .a socialist plot.etc….THE REDS in every sentence……they sounded a bit like Boerwar with his silly claims that the Greens are really Reds
The crowd today had the benefit of Jones and maddies like the Member for Indi,,,silly Sophie
I hope they all got a very bad cold in the Melbourne chill…wow…it was cold today here
It’s all a bit proto=fascist stuff
You make a good point about mobile phone only voters creating problems for random sampling, although Essential uses an online panel which covers the mobile voters. Conversely, online panels may leave out older respondents who don’t use the net scrutineer
Did u know you have to be registered to be polled
I saw nothing about mobile phones when i registerec
But how many down to esrth labor people would do so
We will ne ver know
Deblonay,
From what little I saw it was distinctly unpleasant.
And yes, uncharitable as it sounds (and is), I do hope that the cold in Melbourne today gives them at least a day or two of unpleasantness.
(Trying v hard to be nice … just having sympathy with their pore kiddeneys…)
My say,
[Did u know you have to be registered to be polled]
Only for some polls.
Deblonay,
How an MP can think it wise to be seen at these rallies is beyond me!
Wel,ll well now they are using he patriot word in the uk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jul/01/uk-migrants-patriotic-citizenship-test
osted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 9:40 pm | Permalink
My say,
Did u know you have to be registered to be polled
Only for some polls.
Yes the piece was about essentail polling company
deblonay @ 2192
Do you have any links to video of the loons?
although Essential uses an online panel