Corangamite has covered a shifting area around Colac 150 kilometres west of Melbourne since its creation at federation, its complexion changing somewhat with the absorption of the Geelong suburbs of South Barwon and Belmont in 1955. It was one of Labor’s two gains in Victoria when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007, giving Labor its first win in the seat since the Great Depression. In its current form the electorate includes the Geelong suburbs south-west of the Barwon River and the Great Ocean Road as far as Apollo Bay, together with rural areas to the west and north. The Geelong suburbs, which include Liberal-leaning Highton and marginal Belmont and Grovedale, contain a little over a third of the electorate’s voters, and are distinguished (along with Torquay) by a younger demographic profile and a preponderance of mortgage payers. Growth in Geelong, Torquay and the Bellarine Peninsula left the seat over quota at the redistribution to take effect at the next election, resulting in the transfer of most of the Bellarine Peninsula (accounting for about 5700 voters) to Corio. This has had a negligible impact on the Labor margin, which on Antony Green’s calculation goes from 0.4% to 0.3%.
Labor’s only wins in Corangamite prior to 2007 were in 1910, when future Prime Minister Jim Scullin became member for a term (he would return as member for the inner Melbourne seat of Yarra in 1922), and at the 1929 election when Scullin’s short-lived government came to power. The Country Party held the seat for one term from 1931, after which it was held by the United Australia Party and then the Liberal Party. The enlargement of parliament in 1984 cost the electorate its most conservative rural territory in the west, but it took another 23 years before Labor was able to realise its hopes of gaining the seat. It was assisted to this end by the “sea change” phenomenon, the ABC TV series of that name having been set in the electorate at Barwon Heads. This has drained about 10% from the Liberal primary vote in the Great Ocean Road towns since the early 1990s, with the Greens vote there burgeoning to 17% at the 2010 election.
Corangamite was held from 1984 to 2007 by Stewart McArthur, who to the dismay of some in the Liberal Party sought another term in 2007 at the age of 70. His Labor challenger was 31-year-old Darren Cheeseman, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union who won a hotly contested preselection over Peter McMullin, the Right-backed mayor of Geelong and candidate from 2004. Cheeseman went on to overwhelm McArthur’s 5.3% margin with a 6.2% swing that was evenly distributed throughout the electorate. Faced at the 2010 election by a fresh Liberal candidate in Sarah Henderson, a former state host of The 7.30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, Cheeseman was brought within 771 votes of defeat by a 0.4% swing that went slightly against the trend of a 1.0% statewide swing to Labor. Cheeseman went on to receive substantial publicity in February 2012 when he declared Labor would be “decimated” if Julia Gillard led it to the election, which set the ball rolling on Kevin Rudd’s unsuccessful leadership challenge a week later.
Sarah Henderson will again represent the Liberals at the next election after winning a fiercely contested struggle for Liberal preselection against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and former Peter Costello staffer who also sought preselection in 2010. Henderson’s backers reportedly included Tony Abbott and Michael Kroger, with Nockles having support from Peter Costello, Andrew Robb, Senators Arthur Sinodinos and Scott Ryan and Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer. In the event, Henderson won a surprisingly easy victory with an absolute majority on the first round.
my say @ 2090
I used that address and also copied the minister on it so they could see I had copied him.
I will also forward to a friend who works on the Minister’s staff.
Well in the scheme of things asking the greens any thing never gets u an answer
they even hang up on you in their office when u dont agree
So tyring and not worth it
Trivia: Victor Borge was born Børge Rosenbaum.
BH
[Gaffhook – do you think they are pushing for the case to be withdrawn so that the Libs will be protected as well as Lewis? If the full story comes out in Court it may not look good for Abbott and Pyne and I guess Murdoch will be unhappy with that.
If it’s withdrawn due to mental instability then Abbott and Pyne can lord it around that Slipper has not been cleared of impropriety.]
BH I think it is important not to marry the two issues though one is a result of the other.
The first issue is the allegations made by Ashby against Peter Slipper.
There is lots of evidence been produced by the commonwealth and Peter Slipper to have the charges/Allegations against the two defendants thrown out before they even have to defend it properly.
The second issue is that in all that evidence there are allegations about quite a few things but IMHO the most important bit is that both staffers are alleged to have fed extracts of Peter Slippers Diary to others including Lewis, Brough and possibly McArdle.
Shellbell and Marrickville Mauler may have a better handle on how important this may be but Barrie Cassidy mentioned on Insiders today that if diary extracts have been fed out then Criminal proceedings may take place.
I don’t think the Government and the Speaker would take too lightly to this state of affairs and it would depend how hard they would want to go.
I would hope they would send a message to anyone who has intentions of subverting the Government in this manner then porrige could well be the future staple diet.
They could decide to go all the way that there was some kind of conspiracy to bring down the Government. The only way in my mind that Lewis et al could defend that action would be if when presented the diary extracts, they reported it to AFP or ASIO or someone in authority saying that they were offered this information, that they are not entitled to, and they are of the opinion that the person was out to damage the government and the Speaker.
They did not take this course of action, but then went ahead with what they thought was a good story and used the information they were given in an attempt to have the Speaker thrown out before any court action.
I don’t know how they would be able to use a public interest defence either as it is now public knowledge that they were all conspiring with each other to get rid of the Speaker/Government. The public interest will now be that a conspiracy has been uncovered and we need to know all about it. Don’t wait for any MSM journos to investigate though.
I think they thought that Peter slipper would go quietly but it has all seriously backfired.
When the AFP, and Albo mentioned them in Parliament the other day, get their hands on it i am sure there will be lots more communications etc uncovered and there could be some quite serious repercussions especially for Lewis who seems to be the pivot in it all.
To me the jigsaw is all coming together and all that was designed to happen at the same time as the Thommo affair.
After they got their mole in position round Xmas Abbott started accusing The Government of nobbling Fair Work Australia for holding up the results of their enquiry etc. To me that was all projection as now in hindsight he actually had an insider/mole in the heirachy in the FWA as well and it all seems too kosher to me that the results all came out at the same time as the other Speaker stuff.
I also think they expected Thommo to crumble and resign with all the muck they were heaping on him but he also is made of sterner stuff and is rightly defending himself.
I have been following all the action on the Independant Aus web site and IMHO the Thommo thing is about to blow up bigtime in their faces as well.
Interesting times ahead, pass deck chair and the popcorn.
Gaffhook
Please don’t eat the popcorn. It contains huge amounts of transfats. Very bad for your heart. 😆
Bemused i think letters to tbe head of tne board should be more often
From people like your self.
We really need a change at the top
Even their programs have deteriorated , the british show we new and loved
Gone
Silly shows lke randling catering for all under 45 so it seems
When really do that age group turn iff master chef or the block.
A warning to any business that allows Abbott to stand on their shop floor to push his lies over the next few weeks – beware of what you are leaving yourself open too – if he claims that your prices will rise because of pricing carbon then the spotlight will be on you. Any lie or gross exaggeration that he utters could result in your business being investigated by the ACCC for possible price gouging. In addition your business will appear uncompetitive against similar businesses. Remember, he will use you to suit his politics while leaving you for dead as his caravan of lies moves on the next doorstop.
rishane @ 3098
Of course the existence of ‘THE LIE’ relies entirely on acceptance that it is a tax. Without that, the ‘lie’ meme collapses.
That is why the Govt should put in a concerted effort to attack the underlying artifice that it is a ‘TAX’ when it is not. This is of course not helped by that foolish few words by the PM.
[Poll predictions tonight?]
Who is polling tonight? Newspoll is next week.
so, is there a Nielsen tonight?
[That is why the Govt should put in a concerted effort to attack the underlying artifice that it is a ‘TAX’ when it is not. This is of course not helped by that foolish few words by the PM.]
She probably shouldn’t have said that, but there is an element of hindsight involved, not to mention it being shameful that that one sentence is enough to paint her as a liar when Abbott lies whenever his mouth is open. And as you know, the government has consistently been referring to it as carbon pricing, but it just doesn’t get reported that way.
[Deed done.]
You’re a corker, thanks Ducky. The more we query suss increases the more we keep them honest. I don’t mind an increase but not an inflated one.
Rex Douglas
Nielsen usually publishes their poll a week or so into the month.
A Quarterly Newspoll of April to June should be due though
I’ve thought about this a bit since this morning.
I think the ALP should’ve accepted the Coalition’s policy on asylum seekers, but stress Malcolm Turnbull’s point that if it doesn’t work, then immediately advocate for Malaysia and emphasise the fact that Turnbull was the one who suggested it in the parliament. In other words give all the credit to Turnbull and none of it to Abbott
Might be a wacky idea, but if the issue is political face and giving Abbott victory, why not shit stir?
Channel 7 News Break
Average Australian household electricity bill to rise by $500 per year!
[I think the ALP should’ve accepted the Coalition’s policy on asylum seekers, but stress Malcolm Turnbull’s point that if it doesn’t work, then immediately advocate for Malaysia and emphasise the fact that Turnbull was the one who suggested it in the parliament. In other words give all the credit to Turnbull and none of it to Abbott
Might be a wacky idea, but if the issue is political face and giving Abbott victory, why not shit stir?]
Abbott would probably still be given the ‘victory’ anyway, just because he’s Tony Abbott.
rishane
Not if you repeatedly say the words Malcolm Turnbull
[Abbott would probably still be given the ‘victory’ anyway, just because he’s Tony Abbott.]
It would further enforce the idea with help from the MSM that Rabbott is running the country from opposition.
spur212
I think the govt will ultimately have to implement the Coalitions illogical AS policy for 6 months or so just to get it off the table.
Wouldn’t matter if Her Majesty the Queen advised Abbott to allow Malaysia, he will not budge.
Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
Channel 7 News Break Average Australian household electricity bill to rise by $500 per year!
The question should be
What is the components
Making up this
Jumping the , what ever
The committes report
First
Giving in to abbott re nuaru never
Its a dreadful place
Gaffhook – thanks for your thoughts on Ashby/Slipper and, of course, I shouldn’t have fused the 2 issues. The whole thing does make the attempt to bring down the Rudd Govt. via Grech look like kindy stuff.
Spurr why do u have this thing with polls
The last Nielsen Poll was published on the first Monday of June (4th) with fieldwork commencing on 31 May.
So its possible that a Nielsen poll comes out tonight.
my say #2121
The Green Conservative cartel will dismiss the Housten report for their own political reasons.
I can’t see any other pathway to getting to the preferred position of having a proper deterrent (Malaysia) to stop deaths by drowning.
This lie thing , it did not happen things changec re i derpenants originally tbe ets
But dont go there again
Whats gets me Is never ever the G S T
the same jouralist then well some
Was howard called out for that
When you check http://www.yourcarbonprice.com.au/ you will see that they expect carbon tax to increase Melbourne household expenses by $6 per week or $300 per year, maybe Channel 7 failed Grade 3 arithmetic
Rex
[Wouldn’t matter if Her Majesty the Queen advised Abbott to allow Malaysia, he will not budge.]
Just because he won’t budge doesn’t mean you give the tantrum throwing spoilt brat what he wants.
Still a dreadfull
May be we need to advertise in , i
Indonesia what happens in leaky boats
DEE
HERE HERE A THOUSAND TIMES
Now that would as bad as the greens or worse
Has any Media outlet tabulated the electricity price rises for the past financial year? I would not be surprised if they were not greater than the forecasts for next year.
Dee
purely a means to an end
Hope mr combet hears about the tv channels
Dee,
[Just because he won’t budge doesn’t mean you give the tantrum throwing spoilt brat what he wants.]
Sometimes, just sometimes, I wish that I’d been in charge of Mr Abbott’s upbringing.
It worked a treat with my daughter – we even stayed in more or less polite communication during the worst of adolescence – and she is now an utter delight.
Essentially, I was never afraid to say “No” to her. For some reason, I doubt if Mr Abbott’s parents (and Kathy Jackson’s, for that matter) were prepared to do that.
It’s fascinating that so many parents are afraid about “losing their child’s love” whereas the evidence from research is pretty conclusive. One heartrending statement I recall from one particular paper is wtte:
[My parents don’t really love me – they never say “No”.]
[rishane
Not if you repeatedly say the words Malcolm Turnbull]
Doubt it’d matter.
Saw on 24, that electricity prices are different for all states,Victoria was $3 something,another state was $6 something,Adelaide I think was under $2
If a Nielsen poll comes out tonight. it would be interesting to see what the Labor primary vote is pegged at. Last Nielsen poll had the Labor primary vote at 26% which was a bit low compared to other polls at the time.
[Channel 7 News Break
Average Australian household electricity bill to rise by $500 per year!]
How did they work that out? what does the average household spend on electricity per year?
x Douglas Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 7:52 pm | Permalink
my say #2121
The Green Conservative cartel will dismiss the Housten report for their own political reasons.
I can’t see any other pathway to getting to the preferred position of having a proper deterrent (Malaysia) to stop deaths by drowning.
Rex if they do they do,
the gov have done their best
Let it be on the head of those that play politics.
Also the people that get in the boats should stop
Think , i am as annoyed with them also
They don t get it
I think we are a little scared to say that,
But they have to take some responsibi,ity for not thinking throu gh what could happen
Do they u derstand how far christmas is. Is, i understand their reasons of course
We need more diplomatic staff surley
We should have people there , telling them not to risk it .
Does that sound unfare not sure
No answers really human nature will make people do what they think they must
We are not in their shoes i suppose
[Damn right but after last week you and your party have ended up in the same predicament as this horse. The same ending ? Maybe not.]
Poroti, methinks there is a song called:
What have they done to my Horsey, Ma
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKN6lYU5bZ4
BTW: Is that SHY singin’ ?
Could you imagine this being rolled out in the Land of the Free?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-01/french-drivers-forced-to-carry-breathalysers/4103314
[Mod Lib
Posted Tuesday, February 8, 2011 at 8:54 pm | Permalink
ruawake Posted Tuesday, February 8, 2011 at 8:41 pm | Permalink I am happy to have a friendly bet NEITHER of these two leaders will be there in 2012!
OK I’m on, Gillard will be there in 2012, name your bet, name the charity it goes to
Well this may be illegal but lets say:
1. If Julia is still leading the ALP by 1st July 2012 Modlib pays $100 to Amnesty International? 2. If not, Rua pays $100 to (insert your charity)
Agreed?
We will have to take our own words on this, but I will live up to my end.
ruawake
Posted Tuesday, February 8, 2011 at 8:57 pm | Permalink
If not, Rua pays $100 to (insert your charity)
The Leukaemia Foundation.]
Rua:
Congratulations! You officially win our bet.
I had a look back at the actual conditions and it seems I pay Amnesty, not the Leukaemia foundation.
Can you confirm this is right please?
peg
the Greens policy is to take more refugees from Indonesia, apparently at the expense of Sudanese and Somalians.
Which makes your slur about the Chin – and indeed, I can think of few things more contemptible than suggesting that because these people are Chrisitan, that somehow makes us racist to take them – a little ironic.
Your party is openly pushing to take white people ahead of black people.
[If a Nielsen poll comes out tonight. it would be interesting to see what the Labor primary vote is pegged at. Last Nielsen poll had the Labor primary vote at 26% which was a bit low compared to other polls at the time.]
I think it will be higher than 26, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is still below 30 because asylum seekers have been in the news so much over the last week and a half.
That always damages Labor’s vote.
Posted Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 8:00 pm | Permalink
Fiona
Children really do like rules in the home
They know where they stand
?
One thing i did find hard later on was loving them was letting them go
Nnothing will reflect in polls yet
Who cares about neilsen
Goodness sake get over polls
Yay, the BISONs are running wild at NatGeo Wild!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seasprite
[How did they work that out? what does the average household spend on electricity per year?]
It was a newsflash.
Have no idea how it was worked out.
My Say,
Isn’t this site about polls???
Mod Lib
Pay whoever you like. I assumed the loser would pay the winners charity but if you wish to play silly buggers do what you want.
I don’t really care.